Satellite view of Hurricane Ian as it approached Southwest Florida on September 28, 2022.

Hurricane Ian Through the Eyes of Smarter Data

A timeline and analysis of impacts from the memorable storm in Florida.

Hurricane Ian hit southwest and central Florida in late September 2022, following a unique and eerie mid-season pause in tropical activity over the Atlantic basin. The category 4 storm produced destructive winds up to 128 mph over land, a storm surge of 12 to 18 feet 1  that spread several miles inland, and extreme flooding from historical rainfall in a swath across the entire peninsula.

Ian tied the record for the fifth-strongest hurricane on record to strike the United States 2  and was the strongest hurricane to hit Florida since Michael in 2018. It was also tied with Charley (2004) and the Florida Keys Hurricane (1919) as the fourth strongest hurricane (by wind) to hit Florida.

Storm Timeline

The tropical wave that would spawn Hurricane Ian was trending on social media nearly two weeks before landfall. It was known to meteorologists at Invest 98L. And the forecast models were setting off alarm bells with many.

The following is a chronological account of Hurricane Ian with official updates from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), satellite and radar imagery from the National Weather Service (NWS), and model data from Baron Weather.

Area of Interest Indentified (Invest 98L)

Monday, September 19 at 2:00 pm EDT

Tropical Depression Nine (TD9) Forms

Friday, September 23 at 5 am AST

Tropical Storm Ian Forms

Friday, September 23 at 11 pm AST

Ian is Slow to Organize

Saturday, September 24 (all day)

First Baron Model Run on Ian

Sunday, September 25 at 12 pm ADT

Ian Becomes a Hurricane

Monday, September 26 at 5 am ET

Rapid Intensification is Underway

Monday, September 26 at 5 pm ET

Ian Becomes a Major Hurricane

Tuesday, September 27 at 2:30 am ET

Subtle Shift East of Track

Tuesday, September 27 at 11 am ET

Ian Dubbed "Extremely Dangerous"

Wednesday, September 28 at 5 am ET

Landfall and Beyond

Wednesday, September 28 at 3 pm ET

Area of Interest Indentified (Invest 98L)

Monday, September 19 at 2:00 pm EDT

The first tropical outlook from the NHC revealed the area of interest that would eventually become Hurricane Ian over the central Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical Depression Nine (TD9) Forms

Friday, September 23 at 5 am AST

Tropical Depression Nine (TD9) formed in the eastern Caribbean Sea. The first advisory from the NHC projected it to become a hurricane and hit Southwest Florida five days later.

Tropical Storm Ian Forms

Friday, September 23 at 11 pm AST

TD9 became better organized throughout the day and was classified as Tropical Storm Ian by 11 pm AST that same night. The updated forecast called for Ian to become a major hurricane before landfall on Sep. 28.

However, an unusual amount of uncertainty loomed over its eventual path of Ian. For example, a collection of model runs on this date showed a spread of over 800 miles on where Ian might track as it moved into the Gulf of Mexico.

Ian is Slow to Organize

Saturday, September 24 (all day)

Tropical Storm Ian struggled to organize for a few hours, fighting off the impeding influences of dry air and moderate wind shear. Several vorticity maximums were also noted, prompting some doubt about the storm's eventual fate.

The official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center was adjusted west toward the Florida Panhandle to account for the uncertainty in Ian's structure and conflicting model information.

First Baron Model Run on Ian

Sunday, September 25 at 12 pm ADT

The exclusive Baron model  first projected  Ian would come ashore near Port Charlotte, FL in three days as a major hurricane. Every model run thereafter was within 28 miles of eventual landfall.

Note: The animation begins on September 26 when the center of Ian was within the domain of the higher-resolution data.

Ian Becomes a Hurricane

Monday, September 26 at 5 am ET

Ian became the fourth hurricane of the 2022 season, with rapid intensification expected to continue as it crossed the western side of Cuba. The  Baron Hurricane Index  model showed "very favorable" conditions along Ian's path over the next 24 hours.

A hurricane watch was issued for the west coast of Florida, including Tampa Bay. A storm surge watch was extended north, now stretching from the Florida Keys to the Nature Coast.

Rapid Intensification is Underway

Monday, September 26 at 5 pm ET

Hurricane Ian rapidly intensified as it approached western Cuba, with wind speeds increasing by 55 mph and a pressure drop of 30 mb in just 24 hours 3 ! The hurricane and storm surge watch for the west coast of Florida were upgraded to warnings.

The official forecast track from the NHC was narrowing in on a landfall near the Tampa Bay metro area, with forecasters warning of a "life-threatening" storm surge as far south as Fort Myers.

Ian Becomes a Major Hurricane

Tuesday, September 27 at 2:30 am ET

In a special update, the NHC said Ian's wind speeds increased to 115 mph just before making landfall over western Cuba. Satellite imagery shows deeper convection (darker reds and grey colors) becoming much more concentric and a definitive eye formed. It was now clear that Ian would become a dangerous hurricane with potentially "catastrophic" damage to parts of Florida.

Subtle Shift East of Track

Tuesday, September 27 at 11 am ET

Hurricane Ian only weakened slightly while moving over western Cuba, and the storm wasted no time resuming intensification over the warm waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The bigger story over Cuba was Ian's slight jog to the right of the official forecast track.

As of 11 am on Tuesday, satellite data suggested the center of Ian was about 25 miles east of where it was expected to be from the previous advisory. This seemingly small detail would have significant implications regarding impacts in Southwest Florida due to the uniquely  oblique angle  of the storm's approach.

Ian Dubbed "Extremely Dangerous"

Wednesday, September 28 at 5 am ET

Hurricane hunters found Ian had intensified further, with maximum sustained winds increasing to 140 mph. Those winds were reported to be as high as 155 mph by 7 am ET as Ian neared the coast of Southwest Florida. This placed Ian just shy of "category 5" status. The storm had also grown in size, with a tropical storm force wind field now 350 miles wide.

Landfall and Beyond

Wednesday, September 28 at 3 pm ET

Hurricane Ian came ashore new Cayo Casta at 3:05 pm ET, with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph and a minimum central pressure of 940 mb 3 .

Ian slowed down and weakened over land, eventually being downgraded to a tropical storm as it exited the east coast of Florida Thursday morning.


Model Analysis

Forecast models that are usually trustworthy showed conflicting outcomes just two days before landfall. The flagship model for the U.S. predicted landfall in the Tampa Bay region, and modeling developed in Europe also errored on the northwest side of the eventual track.

The exclusive Baron model was consistent in showing Hurricane Ian striking Southwest Florida. All runs of the high-resolution pressure data had minimums within 28 miles and 6 hours of where and when Hurricane Ian first struck, beginning 80 hours before landfall.

Rainfall projections from the Baron model were also consistent in showing a swath of potentially 12 to 20 inches of rain just northwest of the storm's center. And since the track forecast was accurate, the rainfall projections also came true.

Other credible forecast models eventually narrowed in on a landfall location just north of Fort Myers. However, very few had the same run-to-run consistency over several days as the Baron model did.


Max Wind Speeds

Hurricane Ian had an eye that was over 30 miles wide at landfall. Extreme winds spread several miles inland across portions of Lee and Charlotte counties.

The interactive map below represents estimates of maximum winds based on nearest reports, high-resolution modeling, and radar data. Clicking or tapping on the map will reveal the highest speeds observed near that location.

Hurricane Ian - Max Wind Speed

Storm Surge

The Gulf of Mexico surged inland and rose more than 12 feet above normally dry ground near or just southeast of where Hurricane Ian came ashore. Preliminary data from USGS gauges included high water marks of 13.2 feet at Fort Myers Beach and 10.2 feet in Naples 1 . Water levels along the Caloosahatchee River in downtown Fort Myers rose as high as 7.4 feet.

The National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center will release an official report in the next few months after completing their forensic research on the inundation levels across Southwest Florida from Hurricane Ian.


Historic Rainfall & Flooding

Historic rainfall fell across Florida from Hurricane Ian. The interactive map below shows rainfall estimates based on accumulation data from high-resolution radars, composited by Baron Weather. You can click or tap on a specific location to view amounts.

Hurricane Ian - Rainfall Accumulation

The highest rainfall accumulations were observed in Volusia County (northeast of Orlando), where more than 20 inches were reported 4 . Other notable numbers came from Orange and Seminole counties (15 to 19 inches), and Sarasota, Hardee, Manatee and Desoto counties (10 to 14 inches).


Power Outages

Ian's powerful winds, surge, and flooding significantly disrupted the power grid across much of the Florida peninsula. At the height of the storm, more than 4 million 5  customers in Florida were in the dark.

The animated maps below are snapshots of outage data by county as Hurricane Ian as the storm was approaching the coast (left) on September 28, then moving across the state later that day (right).

Animations of power outage data, as seen in the Baron Lynx software platform.


Damage from Hurricane Ian

A video produced by the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service recaps the views from space on the destruction left behind by Hurricane Ian.

Hurricane Ian's Path of Destruction

Early indications are that Hurricane Ian was the costliest natural disaster in 2022 and the second costliest storm on record 6 . Insurance estimates are projected to land between $50 billion and $65 billion. The death toll from Ian in Florida was 148, with most of those deaths occurring from storm surge flooding or attempts to evacuate at the last minute. It was the deadliest hurricane to hit the U.S. in the past 20 years.

Tropical Weather Resources from Baron

Most disruptions to business operations from tropical storms or hurricanes can be avoided, or at the very least planned for. However, not all weather and forecast data are created the same. It pays to use smarter data from a company that's been through a storm or two.

We have a team of experts ready to help you plan ahead for next season, make confident decisions, and hopefully avoid costly mistakes if a storm threatens. We've listed a few resources below.

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Plan ahead and make smarter decisions well ahead of the storm with  this handy decision-maker's guide .

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Sign-up for a free trial of our data. You can take our  robust API  for a test drive or click around in the  Baron Threat Net  web app.

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