Hurricane Ian Through the Eyes of Smarter Data
A timeline and analysis of impacts from the memorable storm in Florida.
Hurricane Ian hit southwest and central Florida in late September 2022, following a unique and eerie mid-season pause in tropical activity over the Atlantic basin. The category 4 storm produced destructive winds up to 128 mph over land, a storm surge of 12 to 18 feet 1 that spread several miles inland, and extreme flooding from historical rainfall in a swath across the entire peninsula.
Ian tied the record for the fifth-strongest hurricane on record to strike the United States 2 and was the strongest hurricane to hit Florida since Michael in 2018. It was also tied with Charley (2004) and the Florida Keys Hurricane (1919) as the fourth strongest hurricane (by wind) to hit Florida.
Storm Timeline
The tropical wave that would spawn Hurricane Ian was trending on social media nearly two weeks before landfall. It was known to meteorologists at Invest 98L. And the forecast models were setting off alarm bells with many.
The following is a chronological account of Hurricane Ian with official updates from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), satellite and radar imagery from the National Weather Service (NWS), and model data from Baron Weather.
Area of Interest Indentified (Invest 98L)
Monday, September 19 at 2:00 pm EDT
Tropical Depression Nine (TD9) Forms
Friday, September 23 at 5 am AST
Tropical Storm Ian Forms
Friday, September 23 at 11 pm AST
Ian is Slow to Organize
Saturday, September 24 (all day)
First Baron Model Run on Ian
Sunday, September 25 at 12 pm ADT
Ian Becomes a Hurricane
Monday, September 26 at 5 am ET
Rapid Intensification is Underway
Monday, September 26 at 5 pm ET
Ian Becomes a Major Hurricane
Tuesday, September 27 at 2:30 am ET
Subtle Shift East of Track
Tuesday, September 27 at 11 am ET
Ian Dubbed "Extremely Dangerous"
Wednesday, September 28 at 5 am ET
Landfall and Beyond
Wednesday, September 28 at 3 pm ET
Model Analysis
Forecast models that are usually trustworthy showed conflicting outcomes just two days before landfall. The flagship model for the U.S. predicted landfall in the Tampa Bay region, and modeling developed in Europe also errored on the northwest side of the eventual track.
The exclusive Baron model was consistent in showing Hurricane Ian striking Southwest Florida. All runs of the high-resolution pressure data had minimums within 28 miles and 6 hours of where and when Hurricane Ian first struck, beginning 80 hours before landfall.
Rainfall projections from the Baron model were also consistent in showing a swath of potentially 12 to 20 inches of rain just northwest of the storm's center. And since the track forecast was accurate, the rainfall projections also came true.
Other credible forecast models eventually narrowed in on a landfall location just north of Fort Myers. However, very few had the same run-to-run consistency over several days as the Baron model did.
Max Wind Speeds
Hurricane Ian had an eye that was over 30 miles wide at landfall. Extreme winds spread several miles inland across portions of Lee and Charlotte counties.
The interactive map below represents estimates of maximum winds based on nearest reports, high-resolution modeling, and radar data. Clicking or tapping on the map will reveal the highest speeds observed near that location.
Storm Surge
The Gulf of Mexico surged inland and rose more than 12 feet above normally dry ground near or just southeast of where Hurricane Ian came ashore. Preliminary data from USGS gauges included high water marks of 13.2 feet at Fort Myers Beach and 10.2 feet in Naples 1 . Water levels along the Caloosahatchee River in downtown Fort Myers rose as high as 7.4 feet.
The National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center will release an official report in the next few months after completing their forensic research on the inundation levels across Southwest Florida from Hurricane Ian.
Historic Rainfall & Flooding
Historic rainfall fell across Florida from Hurricane Ian. The interactive map below shows rainfall estimates based on accumulation data from high-resolution radars, composited by Baron Weather. You can click or tap on a specific location to view amounts.
The highest rainfall accumulations were observed in Volusia County (northeast of Orlando), where more than 20 inches were reported 4 . Other notable numbers came from Orange and Seminole counties (15 to 19 inches), and Sarasota, Hardee, Manatee and Desoto counties (10 to 14 inches).
Power Outages
Ian's powerful winds, surge, and flooding significantly disrupted the power grid across much of the Florida peninsula. At the height of the storm, more than 4 million 5 customers in Florida were in the dark.
The animated maps below are snapshots of outage data by county as Hurricane Ian as the storm was approaching the coast (left) on September 28, then moving across the state later that day (right).
Damage from Hurricane Ian
A video produced by the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service recaps the views from space on the destruction left behind by Hurricane Ian.
Hurricane Ian's Path of Destruction
Early indications are that Hurricane Ian was the costliest natural disaster in 2022 and the second costliest storm on record 6 . Insurance estimates are projected to land between $50 billion and $65 billion. The death toll from Ian in Florida was 148, with most of those deaths occurring from storm surge flooding or attempts to evacuate at the last minute. It was the deadliest hurricane to hit the U.S. in the past 20 years.
Tropical Weather Resources from Baron
Most disruptions to business operations from tropical storms or hurricanes can be avoided, or at the very least planned for. However, not all weather and forecast data are created the same. It pays to use smarter data from a company that's been through a storm or two.
We have a team of experts ready to help you plan ahead for next season, make confident decisions, and hopefully avoid costly mistakes if a storm threatens. We've listed a few resources below.
Download our Guide
Plan ahead and make smarter decisions well ahead of the storm with this handy decision-maker's guide .
Sign up for a Free Trial
Sign-up for a free trial of our data. You can take our robust API for a test drive or click around in the Baron Threat Net web app.
Talk to an Expert
Let us know when you're ready to discuss your weather needs and let us help you make better decisions with smarter data.