Arctic Rivers Project
Connecting Indigenous knowledge and western science to strengthen collective understanding of the changing Arctic
The Arctic is the fastest warming region on Earth.
The changing climate is altering Arctic hydrology and disproportionately affecting Indigenous communities. Increased temperatures are impacting snowmelt and river flow patterns, and in turn, affecting aquatic ecosystems that communities depend upon.
Many Indigenous communities rely on rivers for transportation and fish. Rivers are essential for subsistence. The impacts of the changing climate on Arctic communities are uncertain.
The goal of the Arctic Rivers Project is to improve the overall understanding of the impact of climate change on Arctic ecosystems and communities by connecting Indigenous knowledge and western science .
Overview and Objectives
The Arctic Rivers Project will weave together Indigenous knowledges and methods from western science such as monitoring and the modeling of climate, rivers (flows, temperature, ice), and fish to improve understanding of how Arctic rivers, ice transportation corridors, fish, and communities might be impacted by and adapt to climate change.
The project began in 2020 and will run until the end of 2024. The project is funded by the National Science Foundation’s Navigating the New Arctic Program.
The following tasks have been identified as necessary to meet the project's goals:
Observation
Expand geochemistry and temperature monitoring to assess climate and stream variation
Climate Modeling
Develop future climate scenarios with various climate models to assess changes in Arctic hydrology
Model Rivers and Fish
Use future climate models and simulated river temperatures to assess potential impacts on Arctic fish species
Co-Produced Storylines
Improve understanding of river ice and fish habitat vulnerabilities through collaboration with Indigenous Alaskan and First Nation communities, researchers and resource managers
Indigenous Knowledge
"Indigenous knowledge is a systematic way of thinking applied to phenomena across biological, physical, cultural, and spiritual systems. It includes insights based on evidence acquired through direct and long-term experiences and extensive and multigenerational observations, lessons and skills. It has developed over millennia and is still developing in a living process, including knowledge acquired today and in the future, and it is passed on from generation to generation," -Inuit Circumpolar Council
While exact boundaries for language groups do not exist, this map depicts dominant traditional languages across different regions of the Arctic. Information provided by the Alaska Native Language Preservation & Advisory Council. The study area for the Arctic Rivers Project is outlined in black.
The Arctic is a culturally diverse place. The study area is home to over 100 tribal councils and First Nations across Alaska and Canada and encompasses more than 15 ethnolinguistic groups. With over 150 communities in the study area, the lines between cultures are often blurred and can be difficult to define geographically. When considering Indigenous knowledge, it must be acknowledged that each community offers a different perspective stemming from generations upon generations of different traditions and experiences. Every community will feel the impacts of climate change differently.
Indigenous Advisory Council
The Indigenous Advisory Council was formed at the start of the project to oversee and assist researchers in reaching the project’s goal of connecting Indigenous knowledge and western science. The Indigenous Advisory Council is currently made up of ten Indigenous community leaders and regional representatives from across the project’s study domain. Council members serve a two year term after which they can reapply or be replaced by another community member. Advisory Council members are selected by the project team and compensated for their participation in meetings.

Alestine Andre

Emily Murray

Evelynn Combs

Jenessa Tlen

Michael Williams

Serena Fitka

Victoria Buschman

Elizabeth Moses

Charles Prince

Patricia Salmon
Climate in Context
Weather vs. Climate
Weather is the short-term weather conditions. Climate is the average weather conditions extended over a long period of time in a particular area (e.g. average temperature, precipitation, wind, etc.). The key difference between climate and weather is the measure of time ( NASA, 2017 ). Weather can be thought of as what you are wearing today, whereas climate is what is in your closet.
Thus, climate change is a long-term change in the usual weather. Changes in the distance between the Earth and the Sun have caused changes in Earth’s climate in the past, from much warmer to much cooler (e.g. Ice Age). These natural variations in the Earth's climate occur over hundreds to thousands of years.
Essentially all scientists support the theory that changes in today’s climate are a result of human activity. Heating your home and driving a car requires energy, and most of this energy is produced from fossil fuels, such as coal and gas. Burning fossil fuels releases carbon dioxide, a powerful greenhouse gas. Greenhouse gases trap heat in the earth's atmosphere.
Vehicles are one source of the greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide (Source: Jacob Frank, NPS)
Recent climate changes are caused by rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that trap heat and as a result, warm the atmosphere ( IPCC, 2021 ). An increase in atmospheric temperature has led to a chain reaction of changes across the world, including more frequent and drastic weather conditions (e.g. droughts, flooding, wildfires), changes in temperature, and increased ocean levels (as a result of increased ice and glacier melt).
Frequency and intensity of wildfires is effected by climate change. This image shows firefighters working a fire in New Mexico (Source: Rachel Loehman, USGS Alaska Science Center)
Climate Change in the Arctic
- The Arctic is warming at twice the global rate
- Warmer ocean and freshwater temperatures are affecting aquatic ecosystems and coastal communities
- Decreases in Arctic sea ice extent and thickness resulting in coastal and river bank erosion
- Continuing permafrost thaw leading to increased risk of threatening impacts on communities and ecosystems
- Reduced snow cover extent
- The dominant precipitation in the future is expected to be rainfall
Erosion along Alaska's coast threatens cultural and historical sites as well as modern structures (Source: USGS)
Expanding Observations
Climate change is transforming the hydrology of the Arctic.
To track hydrologic changes, project collaborators have installed water quality sensors in important rivers within the study area. Combined with streamflow gages hosted by the USGS and the Water Survey of Canada, scientists can track how the rivers are changing over time and predict subsequent changes in fish populations and river ice.
The research team is collaborating with the Yukon River Inter-Tribal Watershed Council and Indigenous communities across the study area to install sensors where data has previously not been collected.
The map to the right displays sensors installed in 2021 by the Yukon River Inter-Tribal Watershed Council and USGS hydrologists
The water quality sensors measure water conductivity and temperature of the river. Conductivity is the measure of how easily an electric current can be carried through the water. It is affected by the presence of dissolved inorganic solids like nitrate, calcium, sodium, or iron.
Temperature can also influence conductivity. Warmer water is more conductive than cold water. High conductivity can be an indicator that the water has been contaminated with solids that might be harmful for both humans and animals.
Deploying water sensors in the Yukon river near Fort Yukon (Source: Edda Mutter, YRITWC)
Arctic communities are especially concerned that the rivers are becoming too warm for the fish populations that support the economy and subsistence of many. Monitoring changes in the rivers will help inform different stakeholders and interests from fishermen to scientists designing regional climate models.
The Delta river rushing through the Alaska Range in Southcentral Alaska (Source: Bureau of Land Management)
The Yukon River Inter-Tribal Watershed Council is a key actor working to install sensors with the help of community environmental professionals. During the summer of 2021, the Yukon River Inter-Tribal Watershed Council helped install 12 sensors in communities across Alaska and the Yukon River Basin. Photos of sensor deployment from the 2021 field season were provided by Edda Mutter with the YRITWC.
Climate Modeling
A key tool to help inform decisions in response to climate change is climate models that estimate the climatic and environmental conditions under different warming scenarios. Assessing potential climate scenarios will assist resource managers and communities in preparing for changes in the Arctic. Researchers from the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the University of Colorado (CU) Boulder are working to produce climate models for the Arctic Rivers Project.
What is a climate model?
A climate model is a numerical representation of Earth's climate system based on the laws of physics and the known relationships that govern these systems. It replicates aspects of the climate like large-scale patterns of atmospheric circulation, temperature and precipitation. Modern models are often focused on greenhouse gas concentrations and produce scenarios based on adjustments in the emissions of these gases by human activities.
Advanced models, like the one used by this project, add elements like atmospheric chemistry, land and sea ice, biogeochemical cycles, and land surface interactions.
An example of a climate model, showing possible future temperatures across Alaska and the Yukon, produced by the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Reference period mean annual 2 m air temperature (measured in Kelvin) for (a) daily average (Tavg), (b) daily maximum (Tmax), and (c) daily minimum (Tmin) with future relative to reference change in mean annual 2 m air temperature (K) for (d) daily average (ΔTavg), (e) daily maximum (ΔTmax), and (f) daily minimum (ΔTmin). Lines of latitude and longitude are in degrees North and East. ( Newman et al, 2021 )
Climate models are typically represented on large global scales. This project is unique in that it seeks to apply the same information at a regional scale. The models allow researchers to develop different climate scenarios representing a range of possible future conditions based on societal actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Coastal Erosion Along Drew Point, AK. Permafrost-rich coastal zones are crumbling as a result of climate change (Source: Benjamin Jones, USGS)
Historic Weather Simulation
Scientists determine a regions climate based on 30-year periods of weather averages. This project will reconstruct past weather events with a climate and weather model to help us understand the future.
In this project climate scientists, fish ecologists, hydrologists, river scientists, social scientists, and community members are working together to model the land-atmosphere interactions in the Arctic. Partnering the data-driven historical climate reanalysis with community-based observations will provide a better understanding of historic hydrologic conditions and potential climate vulnerabilities of aquatic ecosystems and river ice.
Co-Produced Storylines
This project seeks to combine datasets, Indigenous knowledge, and people's lived experiences to tell the story of compounding climatic, hydrologic, and ecological effects of the changing Arctic climate. While scientific models are useful tools for planning, they will not tell the complete story. Human narratives and scenarios will help paint a more complete picture of both the impacts and possible adaptations to climate change. Through developing these descriptive narratives, or storylines, researchers build connections between processes and the human aspects of climate change. The lessons learned from these stories will help to guide adaptation strategies and preparedness.
Modified from Barnhardt and Kawagley (2005)
Potential climate storylines will include the sustainability of arctic fish populations, the transformation of fresh surface water and groundwater from drivers like thawing permafrost, the reliability of winter river ice travel, and the impacts on communities dependent upon the land and its resources. Converging existing datasets and firsthand Indigenous experiences will provide a more comprehensive understanding of changes in river ice, streamflow, water chemistry, and fish populations.
As winter arrives, this ice bridge forms on the Yukon river at Pilot Station, AK (Source: Ryan Toohey, USGS, Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center)
Understanding the impacts of permafrost thaw
Permafrost is ground that stays below 0 °C year-round. Some permafrost in the Arctic is hundreds to even thousands of years old (USGS, 2015) . Some permafrost contains a lot of ice, holding sand, rocks, and soils together. When the ice in permafrost thaws, the ground may collapse or pool water. The impact of thawing permafrost is an example of a land surface interaction that a climate model must consider.
When permafrost thaws it releases methane, a powerful greenhouse gas that can accelerate warming on a global scale. It can also cause shifts in the water table and the general hydrography of a region.
This map shows the mean annual ground temperature modeled in a study by Obu et. al (2018). Dark purple to light blue areas are where permafrost could be expected in the study area.
Permafrost zones as identified by Obu et al (2018) show which regions have the most permafrost to lose.
The image to the right shows exposed and thawing permafrost (Source: Josh Koch, USGS, Alaska Science Center)
Permafrost thaw has cascading and compounding effects.
Thawing permafrost leaves river banks weak and more susceptible to erosion. This leads to more sediment in the water, altering river chemistry- and fish habitat.
For Arctic communities, thawing permafrost also poses a serious threat to infrastructure built upon it. The integrity of buildings, including plumbing and electrical systems, is compromised by shifting ground.
Communities surrounded by water are vulnerable to changes in hydrology that can be brought on by thawing permafrost (Source: Rachel Loehman, USGS, Alaska Science Center)
The image to the right shows slumping river banks as a result of thawing permafrost (Source: Edda Mutter, YRITWC)
Changes in Arctic fish populations and health
Shifts in temperature, precipitation, and streamflow, directly and indirectly, affect Arctic fish species. Responses to climate change will vary across species and are likely dependent on the species’ tolerance to changes in water temperature and flow timing ( Reist et al., 2006 ). The project will analyze species previous behaviors in varying aquatic ecosystems conditions, including fluctuations in temperature and river flow. From understanding past fish behavior under known conditions, researchers at CU Boulder and the USGS hope to model future river conditions and coinciding species’ responses.
Pictured at left, Sockeye salmon spawning in the Grand Central River, on the Seward Peninsula near Salmon Lake, Alaska (Source: Chris Zimmerman, USGS, Alaska Science Center)
Research suggests changes in river flow and temperature have resulted in low runs and productivity of salmon in Alaska.
Salmon is a culturally important species for Indigenous and rural communities in the Arctic. Current salmon projections are exceedingly below average as of August 2021. In order to protect salmon migration, subsistence salmon fishing has been closed for most of the season ( Fitka, 2021 ).
Many communities in Alaska depend on subsistence fishing for cultural practices and nutrition consumption. The state of Alaska defines subsistence uses as “the customary and traditional uses of wild resources for food, clothing, fuel, transportation, construction, art, crafts, sharing, and customary trade”. Subsistence plays an important cultural and economic role in Indigenous communities.
Pictured at left, Coho salmon spawning (Source: National Park Service)
Project collaborators from the USGS Alaska Science Center will use data from the project's river modeling to create a fish model that uses river temperature to estimate fish growth rates and survival under historical and future (2035-2065) climate conditions. These projections are called fish bioenergetics models.
Fish bioenergetic simulations will assist commercial, subsistence, and recreational fisheries in developing strategies to adapt to the changing Arctic. These models will be used to simulate historical conditions and future changes in fish growth and population yields under different climate scenarios.
Photo provided by Nicole Herman-Mercer of the USGS
Indigenous fishermen will help the project identify which species are most important, what times of year they are harvested, and what trends the project should focus on. Through participatory mapping Indigenous communities' will be able to identify which sections of river are most important for fish spawning and rearing. Unifying datasets and first-hand observations will allow for validation of current data and identification of research gaps.
The series of maps on the right represents stream utilization of key anadromous fish species within the project's study domain (2021). Data provided by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Division of Habitat .
Victor Tonuchuk Jr. (environmental coordinator for the Kotlik Tribal Council), left, and Mary Lucy Andrews (Kotlik Elder)), right, at a participatory mapping event (Source: Nicole Herman-Mercer, USGS)
As climate change rapidly transforms Arctic rivers, the possibilities for people, their fisheries and winter travel corridors are deeply uncertain. This project will advance collective understanding of terrestrial hydrologic change and potential impacts on rivers, fish, and communities in the Arctic. USGS is committed to helping communities monitor these environmental changes and collect data that can inform action.
To ensure meaningful and equitable outcomes, we seek to engage communities to co-produce knowledge of river conditions and climate vulnerabilities. The Arctic Rivers project recognizes the rights of Indigenous communities to shape the research that occurs in their homelands and to assert their knowledge as a valid way of knowing. Co-production of knowledge involves the contribution and equal distribution of power between Indigenous stakeholders, researchers, and project members, in a manner that integrates the various knowledge systems present and informs the guidelines, goals, and expectations of the project.
Additional Resources
For more information about the Arctic Rivers Project and ways to get involved, we invite you to check out our project website and sign up for our listserv .
The National Science Foundation’s ‘Navigating the New Arctic’ program tackles convergent scientific challenges in the rapidly changing Arctic.
Alaskan and Yukon Rivers Webinar #1
Follow the project on social media!
Twitter: @RiversArctic
Instagram: @arctic.rivers
Related Publications
To learn more about the science that project collaborators are working on, check out out some of the publications below.
This geonarrative was created by Melissa Paulsen of the U.S Geological Survey, Ally Fitts of the University of Colorado-Boulder, and Haley Nolde of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. The Arctic Rivers Project is funded by the National Science Foundation.
Disclaimer: Although these data have been processed successfully on a computer system at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), no warranty expressed or implied is made regarding the display or utility of the data on any other system or for general or scientific purposes, nor shall the act of distribution constitute any such warranty. The USGS or the U.S. Government shall not be held liable for improper or incorrect use of the data described and/or contained herein. Although this information product, for the most part, is in the public domain, it also may contain copyrighted materials as noted in the text. Permission to reproduce copyrighted items must be secured from the copyright owner.