Flood Risks in New York City's Child Care System

On Election Day, November 8, 2022, New York voters passed a  $4.2 billion environmental bond . This bond, known as the “Clean Water, Clean Air, Green Jobs Act,” is the most significant climate intervention in the state’s history and the  largest green borrowing referendum in the nation . The bond has the potential to help equip state infrastructure to face climate change by improving water quality, retrofitting older buildings to use renewable energy, and flood-proofing neighborhoods.  $1.1 billion  of the bond act is dedicated to flood risk reduction to address the present risk of rising sea levels, and the urgent need to reshape infrastructure and the cityscape to survive the impacts of climate change-related hurricanes in the neighborhoods most vulnerable, as well as the geographies where a disaster is likely to strike in the near future.

Interventions like the voter-approved Clean Water, Clean Air, and Green Jobs Act are warranted in New York, and New York City, in particular, must take aggressive action to combat sea level rise and flooding to stave off significant damage to existing and planned infrastructure. Since 1950, sea levels have risen 9 inches in coastal regions across the state, and this trend is accelerating. The Battery at the southern tip of Manhattan is on pace to see an  additional 14 inch rise in sea level by 2050 . These changes correlate with more frequent and severe rainstorms, hurricanes, and floods. In 2021, Hurricane Ida dropped  50% more rain in an hour  than ever previously recorded by New York City, causing  $7.5 billion in damage  statewide.  

 More than 100,000 properties  in New York City are at risk of being severely affected by flooding over the next 30 years, and 25% of all residential lots in the city intersect with a stormwater flood zone. Dwellings in  basements and cellars  – important and often more affordable housing opportunities for low-income residents who continue to struggle with rising housing costs – are likely most at risk. Figure 1 shows an uneven distribution of the tens of thousands of  basement and cellar apartments  in New York City by community district. 

For some New Yorkers, basement and cellar spaces provide much more than a place to call home. Family child care (FCC) providers – who provide licensed, quality care and education to thousands of young children citywide – face unique risks from rising seas and intensifying flooding and rainfall. Some live and work in basement units, and others rely on basement space in addition to above ground floors to care for children and run their programs. LIIF’s analysis in this report suggests that, of the 5,841 licensed Family Child Care (FCC) and Group Family Child Care (GFCC) facilities located in New York City, 2,172 (37%) who currently care for 32,365 children are living and working in homes with basements or cellars, placing them at unique risk to current and future impacts of climate change. 

Despite providing a critical public service for New York families, the city’s FCC providers are chronically undercompensated for their work.  Recent national estimates  suggest that 60% of FCC providers have incomes below the national median, a figure that rises to 75% for Black home-based providers. Earning potential of FCC providers rarely exceeds the average annual national pay for all child care workers, which ranks in the  second percentile nationally  at $24,230 per year.

Low compensation in the sector means providers have little room in their budgets or reserves to take on expensive home repair or weatherization projects, all while the need for these types of projects grows. Between 2009 and 2019, costs of disaster repairs to property owners soared by  117% to $26 billion . These problems are amplified for FCC providers, threatening not only their homes but also their businesses and livelihoods. FCC providers are also often burdened by compounding inequities, with the majority being women, people of color, immigrants, and small business owners. They often struggle to access federal disaster recovery resources when extreme weather damages their property, and  many lack flood insurance .  Research  shows that Black households receive less support than White ones post-disaster even when the amount of damage is the same. Black disaster survivors see their wealth decrease by $27,000 on average, while White survivors experience an average increase in wealth of $126,000. Homes that serve dual functions as both a residence and business experience even deeper inequity. 

FCC providers leave the sector when expenses mount, threatening the city’s existing child care supply.  Recent data  collected by the Bipartisan Policy Center shows that New York City already has a deficit of more than 127,000 licensed child care spaces, and loss of existing supply could further burden families with young children that rely on child care to maintain consistent employment. Access to safe, stable, and quality early care and education experiences is also critical for healthy child development. Losing the few slots that already exist could put future generations behind.

To better understand and define the scope of flood vulnerability facing Family Child Care providers in New York City, this report uses state  child care licensing data  and information from the City Planning Department’s extensive land use and geographic data at the tax lot level,  PLUTO , on structures with basements and cellars to estimate the total number of existing FCC businesses operating from homes with below-grade space. These programs are then mapped against NYC Open Data’s  100-year sea level rise projections  and  stormwater flood scenario modeling  maps to assess which programs may be at most immediate and long-term risk.

Table 1 displays results of the first analysis: Of the 5,841 existing FCC programs in New York City, 2,172 (37.2%) with a capacity to serve 32,365 children (39.4%) are operating from homes with basements. These programs face unique vulnerabilities to climate emergencies and could be forced to temporarily or permanently close in the event of damage caused from flooded basement space.

About 11% of all licensed FCC programs citywide are operating in areas of projected long-term sea-level rise, representing 660 total homes with a current capacity to serve 9,089 children. Table 2 presents these data in context of structural characteristics of homes. Nearly 3,000 current child care slots are in homes with basements that are beyond the 100-year projected coastline. 

Long-term consequences for these programs are particularly dire, but periods of heavy rainfall could also lead to substantial damage in the short-term by flooding basement and other spaces that family child care providers rely on as their primary residences and sources of income.

Table 3 adds further context to short-term risks facing FCC providers in New York City using stormwater flood scenario maps released in 2022 as part of the NYC Stormwater Resiliency Plan. The moderate stormwater flood scenarios with current and 2050 sea-level rise projections both represent rainfall intensities of about 2 inches per hour and each have a 10% chance of occurrence per year. The extreme scenario uses 2080 coastline projections with a projected rainfall of 3.5 inches per hour, representing a 1% chance of occurrence per year. During Hurricane Ida of 2021,  3.15 inches of rain fell in Central Park  in a one hour period. 

Outcomes for FCC homes grow more dire as sea level rises over time and projected rainfall worsens. In the worst case scenario, nearly 80% of existing licensed FCC programs in New York City are at risk of stormwater, and more than one in three are at added risk  because their homes have below-grade basement space that is highly susceptible to flooding. 

Climate change in New York City threatens much more than physical buildings and infrastructure, and family child care (FCC) providers – the majority of whom are women, immigrants, or people of color – are at unique risk of heavy rain and rising seas. In 2022, the Low Income Investment Fund (LIIF) launched the Emergency Renovation and Repair Grant Program in New York City with support from the JPB Foundation and Alphadyne Asset Management in response to lingering damage from intense flooding caused by Hurricanes Henri and Ida a year prior. To date, LIIF has deployed $940,172 to 15 programs through this initiative.

For Yolanda Miguel, owner and operator of Wonderful Kids Child Daycare in East New York, Brooklyn, the Emergency Renovation and Repair Grant Program displayed the transformational effects that small investments in FCC providers can have to help prepare the sector for worsening weather and stabilize long-term program operations and quality.

An immigrant from Honduras, Yolanda started her family child care business in 2017 with a capacity to serve six children, and in 2019 she expanded to a larger license, now serving 16 children from ages six weeks to 12 years old. The program is located within a two-story home which also has a basement level and a fenced-in private backyard. Wonderful Kids is one of only about 3% of all licensed child care programs – centers and FCCs – in New York City participating in Quality Stars New York, the state’s quality rating and improvement system focused on supporting providers in efforts to improve their programs and provide high-quality environments for young children. 

In September 2021, a weeks-long rainstorm that culminated into Hurricane Ida flooded the basement level of Yolanda's home, which was used for storage of program supplies, such as classroom furniture and toys, and served as an office space for Yolanda and her two teachers. The three feet of standing water caused damage to the home’s plumbing system, floors, walls, office furniture, documents, and program materials. Because of the slope of the backyard and cracks in the outdoor stairs, water runoff continuously seeped into the basement. 

Yolanda was not able to afford a flood insurance policy prior to the storm, and although she and her husband have homeowner’s insurance, their policy does not cover flood damage, leaving them with no financial assistance for repairs. With $63,600 from LIIF’s NYC Emergency Renovation and Repair Grant Program, though, Yolanda has been able to repair backyard play space and re-open her program with new equipment. She renovated her back deck, ground level, and outdoor stairs, making it safer for the children, while also mitigating future water seepage into the basement. Yolanda moved out of her teenage son’s bedroom and back into her office downstairs. 

This grant from LIIF also allowed Yolanda to use some of her savings to install a kitchen in the basement so that she could move her program from the first floor of her home to the basement.  Relocating the program gives her and her family their living room, dining room, and kitchen back for their own private use, and bolsters the quality of the environment for children she serves.

Early care and education providers in New York City are likely to face increased challenges in decades to come as climate change increases water vulnerability and flood risk and temperatures rise. Policymakers and funders should respond to significant challenges with bold solutions that better prepare the entire city, but especially the populations, industries and neighborhoods most vulnerable to climate change. This section buckets policy and programmatic recommendations into two core focus areas that range from the small, program-level to the large, long-term vision and priorities for New York. 

1. Enact dedicated funding for child care facilities through a New York Child Care Facilities Fund. New York’s ECE sector needs swift, substantial investments to meet looming climate challenges, but too few programs have the reserves or operating capital to take on expensive facilities projects. Governor Kathy Hochul's   2023 State of the State   agenda calls for the creation of a $50 million child care capital program, an important first step in preserving existing licensed child care supply and creating new slots that are prepared for harsh weather or potential disasters. 
2. Offer technical assistance to providers to ensure that any public, philanthropic, or private facilities financing is used for projects that make programs more prepared for disasters. Technical assistance for development projects requires support from experts or umbrella organizations to work directly with child care providers through every aspect of the process, from securing funds to reviewing plans with contractors and sourcing materials. State and local climate funds could include set asides or special allocations to review proposals for child care facilities projects with an eye toward climate resilience. 
3. Help family child care providers renovate basement space to improve program quality, expand licensed capacity, and prepare for climate emergencies. In addition to calls for a child care capital program, Governor Hochul's State of the State also outlines an $85 million plan for legalizing basement dwellings and bringing units up to code as a source of affordable housing. These efforts should include priorities or special consideration for basements that serve dual purposes as homes and businesses. The implementing agency of the funds should consult with state and local child care licensing divisions to identify synergies and areas for helping licensed family child care providers improve their programs or expand capacity by modernizing basements for program or living space.
4. Use data to prioritize programs and areas that face compounding racial, socioeconomic, and climate disparities for facilities funding. New York City should incorporate assessments of climate risks and vulnerabilities in determining priorities for future public or philanthropic support for child care facilities. This paper represents just one possible way of assessing risk, but more could be done to connect the distribution of licensed child care supply to climate risks like rainfall, air quality, or extreme heat. Programs in communities with the most significant child care deserts and climate vulnerabilities should be prioritized for funding or eligible for additional support.

1. Allocate funding from the Clean Water, Clean Air, and Green Jobs Environmental Bond Act for child care facilities. The State should identify innovative ways to ensure that the spaces where young children live and play are prioritized for funding. This could occur through direct set asides for ECE programs and partnerships with intermediary organizations like CDFIs to provide technical assistance to small businesses who need support identifying and completing projects to make new or existing programs more sustainable and resilient, as LIIF and other financial institutions have  advised  the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to do in administering the $27 billion  Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund . 
2. Incorporate child care facilities into the City’s Flood Mitigation Plan. To mitigate the risk of flooding in New York City, the City’s Emergency Management Department developed the  NYC Hazard Mitigation Plan  in 2019 to offer residents a guide to understanding weather patterns, how to prepare their homes for the next storm, and how to ensure the most vulnerable people in their neighborhoods are safe and prepared for future disasters. Public literacy and awareness of risk are crucial to mitigating future hazards across the urban landscape.Through rollout of stormwater scenario modeling and planning and the Hazard Mitigation Plan, the City could partner with Family Child Care Networks and other umbrella organizations representing providers to quickly connect with and offer guidance to providers that may need support weatherizing their homes.
3. Make care infrastructure and young children a priority in broad City resilience planning. The  New York City Stormwater Resiliency Plan  outlines the City’s approach to managing the risk of extreme rain and flooding events. Investment in strategies to prepare for the impacts of extreme events will likely decrease damage to private property, disruptions of surface and below ground transportation, and impacts to waterbodies. Holistic resilience planning should include large-scale, multi-benefit green infrastructure projects with an emphasis on nature-based solutions to flooding, and conducting environmental impact assessments to minimize harm to ecosystems. A couple examples of natural flood-mitigation have been seen in Brooklyn’s Domino Park promenade and  PS 184M Shuang Wen School. The City of New York has been working in partnership with New York City public school students and more than 45 local restaurants at the Brooklyn’s Domino Park promenade building a  wall of oyster shells to fend off floods . PS 184M Shuang Wen School in Manhattan’s Chinatown has prioritized  greener playgrounds  with porous turf fields that can capture an estimated 1.3 million gallons of stormwater runoff. Child welfare should be a framing device in city resilience planning and can be accomplished through authentic youth engagement by considering the climate concerns of young children and youth. 
4. Incentivize quality mixed-use developments that bring child care facilities closer to residences. Co-locating affordable housing with community facilities like child care  provides the opportunity for the City to consume less energy and mitigate GHG emissions by centrally locating community necessities and public transportation. Co-locating community facilities with affordable housing helps cut transportation emissions and increases neighborhood walk and bike ability while also promoting mixed-income housing, green infrastructure, and clean energy. 

In decades to come, climate change will impact the daily lives of nearly everyone, but young children and their caregivers are among the  most vulnerable  populations to deep, long-lasting impacts. Across various flood risk models over the next 30-50 years, between 1,638 and 4,551 (28-78% of existing supply) licensed Family Child Care facilities are at substantial risk to flood damage without dramatic mitigation and resilience investments. Some are at heightened risk because of the physical structures they operate from, particularly the nearly 2,200 programs that rely on basement space. Nearly every program citywide is likely to be affected by potential for heavy rain and other environmental stressors like extreme heat, but some programs and neighborhoods face disproportionate risks. 

Adapting child care settings to be more resilient, energy efficient, and sustainable can have immediate benefits for child health and safety and support societal goals to reduce aggregate greenhouse gas emissions. Particularly in the context of New York’s recently approved $4.2 billion Clean Water, Clean Air, Green Jobs Act and the pending federal $27 billion Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, officials should identify innovative ways to ensure the spaces where young children live and play receive the support they need. 

Even more broadly, though, New York City should set a new standard for collective action to curb climate change by putting those most proximate to the issue at the root of response. New investments and policy changes should do more than just protect young children from environmental hazards. New York’s climate response could be a catalyst for the social promise we make to future generations, improving neighborhoods from the ground up with support for developing new, green anchor institutions that every family deserves access to – abundant affordable housing, quality early care and education programs, safe streets and engaging play spaces, accessible healthcare, diverse and sprawling cultural institutions, and the many other places and amenities that make a community feel like home. New York City and the United States face enormous climate challenges, and our solutions should seek to fundamentally change the way we value and support our youngest neighbors.