All About the Ocean Prediction Center
An overview of NOAA's National Weather Service Ocean Prediction Center.
What We Do
The Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) provides timely and accurate marine weather warnings and forecasts to protect life and property at sea, while enhancing maritime weather readiness and the economic viability of the maritime community. OPC forecasters continuously monitor weather over the North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans and issue warnings and forecasts out to five days. On average, OPC issues 12,700 warnings each year. This includes wind warnings (gale - storm - hurricane force), heavy freezing spray warnings, and ashfall advisories.
OPC is an integral component of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), located at the National Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP) in College Park, Maryland.
Why We Do it
According to the International Chamber of Shipping, “The international shipping industry is responsible for the carriage of around 90% of the world trade. Shipping is the lifeblood of the global economy.”
The device you're using to interact with this story map, maybe your car, shirt and shoes, and perhaps even the coffee you drank this morning: most everything is shipped over the high seas. Our nation’s maritime shipping industry is a $1.5 trillion dollar economic activity annually for the United States.
It can be difficult to imagine the sheer size of modern vessels, but consider this: the largest container ships routinely carry in excess of 15,000 Twenty Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs), with the biggest vessels now eclipsing 24,000 TEUs. On deck, the containers can be stacked as high as a 22-story building. The surface area of the deck can be as large as 3.5 football fields. And fully laden, end to end, the containers would stretch for 90 miles.
The image below shows shipping routes and track density, delineated by vessel type highlighting the oceanic super highways spanning the high seas.
Shipping routes highlighted by ship type: container ships (yellow), dry bulk carriers (blue), oil and fuel ships (red), gas ships (green), and carriers transporting vehicles (pink). The image is adapted from shipmap.org
This interactive visualization from shipmap.org shows the movements of the global merchant fleet over the course of 2012, overlaid on a bathymetric map.
The map defaults to May, however, you can change the time by using the slider bar at the bottom. The major shipping routes are apparent, and illustrates just how many vessels are traversing the high seas at any given time.
Accurate and reliable weather forecasts are absolutely critical to provide mariners adequate time to plan safe, economically sound routes days in advance, thereby minimizing exposure to the strongest winds and roughest seas, ultimately keeping the crew, vessel, and cargo as safe as possible.
Below is a snapshot of vessels taken from marinetraffic.com on March 20, 2023, at 00z. Notice the relative lack of ships near the western Bering Sea? Vessels are actively avoiding the worst conditions generated from an intense late season hurricane-force low pressure system with 70kt winds and significant wave heights nearing 12m (40 ft).
Snapshot of vessels taken from marinetaffic.com at March 20, 2023, at 00z.
Cargo ship in violent storm to hurricane force conditions. Video credit Alexey Fadeev.
OPC History
April 15, 1912
The basis for OPC's mission can be traced back to the sinking of the Titanic in April 1912. In response to that tragedy, an international commission was formed to determine requirements for safer ocean voyages.
1914
The commission’s work resulted in the Safety of Life at Sea Convention (SOLAS), generally regarded as the most important of all international treaties concerning the safety of merchant ships.
1970
The U.S. Weather Bureau, established in 1890, is renamed the National Weather Service and placed under the newly created National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
1995
The Marine Prediction Center (MPC) is established as one of the original six National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Service Centers, housed at the World Weather Building located in Camp Springs, Maryland.
December, 2000
The MPC initiates hurricane force wind warnings for mid-latitude, non-tropical cyclones that produce sustained winds greater than 63 kt / 72 mph. The advent of scatterometer instruments flying aboard satellites provides added confidence to usher in this new warning threshold.
2003
The MPC is renamed to the Ocean Prediction Center (OPC).
July 2, 2012
OPC issues the first surface analysis from the new NOAA Center for for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP) in College Park, Maryland. Over the course of the summer, other NCEP centers (WPC, EMC, CPC, and NCO) relocate to the new building.
May 1, 2013
OPC transmits all regional text forecasts using GFE, and OPC grids are incorporated into the National Digital Forecast Database. The grids are still considered experimental, however, without an official gridded backup capability from another forecast office.
December 12, 2017
The Atlantic offshore grids become operational, a major milestone for OPC.
July 9, 2018
The first routine weekly IDSS briefing is created for the United States Coast Guard off of the Atlantic Coast, a direct result of the El Faro tragedy in 2015. Example at right is taken from November 2021 as a strong low pressure developed off the U.S. East Coast.
March, 2020
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the first remote operational forecasts are issued by OPC.
May 10, 2020
The NOAA component of the U.S. National Ice Center transitions from the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) to the National Weather Service as OPC's Ice Services Branch.
October 28, 2021
The Pacific offshore grids become operational, a major milestone for OPC.
April 6, 2022
The first routine weekly IDSS briefing is issued for the USCG off of the Pacific Coast. Example at right is taken from January 2023 as a hurricane-force low pressure approached the U.S. West Coast.
September 11, 2022
OPC hires its first Warning Coordination Meteorologist.
Staff
OPC Organization Chart as of June 1, 2023
OPC is divided into the Ice Services Branch, Ocean Forecast Branch (operational forecasting, warning issuance), and the Ocean Applications Branch (development, support).
Combined, OPC boasts more than 500 years of professional marine weather forecasting experience.
Below is our interactive OPC alma mater map, with alumni spanning the globe from the University of Nairobi, to the University of Reading, to the University of Washington, to the University of Hawaii, and several universities in between.
OPC Alma Mater Map
Operations
The Ocean Prediction Center has 5 operational desks that run in 10 hour shifts: the Atlantic Regional, Atlantic High Seas, Pacific Regional, Pacific High Seas, and the Outlook. Operations are 365 days a year and 24x7, including night shifts, holidays, and weekends. A quick overview of each desk follows.
The Atlantic Regional desk is responsible for producing gridded forecasts for hazards, wind, wind gusts, significant wave height, visibility, weather, and ice accretion. The forecast area covers the U.S. exclusive economic zone, and this desk actively collaborates with 10 forecast offices along the U.S. East Coast, and with the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) along the southern boundary at 31N.
The forecaster also produces a 24-hour surface and wind/wave forecast, regional sea state analyses, and a North Atlantic basin-wide sea state analysis at 12z. This desk is usually staffed by a lead forecaster.
The Pacific Regional desk is responsible for producing gridded forecasts for hazards, wind, wind gusts, significant wave height, visibility, weather, and ice accretion. The forecast area covers the U.S. exclusive economic zone, and this desk actively collaborates with 7 forecast offices along the U.S. West Coast, and with TAFB along the southern boundary at 30N.
The forecaster also produces a 24-hour surface and wind/wave forecast including an Alaska and Arctic projection, regional sea state analyses, and a North Pacific basin-wide sea state at 00z.
The Atlantic High Seas desk produces a surface analysis two times per shift (main image), and a 48-hour suite of graphical forecast products. Also, twice per shift, this desk produces the high seas text forecast as a portion of the U.S. contribution to WMO METAREA IV.
WMO METAREAS MAP
The Pacific High Seas desk is a mirror of the Atlantic High Seas desk, however, is also responsible for an Alaska and Arctic projection in addition to the rest of the forecast products. This desk produces the high seas text forecast as a portion of the U.S. contribution to WMO METAREA XII.
WMO METAREAS MAP
Below is a sample image of the Alaska/Arctic projection, and this desk coordinates daily with Alaska offices.
Arctic Surface Analysis
The Outlook desk focuses on the medium range portion of the forecast, and produces a suite of graphical forecast charts for 72 and 96 hours (with gale force or higher winds forecast to 120 hours). This desk coordinates most with WPC, Alaska Region, and internally among all other forecast desks to ensure a seamless forecast.
Ice
On May 10, 2020, the NOAA component of the U.S. National Ice Center (USNIC) transitioned from the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) to the National Weather Service as OPC's Ice Services Branch.
With a global area of responsibility, the U.S. National Ice Center is the foremost government provider of snow and ice information. And in addition to being the exclusive source of snow and ice products for U.S. government customers operating in and near ice-infested waters, the USNIC produces a variety snow and ice products, from the strategic to tactical scales, that are designed for a wide range of customers including but not limited to the general public, military planners, intelligence agencies, and the maritime and research communities.
The U.S. National Ice Center is a tri-agency organization.
- NOAA component of the USNIC: NWS Ocean Prediction Center Ice Services Branch
- Navy component of the USNIC: Fleet Weather Center Norfolk, Naval Ice Center
- USCG component of the USNIC: Office of Waterways and Ocean Policy, Mobility and Ice Operations Division
A Brief USNIC history:
1976
U.S. Navy and NOAA form the Joint Ice Center (JIC); begin issuing joint ice products in 1979.
1980
Joint Ice Working Group (JIWG) is formed between U.S. and Canadian Ice Service (CIS).
1990
JIC begins collaboration with the Polar Science Center (PSC).
1995
The U.S. Coast Guard joins JIC to form the U.S. National Ice Center (USNIC).
1999
International Ice Charting Working Group (IICWG) forms based off on JIWG successes.
2002
International Ice Patrol (IIP) joins JIWG, forming the North American Ice Service (NAIS).
2016
Naval Ice Center realigns from Naval Oceanographic Office to Fleet Weather Center, Norfolk (FWC-N).
2019
The Naval Ice Center logo is retired from products in favor of a consolidated USNIC logo.
2020
The NOAA component realigns from NESDIS to NWS.
Center Operations and Production Flow
Key takeaways:
- Again, the USNIC has a global area of responsibility, but also provides local scale support.
- Reliance on remotely sensed observations (satellite imagery, synthetic aperture radar) combined with in-situ measurements and model data.
- Characterization of snow cover; surface observations used and highly valuable.
Daily Great Lakes Analysis
The USNIC produces a daily analysis of ice cover, ice concentration, ice stage of development (a proxy for thickness), and ice form (e.g. shore fastened, floe size).
Ice Outlook Products
Daily NAVTEX - Nowcast of ice conditions across the Great Lakes.
The Seasonal Ice Outlook is released December 1, and is a joint production and publication by the North American Ice Service.
The USNIC also produces a 15/30 day ice outlook, released on approximately the 1st and 15th beginning in mid-December and continuing throughout the ice season.
IDSS and Outreach
Hydro messages are urgent warnings of navigational dangers and hazards across the oceans. The USCG sends out several per day. Most of these messages are just informational, however a few do end up becoming spot forecast requests.
OPC provides Impact-Based Decision Support (IDSS) to customers and partners on a routine basis, including spot forecasts in support of USCG search and rescue missions, spot forecasts from NOAA research vessels, and spot forecasts in support of USCG investigations into derelict or disabled vessels. Spot forecast requests are typically received in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) .
example of weekly USCG D11 briefing off the U.S. West Coast
OPC issues a once per week briefing to both USCG Districts 5 and 11, and sometimes daily in high impact weather. The USCG then forwards the briefings to the GovDelivery email system, which is distributed to over 2,100 addresses.
OPC has been requested to deliver on-site marine briefings in support of incident commanders to several high-profile sailboat races off both coasts, a few include: The Annapolis to Newport race, Annapolis to Bermuda race, The Pacific Cup (San Francisco to Honolulu), Victoria BC to Maui race, and the Transpac race from Los Angeles to Honolulu.
The Ice Services Branch also routinely engages in decision support services, providing the USCG District 9 with ice concentration and estimated ice thickness charts 3x/week. These support USCG asset management across the lakes, and supports facilitation of cargo shipping. The USNIC also provides tailored and local scale support, for example ensuring maritime awareness for NPS employees as they surveyed wildlife on Isle Royale National Park, and to the USCG ensuring maritime awareness and safety of navigation as they escorted commercial vessels through Whitefish Bay.
OPC also maintains a robust Outreach program with multiple organizations, international partners, and other NOAA/NWS forecast offices. Some of our Outreach opportunities include staffing boat shows, WFO visits along both the East and West coasts, the annual Mariner Decision workshop, annual symposiums with Eastern and Western Regions and their WFOs, and ship and Port Meteorological Officer (PMO) visits. We've even been able to send forecasters on board NOAA P3 flights into hurricanes and intense winter extratropical cyclones.
We routinely send forecasters and analysts to annual AMS and NWA meetings, and OPC has chaired Extreme Maritime Weather sessions within the AMS conference.
We also maintain a close relationship with the Maritime Institute of Maritime Technology and Graduate Studies (MITAGs) in Baltimore, Maryland, providing routine in-person and virtual forecaster presentations and briefings. MITAGS is one of the OPC's, and NWS's, Weather Ready Nation Ambassadors.
What Makes OPC Unique
OPC is one of the few places in the world in which you get a chance to practice true synoptics. With forecast domains spanning 1000's of nautical miles you will get a chance to analyze the entirety of extra-tropical low pressure systems from genesis to dissipation. Our domain is so big we need FOUR geostationary satellites to see everything! We have a rigorous schedule that ensures you will never be bored on shift with hard product deadlines that must be met every few hours (or else the mariner's simply never receive the product). Do things like 90 knot winds, 50 foot seas, synoptic meteorology, satellite imagery, or traveling to workshops and conferences interest you? These are things we see and participate in all the time.
