Moving People & Goods Across the Texas Mexico Border in 2020

This interactive storymap is a supplement to the  Texas-Mexico Border Transportation Master Plan  published by the Texas Department of Transportation in March 2020.

This storymap illustrates trends and changes along the binational Texas-Mexico border regions (defined as 60 miles north and south of the Texas-Mexico Border) and transportation system up through the year 2020. The contents include an overview of the Texas-Mexico border transportation system, changing demographics, cross-border goods and people movement, shifting supply chains, border delays, an overview of 2020 events, impacts of COVID-19, USMCA, and US-China trade, and looking towards the future of the Texas-Mexico border transportation system.

The Texas-Mexico border is the longest international border in the continental U.S. between a state and country at 1,254 miles. The border connects people, culture, industries, and trade between the two countries of the United States and Mexico. 68% of trade between the U.S. and Mexico passes through the Texas-Mexico border, and approximately 46% of all people crossings between U.S. and Mexico occurred through the Texas-Mexico border in 2019. ​

The interactive map below shows the Texas-Mexican border along with major points of interest such as air and seaports, freight corridors, and border crossings. Use the upper left double arrows to access the legend and turn different geospatial layers on and off in the map.

2020 was a year that caused major disruptions to existing transportation patterns across the border. Trade value crossing the Texas-Mexico border fell 13% between 2019-2020 and non-essential travel was restricted as of March 2020. Additional information on northbound activity is as follows. ​

Overall trade in the region from 2006 to 2020 has had a steady growth trajectory, although 2020 saw trade value fall to its lowest mark since 2011.

​The border region has experienced rapid urbanization, industrialization, and growth in the binational border region over the last 30 years, surpassing that of the U.S. and Mexico. 

The Texas-Mexico border is the trade gateway for more than half of all US-Mexican trade.

This border contains strategic national assets including 28 roadway border and 6 freight rail crossings.

Additionally, 21 seaports, 46 airports, and 8 Foreign Trade Zones support trade between Texas and Mexico.

Truck movements northbound and southbound through the Texas-Mexico border made up the greatest share of trade in 2020. The following graphic illustrates trade share by mode.

Between 2006 and 2020, Texas-Mexico border trade by CMV increased by $96.7 billion, or 46.5 percent, from $207.9 billion to $304.6 billion. While this 15 year period saw a substantial rise in border trade, between 2019 and 2020 the value of commercial motor vehicle trade decreased by $39.4 billion, or 11.4 %.​

Between 1996 and 2020, northbound CMVs crossing the border increased by 2.4 million, or 109 percent, from 2.2 million CMVs to 4.5 million CMVs.​ The number of northbound CMVs decreased by 66,862, or 1.5% between 2019 and 2020.

From the years 2006 to 2020, Texas-Mexico border trade by rail increased by 16.7 billion, or 35.1 percent, from $47.5 billion to $64.2 billion.​

The U.S. and Mexico temporarily restricted non-essential travel across the U.S.-Mexico border beginning in March 2020 due to COVID-19.

This impacted the movement of people across the Texas-Mexico border with a decrease of 46% in northbound people crossings from 86.3 to 46.4 million people between 2019 and 2020.

From 2019 to 2020, northbound passengers crossing the border decreased to 46.2 percent from 86.3 to 46.4 million people.

Between 2006 and 2020, northbound POVs crossing the border decreased 49.2 percent from 42.5 million to 21.6 million.​

2020 saw significant changes in its comprehensive supply chain compared to 2019, from the total amount of trade value crossing the border to the distribution of each individual good or product. Four major takeaways from these changes are as follows:

1. All supply chains saw declines in southbound trade flows, while four supply chains experienced growth in northbound trade: animal products, chemicals, foodstuffs, and vegetable products.
2. Two supply chains, high tech and motor vehicles, saw overall cross-border trade declines of more than $15 billion in 2020, almost twice any other supply chain.​
3. A number of supply chains such as motor vehicles, plastics and rubber, high tech, and manufactured goods, experienced temporary plant closures due to COVID-19 on both sides of the border.
4. Some trade declines underscore the importance of and interdependence on cross-border trade within and among supply chains.​

Northbound crossing times from Mexico to the U.S. are consistently higher than southbound crossing times from the U.S. into Mexico.

Longer times to cross the border affect the economic competitiveness of the U.S. and Mexico. 

In 2020, median crossing times fell, but the amount of time vehicles might have to wait rose. This implies the reliability of the border transportation system worsened.

Use the map below to explore the varies border crossing locations along the Texas-Mexico border by clicking on the red pins for information on commercial and passenger crossing times. Look in the corners of the map frame for access to map tools such as the legend and zoom.

This section presents a timeline of significant events in 2020 that impacted the Texas-Mexico border transportation system.

Entire supply chains were disrupted by COVID-19 in 2020 - supply (production), demand (consumption), and transportation issues impacting the Texas-Mexico border.

Temporary border closures, limiting travel to only essential work, education, medical, and supply chain trips.

Stretched supply chains as plants on both sides of the border as well as in China shut down temporarily, limiting production.

Decreased sales for some US border town retailers serving Mexican consumers, as shopping is not considered an essential cross-border trip.

The US Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA) came into effect on July 1st, 2020. ​It was a replacement of the 1994 NAFTA and updated ​trade provisions for the three countries.

The USMCA allows US cheese producers to brand cheeses with commonly used naming conventions regardless of geographic origin. This solidifies an agreement made between the US and Mexico in 2018. 

USMCA alters the supply chain requirements to increase North American components and raw materials in vehicles. It also requires components to originate from factories with higher wages. In regards to record keeping there is an additional administrative expense to complying with new requirements.

The USMCA locks in Mexico's private sector energy reforms set in 2013 and streamlines the approval of natural gas exports to Mexico. It also allows for heavy crude exports to use foreign diluent to enable passage through pipelines.

Mexico and Canada are the top two destinations for U.S. Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise (SME) goods’ exports. The USMCA includes reforms to import tariffs to benefit SMEs access international e-commerce. Mexico will provide duty free shipping for items up to $117 USD, which allows American small businesses that would otherwise be unable to cover the cost of import taxes to ship to Mexico, and reduces red tape for lower-value shipments under $2,500, opening up a potential market for e-commerce shipments from the U.S. 

The USMCA introduces new local sourcing requirements for components – sewing thread, narrow elastic fabrics, pocketing, and coated fabrics. It also revised Tariff Preference Levels to increase North American market access for U.S. raw fabrics. 

Unlike the previous NAFTA treaty, the USMCA is meant to be an evolving agreement. Under the new “sunset” rules, or regulation on when trade provisions will expire, the USMCA is to be reviewed and extended every 6 years. Each extension will be for 16 years. USMCA maintain business certainty until 2036 and will continue to impact Texas-Mexico border trade.

US-China trade trends impact US-Mexico supply chain and the types of goods that pass through the Texas-Mexico border. The following section presents a timeline of US-China trade relations.

US agreed to reduce tariffs from 15% to 7.5% on some Chinese products.

China agreed to expand purchases of American products by $200B over the next 2 years.

China agreed to expand purchases of American products by $200B over the next 2 years.

China agreed to adjust regulation of intellectual property, technology transfers, and financial services.

As of the end of 2020, only 40% of China's purchase agreements have been completed.

 The US–China trade war and phase one agreement | PIIE 

After the signing of the Phase 1 trade agreement, Mexico fell to 2nd largest trading partner in 2020, amid several disruptions to global supply chains.

Mexico became the US's largest trading partner in 2019, as companies looked to alternative suppliers for low-cost manufacturing. Companies in Asia also looked to reroute their distribution network through Mexico to avoid new tariffs. 

Changes in consumption and production patterns create implications for the border

Consumers on both sides of the border have increased online purchases during the pandemic, which could result in decreased border-crossing growth rates and volumes.

Many retailers in Texas border crossing communities, particularly those serving Mexican consumers, have seen sales decline as only essential traffic has been allowed to cross the border during the pandemic.

As more online providers establish fulfillment operations in Mexico, online shopping options will continue to grow.

This could result in a decrease in the rate and volume of cross-border car and pedestrian traffic.

Companies manufacturing in Mexico will benefit from a stable and known trade environment via USMCA, proximity to North American markets, lower and faster logistics operations, and a skilled labor force.

Mexico can offer up 24 percent cost savings as either an alternative to China or in combination with operating in both locations.

As more companies re-shore to the North American market, cross-border trade volumes will increase in both directions.

Greater protections in the USMCA for US pharmaceutical manufactures should result in greater southbound flows of US products to Mexico. 

For autos and parts, USMCA’s content origin and wage rules are stricter than NAFTA.

With likely vehicle and part production moving back to the US, there is the potential for less northbound cross-border trade. 

Mexico will still be a large producer, but may rely more on its trade agreements outside of North America for exports.

Typically, a reliable view of the future includes a look to the past; 2020, however, was anything but typical. 

COVID-19, USMCA, and US-China trade issues in 2020 have the potential to bring long-term change to the Texas-Mexico border region. 

It has only been one year, so it is not yet possible to know whether these changes are temporary or more permanent and which are big changes and which are small. 

While there is some uncertainty about what the future looks like, the Texas-Mexico border region will, regardless, remain a critical corridor for the movement of people and goods within North America. 

The more that border operations can adapt and accommodate these changes, the more efficient and beneficial to North America the region will become.