2021/22 North Atlantic Hurricane Force Wind Events

Hurricane force (HF) wind warnings are issued by the Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) when non-tropical sustained winds of 64 kt (74 mph) or greater are being observed, or are forecast to occur within 48 hours. These warnings represent the highest wind warning category issued by OPC and the National Weather Service.

Accurate and reliable weather forecasts are critical to provide mariners adequate time to plan safe, economically sound routes days in advance. This ultimately minimizes exposure to the strongest winds and roughest seas keeping the crew, vessel, and cargo as safe as possible.

The Ocean Prediction Center, as part of the National Weather Service, helps fulfill the NOAA mission of providing weather, water, and climate data, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and enhancement of the national economy.

The following story map takes a deeper dive into the most recent season, with some historical context.

From June 1, 2021, to May 31, 2022, OPC forecasters analyzed 56 separate hurricane force wind events across the North Atlantic Ocean, either created by low pressure systems or driven by synoptic scale forcing.

Each of the 207 circles on the interactive map below represents a low pressure or the location of hurricane force winds, color coded by pressure; the warmer the pressure, the deeper the system. Clicking a marker will provide more information including the position, pressure, date, and corresponding OPC surface analysis.

Some hurricane force wind events were brief and analyzed for just one synoptic hour, while others spanned multiple days and charts. For barrier and tip jet events where no discernible surface low pressure was analyzed, a zero pressure and white color was assigned.

Accumulation graphs provide a quick diagnosis of the latest season, and how it compares to recent history and the previous 16 season average. The graphs provide visual cues to monthly trends, active periods, and season totals.

During the Spring 21-22 season, the lowest pressure analyzed for a hurricane force low was 928 mb.

On February 5, a low pressure developed along a stationary front south of Nova Scotia. By 18z that afternoon, OPC forecasters analyzed a 995 mb low just south of Newfoundland. Continuing a northeast movement, the low explosively intensified over the next 24 hours, deepening to 953 mb by February 6, 18z. The low continued to intensify overnight, deepening another 25 mb over the next 12 hours, reaching the lowest analyzed central pressure of 928 mb on February 7, 06z.

Generally speaking, for an extratropical cyclone, a 24 mb pressure decrease in 24 hours defines the criteria for rapid intensification. The table above right highlights some of the incredible 6/12/18/24-hour pressure falls. At the height of intensification, the low was deepening around 3 mb per hour.

The histogram at right highlights all central pressure values of hurricane force lows since June 1, 2005. The 928 mb pressure falls into the deepest 0.4% of analyzed extratropical cyclones.

ASCAT overpasses returned winds up to 90 kt, and an altimeter pass returned significant wave heights to 66.62 ft (20.3 meters).

The next set of charts compares to the most recent season to our relatively brief historical archive across the North Atlantic, including monthly and season comparisons sandwiched around the full hurricane force wind event patch quilt. Clear hurricane force wind event maximums occur between December and February.

And finally, below, is a heat map location comparison between the most recent (left of the swipe) to the previous 16 seasons (right of the swipe). Consistent with our historical archive, hot spots of hurricane force wind events were located around the south and southeast coasts of Greenland.