Displacement Risk Across King County, Washington

Displacement is a complex phenomenon where a factor or combination of factors, such as social, economic, and environmental factors, cause people to leave their current residence or community, often involuntarily. In American society, this often looks like wealthier White individuals moving to relatively less wealthy areas with higher BIPOC (Black, Indigenous, and other people of color) populations which changes the local socio-economic environment and pressures existing BIPOC community members to leave.

This project aims to identify areas in King County, Washington, that are at most risk for displacement, with the goal of promoting equitable urban development that protects local BIPOC communities from experiencing displacement.

To understand a complex phenomena like displacement risk that is not clearly defined in a singular, numeric variable, we used numerous different variables that often connect to displacement to quantify displacement risk. Learn more about these variables and how they relate below!

A significant decrease in BIPOC population is a strong indicator of displacement because it shows that BIPOC individuals are leaving an area. This directly aligns with the definition of displacement mentioned earlier.

A significant decrease in BIPOC population is a strong indicator of displacement because it shows that BIPOC individuals are leaving an area. This directly aligns with the definition of displacement, which often involves a factor or combination of factors that pressure low-income and BIPOC communities to leave involuntarily.

A significant increase in median house prices often indicates that wealthier people are moving to an area, influencing the local economy. As a result, the pre-existing, less wealthy community, frequently consisting of BIPOC individuals, may be priced out of the area and experience displacement.

Percent of block groups in each reliability class.

Reliable: 75%

Not Reliable: 15%

NA: 10%

A significant increase in the percentage of households that speak English only suggests a decline in language diversity in an area. Since BIPOC communities often speak a wide variety of languages because of their diverse cultural backgrounds, it may show that BIPOC individuals are being displaced from an area.

Percent of block groups in each reliability class.

Reliable: 92%

Not Reliable: 8%

NA: 0%

If an area remains classified as cost-burdened among renters or changes to be classified as cost-burdened, it may signify displacement risk. Low-income individuals, who are often renters, may find themselves unable to afford rising rent costs, leading to potential displacement.

Percent of block groups in each reliability class.

Reliable: 22%

Not Reliable: 49%

NA: 29%

Areas with a significant number of condo conversions (apartment units converted to condos) indicate increasing ownership opportunities and decreasing rental options. As a result, low-income renters may be forced to leave in search of available apartments, leading to their displacement.

Additional variables beyond those used in this analysis can further quantify displacement risk. Such variables may include data on foreclosures, single-family house flipping, and construction permits for new housing. If our team were able to acquire this data, our index would provide a more comprehensive and accurate quantification of displacement risk.

When aggregating the 2010 block group values to the 2020 block group geography with the census crosswalks, missing values for some of the block groups were estimated based on nearby block groups. While it is a reasonable estimation method, it does add uncertainty to analysis conclusions. Furthermore, many missing values (29% of block groups) are present in the “Change in Housing Burden Status Among Renters (2017-2022)” variable, which introduces reliability concerns to our quantification of displacement risk. One possible solution is to use a supervised machine learning algorithm to predict the missing values, improving reliability.

The variable “Change in Housing Burden Status Among Renters (2017-2022) has numerous block groups with unreliable estimates (49% of block groups), which may impact the reliability of the displacement risk index. Additionally, it is impossible to calculate reliability for the variables “Change in Population by Race” and “Condo Conversions” as they lack margins of error data.

Based on our displacement risk index, we suggest to advocate for equitable development in the areas where displacement risk is the highest. These areas are in most need for equitable development to ensure that low-income, BIPOC individuals are not displaced. Block groups considered high risk are within some areas of Bellevue, Redmond, Seattle, Tukwila, Kent, Renton, and Auburn.

For further analysis, we also suggest to consider more variables that indicate displacement, such as those mentioned before. It would also be best to use another dataset that is more reliable and complete to measure change in housing burden among renters. These will make the displacement risk index and following conclusions more accurate and reliable.

For more information about displacement and how it affects low-income, BIPOC communities, see the following resources: