Why is 2020 a critical year for nature?
With historic rates of extinction and habitat loss, humans must act to preserve biodiversity.
According to the global conservation community, 2020 will be a “super year” for the environment. With China due to host the COP15 of the UN Convention on Biological Diversity in Kunming, Yunnan Province, in October, the Paulson Institute’s Rose Niu, Li Zhu, and Terry Townshend explain why this is such an important year to focus on the environmental and economic crisis that could loom without immediate action and global participation.
Sudan, the world's last male Northern White Rhino, passed away with his beloved keeper, Joseph Wachira, by his side. Only two female Northern White Rhinos remain. (Photo: Ami Vitale, National Geographic creative)
A recent study by some of the world’s most respected wildlife scientific institutions showed that, since 1970, the populations of vertebrates declined by an average of 60% and that the extinction rate is at least 1,000 times the historical average. Almost all of this loss is a direct result of human activity—loss of forests, wetlands, grasslands, and other important habitats, as well as pollution and the introduction of non-native species to vulnerable places. In 2018 alone, we lost the last male Northern White Rhino, meaning the remaining two females are unable to reproduce, and the stunning Spix’s Macaw has been declared extinct in the wild. More than 30,000 species, including one in four mammals, one in eight birds, and almost half of amphibians, are currently threatened with extinction.
Spix's macaw are now extinct in the wild, with the only known survivors extant in captivity. (Photo: Shutterstock)
Why does it matter?
Beyond the strong moral argument to protect wildlife and wild places, ultimately, all economic activity and indeed human life depends on nature. Nature provides us with clean, breathable air, fresh water, food, and shelter. All of these essentials depend on functioning ecosystems. Yet, we are only beginning to understand the full and complex value of nature. For example, research in Germany recently estimated that a worldwide loss of pollinating insects and birds would lead to a drop in agricultural output of about $217 billion and coral reefs are estimated to provide services, including nurseries and feeding grounds for fish, worth $375 billion each year. Other research implies a value for forests of well over $100 trillion for their role in capturing carbon alone. To put this into context, that figure is approximately double the combined annual GDP of the world’s largest seven economies in 2018. These examples are the tip of the iceberg and, in case you need more convincing, according to some estimates as many as one third of the medicines in use today originally came from nature, mostly from plants.
If anyone thinks we can leave Earth if it becomes uninhabitable, take note that, on average, the temperature on Mars is minus 60 degrees Celsius, on Venus a sultry 462 degrees Celsius and on Saturn a cool minus 178 degrees Celsius. And we cannot breathe on any of them.
VIDEO: 2020 Is A Critical Year for Nature
Without policy-based action, global warming is expected to reach 4.1°C – 4.8°C above pre-industrial temperatures by 2100. Current policies are projected to reduce baseline emissions and result in about 3.0°C warming. Source: Climate Action Tracker
What are governments doing about it?
Although the scale and speed of the loss of wildlife in the last 50 years is staggering, it has not come out of the blue. As far back as the “Earth Summit” in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992, governments recognised the problem and, under the auspices of the United Nations, formed a new international convention aimed at slowing and stopping the rapid loss of biodiversity and decline of ecosystem functions.
Entering into force in 1993, the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) recognized, for the first time in international law, that the conservation of biodiversity is "a common concern of humankind," reminded decision-makers that natural resources are not infinite and set out a philosophy of sustainable use. CBD recognized that ecosystems, species, and genes must be used for the benefit of humans. However, this should be at a rate that does not lead to the long-term decline of biological diversity. Importantly, the Convention is legally binding.
As of 2020, the CBD has been ratified by 195 countries including all UN member states, with the exception of the United States.
Since its formation, the CBD has met 14 times, beginning with the first “Conference of the Parties” (so-called “COP1”) in the Bahamas in November and December 1994 and most recently in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, in November 2018 (COP14). The 15th meeting (COP15) is due to be held in Kunming, China, from October 15-28, 2020.
Since 1994, the COP has met 14 times
Beginning in 1994, the Conference of the Parties, the governing body of the Convention on Biological Diversity, has gathered for 14 ordinary meetings and one extraordinary meeting held in two parts. Source: Convention on Biological Diversity
Progress so far and why COP15 is critical
Ten years ago, in Nagoya, Japan, governments at COP10 adopted a Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-20, including a set of 20 specific targets to halt biodiversity loss. These targets were called the Aichi Biodiversity Targets after the Japanese prefecture of which Nagoya is the capital and included integrating biodiversity values into economics, phasing out harmful subsidies and introducing positive incentives, sustainable consumption and production, raising public awareness, mobilizing more financial resources for biodiversity conservation, and at least halving the rate of habitat loss.
Despite some notable achievements it is fair to say that, overall, progress towards the Aichi targets has been slow. At COP14 in Sharm el-Sheikh in December 2018, governments themselves stated [that they were]:
“Deeply concerned that, despite many positive actions by Parties and others, most of the Aichi Biodiversity Targets are not on track to be achieved by 2020.”
Now is the time
Ten years after the adoption of the Aichi targets, governments are due to meet in Kunming, China, for COP15 to agree on new targets for reducing biodiversity loss stretching to 2030 and beyond. We cannot afford another ten years of failure and, in the context of an alarming increase in nature loss outlined by the Living Planet Index, compounded by a worsening climate crisis, it is easy to see why many commentators are describing COP15 as a “make or break” meeting not only for nature but for human wellbeing. The discussions and agreements that will happen at COP15, learning from the weaknesses of the past 10 years, will go a long way to determining the success or otherwise of humanity’s efforts to reduce and eventually halt the loss of natural assets on which all economic activity ultimately depends.
That is why 2020 is undoubtedly a big year for protecting mother nature and ensuring future human prosperity.
To learn more about the Paulson Institute's conservation efforts, please visit our Conservation Blog for additional coverage.
Read more:
- Living Planet Index, 2018
- IUCN Red List of threatened species
- Sekercioglu, Cagan H, How Much is a Bird Worth?
- Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres (2008, September 15). Economic Value Of Insect Pollination Worldwide Estimated At U.S. $217 Billion. ScienceDaily. Retrieved March 1, 2011 .
- Umberto Llavador, John Romer and Joaquim Silvestre, Sustainability for a Warming World, Harvard University Press, 2015.
- World Bank, 2018 GDP data
- Global Biodiversity Outlook 3
- The National Wildlife Federation
- Convention on Biological Diversity
- Climate Action Tracker
