World Cup Betting Guide

Team profiles for the eight favorites to win the 2022 FIFA World Cup (plus a bonus profile on the United States)

Before going any further, it is important to note a few things: Sports bettors can lose real money, and fast. While it sounds silly and obvious, since sports betting is all done online, it might be easy to forget that all the bets that are placed use real money. If you are not careful and don’t understand this, then it is easy to lose money fast. Sports betting can be an addictive habit. If this hobby turns into an addiction, it is important to seek help. There are a number of resources available to help anyone who struggles from gambling addiction. If you or anyone you know needs help, please call 1-800-522-4700 or refer to  https://www.ncpgambling.org/ 

With more and more states allowing online sportsbooks, sports betting has soared in recent years. Whether it's a college student making a casual bet on a game that they have little interest in to make it more interesting, professional sports bettors using data and analytics to get an upper hand on large-money bets, or anything in between, sports bettors can be found in every corner of the country. Regardless of if you bet or not, the sports betting market can provide fans with a lot of insight. Whether it's on a per game basis or the tournament as a whole, a lot can be learned from the lines created by the sportsbook, as they use data and analytics to create the lines that bettors wager on. As we will examine later, one of the sad realities of the World Cup is that, in terms of the tournament as a whole, the underdogs rarely win. Usually, a team with top 4 or 5 pre-tournament odds ends up winning the whole thing. Over the course of this World Cup Betting Guide, we will quickly examine the history of soccer betting and world cup betting. We will also dive into the amount of money that has been bet on World Cup games in the past and projections for this year to show how big a market this truly is. Finally, we will provide you with profiles on the teams with the top eight odds.

The earliest soccer bet can not be traced, given that it was likely an underground, illegal bet. After all, sport betting didn’t become legal in the United Kingdom until 1961, which at the time was still one of the earliest places to legalize the activity. However, one of the earliest on record forms of soccer betting came from Littlewoods in 1923, a retail and soccer betting company founded in Liverpool, England. Littlewoods used the pool system, where “fans would be given a coupon outside of stadiums and fill in what they thought were the most likely scores or results.” As sports betting became more and more popular, these coupons were placed in newspapers, where anyone could fill them out and send them in. Companies such as Littlewoods, who controlled the pools, were able to maximize their profit through the pool system because they had complete, unregulated control on the payouts. They would collect all the money from the coupons, take their portion, and then pay out the remaining money to the winners. The coupons had a limited amount of options for what you could bet on in comparison to today's sportsbooks. Additionally, compared to the odds in today's sportsbooks, the odds and the payouts were extremely favorable for the companies that ran the book. Along with horseracing, soccer was the most popular sport bet on during this era in the United Kingdom. Due to the fact that the World Cup only comes around once every four years, it was a popular tournament to wager on. As betting became legal during the second half of the 1900s, more traditional “bet shops” were opened. While these shops offered a wider variety of things that you could bet on compared to the Littlewood coupons, it still did not reach the number of options bettors have today. Over the rest of the back half of the 1900s, the sports betting industry thrived. These betting shops offered legal odds on World Cup matches for the first time. Then, in 2005, the United Kingdom became the first nation to “legalize and regulate” online sports betting. With online betting making sports betting more accessible, more and more people started wagering on matches.

In the United States, there was a lot of corruption in the early half of the 1900th century, with coaches, athletes, and referees throwing matches. This led to George H.W. Bush signing the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) in 1992, which outlawed sports betting everywhere except for Las Vegas, the gambling capital of the United States. However, underground bookies still found ways to illegally accept and payout wagers across the country. Then, in a landmark ruling in 2018, the Supreme Court ruled PASPA unconstitutional and determined that each state had the power to come up with their own sports betting laws. Since then, more and more states are making sports betting legal.   

Due to the increasing legality and accessibility, the 2022 World Cup has been the most bet-on sporting event of all time, and it is only going to grow as the final stages progress. Bloomberg estimated before the start of the tournament that $35 billion dollars would be bet on it. For context, this is more than the GDP of the entire country of Cameroon and is 195 times as much money as was bet on the 2022 Super Bowl. One online sportsbook estimated as much as $1.89 billion would be bet with British bookmakers alone during the World Cup. In the United States, the numbers are similar. According to CNBC, “An estimated 132 million Americans now live in states where sports betting is legal, compared with just 10 million during the last World Cup four years ago. As such, 20.5 million Americans plan to bet a total $1.8 billion” on the tournament this year. ESPN estimates that at least 1 billion dollars will be at stake for every single game in the tournament

One issue that comes with betting is the possibility of corruption. While newer technologies and companies like Sportradar are devoted to preventing this from happening, this has not always been the case. For the first time at a World Cup, FIFA has assembled international agencies such as INTERPOL, the FBI, and Sportradar to monitor markets and the games to ensure that there is no match-fixing. However, many past scandals involving betting on soccer matches revolved around smaller clubs and less important matches. Italy, in specific, has seen an unusual amount of scandals. One time in the Serie C league, it was uncovered that the Paganese goalkeeper, Marco Paolini had spiked the water bottles of the opposition team. Paolini was suspended and it was later discovered that he was linked with a very wealthy Singaporean businessman. While no scandals around money and betting at the World Cup have ever been revealed, there was one blatant example of match fixing. Because of the way that the tournament works with goal differential often being a deciding factor in who advances from the group, final group stage matches are always played at the same time. This wasn’t always the case, however. In the 1982 World Cup, West Germany helped its neighboring country, Austria, advance to the group stage over Algeria by playing an intentionally low-scoring game. West Germany, Austria, and Algeria finished the group stage with 4 points apiece, yet the latter failed to advance on goal differential. 

Finally, one of the sad realities of the World Cup is that, while there may be exciting upsets in group stage matches or even in the early games of the knockout rounds, the winner is rarely ever a true underdog according to pre-tournament odds. Even if you assume each team has equal odds to win any given game, the odds of this happening is roughly 3%, or ½*½*½*½*½ (50% chance to advance out of the group stage and then 50% chance to win each knockout stage game). Obviously, the true odds for underdogs is way lower than this. Historical data supports this notion. The biggest underdogs to win since 1986 was Italy in 2006, who had pre-tourney odds of +1000. For reference, this would be the 6th best odds in this year's World Cup. Besides the Italian side, no winning side has had pre-tournament odds worse than +700 since 1986. This would be tied for the 3rd best odds at this year's tournament. So while the early rounds are bound to produce underdog stories that can unite a whole nation, unfortunately these underdogs rarely, if ever, go the distance. Therefore, the following profiles only feature team with realistic chances to win this year's tournament (besides a bonus entry on the United States)

To follow along all of our picks for the tournament, please follow  @WahooWCLocks  on Twitter!

Brazil

Odds to Win World Cup: +333 (bet $100 to win $333)

Argentina

Odds to Win World Cup: +550 (bet $100 to win $550)

France

Odds to Win World Cup: +700 (bet $100 to win $700)

England

Odds to Win World Cup: +800 (bet $100 to win $800)

Spain

Odds to Win World Cup: +800 (bet $100 to win $800)

Germany

Betting Odds: +1100 (bet $100 to win $1,100)

Netherlands

World Cup Odds: +1200 (bet $100 to win $1,200)

Portugal

Odds to Win World Cup: +1400 (bet $100 to win $1,400)

United States of America

Odds to Win World Cup: +15000 (bet $100 to win $15,000)

Brazil

Odds to Win World Cup: +333 (bet $100 to win $333)

FIFA Ranking: 1

Manager: Tite

5 Star Players: Alisson Becker (Goalkeeper, Liverpool), Casemiro (Midfielder, Manchester United), Marquinhos (Defender, PSG), Neymar (Forward, PSG), Vinicius Jr (Forward, Real Madrid)

Past World Cup Experience: 22 appearances, most recently in 2018. Have won the tournament 6 times, most recently in 2002 when they defeated Germany 2-0.

Preview: On paper Brazil has perhaps the most complete and talented roster in the entire tournament and enter the tournament as the favorite to win the entire thing. With arguably the best goalkeeper in the world in Allison, two world class center-backs, Marquinhos and Thiago Silva, and a deep group of extremely dynamic players up top including Neymar, Vinicius, and Gabriel Jesus, Brazil is a force to be reckoned with. The one area where Brazil could see problems is their midfield. Fred, Fabinho, and Casemiro, the three most recognizable midfielders on the roster, are all getting older and haven’t quite found their form this season in the Premier League. However, if Brazil’s midfield can hold their own, the talent at the front and at the back makes Brazil the most dangerous team in this tournament.

Argentina

Odds to Win World Cup: +550 (bet $100 to win $550)

FIFA Ranking: 3

Coach: Lionel Scaloni

5 Star Players: Ángel Di María (Forward, Juventus), Lautaro Martínez (Forward, Inter Milan), Lisandro Martínez (Defender, Manchester United), Cristian Romero (Defender, Tottenham), Lionel Messi (Forward, PSG)

Past World Cup Experience: 18 appearances, most recently in 2018. Has won the tournament 2 times, most recently in 1986 when they defeated West Germany 3-2.

Preview: The biggest story for Argentina going into the World Cup is Lionel Messi. The greatest player of all time is now 35 and this will be his last World Cup. The pressure of winning a major international tournament has been lifted off of Messi’s shoulders after they defeated Brazil 1-0 in the summer of 2021, and many believe this will allow him to play at his most confident and relaxed. Between Di María and Lautaro Martínez, Messi has a strong front line supporting him. Argentina are also very solid in the midfield, with names like Leon Paredes and Rodrigo De Paul headlining that group. Finally, the combination of veteran experience from Nicolás Otamendi combined with younger defenders like Cristian Romero and Lisandro Martínez forms a well above average backline. Argentina's biggest question, as has been for all of their major tournaments for the last 20 years or so, is will the talent around the greatest player of all time perform well enough to allow for Messi to have an off game or two. If so, Messi and his Argentinian teammates could write a fairy book ending to his career.

France

Odds to Win World Cup: +700 (bet $100 to win $700)

FIFA Ranking: 4 

Manager: Didier Deschamps

5 Star Players: Olivier Giroud (Forward, AC Milan), Antoine Griezmann (Forward, Atlético Madrid), Kylian Mbappé (Forward, PSG), Aurélien Tchouaméni (Midfielder, Real Madrid), Raphaël Varane (Defender, Manchester United)

Past World Cup Experience: 16 appearances, most recently in 2018. Have won the tournament 2 times, most recently in 2018 when they defeated Croatia 4-2.

Preview: France will be looking to win their second World Cup in a row – a feat that only Brazil and Italy have accomplished. The highlight of the team is the attack, with arguably the best forward in the World, Kylian Mbappé leading the line, and other talented players like Olivier Giroud and Antoine Griezmann in support. France also has a slew of options in the defense with players such as Raphael Varane and Dayot Upamecano. Like Brazil, however, France could struggle in the midfield with both N'golo Kanté and Paul Pogba ruled out due to injury. They will look to young Real Madrid stars, Aurélien Tchouaméni and Eduardo Camavinga to fill in. If these young Madrid midfielders can fill the shoes of Pogba and Kanté, then France should look to make another deep run in this year's tournament.

England

Odds to Win World Cup: +800 (bet $100 to win $800)

FIFA Ranking: 5

Manager: Gareth Southgate

5 Star Players: Jude Bellingham (Midfielder, Borussia Dortmund), Harry Kane (Forward, Tottenham), Harry Maguire (Defender, Manchester United), Declan Rice (Midfielder, West Ham), Raheem Sterling (Forward, Chelsea)

Past World Cup Experience: 16 appearances, most recently in 2018. Have won the tournament 1 time, in 1966 when they beat West Germany 4-2

Preview: It is hard to find a weakness in this England roster. With a mix of exciting young players such as Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka, and Phil Foden as well as experienced players from the 2020 Euros and 2018 World Cup runs like forward Harry Kane, Raheem Sterling, and Jordan Pickford, England has the mix of youth and experience that is a staple of all good teams. The main concern for England comes at the back and with their coach, Gareth Southgate. With an out of form Harry Maguire and an injured Reece James, once of the most talented English players, England does not have the strength at the back that they had two years ago when they made their run to the Euro finals. Additionally, there are concerns about Gareth Southgate and specifically whether he will a) select the right squads, and b) be able to compete tactically with other, more respected managers.

Spain

Odds to Win World Cup: +800 (bet $100 to win $800)

FIFA Ranking: 7

Manager: Luis Enrique

5 Star Players: Busquets (Midfielder, FC Barcelona), Gavi (Midfielder, FC Barcelona), Aymeric Laporte (Defender, Manchester City), Álvaro Morata (Forward, Atlético Madrid) Pedri (Midfielder, FC Barcelona)

Past World Cup Experience: 16 appearances, most recently in 2018. Have won the tournament 1 time, in 2010 when they defeated Netherlands 1-0.

Preview: The highlight of the Spanish team is in the middle of the pitch. World class veterans, Rodrigo, Thiago, and Sergio Busquets combine with two off the most exciting teenagers in the world, Barcelona duo Pedri and Gavi, to form the deepest, most talented midfield in the tournament. Spain also has an extremely strong back line, led by the experienced Jordi Alba, Dani Carvajal, and Aymeric Laporte. The biggest question mark with the team comes up front. The attacking options for Spain lack quality and experience with Alvaro Morata being the only big name attacker on the team sheet. If Spain can get production from Morata and other forwards like Ferran Torres, Marco Asensio, and Dani Olmo, then there midfield and defense is strong enough to compete with any team in this tournament

Germany

Betting Odds: +1100 (bet $100 to win $1,100)

FIFA Ranking: 11

Manager: Hansi Flick

5 Star Players: Joshua Kimmich (Midfielder, Bayern Munich), Serge Gnabry (Forward, Bayern Munich), Thomas Müller (Forward, Bayern Munich), Manuel Neuer (Goalkeeper, Bayern Munich), Antonio Rüdiger (Defender, Real Madrid)

Past World Cup Experience: 20 appearances, most recently in 2018. Have won the tournament 4 times, most recently in 2014 in a 1-0 defeat against Argentina.

Preview: Perhaps one of the most well rounded teams in the World Cup, Germany enters the tournament hungry for revenge after their group stage exit in 2018. Germany has historically been a world cup powerhouse, and this trend should continue this year. Germany’s 26 man roster will consist of players who mainly play in the Bundesliga, the German domestic league, and specifically for Bayern Munich, the most famous and most dominant team in the Bundesliga. Germany's team is strongest in the back and midfield, led by Bayern Munich stars Manuel Neuer, Joshua Kimmich, and Leon Goretzka. The big question mark for Germany is at the striker position. Following the injury to RB Leipzig striker Timo Werner, Germany lacks a truly game-changing striker. If they get good production from their number 9, then Germany will be a team no one will want to face.

Netherlands

World Cup Odds: +1200 (bet $100 to win $1,200)

FIFA Ranking: 8

Manager: Louis van Gaal

5 Star Players: Steven Bergwijn (Forward, Ajax), Matthijs De Ligt (Defender, Bayern Munich), Frenkie De Jong (Midfielder, FC Barcelona), Memphis Depay (Forward, FC Barcelona), Virgil Van Dijk (Defender, Liverpool)

Past World Cup Experience: 11 appearances, most recently in 2014. Their best finish was as runner-up. This has happened 3 times, most recently in 2010.

Preview:  Netherlands team is filled with about a 50/50 mix of players from Europe's top five leagues and the Everdivisie, the domestic Dutch league which features famous sides such as Ajax and PSV. This Netherland team is strongest in the back, and specifically in central defense. The backline is led by Liverpool star center back Virgil Van Dijk, Bayern Munich star center back Matthijs de Ligt, and Manchester City star center back Nathan Aké. In the midfield, Barcelona star and previous Ajax wonderkind Frenkie De Jong leads a relatively weaker midfield. The attack is led by Barcelona attacker Memphis Depay, who will look to young, Everdivisie talent such as Cody Gakpo and Steven Bergwijn for support. The Netherlands backline can compete with any team in the tournament. The question is, will the midfield and attack be able to provide enough goals to win. If so, look for Netherlands as a relative dark horse amongst the favorites to go far.

Portugal

Odds to Win World Cup: +1400 (bet $100 to win $1,400)

FIFA Ranking: 9

Coach: Fernando Santos

5 Star Players: Rúben Dias (Defender, Manchester City), João Félix (Forward, Atlético Madrid), Bruno Fernandes, (Midfielder, Manchester United), Cristiano Ronaldo (Forward, Manchester United), Bernardo Silva (Midfielder, Manchester City)

Past World Cup Experience: 8 appearances, most recently in 2018. Best finish was 3rd place in 1966

Preview: The headline for Portugal in the 2022 World Cup is Cristiano Ronaldo. Ronaldo is one of, if not the, greatest players of all time. In what is his 5th World Cup at age 37, Ronaldo will look to become the first player ever to score at five different World Cups, but more importantly, lead his Portuguese team deep into the tournament. Much like with Netherlands, the Portuguese team is made up of a nearly even split of players from Europe’s top five leagues ( specifically the Premier League and Manchester teams) and from Portugal’s domestic league, Liga Portugal. Ronaldo will seek support in attack from youngsters like Joaó Félix and Rafael Leao, while what is likely to be an all Premier League starting midfielder will look to control the tempo and supply Portugal’s athletic forwards. The biggest question for Portugal is 1) the form of the recently out-of-form Ronaldo, and 2) will there be enough defensive talent around Ruben Dias for Portugal to go far. If Ronaldo is in form and the defense performs well, Portugal is another sleeper to make a deep run.

United States of America

Odds to Win World Cup: +15000 (bet $100 to win $15,000)

FIFA Ranking: 16

Manager: Gregg Berhalter

5 Star Players: Tyler Adams (Midfielder, Leeds United), Sergiño Dest (Defender, AC Milan), Weston McKennie (Midfielder, Juventus), Christian Pulisic (Attacker, Chelsea), Gio Reyna (Attacker, Borrusia Dortmund)

Past World Cup Experience: 11 appearances, most recent in 2014. Best finish was 3rd place in 1930

Preview: After missing out on the 2018 world cup, the USMNT and its supporters are excited to be in Qatar. After finishing 3rd in CONCACAF qualifying, they were placed in a group with England, Iran, and Wales. The USMNT is a young team with a roster filled with players who play across Europe and in the MLS. Notable names like Christian Pulisic and Gio Reyna will need to lead the attack, while a mix of both veteran defenders like Walker Zimmerman and younger defenders like Chris Richards will need to protect the back line for the USMNT to find success in this tournament. A big question mark is the status of Weston McKennie, who suffered a quadriceps injury on October 29th. If McKennie can get healthy, and the sometimes inconsistent Christian Pulisic is in form, look for the US to get out of the group and make a shocking upset or two in the knockout rounds. 

Bibliography:

Botros, Alena. “Americans Plan to Bet $1.8 Billion on the 2022 FIFA World Cup.” Fortune, 22 Nov. 2022, fortune.com/2022/11/22/americans-betting-fifa-world-cup-2022-gambling-soccer-football.  

Cronin, Benjamin. “The History of Soccer Betting and the Promise of Big Returns.” Pinnacle, www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Soccer/the-history-of-soccer-betting-and-the-promise-of-big-returns/G5V2W8HCKZFNSLCZ.

J, Jonathan. “History of Sports Betting in the United Kingdom.” Anglotopia.net, 5 Oct. 2022, anglotopia.net/news-features/history-of-sports-betting-in-the-united-kingdom.

Legal Sports Betting. “Legal Sports Betting in UK | UK Sports Betting Sites.” LegalSportsBetting.com, 17 Oct. 2022, www.legalsportsbetting.com/countries/united-kingdom.

McNair, Kamaron. “Americans Plan to Wager $1.8 Billion on the First World Cup With Widespread, Legal Sports Betting.” CNBC, 19 Nov. 2022, www.cnbc.com/2022/11/19/fifa-world-cup-2022-americans-to-bet-1point8-billion-dollars.html.

Min, 9. “7 Of the Most Infamous Match Fixing Scandals That Shook World Football.” Sports Illustrated, 1 Nov. 2019, www.si.com/soccer/2019/05/28/7-most-infamous-match-fixing-scandals-shook-world-football.

Purdum, David. “2022 World Cup: How FIFA Plans to Combat Match-fixing in Qatar.” ESPN.com, 16 Nov. 2022, www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/35033837/how-fifa-plans-combat-match-fixing-2022-world-cup-qatar.

Times, The New York. “Betting Scandals Have the World Cup on Guard.” The New York Times, 8 June 2006, www.nytimes.com/2006/06/08/sports/soccer/08soccer.html.

Wikipedia was used for general information about historical team performances at the World Cup