It's time to talk about methane.
Re-envisioning actions to enable methane reduction in the energy and waste sectors
"There's one move left to keep the planet from catastrophe — cutting methane as fast as we can from all sources."
Introduction
In 2021, 105 countries signed the Global Methane Pact, aiming for 40% reduction of methane from 2020 levels by 2030.
However, methane emissions are still on the rise across the country. While emitting facilites continue expanding, communities are bearing the brunt of climate change.
What is Methane?
Methane is a flammable, odorless hydrocarbon , consisting of one carbon atom and four hydrogen atoms.
Methane is a short-lived climate pollutant (SLCP). It persists in the atmosphere for a short period of 9 years, but is 86 times as potent as CO 2 in terms of its global warming potential.
Reducing methane levels has been declared critical to ensuring that global warming stays below 2 degrees Celsius.
Reducing methane emissions has numerous public health and environmental co-benefits.
Zooming in on California
California's methane emissions are largely from agriculture, as well as oil and gas and waste management.
California imports 85% of its natural gas supplies, largely from the Permian Basin, which has been identified as a site with high fugitive emissions. Hence, California's net methane footprint is higher than local estimates suggest.
Methane Leak Risk Facilities
In our story, we will be focusing on emissions from the energy sector and solid waste.
Energy and Fossil Fuels
Where are wells located?
CA is the second-largest oil producer in the US. A majority of fugitive emissions detected by aerial imagery were a result of upstream and downstream emissions
Oil and gas wells are most densely found in three counties - Kern, Los Angeles and Fresno.
Why should we care about wells?
California is the only major oil state without a health and safety setback from fossil fuel activity.
There have been 4,240 new wells since Gov. Newsom took office. 95% of them are in communities already overburdened with high pollution .
These students are predominantly Hispanic/non-white.
In addition to methane, oil and gas wells are responsible for high levels of PM2.5, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide, ozone and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) . There are many health risks directly linked to chronic exposure to these pollutants.
Landfills
Out of the 270 landfills surveyed in California, only 30 contributed to 40% of the total point-source emissions detected during the survey.
In 2016, superemitter landfills were found to underreport total GHG emissions on average by 44.3%.
Landfill emissions are currently regulated by Senate Bill 1383 which targets statewide reductions in Short-Lived Climate Pollutant (SLCP) emissions of 40 percent below 2013 levels by 2030 for methane and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs).
The directives for methane emissions call for a reduction in organic waste disposal by 50% by 2020 and 75% by 2025 and to rescue 20% of surplus food for human consumption by 2025.
Fugitive Emissions
What are Fugitive Emissions?
Downstream emissions, which includes gas transportation, storage and distribution, have had a tremendous impact on methane emissions in California.
2015, California’s most important source of energy was natural gas. The state imports about 95% of its gas making it extremely likely for emissions due to leaks to happen throughout the state. Yet, downstream emissions due to processing and distribution of natural gas are poorly regulated.
The overall trend of California’s fugitive emissions has been increasing from 2000 to 2018. The main sector responsible for this is oil and natural gas.
The Dangers of Fugitive Emissions
San Bruno after 2010 pipeline explosion.
Fugitive Emissions are extremely important and have been the cause of catastrophic events in the Bay Area. In 2010, a pipeline in San Bruno exploded due and killed 8 people, injured 58 and destroyed 38 homes .
What can we do about fugitive emissions?
There are three tiers of gas leaks: Grade 1 - Located in densely populated or high traffic areas Grade 2 - considered not to be of immediate risk to life or property, but potentially may become hazardous Grade 3 - deemed non-hazardous to life or property - not prioritized for repair
Leak Detection and Repair has the potential to reduce emissions due to leaks by 63%.
In 2020, the average repair time for Grade 3 leaks was 818 days. If Grade 3 leaks were fixed within 1 year, it is estimated that methane emissions can decrease by 48%.
Carbon Mapper
With imaging technology such as Carbon Mapper , LDAR has the potential to reduce emissions.
We believe that a new grading scheme that prioritizes the rate of leakage is necessary to address emissions from lower-grade leaks.
The Path Forward
By 2025, we estimate that California’s emissions need to be at around 370 million MT per year for the 2030 goal of 40% GHG reductions from 1990 levels set by the 2017 scoping plan. We believe that aerial sensing will be critical to ensuring that compliance is being maintained in all the sectors discussed. Hence, our 5-year plan largely consists of regular monitoring and goal-setting.
Source: International Energy Agency
What can we do beyond California?
Globally, the impact of wetlands and agriculture exceed the emissions from energy (shown on the right). This is to be expected, as the US is one of the biggest consumers of fossil fuel-derived energy. Hence, we cannot expect a strategy that works in California to be entirely replicable in reducing global emissions.
However, a shift from fossil fuel-based energy is still critical to reducing anthropogenic emissions. In addition, a framework for monitoring and holding governments accountable is critical.
Framework for accountability
The above framework was created with California's requirements, but its provisions can be easily extrapolated. Apart from ensuring short-term remediation measures are taken swiftly, we need information from the energy sector to be publically accessible. This enables three-way engagement from governments, citizens and the scientific community.
In conclusion, we need to talk about methane. The future of the planet depends on it.
Acknowledgements
We are extremely grateful to Dr. David Taillant, Dr. Amelia Murphy, Caitlan Fredericks and the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development for their continuous support and technical advice.
Thank you to Professor Tina Chow for being an encouraging force throughout the development of this project.
We are also really grateful for the tremendous help of our Graduate Student Instructor, Jennifer Hoody, who continuously offered resources and feedback on our report.
