The Oceans Are Rising and We're Not Ready
We compared sea level rise projections with a map of essential buildings and services in the United States. Here's what we found.
The world’s oceans are rising. Every year, seawater reaches farther inland, propelled by human-caused climate change and the burning of fossil fuels. In the United States and its territories, coastal communities are now grappling with what high tides and “sunny day flooding” might mean. How bad will it get? And where are the biggest risks?
New analysis from the Union of Concerned Scientists helps answer these questions. We found that that by 2050, climate change–driven sea level rise will expose more than 1,600 essential buildings and services to disruptive flooding an average of twice per year. Impacted infrastructure includes everything from K-12 schools to police and fire stations, wastewater treatment plants, and public housing.
Below, you’ll find maps of our results, along with a deeper dive into what this means for specific communities.
Critical infrastructure at risk of flooding twice per year, on average, by 2050 in a medium sea level rise scenario. A higher scenario would put more buildings and services at risk.
Let's look a little closer. Charleston, South Carolina, recorded more than 20 high-tide flooding events in 2023. During these episodes, high tides can send seawater spilling into the streets, block access, and swallow low-lying areas.
But high tides will only become more damaging. We expect at least 23 essential pieces of infrastructure in Charleston to flood at least twice annually, on average, by 2050, assuming a medium sea level rise scenario. Seventeen of those are public housing buildings—a crisis in the making, given the state's sizeable shortage of affordable rental housing.
Farther south, in a part of Florida famed for its waterfronts, are Cape Coral and Fort Myers. Flooding from Hurricane Ian in 2022 served as a stark reminder that storm surges, king tides, and encroaching seawater are a fact of life.
By 2050, more than 25 pieces of infrastructure across the Fort Myers region will face serious risks of flooding. These include post offices, police stations, health facilities, electrical substations, and public housing. Even for a region familiar with encroaching seawater, life will not look the same.
Across the country, similar stories emerge. Twenty minutes north of San Francisco lies San Rafael, California, a coastal community of 60,000. Folks who can afford to live in the hills do. Those who cannot tend to live closer to sea level, where rents are lower.
But for people living in San Rafael’s lowest-lying neighborhoods, the majority of whom identify as Hispanic or Latino, flooding is a very real risk. Already, high tides in combination with heavy rain from storms can make certain streets impassable. By 2050, an elementary school, four of the community’s six wastewater treatment plants, and six affordable housing facilities are expected to flood regularly.
Leadership is needed
So, what's next? We need decisionmakers, planners, and technical experts to take immediate steps to safeguard critical infrastructure. We need them centering science and equity, scaling up investment, and, in places with acute risks, exploring a human rights- based approach to retreat. (Read our full list of recommendations here ).
Zooming out, we need more comprehensive solutions. Phasing out fossil fuels , ramping up clean energy, and holding fossil fuel companies accountable must be cornerstones of climate resilience work. In truth, our collective willingness to stop polluting now will determine the scale of the problem late this century.
This pair of maps shows critical infrastructure at risk of flood twice per year, on average, by 2100 in either a low sea level rise scenario (left) or a high sea level rise scenario (right). Slide the arrows to the right to see more of the low scenario. Slide to the left to see more of the high scenario. Nationally, four times as much infrastructure is at risk with the high scenario than with the low scenario.
Read more about this work here . And get involved —we need you.
