Brewing Balkan War

Eastern Europe and the Balkans have been a point of contention and stress for the planet for some time now. My parents immigrated to the United States from Bosnia, as Serbians in the '90s because of the fighting and war effort which was mainly concentrated in Bosnia. That being said, I have been coerced into knowing more about this topic than most because of my family background. The Balkan region contained the match that lit the fire to the first world war, the Balkan region was Hitler's first venture into Eastern Europe in his gaze for power and was also the site of the dissolution of Yugoslavia in the Yugoslav war.

This map shows us buying power in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and from this we can see that the trends of buying power will give us a rough outline of the 2 different territories I will mention next. The lighter areas are a rough outline of Republika Srpska, and the darker areas with more buying power are part of the Federation of Bosnia & Herzegovina.

Now, what is going on in the Balkans right now? Well, ever since the dissolution of Yugoslavia in the '90s, Bosnia has had 2 "states" inside its borders, being two different jurisdictions in the same country. Republika Srpska controls the areas of Bosnia where there is a Serbian, Orthodox-Christian majority of the population. The Federation of Bosnia & Herzegovina controls areas that are a majority Bosnian and Muslim part of the population. Both have a dislike for each other due to each of the horrible things that one did to the other like genocide, bombing, raping, you know, your typical war stuff.

Fast forward to today, and the strength of the EU since the dissolution of Yugoslavia has only increased with each passing decade. Nowadays, western parts of the Balkans like Slovenia and Croatia are being admitted to the EU and the Serbian part of Bosnia is losing faith in the EU and are ignoring the EU's calls for them to join, which the Bosnian Federation part of the country would like to see happen. One of the conditions however to joining the EU is that the Serbian side of the country has to recognize war atrocities like the Srebrenica massacre, and the Serbian side does not want to recognize Srebrenica, and so has delayed any further venture into the "bid" for joining the EU.

It may not seem like a big enough deal for this to lead to war, but Republika Srpska has been interested in breaking off from the country of Bosnia and joining Serbia. Serbia has been coming closer to some type of alliance with Russia rather than the EU. Now, if this were to happen, war in the Balkans would definitely happen, but alliances and interests could somehow involve the entire world in this. Serbia would definitely come to the aid of Republika Srpska and parts of the EU and things like NATO would come to the aid of Bosnians. The U.S. interests in Western Europe and the EU would likely get them on the side of the Bosnians, like they had in the war in the 90's. Now we see that 2 huge superpowers like the U.S. and Russia are on opposing sides of a war, which would thrust them int a cold war with each other, possibly leading to catastrophic endings. That is why I believe this current event, has some kind of a significant weight, because the outcome can affect a lot more people than you might think.

Bloomberg. (n.d.). Is Europe Sleepwalking Into Another Balkan War? Bloomberg.com. Retrieved November 16, 2021, from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-09-12/playing-with-fire-in-europe-s-powder-keg.

Bosnian war children's photos. What Next? (2019, September 29). Retrieved November 16, 2021, from https://maryloudriedger2.wordpress.com/tag/bosnian-war-childrens-photos/.

Desk, W. (2021, November 4). Bosnia Faces 'existential threat', says envoy. the ethnic tensions in Balkans, explained. The Week. Retrieved November 16, 2021, from https://www.theweek.in/news/world/2021/11/04/bosnia-faces-existential-threat-says-envoy-the-ethnic-tensions-balkans-explained.html.

Kurt Bassuener and Senada Šelo ŠabićOctober 22, Kurt Bassuener and Senada Šelo Šabić, Bassuener, K., & Šabić, S. Š. (2021, October 22). Peace is threatened again in Bosnia, a quarter century after Dayton. Just Security. Retrieved November 16, 2021, from https://www.justsecurity.org/78703/peace-is-threatened-again-in-bosnia-a-quarter-century-after-dayton/.

McGee, L. (2021, November 6). Analysis: A dangerous crisis is brewing in the Balkans. CNN. Retrieved November 16, 2021, from https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/06/europe/bosnia-serb-secession-threat-intl-cmd/index.html. 

Milos Magazin, Bosnian Demographic [Map] 1:2. Flagstaff, Arizona: ArcGIS, 2021.