Suburban Residential Growth 2024-2028

Introduction

Calgary continues to grow at a record pace and new communities continue to provide the majority of new housing supply in the city.
Calgary continues to grow at a record pace and new communities continue to provide the majority of new housing supply in the city.

The Suburban Residential Growth (SRG) Storymap provides comprehensive data and forward-looking information on capacity and forecasting as it relates to land, housing units, and population in Calgary’s new communities. This storymap relies upon housing growth forecasts provided by The City of Calgary’s Corporate Economics division, industry input, local area planning, and the goals outlined in the Municipal Development Plan.

The information provided here is used to assist in ensuring short term (five years) growth capacity is supported by existing and planned municipal capital infrastructure investments (emergency response, mobility, sanitary, storm, and water). It is used to examine the balance between residential land demand and supply over the coming five-year period. The intent is to identify whether a sufficient supply of readily developable land exists, in a variety of locations, to facilitate competitive land and housing markets while maintaining responsible fiscal management of City resources.

In terms of growth, The City’s long-term goal is to strike a balance between developed and developing areas, as set out in the Municipal Development Plan (MDP). With regards to developing areas, two major targets are identified within the plan. The first target is to maintain a 3-to-5-year supply of serviced land (land with City funded capital infrastructure in place) and the second target is to maintain up to a 15-year supply of planned land (Area Structure Plans in place). The City recognizes that the numbers stated are based on an overall city-wide capacity as articulated in the MDP and it should be noted that capacity varies at a sectoral level and at different stages of development.

Construction
Construction

The SRG storymap seeks to provide an accurate picture of new communities, residential development inventory and forecasted growth in the 2024-2028 time period. The inventory is prepared in collaboration with City infrastructure departments and is reviewed by BILD Calgary Region.

The report does not make policy recommendations or identify explicit budget priorities; its contribution lies in providing a comprehensive information base to support planning, development, and City investment decisions in the short-term. The annual updates to this report include:

  • a land, unit and population inventory (existing and potential capacity) of Calgary’s growth capacity as of May 1, 2024;
  • a review of historical development (building permit issued) activity citywide in developing areas from January 1, 2019, to December 31, 2023;
  • a five-year forecast of housing units by housing category by sector from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2028; and
  • an analysis of required capital infrastructure and serviced land supply by sector as of December 31, 2024. This information is obtained by consulting with The City's infrastructure departments regarding the expected completion status of capital infrastructure projects by year-end.
Open Space in Suburban Community

The Market

Calgary Economic Region

The Calgary Economic Region (CER) comprises the City of Calgary and its neighboring municipalities. Over the past five years, the region has seen a total of 75,272 housing starts, with Calgary accounting for 62,739 of these, representing a market share of 83 per cent.

Table 1: Annual new CER housing starts for 2019-2023 from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC)

Table 1: Annual new CER housing starts for 2019-2023 from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC)

Calgary Census Metropolitan Area

The Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) consists of the City of Calgary, Airdrie, Beiseker, Chestermere, Cochrane, Crossfield, Irricana and Rocky View County. This area had a population of 1,682,509 in 2023 and is projected to increase by 265,323 people to 1,947,832 by 2028.

In 2023, the CMA added 19,579 new housing starts, which was an all-time record. In the next 5 years, 97,215 total housing starts within the CMA are forecasted, averaging 19,443 housing starts per year.

Table 2: Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) annual historical and forecast housing starts from the Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2024-2029: Spring 2024 Report

Table 2: Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) annual historical and forecast housing starts from the Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2024-2029: Spring 2024 Report

Calgary

Calgary, the largest urban center in the CMA, is forecasted to grow by 165,243 people over the next five years, meaning the city’s population would reach 1,588,078 people in 2028.

The City of Calgary accounted for 16,679 housing starts in 2023. Over the last five years, Calgary averaged an 86 per cent market share Forecasts estimates Calgary will achieve a total of 82,952 starts, representing 85 per cent of the CMA share, over the next five years. Considering current housing demand, the five-year forecast projects an average of 16,590 housing starts per year, which represents record levels. For further information on the housing and population forecast dynamics please view the  Calgary & Region Population Outlook 2024-2029: Spring 2024  report available on The City of Calgary web site.

Table 3: Annual historical and forecast numbers from the Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2024-2029: Spring 2024 Report

Table 3: Annual historical and forecast numbers from the Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2024-2029: Spring 2024 Report

New Communities

There are 41 Council approved new communities in various stages of development in the city. New communities are building out in every planning sector, providing choice in location. Included in these new communities are five communities (Huxley, Keystone Hills, Osprey Hill, Symons Valley Ranch and Twinhills) that currently do not have any new homes constructed and are categorized as future communities. In addition, new communities will be added as part of future approvals through Growth Applications and associated funding decisions made through City budgetary decisions. These communities will be included in the SRG storymap once the community boundaries are approved by Council.

Building in construction.
Map Legend

Historical

New Housing Units

In the last five years, City of Calgary building permit data shows that there were 60,698 total new housing units issued in Calgary, averaging 12,140 housing units per year. Single/semi housing units accounted for 42 per cent of the citywide share while multi-residential contributed 58 per cent.

Chart 1: Housing Units – Citywide Five-Year Averageannual average over the last five years

Chart 1: Housing Units – Citywide annual average over the last five years

New communities captured 66 per cent annually, on average over the last five years, with the rest of city absorbing the remaining 34 per cent.

Chart 2: Housing Units – New Communities versus Rest of City annual average over the last five years

Chart 2: Housing Units – New Communities versus Rest of City annual average over the last five years

In 2023, new communities captured 75 per cent of the citywide market share with 5,103 single/semi housing units and 6,422 multi-residential housing units.

Chart 3: Historic distribution of housing units over the last five years.

Chart 3: Historic distribution of housing units over the last five years.

Sector Growth

Over the last five years, four sectors have taken 85 per cent of the new communities market share. The North leads all sectors at 26 per cent, followed by the Northeast at 21 per cent, with the Southeast and South sectors both at 19 per cent.

Chart 4: Average housing unit growth by sector over the last five years


Chart 5: Historical Sector Singlesingle/Semi semi Housing Unitshousing UnitsuUnit Vvolumes by sSectorsUnits

Chart 5: Historical single/semi housing unit volumes by sector

Chart 6: Historical multi-residential housing unit volumes by sector

Chart 6: Historical multi-residential housing unit volumes by sector

Historical Dashboard

Forecast

Sector Growth 2024-2028

Forecasts for 2024-2028 estimate that 54,873 (10,975 housing units per year on average) of combined single/semi and multi-residential housing units will be absorbed into new communities within the seven sectors. This is an increase of 62 per cent compared to the last five years. Within the forecasted period, new communities have the vacant capacity to provide housing for an estimated 155,982 people with an average of 31,196 people per year.

Table 4: Housing unit and estimated population forecast, 2024-2028, by sector (annual housing unit numbers are based on City of Calgary building permits)

Table 4: Housing unit and estimated population forecast, 2024-2028, by sector (annual housing unit numbers are based on City of Calgary building permits)

On a sector basis, the forecast of total units (single/semi and multi-residential) suggests three sectors will capture 70 per cent of the total growth within new communities. The North leading at 27 percent, followed by the South at 23 percent, and the Southeast at 20 percent.

In the Northeast sector available land is decreasing, therefore, vacant supply will reduce to 11 per cent over the next five years. The Northwest and the East sector are predicted to increase its share gradually as communities within these areas mature. The West sector is forecasted to maintain a relatively stable growth rate over the next five years. 

Chart 7: Forecasted share, 2024-2028, by sector

Forecast Dashboard

Land Supply

The City annually conducts an inventory of available land within the city’s boundaries to track development and vacant capacity. This data assists Administration in determining strategic decisions that maintain vacant land supply targets stated in the MDP. Land is initially, grouped as unplanned and planned land. The SRG focuses on planned land (areas with an approved ASP) and further categorizes into Not Yet Approved, Approved – Not Yet Serviced and Approved – Serviced Land.

Approvals Continuum

Approvals Continuum

Planned Land Supply

Planned land supply includes areas with an approved Area Structure Plan in place as of May 2024. These plans are policy documents that set the basic framework for more detailed land use, school, mobility and servicing components. They are the starting point of any new community development. In the SRG, land supply is calculated at various stages in the approvals continuum with a particular focus on vacant supply up until the subdivision process. It is up to this stage in the continuum that The City is responsible in ensuring major capital infrastructure is in place for development to progress.

Currently, there is vacant planned land capacity to accommodate 171,138 total housing units, including 89,872 single/semi and 81,266 multi-residential housing units on 5,449 net developable hectares of land. It is estimated 486,233 people can be accommodated within the planned land at full build out. Based on the five-year forecast, the average yearly absorption would result in 14 to 18 years of vacant planned land supply.  The current record levels of growth may not be sustained, therefore when utilizing longer-range forecasts, such as the 10-year annual historical average, there is an expected availability of 20 to 27 years of vacant planned land supply.

It is important to note that land supply varies on a sectoral level as it moves through the different stages of development. Furthermore, as land moves through the development continuum, unit counts are updated as more detailed information becomes available at the land use, outline plan and subdivision stages.

Table 5: Current Vacant Planned Land Supply by housing units and population, by sector

Table 5:  Current Vacant Planned Land Supply by housing units and population, by sector

Table 6: Current Planned land – by years of supply, based on the five year forecast by sector

Table 6: Current Planned land by years of supply, based on the five year forecast by sector

The planned land supply is broken down into three categories considering current servicing status and funding: Not Yet Approved, Approved – Not Yet Serviced and Approved – Serviced. Approval status refers to whether The City has financially committed to the necessary infrastructure and service investments through an approved business case or Growth Application. It does not refer to the status of land use or outline plan approval. Servicing status refers to whether the land has access to the necessary capital infrastructure to initiate development.

Land Supply Map Legend

Not Yet Approved

Includes vacant planned land that does not have an approved business case or Growth Application, and may or may not be serviced with no commitments to build the necessary infrastructure. These areas are not expected to have development in the short term. As of May 2024, at current growth rates, there is 4 to 5 years of land supply, with a capacity of 30,461 single/semi and 20,349 multi-residential housing units able to accommodate an estimated 149,045 people.

Approved – Not Yet Serviced

Includes areas within vacant planned land where The City has financially committed to build the necessary leading infrastructure to service this land through previous budget decisions associated with approved business cases or Growth Applications, but the infrastructure is not expected to be in place as of 2024 December 31. There is Approved – Not Yet Serviced land supply that could accommodate 37,905 total housing units, including 20,067 single/semi and 17,838 multi-residential housing units on 1,104 net developable hectares of land. These lands are estimated to house 107,895 people at full build out, providing an additional 3 to 4 years of supply at current growth rates.

Approved - Serviced

Includes vacant planned land that has the necessary capital infrastructure (emergency response, mobility, sanitary, storm and water) to allow for development, approved either through previous budget decisions associated with an approved business case or Growth Application. As of May 2024, at current growth rates, there is 7 to 9 years of approved - serviced land supply, with a capacity of 39,344 single/semi and 43,079 multi-residential housing units for 229,292 people. These areas consist of subdivided and unsubdivided lands located in new communities without any capital infrastructure constraints to initiate development.

New Community Development Aerial View

Servicing

Serviced lands are areas where The City’s infrastructure for emergency response, mobility, sanitary, storm, and water services are in place. The City takes on the responsibility of coordinating investment in infrastructure to maintain a sufficient supply of vacant land that aligns with approved citywide policy. For developers and builders to advance development, it is crucial that the five essential infrastructure services are in place. In some cases, developer-funded infrastructure could still be required for ultimate servicing.

The following maps contain data on serviced land within planned land based on infrastructure service availability and detail specific considerations for potential development in unserviced areas. These considerations will be assessed on a case-by-case basis, with development only proceeding in areas where city requirements can be met or if plans for servicing improvements are agreed upon by both The City and the developer.

Emergency Response

Emergency response is important in providing fire safety in new communities. Serviced areas are shown to have adequate emergency coverage in place for development to occur. This coverage continues to expand as emergency response stations and local street networks are built. Hatched areas show where future emergency response infrastructure is required to meet the council mandated 7-minute response time.

Emergency response servicing map legend

Mobility

Mobility networks are key in managing the flow of goods and people. It focuses on major capital infrastructure projects such as rail and creek crossings, interchanges, overpasses, skeletal roads, road enhancements such as widenings, and pedways.

Servicing constraints are known in the North, Northeast, East and South sectors where additional infrastructure is required to meet the demand of the area. Subdivisions are approved on a case-by-case basis in accordance with the local Transportation Impact Analysis (TIA).

Mobility servicing map legend

 “This map includes conceptual locations for emergency response, mobility, sanitary, storm and water infrastructure. No representation is made that a particular site for City investment, as indicated on this map, will be made. Site specific assessment and, where necessary, neighboring municipal interests must be considered before any City investment and delivery decisions are made.” 

Sanitary

Sanitary infrastructure includes city constructed trunks and lift stations to transport wastewater from the local sanitary network (which collects wastewater from homes) to the various wastewater treatment plants in the city.

Sanitary servicing map legend

Storm

Storm infrastructure includes city constructed trunks and related infrastructure that collects and discharges stormwater flows from local stormwater networks and storage facilities.

Storm servicing map legend

 “This map includes conceptual locations for emergency response, mobility, sanitary, storm and water infrastructure. No representation is made that a particular site for City investment, as indicated on this map, will be made. Site specific assessment and, where necessary, neighboring municipal interests must be considered before any City investment and delivery decisions are made.” 

Water

Water infrastructure includes larger diameter water mains (feedermains), pump stations, reservoirs, and related infrastructure for the supply and delivery of potable water to new communities.

Infrastructure delivery, and most prevalent for water infrastructure, is often staged.  This can impact servicing for certain categories of development, depending on the required fire flow for servicing.   When infrastructure is funded, construction phasing and staging can be impacted by multiple factors, which can influence full build-out of serviced land.

Water servicing map legend

 “This map includes conceptual locations for emergency response, mobility, sanitary, storm and water infrastructure. No representation is made that a particular site for City investment, as indicated on this map, will be made. Site specific assessment and, where necessary, neighboring municipal interests must be considered before any City investment and delivery decisions are made.” 

Sector Analysis

As of May 2024, there are 41 new communities within the seven planning sectors with varying degrees of vacant supply in three categories: not yet approved, approved – not yet serviced and approved – serviced.

Plan Land and Infrastructure Map Legend

  “This map includes conceptual locations for emergency response, mobility, sanitary, storm and water infrastructure. No representation is made that a particular site for City investment, as indicated on this map, will be made. Site specific assessment and, where necessary, neighboring municipal interests must be considered before any City investment and delivery decisions are made.” 

North Sector

In the North sector there are ten new communities at various stages of build out: Carrington, Glacier Ridge, Keystone Hills, Kincora, Lewisburg, Livingston, Moraine (formerly Ambleton), Nolan Hill, Sage Hill, and Symons Valley Ranch. Of these, three communities (Kincora, Nolan Hill and Sage Hill) are close to full build-out with mostly multi-residential supply remaining. Five communities (Carrington, Glacier Ridge, Lewisburg, Livingston and Moraine) are currently under development while Keystone Hills and Symons Valley Ranch are at early stages of development.

Chart 8: North Sector, land supply by category and community

Chart 8: North sector, land supply by category and community

The North sector accounted for 26 per cent of total unit growth between 2019 and 2023, adding 2,067 housing units per year on average. The forecast for 2024 estimates an increase to 27 per cent of the new community share with an average of 2,956 housing units per year. Business cases that have received approval within this sector, as outlined in the 2023-2026 Service Plans and Budgets, will result in additional supply once the land is prepared for development.

The following table displays the known emergency response, mobility, sanitary, storm and water infrastructure requirements for unserviced areas in any approved Area Structure Plans in the sector.

Table 7: North Sector infrastructure requirements

Table 7: North sector infrastructure requirements

Northeast Sector

In the Northeast sector there are six new communities: Cityscape, Cornerstone, Homestead, Redstone, Saddle Ridge, and Skyview Ranch. Of these six communities, Redstone and Skyview Ranch have exhausted their single/semi supply with remaining multi-residential supply continuing to be built as these communities mature.

The Northeast sector accounted for 21 per cent of total unit growth between 2019 and 2023, adding 1,735 housing units per year on average. Forecasts for 2024-2028 are estimating a decrease to 11 per cent of the new community share with an average of 1,176 housing units per year.

Chart 9: Northeast land supply by category and community

Chart 9: Northeast land supply by category and community

The following table displays the known emergency response, mobility, sanitary, storm and water infrastructure requirements for unserviced areas in any approved Area Structure Plans in the sector.

Table 8: Northeast Sector infrastructure requirements

Table 8: Northeast sector infrastructure requirements

East Sector

The East sector has three new communities: Belvedere, Huxley and Twinhills. Portions of Belvedere are currently developing, Huxley is in early stages of development, and Twinhills has not commenced development. The East sector currently requires delivery of mobility and utility infrastructure that is unfunded, as well as funded utility infrastructure that has not yet been delivered.

The East sector accounted for 3 per cent of total unit growth between 2019 and 2023, adding 222 housing units per year on average. Forecasts for 2024-2028 are estimating an increase to 7 per cent of the new community share with an average of 830 housing units per year.

Chart 10: East sector land supply by category and community

Chart 10: East sector land supply by category and community

The following table displays the known emergency response, mobility, sanitary, storm and water infrastructure requirements for unserviced areas in any approved Area Structure Plans in the sector.

Table 9: East sector infrastructure requirements

Table 9: East sector infrastructure requirements

Southeast Sector

In the Southeast sector, there are six new communities: Copperfield, Hotchkiss, Mahogany, Rangeview, Ricardo Ranch and Seton. Hotchkiss and Ricardo Ranch are at the early stages of development compared to Copperfield and Cranston which has nearly exhausted its single/semi and multi-residential supply. Mahogany, Rangeview and Seton are in their peak developing stages with most of the units being built in these communities within this sector.

The Southeast sector accounted for 19 per cent of total unit growth between 2019 and 2023, adding 1,522 units per year on average. Forecasts for 2024-2028 are estimating an increase to 20 per cent of the new community share with an average of 2,200 units per year.

Chart 11: Southeast sector land supply by category and community

Chart 11: Southeast sector land supply by category and community

The following table displays the known emergency response, mobility, sanitary, storm and water infrastructure requirements for unserviced areas in any approved Area Structure Plans in the sector.

Table 10: Southeast sector infrastructure requirements

Table 10: Southeast sector infrastructure requirements

South Sector

In the South sector, there are eight new communities: Alpine Park, Belmont, Legacy, Pine Creek, Silverado, Walden, Wolf Willow and Yorkville. The community of Walden is expected to build out during the forecasted period considering single/semi demand and available supply.

The South sector accounted for 19 per cent of total unit growth between 2019 and 2023, adding 1,513 units per year on average. Forecasts for 2024-2028 are estimating an increase to 23 per cent of the new community share with an average of 2,506 units per year. This is due to the increase in available vacant approved-service land and number of actively developing communities within this sector.

Chart 12: South sector land supply by category and community

Chart 12: South sector land supply by category and community

The following table displays the known emergency response, mobility, sanitary, storm and water infrastructure requirements for unserviced areas in any approved Area Structure Plans in the sector.

Table 11: South sector infrastructure requirements

Table 11: South sector infrastructure requirements

West Sector

In the West sector there are six new communities: Aspen Woods, Crestmont, Osprey Hill, Medicine Hill, Springbank Hill and West Springs. Of the six new communities, Aspen Woods is in the final stages of development and Crestmont is expected to exhaust its single/semi supply during the forecasted period. The community of Osprey Hill is in the initial stages of development with new construction to begin within the next two years.

The West sector accounted for 9 per cent of total unit growth between 2019 and 2023, adding 762 housing units per year on average. Forecasts for 2024-2028 are projecting the west sector to sustain a similar share of 8 per cent of new community absorption, averaging 832 housing units per year.

Chart 13: West sector land supply by category and community

Chart 13: West sector land supply by category and community

The following table displays the known emergency response, mobility, sanitary, storm and water infrastructure requirements for unserviced areas in any approved Area Structure Plans in the sector.

Table 12: West sector infrastructure requirements

Table 12: West sector infrastructure requirements

Northwest Sector

The Northwest sector has two new communities, Greenwood/Greenbriar and Haskayne. Haskayne and Greenwood/Greenbriar are currently under development with Greenwood/Greenbriar increasing its single/semi housing absorption in 2024.

The Northwest sector accounted for 3 per cent of total unit growth between 2019 and 2023, adding 210 housing units per year on average. Forecasts for 2024-2028 are estimating an increase  to 4 per cent of the new community share with an average of 474 housing units per year.

Chart 14: Northwest sector land supply by category and community

Chart 14: Northwest sector land supply by category and community

The following table displays the known emergency response, mobility, sanitary, storm and water infrastructure requirements for unserviced areas in any approved Area Structure Plans in the sector.

Table 13: Northwest sector infrastructure requirements

Table 13: Northwest sector infrastructure requirements

Land Supply Dashboard

Conclusion

New communities are important in providing housing opportunities as Calgary grows, enabling affordable and diverse housing choices for Calgarians. Calgary has become a top destination for international and interprovincial migration leading to a surge in population resulting in an increase in demand for more housing supply. In 2023, new communities captured 75 per cent of the citywide total units, absorbing 11,525 units (5,103 single/semi and 6,422 multi-residential). Meanwhile, the rest of the city issued 25 per cent of the citywide total units, absorbing 3,861 units (888 single/semi and 2,973 multi-residential).

In light of rising housing costs, recent trends indicate a shift towards multi-residential developments, with a greater number of units being constructed in comparison to single-detached or semi-detached units. Given the ongoing low vacancy rates and increasing rental prices, it is anticipated that multi-residential units will continue to capture a larger share of the market in the foreseeable future.

McKenzie Towne

During the 2024 to 2028 time period, Calgary is estimated to gain 165,243 people as a result of increased migration both inter-provincially and internationally driving up demand for housing. New communities are projected to provide 54,873 homes to an estimated 155,982 people in the next five years. It is forecasted that the North will lead all sectors with the highest share of absorption followed by the South and Southeast sectors as a result of available vacant supply in the development continuum.

The City of Calgary strives to maintain a healthy supply of land for housing, ensuring there are no supply constraints related to City servicing in the short and medium runs, and for planning in the long run. Using the five-year annual average forecast absorption rate, there is 7 to 9 years of approved and serviced land available as of 2024 May. In addition, there is approximately 3 to 4 years of land supply approved but not yet serviced where Council has committed to funding future capital infrastructure in approved communities for their full build out. Finally, combined with 4 to 5 years of not yet approved land, there is a total of 14 to 18 years of planned land supply available. Given that we are currently experiencing a high growth scenario, it is unlikely that absorption will maintain at record levels and that when using the ten-year annual historic average, there would be 20 to 27 years of planned land supply comprising of 10 to 13 years of serviced land, 4 to 6 years of approved but not yet serviced land and 6 to 8 years of not yet approved land supply.

Suburban Residential Growth 2024 - 2028 provides information on the 41 new communities in the city. An additional eight new business cases for new community development were approved in 2022 to support housing choice and affordability into the future providing additional land supply to keep up with housing demand. As well, new community Growth Applications (previously Business Cases) are now continuously reviewed by The City, and the investment requirement for four new Growth Applications will be decided by Council in November 2024. The City acknowledges that supply varies through the development continuum and unforeseen external factors may affect land supply. Housing supply past the subdivision process may also be impacted due to labour shortages and supply chain constraints. This is reflected in the forecasted housing starts with The City recognizing that population growth may outpace housing growth in the short term.

Methodology

Density Calculation

Gross Residential Density is calculated by dividing total number of residential housing units by the gross residential area. The first step is to calculate gross developable area which is gross total area minus non-developable areas (environmental reserves, expressways, railways, other non-developable lands. The second step is to calculate gross residential area which is gross developable area minus regional land uses (regional open spaces, major commercial centres [>4ha/10ac], senior high schools, industrial areas, public lakes and water bodies, other regional uses).

Density Methodology Diagram

Density Methodology Diagram

Occupancy Rates

Occupancy rates or persons per unit (ppu) are used to generate population assumptions derived from the 2021 Federal Census.  The SRG uses occupancy rates which are calculated based on the single/semi and multi-residential housing groups in developing areas. A rate of 3.43 ppu is assigned for single-detached and semi-detached housing types and a rate of 2.19 ppu is used for multi-residential housing which includes rowhouses, townhouses and apartments. Currently, secondary suite occupancy rates are not provided through the federal census dataset therefore are not included in the population assumptions.

Land Supply Inventory

The Suburban Residential Land Supply data is compiled using a consolidation of City of Calgary data including building permits, subdivision plans, land use amendments, Outline Plans, Area Structure Plans, property assessments, capital servicing information, and non-developable features such as hydrology and environmental reserve. Automated geo-processing is used to extract and analyze this data to identify developable legal parcels and their stage in the development continuum. Dwelling unit estimates are based on the development stage of the parcel. For example, for unsubdivided lands with an Outline Plan, the densities approved in the Outline Plan will be used to estimate dwelling unit capacity. Where subdivision has occurred, proposed lots are used to estimate dwelling unit capacity. Housing units proposed through issued building permits are used to delineate absorbed lands versus vacant lands.

Dwelling Unit Estimation Methods for Each Stage of the Planning Continuum

Forecast Methodology

The forecast relies on overall housing starts data reported in the Calgary & Region Population Outlook 2024-2029: Spring 2024. This information is used in conjunction with historic averages to determine the percentage split in housing type based on location.

A single/semi and multi-residential forecast is then generated based on current community profiles and strong indicators which include vacant subdivided supply, total supply, community age and number of actively developing communities in the reporting year to forecast housing units. The current community profiles are then assessed against communities with similar historical context. This results in a list of community profiles with a housing start share that is then averaged to account for variations in the market. The result is a forecast share by sector in alignment with the Corporate Economics forecast.

Glossary

Absorbed: built out areas where The City has reviewed a building permit application and has granted approval for the applicant to start construction.

Area Redevelopment Plan (ARP): a statutory plan as defined by the Municipal Government Act, that directs the redevelopment, preservation or rehabilitation of existing lands and buildings, generally within existing areas of the city.

Area Structure Plan (ASP): a statutory plan as defined by the Municipal Government Act, that directs the future land use patterns, transportation and utility networks and sequence of development in new communities.

Approved Subdivision: the division of a parcel of land by an instrument that has been reviewed and approved by administration.

Building Permit: a permit issued by The City to erect a new building or structure or to demolish, relocate, repair, alter or make additions to an existing building or structure.

Calgary Economic Region (CER): Alberta economic region that covers the City of Calgary and its surrounding twenty two cities, towns, villages, and Indian reserves including: Airdrie (City), Beiseker (Village), Black Diamond (Town), Calgary (City), Carstairs (Town), Chestermere (City), Cochrane (Town), Cremona (Village), Crossfield (Town), Didsbury (Town), Eden Valley 216 (Indian reserve), Foothills No. 31 (Municipal district), High River (Town), Irricana (Town), Longview (Village), Mountain View County (Municipal district), Okotoks (Town), Olds (Town), Rocky View County (Municipal district), Sundre (Town), Tsuu T’ina Nation 145 (Sarcee 145) (Indian reserve), Turner Valley (Town).

Capital Infrastructure: infrastructure developed by the City of Calgary providing emergency services, transportation and major utility (water, sanitary, storm).

Census Metropolitan Area (CMA): is an area consisting of one or more neighbouring municipalities from around a major urban core. A CMA must have a total population of at least 100,000 of which 50,000 or more live in the urban core.

Density: a measure of the number of dwelling units on a parcel of land, express in units per hectare or in units per parcel, but does not include secondary suites or backyard suites.

Development Permit: a document authorizing a development, issued by a Development Authority pursuant to the Land Use Bylaw or any previous Bylaw governing land use within the city, and includes the plans and conditions of approval.

Dwelling Units: general term that refers to residential homes.

Emergency Services: are services provided by fire and emergency response teams.

Environmental Reserve: lands that have been dedicated to the municipality by the developer of a subdivision as part of the subdivision approval process. Environmental reserves are those lands that are considered  undevelopable and may consist of a swamp, gully, ravine, coulee or natural drainage course, or may be lands that are subject to flooding or are considered unstable.

Gross Developable Area: the total area of a parcel of land, less the land required to be provided as environmental reserve and other non-developable lands.

Growth Applications: a submission made to The City of Calgary representing the opportunities and costs associated with an area of new community growth. The submission details how the proposed growth aligns with set criteria. Council will decide whether or not to approve the growth application, where a decision to approve means the required capital and operating investments will be added to the budget and implemented by Administration such that growth can be initiated in accordance with other planning application decisions.

Housing Starts: are an economic indicator used by Statistics Canada that reflect the number of residential housing projects that have been started over a specific length of time.

Housing Units: is a measure used by the City of Calgary that refers to projects that have been issued a building permit allowing for construction to start.

Indicator: a variable that is representative of progress towards the achievement of an objective, policy or action.

Infrastructure: the physical structures that support public goods and government services, including but not limited to roads, transit, water, sewers, parks, libraries, recreation centres, power grids, and telecommunications.

Interchange: a highway intersection designed to permit traffic to move freely from one road to another without crossing another line of traffic.

Land Use Bylaw: legislative document that regulates development and land use in Calgary and informs decisions regarding planning applications.

Multi-residential Development: a residential development of one or more buildings, each containing a minimum of three units in total. These developments consist of rowhouses, townhouses and apartment buildings.

Municipal Development Plan (MDP): a statutory plan that establishes policies for land use for future growth in the entire municipality in accordance with the Municipal Government Act.

Natural Increase: is the variation in the population size over a given period as a result of the difference between the numbers of births and deaths.

Net Developable Area: is the extent of the site area or parcel area upon which one or more buildings or other operations and their ancillary space can be built.

Net Density: means the number of dwelling units per acre or hectare of Net Developable Area.

New Communities: are areas located within the Planned Greenfield with Area Structure Plan (ASP) typology on Map 1: Urban Structure of the Municipal Development Plan. These are residential communities approved by Council and monitored in this document.

Outline Plan/Land Use Amendment Application: detailed planning and design of new communities, or the redevelopment of large areas of existing communities, is done through the Outline Plan and Subdivision process. This involves design details such as the preservation of environmental areas, open space locations and reserve dedications, development patterns, land use mixes and local street networks.

Park: open space that is managed to provide opportunities for recreation, education, cultural or aesthetic use.

Rest of City: are communities that are considered built out reaching a unit threshold of less than 50 single/semi dwelling units and 250 multi-residential dwelling units remaining.

Unit: means a Dwelling Unit.

Vacant Land Supply: measures of supply or capacity that include vacant registered lots, vacant approved tentative plans (subdivided), vacant remaining approved land use and vacant remaining Area Structure Plans.

Copperfield pond

Industry Comments

BILD Letter

BILD Letter

 

About

This storymap was created by the Growth Analytics team in collaboration with internal City departments and industry. We are grateful for the contribution of BILD (Building Industry and Land Development) in preparing this content.

The City of Calgary provides this information in good faith but it provides no warranty, nor accepts any liability from any incorrect, incomplete or misleading information or its improper use. No part of this material may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electrical or mechanical, including photocopying, or transmitting or by an information storage or retrieval system, without acknowledgement of the Suburban Residential Growth 2024-2028.

©The City of Calgary 2024

Author  

Growth Analytics | City and Regional Planning |  Planning & Development Services

Status

ISC: Unrestricted 

Published Date 

TBD

Phone

311 or Outside of Calgary 403-268-5311

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City of Calgary

Growth Analytics

Rayner D'Souza

Nancy Pham

Brenna Mowbray

Alan Martin

Matthew Sheldrake

Mapping Services

Sonia Morales

Creative Services

Pat Wong

Communications

Tracy Sales

Utilities Infrastructure Planning

Olga Abramovich, Kimberly Kahan

Calgary Fire

Muhammad Muhammad

Public Space & Mobility Infrastructure Planning

Sean Swanton

Approvals Continuum

Density Methodology Diagram

BILD Letter

Table 1: Annual new CER housing starts for 2019-2023 from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC)

Table 2: Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) annual historical and forecast housing starts from the Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2024-2029: Spring 2024 Report

Table 3: Annual historical and forecast numbers from the Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2024-2029: Spring 2024 Report

Chart 1: Housing Units – Citywide annual average over the last five years

Chart 2: Housing Units – New Communities versus Rest of City annual average over the last five years

Chart 3: Historic distribution of housing units over the last five years.

Chart 4: Average housing unit growth by sector over the last five years

Chart 5: Historical single/semi housing unit volumes by sector

Chart 6: Historical multi-residential housing unit volumes by sector

Table 4: Housing unit and estimated population forecast, 2024-2028, by sector (annual housing unit numbers are based on City of Calgary building permits)

Chart 7: Forecasted share, 2024-2028, by sector

Table 5:  Current Vacant Planned Land Supply by housing units and population, by sector

Table 6: Current Planned land by years of supply, based on the five year forecast by sector

Chart 8: North sector, land supply by category and community

Table 7: North sector infrastructure requirements

Chart 9: Northeast land supply by category and community

Table 8: Northeast sector infrastructure requirements

Chart 10: East sector land supply by category and community

Table 9: East sector infrastructure requirements

Chart 11: Southeast sector land supply by category and community

Table 10: Southeast sector infrastructure requirements

Chart 12: South sector land supply by category and community

Table 11: South sector infrastructure requirements

Chart 13: West sector land supply by category and community

Table 12: West sector infrastructure requirements

Chart 14: Northwest sector land supply by category and community

Table 13: Northwest sector infrastructure requirements