Travis County Poverty Brief
June 2022
June 2022
Special Note: This is a report and analysis of data focused on the five year period 2016-2020, and may not fully reflect the impacts on poverty that have occurred due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
For prior versions of this report, please visit the Research & Planning Supplemental Reports .
When it comes to reporting data on poverty and residents experiencing economic hardship, information can easily be misinterpreted and sometimes create unintended consequences. Such consequences include perpetuating negative stereotypes and feeding narratives that blame individuals or groups for disadvantaged circumstances beyond their control. In this vein, Research & Planning recognizes that poverty is not a result of motivation or lack thereof, but of structural inequities. When access and opportunity is not equal, when race, sex, family composition, or housing status make it two or three times more likely that one will experience poverty, it is the failure of systems and policies that are largely responsible for observed poverty outcomes, not the individual. The data provided in this report is intended to inform our community about local poverty issues in order to spark conversation on how best to serve all of Travis County’s residents.
To understand how to best serve all of Travis County’s residents, we explore poverty statistics in the hopes of being able to answer:
In addition to the above research questions we encourage users to consider the following questions:
Poverty is a consequence of structural and systemic inequities that has limited access to resources and opportunities that people need to meet basic needs and achieve their desired quality of life. This report relies on data from the U.S. Census Bureau which measures poverty by comparing an individual or household income level to a poverty threshold which is determined annually by the U.S. Census Bureau. For more information on various poverty measures, see the "About this Report" section. Residents that are considered to be living in poverty have incomes below 100% of the poverty threshold. Some sections of this report also include data on people living below 200% of the poverty threshold, which are indicators of economic hardship and more accurately captures the individuals and families that move in and out of poverty. Below is an example of household types and their respective poverty thresholds.
The causes and consequences of poverty are interconnected. The conditions that increase the risk of poverty can also be the result of being in poverty. For example, low educational attainment may increase the risk of poverty by limiting economic opportunity, but it may also be a consequence of poverty as it may limit access to higher education opportunities, or create the need to earn an immediate income because increasing one’s employment skills or education requires time and expenses. Poverty trends observed at the population level can be influenced by factors (such as resident movement and other population changes) that have little to do with efforts to mitigate poverty (i.e., when many affluent individuals move to a certain area, the poverty rate in that area may decline, but that decline does not mean individuals in poverty in that area are rising out of it). Though not an exhaustive list, the following are structural and systemic factors that can influence poverty and economic status at the individual level:
The following resources are useful for interpreting poverty data and provide additional insight on the causes and consequences of poverty:
The data in this report uses the 2020 5-year ACS estimates rather than 1-year estimates because they are more reliable and provide the largest sample size. The 2015 ACS 5-Year Estimates are used to explore trends over time. The main limitation with the 5-Year Estimates is timeliness whereas the 1-Year Estimates provide the most current data available and a more nuanced look at trends over time.
The indicators chosen for this report are based on several factors including community need, user feedback, data availability and reliability.
One in four (25%) Travis County residents are living below 200% of poverty and are experiencing economic hardship. Comparing the two time periods (table below) shows that poverty trends are improving as the rate of people living below 100% of the poverty threshold decreased by 5 percentage points, followed by those living between 100-199% (-3 percentage points) and those living between 200-299% (-2 percentage point). However, it should be cautioned that the 2016-2020 poverty numbers and rates possibly conceal how difficult 2020 was for many people, given that poverty rates had been improving prior to 2020 and the 2016-2020 data takes into account the full 5 year period.
Between 2016-2020, African American or Black residents as well as Hispanic residents of any race were overrepresented in the Travis County population experiencing poverty compared to their share of the total population. These two groups also experienced the highest rates of poverty, which is the number of people in the group who live in poverty divided by the total number of people in the group, compared to the total population, making these groups the most vulnerable to experiencing poverty. All racial/ethnic groups with the exception of the smallest populations saw a decrease in their poverty rate from 2011-2015; Hispanic residents had the largest rate percentage decrease over this time period, while Asian residents had the smallest decrease.
Children under 18 years old experience higher than average poverty rates with 32% of children living below 200% of the poverty threshold in 2016-2020. Though young adults 18-24 years old experienced the highest rates of poverty with 47% living under 200% of the poverty threshold, a deeper analysis of data from 2019 shows that most young adults (61%) living below 200% of poverty are enrolled in post- secondary school ( see Appendix B of the 2019 Poverty Brief ).
Between the two time periods shown in the table, both the rate and number of individuals living below 200% of the poverty threshold decreased for all age groups except those aged 65 and over. Though the rate for the older adult population living below 200% of poverty remained relatively stable at 21% and 22%, this group saw a 28% increase in the number of older adults experiencing economic hardship.
Married-couple families had the lowest rate of poverty among families with children at 5% in 2016- 2020. Though poverty rates for single-female householders with children has decreased between the two time periods by 10 percentage points, this group’s poverty rate at 30% is still well above the total rate for all families with children at 11%. The graph shows that all family types with children had a number decrease as well as a rate decrease. Overall, the poverty rate for families with children decreased by 6 percentage points between 2011-2015 and 2016-2020 from 17% to 11%.
Females in Travis County had a higher rate of poverty (12%) compared to males (10%) in 2016-2020 5-year estimates. Compared to 2011-2015 estimates, both females and males saw a decrease in the number and rate of individuals that experiences poverty, a percentage point decrease of 6% and 5%, respectively.
The rate of individuals in poverty that own their home (referred to as owners) declined from 4% in 2011-2015 to 3% in 2016-2020, a percentage point decrease of 1%. In the same time frame, the rate of renters in poverty declined from 24% in 2011-2015 to 16% in 2016-2020, a percentage point decrease of 8%. Additional data not displayed in this graph shows that of all households in poverty in 2016-2020, 71% were renters, while only 29% were owners.
Travis County, compared to the other counties within the region, had the second largest percentage point decline (-9%) in the rate of residents experiencing economic hardship and living below 200% of the poverty threshold behind Caldwell County (-11%).
This report includes a series of maps which explores geographic patterns of poverty and population change. Many of these maps look at change over time, using comparisons of 2011-2015 and 2016-2020 5-Year estimates from the American Community Survey (ACS). These maps use Zip Code Tabulation Areas (ZCTA) for the unit of geographic analysis. For more information about ZCTAs please see the "About this Report" section, and Appendix B: Data Tables by ZCTA . Viewing all of the maps as a collection will provide the fullest understanding of the population changes observed. The maps can be used to examine larger geographic patterns and changes, but they can also be used to drill down to specific ZCTAs of interest to see neighborhood level changes occurring.
The map below displays the percent of individuals under 200% of poverty by ZCTA. The slide bar in the center divides 2015 and 2020 maps. The purpose of this map is to highlight concentrations of poverty (under 200%) and the geographic changes in the rate of those under 200% of poverty between 2015 and 2020. Changes from one time period to the next do not necessarily mean statistically significant changes occurred. The next map will highlight significant changes. This map shows that large areas in the eastern portion of Travis County that had 50% or more of it's population (darkest blue) living below 200% of poverty in 2015 decreased in 2020 to just to 2 ZCTAS. 78712 is a highly dense University of Texas housing area. Even though the maps show decreasing poverty rates over time, large areas of the eastern side of Travis County continue to have 25-50% of the population living below 200% of poverty.
This report was researched and written by the staff at Travis County Health and Human Services, Research & Planning Division. Lead writers were Nathan Fernandes, Rochelle Olivares, and Octavio Ulloa, with support from Lawrence Lyman (Division Director), and Pilar Sanchez (County Executive for Travis County HHS).
For questions or for more information please contact the Research & Planning Division at HHS_R&P@traviscountytx.gov.
Research & Planning Division, “Travis County Poverty Brief using 2020 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates,” Travis County Health and Human Services, 2022.
The American Community Survey (ACS) is conducted continuously on a yearly basis, and includes questions about demographic, social, housing, and economic characteristics. ACS data sets are released as period estimates that represent the characteristics of the population and housing over a specific data collection period of 12 or 60 months. This differs from the decennial census, which is designed to measure characteristics during a narrow time period.
We use 2016-2020 ACS 5-Year Estimates (data collected over 60 months), rather than year estimates because they are more reliable and provide the largest sample size. The 5-Year data sets are also unique in that they include data for small levels of geography (e.g. Zip Code Tabulation Areas) which allows us to explore poverty at the sub-county level. The 2011-2015 ACS 5-Year Estimates are used to explore trends over time. The main limitation with the 5-Year Estimates is timeliness whereas the 1-Year Estimates provide the most current data available and a more nuanced look at trends over time.
Due to the differences stated above, poverty statistics from 5-Year Estimates and Year Estimates may differ. As a result, the poverty statistics in this report may vary from other Travis County HHS Research & Planning reports (such as the Travis County Snapshot) or other reports released by our partners in the community.
We tested all ACS estimates presented in this report at a 90% confidence level for reliability. This test involves calculating the coefficient of variation (CV). The CV uses the margin of error, which gives an idea of the variability of an estimate, to measure the reliability of the estimate. To help interpret the estimate’s reliability, we use the following tiered reliability standards which are based on the value of the CV:
Estimates with a CV of 15.5% or higher are noted with asterisks to signal to the reader that the data points fall into an unreliable tier. Our decision to publish estimates that are not reliable was driven by the need to:
Any comparisons explicitly highlighted in the narrative text have also been tested for statistical significance and can be assumed to be statistically significant unless stated otherwise. Some notable exceptions where statistical significance was not found or not possible to determine have been footnoted. Testing was not conducted on every possible permutation of comparisons between data presented here, so inferences about statistics and trends should be drawn with caution.
For more information and instruction on testing for reliability and statistical significance, as well as general guidance on how to use American Community Survey data, please see the Compass guides published by the U.S. Census Bureau: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/guidance.html .
Due to the differences stated above, poverty statistics from 5-Year Estimates and Year Estimates may differ. As a result, the poverty statistics in this report may vary from other Travis County HHS Research & Planning reports (such as the Travis County Snapshot) or other reports released by our partners in the community. The geographies used in this report are ZIP Code Tabulation Areas (ZCTAs). ZCTAs are different from the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) ZIP codes used for mail service. ZCTAs are approximate area representations of USPS five-digit ZIP Code service areas that the Census Bureau creates using whole blocks to present statistical data from censuses and surveys. The U.S. Census Bureau created the ZCTAs as a statistical geographic entity to overcome more frequent changes to ZIP code areas by the USPS . ZCTAs are relatively stable over time, whereas ZIP Code areas by the USPS change more frequently to support more efficient mail delivery. ZCTAs should not be used to identify the official USPS ZIP Code for mail delivery.
Limitations: There are limitations with using ZCTAs rather than census tracts, which are small, relatively permanent statistical subdivisions of a county that generally have a population between 1,200 and 8,000 people. One limitation includes losing the ability for readers to look at data within smaller, more specific geographic areas than ZCTAs, which are larger in size than census tracts. Other limitations include the fact that ZCTAs may cross County lines, whereas census tracts do not, and data by ZCTAs are only available with 5-Year Estimates, which are less timely than 1-Year Estimates.
Calculations: The rate for each ZCTA is calculated by dividing the number of people in the ZCTA who live below 200% of poverty by the total number of people in the ZCTA. Thus, the rate is the percentage of people living below 200% of Poverty for the respective ZCTA. In this report, rate and percent are used interchangeably.
Individuals for Whom Poverty Status is Determined: This includes all people except institutionalized people, people in military group quarters, people in college dormitories, people in unconventional living situations (and not in a shelter), and unrelated individuals of a household under 15 years of age (income questions are asked of people age 15 and older, so if someone under age 15 is not living with a family member, the Census Bureau does not know their income). Because people whose poverty status is undefined are excluded from Census Bureau poverty tabulations , the total population represented in poverty tables--the poverty universe--is slightly smaller than the overall population.
Income to Poverty Threshold: The ACS provides some data sets by the ratio of income to poverty threshold. The ratio of income to poverty is computed by dividing the total family income by the appropriate poverty threshold for that person’s family size and composition. For more information about how the U.S. Census Bureau measures poverty: https://www.census.gov/topics/income-poverty/poverty.html .
Estimates: Poverty estimates (numbers) provide an approximation of how many people in a given group are living in poverty. Estimates are statistically determined based on a sample and weighted to bring the characteristics of the sample more into agreement with the full population.
Rates: Poverty rates help us make comparisons between geographies and population groups and understand what groups may be disproportionately represented among the population living in poverty. American Community Survey data tables provide estimates for the number of individuals who are living in poverty, displayed according to various characteristics (i.e. age, family type, level of education) and geographies (i.e. cities, counties, block groups). The poverty rate for any given group is calculated by dividing the number of people in the group who live in poverty by the total number of people in the group for whom poverty is determined. For example, the poverty rate for children under 18 years is the number of children in households with incomes below the poverty threshold, divided by the total number of children for whom poverty is determined. Thus, the poverty rate is the percentage of people living in poverty. In this report, poverty rate and “percent in poverty” are used interchangeably.
The three scenarios below demonstrate why it is important to consider both numbers and rates when using poverty data to answer a question or make a decision.
Difference: The difference is calculated by subtracting the most recent estimate from the old estimate to show the difference between them.
Percentage Change: Percent change represents the relative change in size of a population between two time periods. The percent change is similar to the difference but used to describe that change as a percent of the old value.
Percent change is different than growth rate. Growth rate represents the average amount of change per year or per month across a time period. There are different formulas for calculating growth rates because there are varying assumptions you can apply to the data – like assuming the growth rate in the period was linear or exponential. We do not calculate growth rates in this report.
The Official Poverty Measure
The U.S. Census Bureau sets annual poverty thresholds which are used to make statistical determinations about poverty. A person/family is considered in poverty if the household’s annual pre-tax total income is below a certain threshold (three times the cost of a minimum food diet for the household size and type). The thresholds vary by age and number of adults and number of children under 18 in the family unit. There are no geographic variations for poverty thresholds. The Official Poverty Measure uses income to make inferences about the ability to acquire basic needs. It was established in the 1960’s in response to the “War on Poverty” , and based on a methodology for “counting the poor” developed by the Social Security Administration. It is especially useful for looking at trends overtime because it uses national income data which, for over 50 years now, has been regularly collected by the Census Bureau. However, there are also many limitations to using this measure for understanding how individuals meet basic needs including:
Despite these limitations, it is one of the most widely used and accessible poverty measures, and the measure used throughout this report.
The Supplemental Poverty Measure
The Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) was developed in 2011 by economists at the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics, in order to improve upon the limitations of the official poverty measure. Several ways in which the SPM addresses those limitations are outlined below. The Census Bureau reports data for both measures.
Above are only a few examples of how the SPM differs from the official measure. The Census Bureau provides a detailed comparison of the measures in an informative infographic: “How the U.S. Census Bureau Measures Poverty” . The chart below is an excerpt from the 2019 Supplemental Poverty Measure Report comparing the OPM and SPM national rates by age, sex, and race. Also included is a comparison of poverty thresholds using the different measures for the Austin-Round Rock Metropolitan Statistical Area . These figures may serve as a reminder to the reader of how the different factors used in the two measures can change how poverty is depicted.
The chart below compares the Austin-Round Rock MSA Official U.S. Poverty Measure (OPM) to the SPM.
Click on this text for a PDF of this table
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