Mapping Gentrification

The City of Gainesville has an Enterprise Zone, established in 1995. During my capstone project this semester, I investigated whether this is an effective tool for sustainable, equitable revitalization locally.

The Gainesville Enterprise Zone, shown above, was designated in 1995 under the state program as an area that was chronically blighted and in need of revitalization. My capstone research indicated that there are less statistically significant differences between Enterprise Zone and non-Enterprise Zone areas in 2010 as compared to 1990. I also found hotspots and cold spots, clusters of particularly high and low rates, of indicators including rent, poverty, median home value, and employment to shift over time.

Enterprise Zones, and other spatially based economic policies, have been criticized for potentially promoting gentrification. Gentrification and "studentification" are common topics here in Gainesville, and come up frequently in the news, as low income residents are displaced from their communities due to increasing prices. The Porters community, within the Enterprise Zone study area, was featured in a 2019  article about gentrification in the Gainesville Sun. 

The Urban Displacement Project defines gentrification as "a process of neighborhood change that includes economic change in a historically disinvested neighborhood — by means of real estate investment and new higher-income residents moving in - as well as demographic change - not only in terms of income level, but also in terms of changes in the education level or racial make-up of residents."

It can be challenging to quantify gentrification, but there are a variety of existing models developed by cities across the nation. Some focus on identifying where gentrification has occurred, while others serve as predictors for where it is likely to occur in the future. Different cities have considered unique factors and methodologies in trying to gain an overview of this complex topic.

This index, created in 2015, takes into account data from 2000, 2005, 2013, and 2014. The index aggregates six demographic indicators associated with gentrification:

• Percent change in the ratio of low/high IRS tax filings
• Percent change of residents 25 years or older with a bachelors degree or higher
• Percent change of white, non-hispanic residents
• Percent change in median gross rent
• Percent change in average household size

Atlanta created their map was by assigning a "gentrification vulnerability score" to each census tract. Each of the following attributes was given a score of 0 or 1, depending on whether they were below or above the city average:

• Percent non-white
• Percent renters
• Percent without a Bachelors degree
• Percent of households below 90% of HUD-adjusted median family income

The resulting scores were summed up, with a higher value denoting a higher degree of vulnerability to gentrification.

The Seattle Displacement Risk Index is an aggregate, taking into account the largest number of indicators, falling into categories of vulnerability, amenities, and development capacity. The indicators included are the following:

• Percent of population who are persons of color
• Percent of population who speak English less than "very well"
• Percentage of population 25 years or older without a Bachelor's degree
• Percentage of households that are renters
• Percentage of population with income below 80% of the area median income who are cost burdened (>30% of income toward housing)
• Percentage of population with income below 80% of the area median income who are cost burdened (>50% of income toward housing)
• Percentage of population with income below 200% of poverty level
• Number of bus stops within a 1/4 mile walk
• Walking distance to current or future light rail/street car stops
• Walking distance to supermarket, pharmacy, or restaurant
• Walking distance to school, library, park, or community center
• Below-median income areas adjacent to above median income areas
• Travel time to urban centers outside Seattle
• Parcels with residential use that were reported as "likely to redevelop" in a city model
• Ratio of rent to average Seattle rent (by square foot)

To create a simple potential index for gentrification in Gainesville at the census tract level, I combined methods from all three projects outlined above. I used countywide data from the 2007-2011 and 2015-2017 American Community Survey (ACS). To start with, I selected my indicators:

• Median household value
• Percent white
• Percent poverty
• Percent renters
• Percent who speak English "not well" or "not at all"
• Percent over 25 years of age with a Bachelors degree or higher

I calculated percentage rates of change between the two surveys for all indicators. Next, I created raster outputs for each indicator and reclassified the rates of change with a value from 1-5, 5 being the highest likelihood of gentrification. I aggregated all six raster layers, and again reclassified into 5 categories (ranging from very low to very high risk). Finally, I clipped the data to the city limits, and symbolized them on the map below:

For reference, I added the Enterprise Zone boundary on top of the index layer. The large student population in Gainesville may skew demographic and economic data, especially in areas near the University of Florida campus.

Gentrification is a complex issue that takes into account social, cultural, historic, and economic factors - and there is no standard method for mapping it. However, this map may serve as a rough idea of how the sociocultural landscape in Gainesville shifted between the two ACS survey years examined.

[Digital image]. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://sweetwaterinn.com/blog/gainesville-fl-downtown/

City of Atlanta. Neighborhood Nexus: Gentrification Vulnerability Tool. Derived from American Community Survey (ACS), 2006-2010 and 2011-2015 (5-year averages). HUD's Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS), 2006-2010 and 2009-2013 (5-year averages). Atlanta, GA.

City of Los Angeles Open Data. Los Angeles Index of Neighborhood Change - 2016. Derived from Decennial Census, 2000 and American Community Survey (5-Year Estimate, 2009-2013; 2010; 2014). Los Angeles, CA.

GeoPlan Center. Florida Census Block Groups – 2019. Derived from 2010 US Census data with selected fields from 2015-2017 American Community Survey Data. Gainesville, FL: University of Florida Geoplan Center

GeoPlan Center. Florida Census Block Groups – 2011. Derived from 2010 US Census data with selected fields from 2007-2011 American Community Survey Data. Gainesville, FL: University of Florida Geoplan Center

Seattle (Wash.)., Department of Planning and Development. (2016). Seattle 2035 ; comprehensive plan: Managing growth to become an equitable city, 2015-2035. Seattle, WA: Dept. of Planning and Development.

Urban Displacement Project. (n.d.). Retrieved April 11, 2021, from https://www.urbandisplacement.org/