Russian Paramilitary Activity in Africa
The number of violent events involving Wagner Group exploded in 2021 and reached unprecedented heights in 2023.
The number of violent events involving Wagner Group exploded in 2021 and reached unprecedented heights in 2023.
In the short span of three years, nine successful coups d’état have occurred in a region of Africa increasingly called the coup belt, which spans from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea.
A region that encompasses much of West Africa, the Sahel, and part of Central Africa, is now ruled by individuals or juntas that seized power by force.
First, there was Mali in August 2020.
Michele Cattani / Agence France-Presse
Chad in April 2021.
Tele Tchad / Associated Press
Mali again in May 2021.
John Wessels / Agence France-Presse
Guinea in September 2021.
John Wessels / Agence France-Presse
Sudan in October 2021.
Ashraf Shazly / Agence France-Presse
Burkina Faso in January 2022.
Stringer / Anadolu Agency
Burkina Faso again in Sep 2023.
Agence France-Presse
Niger in July 2023. Where the Presidential Guard surrounded the presidential palace, detained the democratically-elected president, violently dispersed demonstrators, and announced on television “we have decided to intervene and seize our responsibilities." Tchiani
Mahamadou Hamidou / Reuters
And then Gabon in August 2023.
Gabon 24, via Agence France-Presse
There are some notable similarities between these seven countries: disaffected militaries, delayed states of development, and all are former French colonies.
In addition to coups, there several countries experiencing intense internal armed conflicts, or protracted armed confrontations between the state and armed groups.
A thread that runs through several of these countries (coup & internal armed conflict) is the recorded presence of Russian paramilitary forces.
At the helm of Russian paramilitary operations on the continent is an organization popularly known as Wagner Group (Chastnaya Voennaya Kompaniya Vagner).
While the private military company officially does not exist, the name refers to an obscure yet coherent network of contract mercenaries, enterprises, and private military forces that are “believed to enjoy the implicit but unrecognized support of the Russian state.” FP
The purpose of this unique dataset is to provide the most comprehensive structured event data available on Russian paramilitary activity on the African continent from 2018 to 2023.
The number of violent events involving Russian paramilitary forces in Africa exploded in 2021 and reached new heights in 2023.
Daily events and monthly moving average
But there were two countries in which Russian paramilitary forces were principally active:
Mali
with 561 violent events
and Central Africa Republic
with 586 violent events
Now let's take a look at just one event from each of these countries.
We'll start in the Central African Republic's prefecture of Haute-Kotto.
And the village of Yangoudroundja (Samba-Boungou, Bria).
On 9 February 2022, Wagner militants opened fire on the village's residents and set fire to two hundred houses. Around 60 residents were killed. Corbeau News Centrafrique
Now let's go to Mali.
To the Mopti region.
And the village of Moura.
On 27 March 2022, Malian and Wagner forces carried out a helicopter borne assault on the village. In the initial assault, 8 JNIM militants, 1 Malian soldier, and 1 Wagner soldier were killed.
Over the next five days Malian and Wagner forces killed as many as 500 people (no more than 100 of whom were militants). UN Report
Malian forces (FAMa) also burned as many as 200 JNIM motorcycles.
The number of violent events involving Russian paramilitary forces in Africa in the past five years have increased at an extreme rate.
The vast majority of these incidents were categorized as violence against civilians, followed by battles.
ACLED event data was the principal source used for this dataset, consisting of over 98% of all reported data. UCDP data was used as a complimentary source to ensure the dataset was as comprehensive and holistic as possible.
Explore the map on your own.