Philippines - A Country that's Prone to Climate Change

The Philippines is considered a tropical country because it’s near the equator and it experiences wet and dry seasons only, unlike the other countries having 4 seasons due to its location. In other words, the location of a certain country could really affect the kind of season they will experience. The Philippines has five types of climates, including the tropical rainforest, tropical monsoon, tropical savanna, humid subtropical and oceanic (both are in higher-altitude areas) characterized by relatively high temperature, oppressive humidity and plenty of rainfall. There are two seasons in the country, the wet season and the dry season, based upon the amount of rainfall. This is also dependent on the location in the country, as some areas experience rain all throughout the year. Based on the temperature, the warmest months of the year are from March to October, and the coolest months are from November to February as the winter monsoon brings cooler air. The country's average temperature can range from 25°C to 32°C with humidity around 77%, and the mean annual rainfall of the Philippines varies from 965 to 4,064 millimeters annually.

The latitude of the Philippines (11.112666°N, 122.509476°E) is primarily responsible for the country’s climate because this location is near the equator and between the Hadley cells. The Philippines is intersected by the equator, so they experience much warmer temperatures year-round than the rest of the world despite the shared elevations. This is due to the equator's near-constant exposure to sunlight all year long. The ITCZ (Intertropical convergence zone) also plays a huge role in affecting the climates of the Philippines. The Philippines only have two seasons, which are the dry and wet seasons due to the movement of the ITCZ. The ITCZ shifts north and south seasonally with the sun, it moves north in the Northern Hemisphere summer and south in the Northern Hemisphere winter. Therefore, the ITCZ is responsible for the wet and dry seasons in the tropics. The north easterly trade winds coming down from China impact the climate of the Philippines because the trade winds are also what makes the Philippines have a tropical climate, and they are dominant throughout the year. The trade winds of two hemispheres collide which causes erratic weather patterns with stagnant calms. Furthermore, the warm ocean currents surrounding the Philippines, such as in the Philippine Sea, are also stabilizing the temperatures and contributing to a more humid and hot climate, as it transports warm water and precipitation from the equator toward the poles and cold water from the poles back to the tropics.

The Philippines’ main sources of water are rivers, lakes, river basins, and groundwater reservoirs. The longest and largest river in the Philippines is the Cagayan River, which discharges approximately 53,943 million cubic meters of water annually. Its groundwater reserves are 47,895 million cubic meters replenished by rainfall and seepage from rivers and lakes. The four major groundwater reservoirs are in Cagayan, Central Luzon, Agusan, and Cotabato. There are 438 major dams and 423 smaller dams. Dams and reservoirs are mainly used for water storage, water supply, irrigation, regulation of flood, and hydropower.

Over the past decades, typhoons in the Philippines are becoming more intense due to climate change. Typhoons are found to be occurring when a weather wave that is rough enough with the help of the rotation of earth starts to rotate. This phenomenon is known as Coriolis Effect. The pressure system will be generated very effectively and will be increased when the wave spins into a complete circle. The strong super typhoons are a big threat towards the citizens in the Philippines, as they are living in high risk areas due to it.

The Philippines has suffered from an inexhaustible number of deadly typhoons, this is due to its position near the equator, as well as how the country is in a weather pathway known as the “Typhoon Belt''. The Philippines, at most, extend less than 30°N of the equator, so parts of the island are surrounded by oceans that in the summertime can have temperatures exceeding 80°F. Since typhoons depend on a heat engine process that requires warm water, these oceans provide the fuel necessary for typhoon development. It also doesn’t help the fact that the Western Pacific Ocean region is located to the east of the Philippines, the trade winds travel from east to west due to the Coriolis force and atmospheric currents. Therefore, it has plenty of time and area to gather water evaporation on its way to the country. In particular, the islands of Luzon and the Visayas are vulnerable to typhoons because of the combination of warm water, location compared to changes in the monsoon season (which leads to low pressure systems being common there), and due to Coriolis forces being strong enough to “spin up” storms.

The graph shows how the level of PDI (Power Dissipation Index) for the tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic increase higher as the sea surface temperature starts to rise from 1949 to 2014.

A warming planet is already stoking the intensity of tropical cyclones in the northwest Pacific and their ferocity will continue to increase even with moderate climate change over this century. A study covering 850 typhoons in the region found the intensity of the damaging storms has increased by about 10 percent since the 1970s. Using 20 models and a mid-range projection of carbon dioxide emissions, the researchers found the peak intensity of storms such as super Typhoon Haiyan, which tore through the Philippines in November 2013, will become even stronger and more common. One of the most certain consequences of climate change is that the stronger typhoons carry more moisture, track differently, move faster and will be aggravated by sea level rise. Furthermore, such storms will be 14 percent more stronger by 2100. The emerging consensus from climate model studies is that there will be fewer, but more intense tropical cyclones in a warmer world.

The Philippines are one of the world’s most typhoon impacted places. There is strong scientific consensus that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are causing climate change and how it’s contributing to stronger typhoons due to higher sea surface temperatures and higher subsurface sea temperatures, which remove the natural buffer on typhoon strength occasioned when cold water up wells from below the ocean’s surface. These stronger typhoons carry more moisture, track differently, move faster and will be aggravated by sea level rise, this is one of the most certain consequences of climate change.

Seasonal droughts in the Philippines are becoming more frequent, severe, and are lasting longer due to climate change. A drought is a natural hazard that occurs when an area receives abnormally low rainfall, leading to a shortage of water and decreased soil moisture. This hazard has extreme effects on the agricultural, fisheries, and forestry sectors, which are the Philippines’ largest source of employment based on industry.

The Philippines is so vulnerable to droughts due to its location near the ITCZ. The movement of the ITCZ affects the dry and wet seasons in the tropical climate regions, it is also the reason why the tropics are particularly vulnerable to droughts. As the ITCZ moves north and over the Philippines, it carries the mT winds over the land, this will bring wet weather, and therefore, the wet seasons occur. As the ITCZ moves south, the Philippines will be experiencing hot and dry weather, under the influence of the cT winds. Thus, providing the perfect conditions for droughts to occur. Furthermore, the ITCZ itself has become narrower in response to global warming, which has a great impact on the weather in the Philippines by causing longer hot and dry seasons, ultimately leading to more long-lasting droughts. The Philippines is also vulnerable to droughts because the country is located in the west of the Pacific Ocean, and the climate cycle El Niño with a global impact on weather patterns occurs in the Pacific Ocean. The strong likelihood of reduced rainfall during an El Niño event increases the risk of droughts in the Philippines.

Climate change increases the odds of worsening drought in many parts of the United States and the world in the decades ahead. Regions such as the Southwest of the U.S. is at particular risk.

The researchers found that droughts increased between 1900 and 1949, lessened between 1950 and 1975, and have been accelerating since. Each of these periods seems to correspond with human activities. According to a new study, human activity has probably had an impact on the world's risk of drought since the start of the 20th century, which also predicts that droughts related to climate change will get much worse. The drying trend at the start of the 20th century seems to be related to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. The period when droughts were fewer coincides with the increased production of aerosols, and earlier studies have found that aerosols can affect rainfall and change cloud cover. At the global scale, scientists are confident that relatively wet places, such as the tropics, and higher latitudes will get wetter, while relatively dry places in the subtropics (where most of the world’s deserts are located) will become drier.

The increased amount of greenhouse gas emissions released into the atmosphere from human activity over the past decades has led to climate change, as well as global warming which are distributing the weather patterns, thus, seasonal changes. The rising temperatures in the Philippines increase evaporation, more moisture evaporates from land, lakes, rivers, and other bodies of water, leading to less precipitation in the area (shorter rainy season). Warmer temperatures also increase evaporation in plant soils, which affects plant life and can reduce rainfall even more. Thus all of these factors combined can cause more frequent and severe droughts. In addition, global warming is also expected to increase the frequency of El Niño weather events in the Pacific Ocean, resulting in more long lasting droughts occurring in the Philippines.

The effects of typhoons on citizens in the Philippines are countless, especially considering the fact that the Philippines is a relatively poor country. Thus, it makes them more vulnerable to typhoons, especially at how the intensity is increasing due to climate change. The most recent typhoon the Philippines experienced is called the Typhoon Goni. Typhoon Goni was the strongest typhoon of 2020 that barrelled through the south of the Philippines' main island of Luzon. Over 390,000 people had fled to safer ground, including more than 345,000 to evacuation centers, raising concerns about compliance with coronavirus related health protocols. Typhoon Goni is one of the strongest storms to hit the Philippines since 2013's Haiyan, which killed more than 6,300 people.

Economic losses due to typhoons in the Philippines have been increasing during the past decades. This is mostly linked to increasing development and investment in the areas that’s most prone to typhoons. The direct losses include the costs of repair, replacement or maintenance of properties and assets affected by the typhoons. All the other costs include the loss of agricultural productivity, effects on water quality and reduced real estate values. The Typhoon Goni resulted in more than 300 houses being buried under volcanic rocks and mud flows from Mayon Volcano. Storm surges also hit some coastal towns, rivers were overflowed and dikes were destroyed. The cost of rebuilding in the swathe of the Philippines devastated by Typhoon Haiyan could reach $5.8 billion USD.

42 percent of the Philippines is currently experiencing drought or dry spells brought on by the El Niño effect. The worst affected areas in the Philippines are Mindanao and the Visayas regions. According to UNOCHA, around 181,687 farmers were impacted due to 224,834 hectares of agricultural land being significantly affected since January 2016. An estimated CHF 81 million (approximately 9.21 billion USD) in agricultural production has been lost. Droughts not only exacerbate poverty, inequality, and food insecurity, it also heightens the risk of conflict. As droughts degrade the natural environment, people find themselves competing for increasingly scarce land and water resources. Other potential impacts include human health problems due to limited and poor water quality and public safety threat by increasing forest and range fires.

The Philippines’ agricultural sector made up approximately 12 percent of the country’s GDP in 2018 (however, it has been higher in the past) and they are also one of the major exporters of coconut oil and other coconut products in the world. Droughts can significantly impact the economy of the Philippines because the lack of rainfall can cause entire crops to fail or result in a very small crop, even for farmers who irrigate their fields. In turn, low crop production leads to losses in other industries that rely on agricultural products in order to stay in business. And unfortunately, the agricultural sector is one of the largest sources of employment based on the industry in the Philippines. Furthermore, crop failures will inevitably lead to the loss of the demand-supply balance and the price of agricultural products and other related products will soar high. Everything in the markets will sell at higher prices, only those affluent enough will be able to sustain such stressful periods. The poor will suffer the most as they will be unable to buy the basic necessities of life due to the high prices of the products.

The Philippine archipelago comprises more than 7,000 islands. In the 1920s, 60 percent of the land was covered in tropical rainforest, but today, it is less than 18 percent. The rainforest had to give way to housing, plantations, and fields. The process of deforestation in order to implement urbanization has greatly impacted the two natural disasters, typhoons and droughts to be worse in the Philippines. Deforestation can result in a more devastating typhoon because in fact, trees in large numbers can directly mitigate the disastrous effects of typhoons, mangroves planted (or actually replanted) along coasts can absorb the energy of storm surges. Deforestation can also result in a more intense drought because trees hold moisture into the soil, fewer trees mean less moisture, which can lead to a more severe and long lasting drought.

According to the carbon map, the total CO2 from fossil fuels burned is 93.3 million tonnes in 2013 for the Philippines, which is considered a high ranking as the country is ranked 40/213. The Philippines is also ranked high for consumption (37/213), consuming a total of 112.5 million tonnes in 2012, and they ranked medium for historical CO2 emissions (53/185), which means they release more CO2 emissions now than before. However I think while the Philippines are vulnerable to typhoons augmented by climate change, the Filipino people bear a disproportionately low responsibility for causing climate change.

The Philippines is very vulnerable to climate change due to numerous factors, such as their location, high population density and poverty. Many people living in the Philippines are at very high risk because climate change is increasing the intensity of many natural hazards occurring there, such as typhoons, floods, droughts, wildfires etc. The Philippines ranking for vulnerability towards climate change shown in the carbon map is also considered ‘high’, they are always in the top 20 for all the three categories in vulnerability. 10,362,742 people are living less than 5 meter above sea level, and 793,430 people are already suffering from droughts, floods and extreme temps. Additionally, the Philippines, with its large and rapidly growing population, are vulnerable to stronger typhoons and this vulnerability is also exacerbated by localized environmental degradation.

The map divides the country's offshore areas into 11 zones and identifies specific risks for each of them from the effects of climate change. The map identifies five different risk factors, including a rise in sea levels, extreme rainfall events, extreme heating events, increased ocean temperatures and a disturbed water budget. Given the Philippines' vast shorelines and built-in geographic susceptibility, any one of these could be disastrous.

According to the climate action tracker website, the Philippines is currently in the “2°C compatible” category, this rating indicates that the Philippine’s climate commitment in 2030 is within the range of what is considered to be a fair share of global effort but is not consistent with the Paris Agreement.

The Philippines’ Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) is a 70% reduction in GHG emissions below business-as-usual (BAU) projections by 2030, condition on financial, technological and capacity building support. However, the Philippines doesn’t seem to have any implemented nor planned policies that are sufficient to achieve its NDC target. Emissions growth will be predominantly driven by increased energy consumption from transport and buildings. Current policy projections indicate a rapid and ongoing increase in greenhouse gas emissions which is inconsistent with meeting their NDC and the goals of the Paris Agreement. However, the combination of COVID-19’s impact and the coal moratorium would curb the Philippines’ emissions and bring the country much closer to its NDC target.