Electric Evolution
New York's Electricity System, Prices, and Climate Plans
Electricity and People
New York's wholesale electricity market is operated by the non-profit New York Independent System Operator (NYISO). For each auction time block, electricity generators bid generation units (kilowatt-hours) at various prices. NYISO stacks up bids from low to high. The lowest bid that meets aggregate demand sets the wholesale price for each region.
ISO/RTO map. Courtesy: Hitachi Energy
There are 11 NYISO zones across New York State.
New York City (Zone J) and Long Island (Zone K) account for 6 out of 10 New Yorkers
Nearly 2/3 of electricity demand is "Downstate" (Zones F-K)
"Upstate" (Zones A-E) accounts for 7 out of 10 New York's landmass.
The population density of NYC (29,221 per sq-mi) is 65-times the rest of Downstate (450 per sq-mi). Downstate population density (1,032 per sq-mi) is over 7-times the Upstate average (145 per sq-mi).
The Tale of Two Grids
New York has a world-leading clean Upstate (Zones A-E) electric system (powered largely by nuclear and hydro), and a near-complete fossil-powered Downstate (Zones F-K) electric system.
Transmission bottlenecks impede the flow of cheaper, low-emission electricity from Upstate to Downstate.
New York is investing in two major high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission lines to help ease the congestion.
Champlain Hudson Power Express (CHPE) is a $6 billion dollar 1,250 MW project to bring hydro-power from Quebec to New York City. Construction of the 330-mile project (blue dash line) started in December 2022 with completion expected by 2025.
Clean Path New York (CPNY) is a $11 billion dollar 1,300 MW project that promises to deliver solar and wind from Upstate to Downstate. The 178-mile project (green dash line) is to turn on by 2027.
These are the largest electric infrastructure builds in over 50 years. They also face fierce opposition from various parties. The permitting and building of transmission lines has become a critical impediment for climate plans that require a large number of low-density energy sources like solar and wind.
Wholesale Prices
01 / 06
New York wholesale electricity prices 2017-2022 has three distinct phases: shale-induced slumber (2017-2019) | pandemic blues (2020-2021) | war-induced rude awakening (2021-2022). Use the slider in the middle to explore the two charts.
Climate Plans and Conservation
Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act
In 2019, New York passed the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, which calls for a 100% emissions-free electric sector by 2040.
The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) provided decarbonization scenarios for the state's Draft Scoping Plan (January 2022). These prescribed a massive expansion of solar and wind in New York, while ignoring more land-sparing options: proven nuclear and prospective geothermal. Industrial energy facilities' land footprint is proportional to habitat destruction and biodiversity loss.
Rooftop solar has minimal incremental land footprint at the point of installation. While Onshore Wind's direct impact (turbine base) is minimal, usability and ecosystem impairments extend to the space between turbines as well.
We will explore the land-intensive industrial solar and wind deployments across New York -- both actual and proposed.
Nuclear and wind have extremely low life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions, at the plant boundary. However, intermittent generators require backup, typically fossil.
In 2020, only NYISO Zones A-E had any meaningful amount of solar and wind deployed. The map to the right displays the solar plus wind capacity per capita.
The area of each circle correspond to solar and total capacity for each region on a per-capita basis
All NYSERDA's scenarios entail a massive sprawl of energy infrastructure in Upstate New York (Zones A-E) and the Capital Region (Zone F). Use the controller to swipe between 2020 and 2040 maps to explore changes in total solar and wind density.
New York's Protected Areas limit the deployment of industrial energy infrastructure. Map from New York Protected Areas Database .
Much of northeastern New York hosts the Adirondack Park, one of the first places to receive "Forever Wild" status. Under the highest available protection for land in New York, much of this land is legally and permanently conserved.
The Adirondack Park alone covers about 5,000 square miles, or 15% of the Upstate region (Zones A-E).
Furthermore, a growing number of citizens in the areas with industrial solar and wind proposals are opposing the loss of agricultural, forest, and scenic lands among other concerns. Communities are increasingly banning or rejecting large-scale solar and wind developments.
Click map to explore specific details.
A Brighter Future
The climate act CLCPA requires the state to invest or direct resources to ensure that "disadvantaged communities" receive at least 35% of overall benefits. These investments could include workforce development, pollution reduction, low-income energy assistance, energy, transportation, and economic development.
The map to the right shows the median household income by census tract across the state, along with high voltage transmission lines (existing and proposed). The map also shows the 20 largest electricity generators of 2021.
This bar chart compares output of the 20 largest electricity generators with statewide solar and wind generation. The chart accounts for 70% of 2021 generation.
The electric system remains highly concentrated, with Downstate New York severely transmission-constrained and fossil-powered.
In order to decarbonize rapidly with minimal ecosystem damages, New York could build community-enriching nuclear plants in economically disadvantaged areas near expandable transmission lines. Alternately, New York could build nuclear plants near high population density areas to serve their energy needs, thereby lowering statewide energy sprawl.
The three Upstate nuclear power plants produce 22% of New York electricity (42% of carbon-free electricity) using only 2,050 acres of land. Former or existing large generator sites would be ideal for advanced nuclear deployment. Switching from fossil combustion to nuclear would retain well-paying energy jobs while improving worker health.
This strategy would facilitate a level of solar and wind build-out that is realistic, both ecologically and politically responsible, and welcomed by local residents.
In November 2022, NYSERDA presented the value of advanced nuclear to the Climate Action Council. Climate plans need to incorporate evidence-based insights and align with strong energy and industrial policies. One attempt at crafting a more reliable and responsible climate plan can be found in Bright Future New York.
Isuru Seneviratne
Isuru is an energy investor and sustainability analyst with 2 decades’ experience in holistic investment diligence, climate policy advocacy, and business development. He catalyzes impact based on evidence-based insights through Radiant Value Management, which he founded in 2015. With Electric Evolution, Isuru continues to contribute to New York's climate and energy policy making. The project uses Esri's spatial analysis and visualization tools.
Fundamentals of Sustainability Accounting (FSA) accredited by the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (IFRS Foundation), Isuru is pursuing a Masters in Sustainability at Harvard University Extension School. Isuru graduated from Amherst College with a Computer Science BA, cum laude.
