LONDON TO SCOTLAND WEST (SOUTH)

The London to Scotland West (South) route is made up of approximately 185 miles of motorway providing part of a north-south strategic link between London and Scotland. The route consists of the M40 from London through Oxfordshire to the Midlands, includes the sections of M42, M5, and M6 around Birmingham, commonly called the Birmingham Box, and continues north up the M6 to Junction 16, near Stoke-on-Trent in Staffordshire. (The rest of the M6 north of Junction 16 is covered by the  London to Scotland West (North) route strategy ). The route also includes short sections of the A45, A452, and A446 trunk roads, providing an alternative for drivers travelling from M42 Junction 6 to M6 Junction 4. These roads will provide access to the new High Speed 2 (HS2) station at Solihull.

The route serves a mix of long-distance car, heavy goods vehicles, and coach traffic to strategic destinations outside of the route corridor. These include links to Shropshire, Mid and North Wales via the M54, the South-West via the M5, and the East Midlands and North-East via the M42, A42, and M1. The M40 also fulfils a key strategic function from Southampton Port and Solent Freeport to the Midlands via the  Solent to Midlands route strategy . However, local traffic is more common on the sections of the M42, M5, and M6 which make up the ‘Birmingham Box’.

The route is predominantly 3- and 4-lane motorway, with short sections of 2-lane motorway on the M40 and dual carriageway on the A45, A452, and A446. There are junctions integrating with the major and local road networks as well as with other parts of the strategic road network (SRN) including the A500, M54, A5, A38, A46, A404, A43, and A34. The A404 and A34 connect to the M4, providing access to Reading, Swindon, Bath, Bristol, and South Wales.

South of the West Midlands, the M40 connects commercial and other traffic to Heathrow Airport (via the M25) and key economic centres in Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire, and Warwickshire, including High Wycombe, Oxford, Bicester, Stratford-upon-Avon, and Warwick.

In the Midlands, the route connects to Birmingham Airport and will provide access to the new HS2 stations at Solihull and Crewe. The HS2 Interchange station at Solihull will have a direct access from the A452, and HS2 Ltd will be continuing to make alterations to the A45, A452 and A446 during the third road period (2025-2030) to support this. The M42 Junction 6 will also be important for traffic travelling to HS2 Interchange station, whilst M6 Junction 16 will be used for traffic travelling to the Phase 2a station at Crewe. The M5 and M6 are also major access routes to and from the key manufacturing and industrial centres of Birmingham, the Black Country, and Staffordshire.

This route strategy is based on the road network as of the start of second road period (2020-2025). We recognise that some of the journeys on this route are part of longer trips and therefore need to be considered in conjunction with strategies on other routes.

Improving safety and minimising collision rates is a key consideration for all our routes.

The International Road Assessment Programme (iRAP) Star Ratings are based on road inspection data and provide a simple and objective measure of the level of safety which is ‘built-in’ to the road. The higher the star rating, the safer the road. iRAP Star Ratings are produced for each 100-metre section of road, based on detailed inspections of roadside features as well as traffic flow, speed, pedestrian and cyclist use, and crash data.

Using the latest available iRAP data, the motorway sections of the London to Scotland West (South) route are classified as 3- and 4-star. (No data was available for M6 Junctions 13 to 15, as roadworks meant that it was not operating under normal conditions).

The exceptions to this are the A452 and A446, which are classified as 1-star and 2-star respectively. These roads will be under the control of HS2 Ltd during the third road period (2025-2030), as per the terms of the High Speed Rail (London to West Midlands) Act 2017. HS2 Ltd will continue to make alterations to the A45, A452, and A446, to support access to the new station, during this period.

STATS19 data are the statistical data published by the Office for National Statistics about personal-injury road traffic collisions reported to the police. STATS19 remains the most detailed, complete, and reliable single source of information on road casualties covering the whole of Great Britain, in particular for monitoring trends over time.

STATS19 data show that there are concentrations of collisions and sections of the route where people were killed or seriously injured:

• M40 Junctions 2 to 5
• M40 Junctions 6 to 13
• M40 Junction 15 to the M40/M42 Interchange (M42 Junction 3A)
• M5 Junctions 2 to 1
• M6 Junctions 5 to 7
• M6 Junctions 12 to 13
• M6 Junctions 14 to 15

It should be noted that this data predates the completion of the M6 Junction 13 to 15 scheme, which opened in 2022.

Using the latest available data, the route is classified as low risk by the Road Safety Foundation Crash Risk Mapping, with the exception of the M42/M6 Interchange, which is classified as medium risk.

• Junctions and route sections on the M40, M42, M5, and M6 at sites where people have been killed or seriously injured in collisions
• The M42/M6 Interchange is classified as medium risk by the Road Safety Foundation

We want to improve journey times on route sections which currently experience high levels of delay and are expected to worsen in the future

Delays on the London to Scotland West (South) route are a particular issue for freight and commuter traffic using the route. Sections of the route which experience the greatest delay are:

• M42 between Junctions 4 and 6
• M5 between Junction 3 and the M5/M6 interchange
• A446 approaching M6 Junction 4
• M6 between Junctions 6 and 8
• M6 between Junctions 7 and 10

National Highways has a suite of five regional traffic models (RTMs) covering England’s strategic road network. The models allow us to identify future performance and delay on the network, assisting with the development of the route strategies. The RTM models use projected growth, expected trends and changes to the network (including National Highway’s RIS2 schemes) to forecast the performance of the network in 2031.

Based on future forecasts, the following parts of the route are also expected to experience delay by 2031:

• M40 north of the M25
• M42 east of Junction 2 and between Junctions 3 and 3A
• M5 between Junction 3 and the M5/M6 Interchange
• M6 between Junctions 4 and 6
• M6 northbound between Junctions 8 and 10A
• M6 southbound between Junctions 10A and 7

The route serves a number of tourist centres or attractions, as well as two major airports. Traffic travelling to these destinations is particularly affected by seasonal delay, especially traffic travelling to airports, where arriving on time is important.

Parts of the route that experience the worst seasonal delays are:

• M40 between Junctions 7 and 9
• M40 at Junction 9
• M42 Junctions 4 to 5
• A446 approaching M6 Junction 4
• M5 Junctions 1 to 3
• M5 and M6 at the M5/M6 interchange
• M6 at Stafford, Junctions 13 to 14

Parts of the London to Scotland West (South) route which have unreliable journey times and where drivers cannot be confident of how long their journeys will take include:

• M40 Junction 4 at Handy Cross
• M42 between Junctions 3a and 7a
• M5 around the Birmingham Box
• M5 on the approach to the M5/M6 interchange
• M6 between Junctions 4a and 10
• M6 at Stafford, Junctions 13 to 14

Interested parties told us that traffic diverting off the M40 and M6 to avoid seasonal delay on the strategic road network also causes network performance issues on local roads such as the A40 in High Wycombe and the A454, A4148, and A34 in the Walsall area.

• Seasonal delays on the M40
• Delays on the M42, M5, and M6 around the Birmingham Box
• Reliability at M40 Junction 4
• Reliability on the M42 and M5
• Reliability on the M6 around the Birmingham Box and near Stafford
• The impact of future development and traffic growth on delay and reliability along the route

Where possible we will seek to protect environmentally important locations and reduce air quality and noise impacts on communities served by the route.

The M40 is in a deep chalk cutting within the Aston Rowant Cutting Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI). This is on the north-western scarp of the Chiltern Hills and is located within the Chilterns Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty, making it one of the most environmentally sensitive locations on the route. The road is also near to the Blenheim Palace UNESCO World Heritage Site and adjacent to the Cotswolds National Landscape.

In the West Midlands, the A45 crosses the River Blythe SSSI, while the A452, A446, and M6 Junction 4 are close to the Coleshill and Bannerly Pool SSSI.

In terms of air quality, there are receptors within 100 metres of the strategic road network which may be more likely to experience adverse air quality impacts:

• M40 between Junctions 4 and 5
• M40 northbound between Junctions 11 and 12
• M5 between Junctions 3 and 2
• M6 between Junctions 6 and 7
• M6 between Junctions 10 and 10A
• M6 southbound between Junctions 13 and 14

A 60 miles per hour speed limit is in place for air quality on the M6 between Junctions 6 and 7, and on the M5 between Junctions 1 and 2.

There are receptors within 300 meres of the strategic road network which may be more sensitive to high noise levels:

• M40 Junctions 2 to 5
• M5 southbound Junction 4A to Junction 4 M5 Junctions 3 to 1
• M5 northbound at the M5/M6 interchange
• M42 northbound from Junction 7A to M6 Junction 5
• M6 southbound from Junction 5 to 6
• M6 Junction 6 to Junction 10
• M6 southbound between Junction 10 and Junction 10A
• M6 southbound Junctions 13 to 14
• M6 southbound from Junction 15 to the motorway service area at Keele.

Through engagement with interested parties, it has been stated that severance (separation of people from facilities and services they use within their community) issues exist for pedestrians and cyclists, especially when attempting to cross at or near motorway junctions. Interested parties have also raised concerns that the M6, which forms the northern edge of the Birmingham Box, is used for a significant number of local trips. These trips could be made more sustainable by using alternative modes of transport such as public transport, walking and cycling.

• Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty with environmental designations and cultural heritage
• A desire to minimise greenhouse gas emissions
• Resilience to future climate change
• Presence of SSSIs along the M40 and A45
• Presence of SSSIs close to the A452, A446, and M6 Junction 4
• Receptors within 100 metres of the M40, M5, and M6 which may be more likely to experience adverse air quality impacts
• Receptors within 300 metres of the M40, M5, and M6 which may be more sensitive to high noise levels
• Air quality impacts on M5 Junctions 2 to 1 and M6 Junctions 6 to 7

The strategic road network has a critical economic function in supporting national and cross border connectivity and areas with high levels of deprivation.

In order to understand the economic and housing growth aspirations of the area along the route we have considered key growth locations, such as those held in local plans and Freeports.

The London to Scotland West (South) route provides vital connections between key Economic Opportunity Areas including:

• Urban centres such as London, Oxford, Birmingham, Stafford, and Stoke-on-Trent
• Aylesbury Vale and Black Country Enterprise Zones
• Housing (at M40 Junction 10 and between M6 Junctions 15-16)
• Industrial clusters (M6 north of Junction 9)
• Birmingham Airport
• The Potteries urban centres and Ceramics Enterprise Zone

Locations along the route identified for future development in Local Authority Local Plans include:

• 10,000 homes near Bicester
• Arden Cross, a mixed-use development across more than 140 hectares with up to 3,000 homes and up to 6 million square feet of commercial development supporting up to 27,000 jobs near M42 Junction 6 and Solihull
• 20,000 new homes in Stoke-on-Trent

The route provides access to a number of key manufacturing centres, including Jaguar Land Rover (Birmingham, Coventry, Gaydon, and Solihull), Cadbury (Birmingham), and Aston Martin (Gaydon). Just-in-time deliveries and journey time reliability are particularly important for manufacturing companies such as these.

Heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) make up 16-20% of total traffic flow along much of the route, particularly the M40 between Junctions 10 and 15 and the M42 and M6 in the Birmingham Box. This increases to 45% on the M6 between Junctions 8 and 10A. The route has good connections to international gateways such as Birmingham Airport. Between 2011 and 2019, the West Midlands experienced the greatest growth in HGV traffic of any UK region, an increase of 15%.

However, with anticipated traffic growth and capacity constraints, interested parties have concerns around the route’s ability to maintain efficient access to key hubs such as airports, distribution centres and growth sites as well as serving areas on the levelling up agenda.

One of the key concerns for interested parties is maintaining access to growth sites and the potential Oxford Strategic Rail Freight Interchange (SRFI) at M40 Junction 10. Forecasting for Oxford SRFI demonstrates that future increase in traffic volumes before any additional developments may be sufficient for traffic volumes to exceed road capacity between M40 Junctions 9-10, by 2031. The proposed developments in close proximity to the strategic road network would add further pressure on traffic and exacerbate delays.

 Office of National Statistics data  shows that Birmingham has around 2,500 business premises associated with transport and storage, the 4th highest number in England. The point of entry onto the strategic road network for vehicles travelling from these premises will be the M42, M5, or M6.

There are concerns from interested parties about maintaining efficient access to freight distribution centres along the route, particularly the clusters that are located within the Birmingham Box. These clusters are located near M5 Junctions 2 to 1 and M6 Junctions 5 to 7. General traffic growth, without the addition of traffic associated with new developments, is likely to contribute to capacity constraints and delays along key freight corridors of the M40, M42, M5 and M6, inhibiting efficient freight movements.

In addition to connecting key employment centres, the route also serves  areas of high deprivation  that require increased economic growth, particularly around Birmingham and the Black Country. The Birmingham Box falls into the top 15% of most deprived areas in the UK. Approximately 40% of the population within the corridor are economically active. However, there are locations within the Birmingham Box where the economically active population is as low as 20%.

The index of priority places for Levelling Up Fund places local authorities into categories 1, 2 or 3, depending on their identified level of need, with category 1 representing places deemed in most need of investment through this Fund. The following sections of the route fall within areas which are ranked by Government as category 2 in terms of need for levelling up:

• M40 from south of Junction 10 to the M40/M42 Interchange
• M42 Junctions 3A to 7A
• M5 Junction 3 to M6 Junction 8

Parts of the route which run through areas ranked by government as being in greatest need of levelling up (category 1) are:

• M6 around the Birmingham Box
• M6 Junctions 15 to 16 near Stoke-on-Trent

The route is important in providing access to major tourist attractions including Birmingham City Centre, Birmingham Museum and Art Gallery, the National Exhibition Centre (NEC), Oxford City Centre, Blenheim Palace UNESCO World Heritage Site, The Royal Shakespeare Theatre in Stratford-Upon-Avon, and Warwick Castle. This access to tourist attractions, as well as the prevalence of major towns and cities, and international gateways such as Heathrow airport, mean that the route (particularly the M42 and M40) is also frequently used for leisure traffic, including chartered and scheduled coach travel.

• Significant growth sites located in close proximity to the SRN along the route
• Proportion of HGVs (including coaches) ranges from 16% to 45% along the route
• Traffic volumes on M40 Junctions 9 to 10 expected to exceed capacity by 2031 as a result of wider economic growth
• Levelling up category 1 areas surrounding the SRN in the Birmingham Box and Staffordshire
• Levelling up category 2 areas surrounding the M40 south of Junction 10 to the M40/M42 Interchange, M42 Junction 3A to 7A, and M5 Junction 3 to the M5/M6 Interchange (M6 Junction 8)
• Freight distribution clusters near M5 Junctions 2 to 1 and M6 Junctions 5 to 7
• Frequent leisure travel along the route, especially on the M42 and M40

Road surface The measure for road surface condition has been updated for 2022/23 onwards. The condition is reported as one of our Key Performance Indicators and shows the condition of all available lanes of the main carriageway (excluding M40 Junctions 1 to 15, which is managed through a Design-Build-Finance-Operate (DBFO) contract) based on three elements of the road surface condition namely - the levels of surface rutting (caused by wheel tracks being formed in the surfacing), skid resistance (how slippery the road is) and longitudinal profile (how bumpy the road feels) with a target of 96.2% or more in good condition. At the time of publication, the road surface had a score of 96.7% in good condition, thereby meeting the national surfacing condition target.

This route consists of approximately 1,400 lane-kilometres of road surfacing. The surface condition across the route is considered to be sound, with 97% of pavement asset not requiring investigation for possible maintenance.

Bridges and structures There are 2,036 structures across the route, including bridges and large culverts. According to an analysis of current data, 91% of our structures are in very good or good condition.

Drainage Drainage assets are represented by both linear assets (for example underground pipes, channels, ditches, drains) and nonlinear assets (for example gullies and chambers). At national level, 90% of the drainage assets are in good structural condition and 87% are in good service condition.

Geotechnical features The geotechnical asset, comprising over 12,000 kilometres of earthworks embankments and cuttings carrying the road network is assessed through a programme of inspections and rated for its ability to provide the right level of safe functionality. The condition assessment of this asset is that 99.61% is in good condition to continue to function correctly.

Future developments We have been transforming our approach to maintenance through our Operational Excellence and Asset Management Transformation Programmes. Bringing our key asset maintenance decision making and planning activities back in-house so that our own staff are responsible for planning maintenance activities, along with improving the consistency of our end-to-end maintenance and asset replacement programmes will bring significant benefits.

Operations We are establishing a nationally consistent approach to the management of our operational capability through our Operational Excellence change programme. This will deepen our understanding of how our interventions impact on the performance of the network and on the journeys of our customers.

• Contributing toward the national target of 96.2% or more of carriageway being in good condition
• Maintaining the good condition of the strategic road network’s geotechnical assets
• Ensuring that drainage assets are maintained so that their good structural and service conditions can be upheld

We will support improved communications and facilities for all

The strategic road network (SRN) either side of the M40 has good provision of technology. Both the M25 (south of the M40) and the M42 (north of the M40) have frequent Variable Messaging Signs (VMS), which can be used to provide information to drivers during their journeys. However, there is limited VMS and other technology provision on the M40. This is a significant gap, and an inconsistency for drivers making strategic journeys.

Technology provision on the M5 between Junction 4 and the M5/M6 interchange is also more limited than the adjacent sections of the M5 and M6.

At present, VMS provision on the major road network (MRN) approaching the SRN junctions is limited and inconsistent. Interested parties commented that providing information about conditions on the SRN to drivers before they reach the motorway could help drivers to take more efficient decisions regarding their routes and help to manage delay on the SRN.

The driving experience along this route suffers from a lack of technology including digital connectivity, and communication of driving conditions on the SRN. These communications may include updates regarding conditions on local roads connecting to the SRN and communication of likely delays before drivers reach the end of a queue. Incorporation of new technology has the potential to improve safety along the route, in particular, by tackling poor driving behaviour or by changing how we react to incidents on the network. Electric vehicle charging epoints are located at the various motorway service areas along the route.

• Limited technology provision on the M40
• Technology provision is variable on the M42, M5, and M6, and on the MRN approaching the SRN
• Limited facilities for electric charging for all vehicles (private car and van, coach, and freight) to support transition to ending the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030

The adjacent map highlights current RIS2 schemes, any applicable RIS4 pipeline schemes and locations for future consideration. Click on sections on the map to find out more information.

RIS2 schemes are committed by the DfT to be delivered as part of the Road Investment Strategy. The statement of funding confirmed that £24 billion will be provided during the second road period (2020-2025) to deliver this work, noting that some RIS2 commitments will continue into the third road period (2025-2030).

RIS4 (2030-2035) pipeline schemes, previously earmarked for RIS3 (2025-2030), will continue to be developed in line with statutory processes and considered for inclusion within RIS4. These are potential future schemes originally identified by National Highways and set as part of RIS2 by the DfT. These schemes are not currently committed for construction.