The Aral Sea Disaster over a 60-year Period

Once a bustling transport hub, the Aral port and its thriving fishery were renowned throughout the Soviet Union back in the 1930–50s. The Aral Sea – the world's fourth-largest inland water body in the 20th century – spanned an impressive 68,000 sq. km. The rivers feeding the lake also supplied water to neighbouring towns, thus laying the foundation for the historic Silk Route.

The Aral Sea was home to several species of endemic fish, marine animals and plants. The sea held significant importance for transport, fisheries, climate and society, and was often referred to as a "pearl" within the Aralkum Desert.

Muynak, in Uzbekistan’s Karakalpakstan, was once the largest and most important fishing port on the Aral Sea, with a population of over 30,000 people. Many of them worked in the fish processing and canning sector, supplying the Soviet Union with tinned fish and reputedly the best caviar.

Personal story of my grandmother (Agima Mashenova, 72), who lived in Muynak until 1980.

"As I recount it now, it sounds like a fairy tale. Muynak was the most beautiful place we had ever lived in. When we were around 15–20 years old, we used to go swimming every single day and travel on big ferries to other nearby cities. So many people used to come from all over the Soviet Union to spend their weekends. At that time, the main dish on the table was, of course, fish. I still remember the taste of that fish. When the sea began to dry up, indeed, we noticed it; the economy and the well-being of citizens decreased noticeably. By the 1970–80s, the situation on the shoreline had completely deteriorated, and we had to move away from Muynak. There was nothing else we could do but leave..."

The Aral Sea did not die overnight: the shrinking process lasted 50–60 years. Discussions about redirecting water from the rivers that supplied the Aral Sea began around 160 years before the sea eventually vanished.

In 1908, Russian climatologist and geographer A.I. Voeykov spoke for the first time about using the Aral Sea for "useful" purposes to meet the needs of the Russian Empire. In the 1950s, the leadership of the Post Soviet Union decided to significantly expand the acreage of cotton in the Aral basin.

Cotton was the main crop grown in Central Asia given the favourable climate and soil conditions. However, cotton cultivation is highly water-dependent, requiring significant irrigation during planting and regular watering throughout the growth stages. Prior to the 1950s, the water intake from the rivers feeding into the Aral Sea remained below a critical threshold, resulting in a decline in the sea's water level and an imbalance in its hydrology. The situation was further aggravated by human activities, leading to a decrease in the amount of water reaching the sea. In spite of these effects, there was a significant increase in water extraction from the region's two largest rivers – the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya – raising concerns in the 1970s. Despite the poor irrigation system and water scarcity issues, there was a substantial expansion in cotton cultivation during the same period, resulting in the doubling of the cotton crop area.

The deteriorating condition of the Aral Sea was hidden for decades in the Soviet Union until 1985, when Gorbachev made this environmental disaster public.

The Aral Sea situation is a striking example of the neglect of warnings and blind faith in the ability of science and technology to take from Nature as much as necessary.

While the condition of the Aral Sea was not widely known or recognized for a significant period, there were scientific warnings and technological attempts to address the issue. As early as the 1960s, scientists began to raise concerns about the environmental degradation and shrinking of the sea. They highlighted the consequences of excessive water diversion from rivers and the subsequent drying up of a once-vibrant ecosystem. Technological attempts were also made to mitigate the situation. Engineers and experts devised various strategies to address the water shortage and restore the sea's water levels. However, despite these scientific warnings and technological efforts, the magnitude of the crisis proved difficult to overcome fully and shows the harmful effects of short-term benefits without due consideration of possible long-term negative impacts.

The idea of halting irrigation from two source rivers to replenish the Aral Sea is an interesting proposition. However, several factors need to be considered when evaluating the feasibility and potential consequences of such a decision.

1. Water rights and agreements: The two source rivers likely have allocated water rights and agreements in place for irrigation purposes. These agreements may involve multiple stakeholders, including farmers, industries and neighbouring countries. Halting the irrigation could have legal and diplomatic implications and would require the renegotiation of these agreements.
2. Socioeconomic impact: Irrigation from the source rivers is crucial for local agriculture and economies. Stopping the flow could lead to the loss of livelihoods for riparian farmers, as communities and ecosystems rely on that water supply. It could also disrupt industrial activities and affect the overall economy of the region. Therefore, cutting off the water supply without alternative provisions could have adverse effects on these areas.
3. Environmental considerations: While the intention behind replenishing the Aral Sea is commendable, it's essential to consider the ecological impact. The ecosystems that have developed around the irrigated areas may be dependent on the existing water sources. Halting the irrigation could cause significant disruption to these ecosystems, potentially leading to unintended environmental consequences.
4. Infrastructure challenges: Diverting water from source rivers to the Aral Sea would require extensive infrastructure modifications, such as building canals or redirecting existing irrigation networks. These infrastructure projects would be costly and time-consuming, and their feasibility would need to be carefully assessed.

While the idea of halting irrigation from source rivers to replenish the Aral Sea seems appealing, it involves complex considerations related to water rights, economic impacts, environmental consequences and infrastructure challenges. Any decision would require careful planning, stakeholder involvement and a comprehensive analysis of the potential benefits and risks involved.

In recent years, the concept of nature-based solutions (NbS) has gained significant attention as a promising approach to addressing societal challenges while simultaneously providing benefits to both human well-being and biodiversity. The term "nature-based solutions" emerged in the late 2000s, closely associated with the Convention on Biological Diversity's (CBD) "ecosystem approach" method. Since then, organizations like the International Union for Conservation of Nature and the European Commission have further developed and popularized the concept. With the  UNEA-5 decision , it was determined that a universally agreed definition of NbS is necessary, considering the importance of scaling up adaptation efforts in which NbS will play a crucial role.

One of the key reasons for the growing popularity of NbS is their relative cost-efficiency compared to traditional approaches. Numerous studies have highlighted the wide range of benefits offered by NbS, including biodiversity conservation, ecosystem restoration and climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Over the past three decades, the restoration of the Aral Sea ecosystem has primarily focused on afforestation of the drained seabed to mitigate the sandstorms that cause erosion and further degrade the fragile soils.

Afforestation measures have gained significant attention as an effective approach to combat desertification and mitigate climate change impacts in the Aral Sea region. By planting trees and shrubs, afforestation helps stabilize soil, reduce wind erosion, and increase carbon sequestration potential. However, the success of afforestation efforts relies on careful planning, species selection, and post-forestation monitoring.

The Governments of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have implemented large-scale afforestation activities on the dried-out Aral seabed. Native species like Saxaul, Salsola Richteri, Calligonum caput-medusae, Krascheninnikovia eversmanniana and Artemisia ferganensis have shown the ability to thrive in sandy, loamy and saline soils, making them suitable choices for afforestation. These species effectively reduce wind erosion, minimize dust storms and improve soil quality. However, challenges such as high salt and sand contents in some areas, subpar soil conditions and the need for thorough site assessment must be considered during the planning phase.

Monitoring and research play a crucial role in ensuring successful afforestation. Unfortunately, the lack of comprehensive monitoring and research in the Aral Sea region has hindered the understanding of the environmental impacts of afforestation. Positive outcomes include increased tree cover, improved soil stabilization and enhanced water retention, but challenges such as inadequate site selection and insufficient management practices highlight the need for policy-science collaboration to design and implement effective afforestation strategies for long-term environmental benefits.

Protected areas, including national parks, nature reserves and wildlife sanctuaries, play a vital role in preserving ecosystems and the services they provide.

Uzbekistan has made commendable progress in expanding its protected area network in Karakalpakstan. The establishment of protected areas, such as the Lower Amu Darya Biosphere Reserve, Saigachiy complex nature reserve, South Ustyurt National Park, Sudochye-Akpetki state wildlife sanctuary and Aralkum National Park, demonstrates the Government’s commitment to achieving biodiversity targets and sustainable development goals.

To ensure the effectiveness of protected areas, management plans must be developed and implemented. The efficient management of these areas enables the preservation of biodiversity, connectivity with surrounding landscapes, and the provision of ecosystem services. Furthermore, the connectivity of protected areas through green corridors facilitates the movement of migratory animal species, contributing to ecosystem resilience.

While afforestation measures and protected areas offer promising pathways towards restoring ecosystem resilience in the Aral Sea region, several challenges and research gaps remain:

1. Resilience of afforested areas: Assessing the resilience of afforested areas to weather changes, temperature fluctuations, and water availability is crucial for their long-term sustainability. Research and monitoring efforts should focus on evaluating the adaptive capacity and response of planted species to ensure the success of afforestation measures.
2. Water management: Afforestation activities require careful consideration of water availability and consumption to prevent unintended consequences on water resources and local communities. Studying the hydrological balance and developing sustainable water management strategies are essential aspects of afforestation planning.
3. Governance and management: Effective governance and management of protected areas are paramount to ensure their conservation objectives are met sustainably. Strengthening institutional capacities, promoting community engagement, and integrating traditional knowledge systems can contribute to the successful management of protected areas in the Aral Sea region.
4. Socio-economic benefits: Assessing the socio-economic benefits and livelihood opportunities associated with afforestation measures and protected areas is crucial for garnering local support and ensuring the long-term sustainability of these interventions. Research should explore the potential economic incentives and community empowerment aspects of NbS in the Aral Sea region.

Afforestation measures and the establishment of protected areas hold significant promise as NbS to restore ecosystem resilience in the Aral Sea region. By stabilizing soils, reducing wind erosion, preserving biodiversity and providing ecosystem services, these interventions contribute to mitigating the ecological degradation caused by the Aral Sea's decline. However, addressing challenges related to species selection, monitoring, water management, governance and socioeconomic aspects is crucial for the success and sustainability of these NbS. By prioritizing research, collaboration and adaptive management, we can support the revival of the Aral Sea's ecosystem and improve the well-being of local communities.

The Aral Sea is situated in Central Asia, between the Southern part of Kazakhstan and Northern Uzbekistan. Up until the third quarter of the 20th century, it was the world's fourth largest saline lake, and contained 10 grams of salt per liter. The two rivers that feed it are the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers, respectively reaching the Sea through the South and the North.

The Aral Sea dried up as the waters of its source rivers were diverted for irrigation. The waters of two main rivers, the Syr Darya and the Amu Darya, were used for cotton cultivation, decreasing the sea’s water level over the years.

Most of the changes in climate and landscape in the Aral Sea basin are at least indirect products of human-induced changes. While society is responsible for the crisis that has unfolded in and around the Aral, most of the actual changes that have afflicted the Sea since the 1960s are the result of our environment’s reaction to the stresses society has imposed on it.

Aral Sea’s eastern basin began shrinking in the 1960s. In 2000, Asia’s the Aral Sea had already shrunk to a fraction of its 1960 extent. Extensive irrigation and dry weather caused her eastern lobe to completely dry in 2014, for the time in 600 years.

There are many discussions ongoing. Facts point to the sea's recovery being unlikely, given the circumstances and erosion of the seabed. Moreover, if present trends continue, the Aral Sea will completely disappear in 20 years. However, prioritizing research and adaptive management can support the revival of the Aral Sea's ecosystem and improve the well-being of local communities.