Vintage 2021 Esri Time Series Totals

Esri Methodology Statement, June 2021

By Esri Data Development

Introduction

The year 2021 marks the third annual release of Esri's Time Series estimates for total population, households, and housing units. Esri's Time Series database contains data for every year between the previous decennial census and Esri's current estimates at all levels of geography down to the block group level. For 2021, the Time Series covers the entire decade from 2010 to 2021. This database provides users with valuable insight into the past to evaluate trends and patterns.

Data sources and model

Esri's Time Series estimates are released annually alongside the current-year estimates of total population, households, and housing units. With each annual release, the entire Time Series is revised from July 1, 2010, through July 1 of the year prior to the current release of Esri's Updated Demographics. The revised Time Series estimates fill the void between Census 2010 and Updated Demographics, providing a historical view from the census year to the current year. Since the estimates for all years will be revised each year, the Time Series estimates are referred to by their vintage, using the current year to denote the vintage of the Time Series estimates. Therefore, the Vintage 2021 Time Series includes estimates for July 1, 2010, through July 1, 2021. 

The decennial census is a snapshot of the population on April 1, 2010. Esri's Time Series begins with a July 1, 2010, point estimate. This July 1 estimate includes a multitude of corrections made to the census via notes and errata from the Census Bureau as well as research performed by Esri throughout the decade. The July 1, 2010, estimate not only gives Esri the opportunity to make improvements to census counts but also allows for a uniform year-over-year data series based on a standard point in time. Typical census errors include missed housing units, housing units counted where there are none, and group quarters that were misclassified or counted in the wrong location. Esri fixes these errors and omissions whenever possible to ensure that the Time Series database has a solid and stable base to build on.

Demographic change has traditionally been measured by comparing the previous decennial census to estimates from the current year of Esri Updated Demographics. Prior to the release of Time Series estimates, changes such as methodological improvements and the integration of new source data precluded comparison of estimates from the current year to previous years. With Time Series estimates, every attempt is made to build a consistent temporal dataset that can be used to evaluate year-over-year change since the previous decennial census. Model inputs are backfilled when possible, and erratic change has been dampened throughout the database. In many cases where modeling proved consistent, the Time Series estimates will be unchanged from Esri's annual release of Updated Demographics.

Standard statistical and political geography changes are made throughout the decade. To conduct meaningful and accurate analysis, geographic areas must be stable. Time Series estimates use the most recent geographic boundaries for all years of data. This is particularly valuable for geographies that change on a regular basis, such as ZIP Codes, places, congressional districts, and Core-Based Statistical Areas.

Data resources

For more information about Esri's vintage time series data, visit  esri.com/esri_data  or call 1-800-447-9778.

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About Esri's data development team

Led by chief demographer Kyle R. Cassal, Esri's data development team has more than a 40-year history of excellence in market intelligence. The team's economists, statisticians, demographers, geographers, and analysts produce independent small-area demographic and socioeconomic estimates and forecasts for the United States. The team develops exclusive demographic models and methodologies to create market-proven datasets, many of which are now industry benchmarks, such as Tapestry™ Segmentation, Consumer Spending, Market Potential, and annual Updated Demographics. Esri® Demographics power ArcGIS® through dynamic web maps, data enrichment, reports, and infographics.

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