Increasing Shared Prosperity for a Resilient Economy

Increasing Shared Prosperity for a Resilient Economy: Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy (CEDS) for Southeast Michigan is a strategy-driven framework that provides the region with a roadmap for economic success.

This CEDS employs an approach to economic development for the seven-county Southeast Michigan region that is comprehensive both in the scope of its interrelated strategies and in its focus on regional collaboration to advance them. 

The CEDS was developed by SEMCOG, the Southeast Michigan Council of Governments, and the Metropolitan Affairs Coalition (MAC), with the guidance and support of a regional Economic Development Strategy Task Force. This storymap explored the regional economic framework, current conditions and trends, and recommendations for implementation.

The CEDS supports SEMCOG's vision for Southeast Michigan:

All people in Southeast Michigan benefit from a connected, thriving region of small towns, dynamic urban centers, active waterfronts, diverse neighborhoods, premier educational institutions, and abundant agricultural, recreational, and natural areas.

However, in order to meet this vision, the region must have:

The six interrelated strategies (shown in the wheel of the left) support the three pillars to economic development in Southeast Michigan – Place, Business, and Talent.   

SEMCOG’s research, data analysis, and long-range forecast of population, households, and jobs provide an understanding of the region’s future economic and demographic outlook and the coming challenges facing the region. The COVID-19 pandemic is accelerating many long-term structural changes. These include: Manufacturing; Healthcare Services; Retail Trade; Transportation and Mobility; Workforce and Talent; and Shared Prosperity.

SEMCOG has developed a mapping application that provides an estimate of nonworking residents - or people who are either not employed or looking for work. The intention of Laborshed in Southeast Michigan - Linking Residents to Workplaces is to help connect workers to employers that need talent.

In addition to the described structural changes in Southeast Michigan, there are several performance measures that are used to track economic progress. These include measures from previous regional CEDS, as well as new and forward-looking measures that reflect trends regionally and nationally due to both the COVID-19 pandemic and shifts in a gradually diversifying economy. 

After losing population between 2001 and 2011, Southeast Michigan’s population started growing again in 2012, and this growth is expected to continue through 2045. However, this growth will be slow, reaching our previous high of 4.8 million by 2027 and 5.1 million by 2045.

The 2045 Forecast Explorer map below allows you to view SEMCOG’s detailed long-range forecast of population, households, and jobs for each county, and community, and traffic analysis zone in the seven county Southeast Michigan region.

Southeast Michigan’s infrastructure – our transportation network, water/sewer systems, utilities, and telecommunications/broadband systems – provides the foundation on which our communities and our economy depend. While our infrastructure is a massive asset to build upon, much of it is aging and in disrepair. There are also unmet needs, such as the lack of availability and affordability of broadband service in several parts of the region. Conversely, there are also opportunities to repurpose unneeded infrastructure and facilities in a way that can benefiting the economy and quality of life.

The region’s robust transportation system is an asset that supports the quality of life for over 4.7 million residents, and helps sustain businesses and enhance our economy. This system includes:

The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated and significantly accelerated the region’s critical need for available and affordable broadband access for education, business and quality of place. Broadband infrastructure is critical for every element of our lives. It is an essential tool for remote learning, work-from-home, economic development, community services, creating quality places and attracting talent, and access to essential services.

The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) defines broadband as high-speed internet delivered at speeds of 25 megabits per second (mbps) download and three mbps upload. SEMCOG’s interactive Broadband Availability and Usage map includes number of broadband providers, households not using broadband, and households with no computer. 

Providing bicycle and pedestrian mobility options is also important and a key component of our region’s transportation system. Almost every trip, including those made by automobile and transit, likely begins or ends with walking or biking. Additionally, a connected nonmotorized system improves quality of life in the region by increasing mobility, health, and recreation options for people of all ages and abilities. It also helps spur placemaking efforts that support both local and regional economic vitality.

Southeast Michigan has more than 3,500 mile network of bicycle infrastructure and regional trails as well as more than 24,000 miles of sidewalks.  

The region’s parks, trails, waterfronts, and protected lands highlight unique natural landscapes and provide year-round opportunities to be active and enjoy outdoor recreation. Southeast Michigan has more than 200,000 acres of parkland, which is owned and operated by local communities and counties, the Huron-Clinton Metropolitan Authority, State of Michigan, federal agencies, and private entities. They are connected by a network of regional trails and waterways, providing hundreds of miles of opportunities for hiking, biking, boating, and paddling. As components of a regional recreation system, parks and trails can provide significant economic benefits. They increase property values, tourism opportunities, and municipal revenues, and they help attract and retain residents in Southeast Michigan. 

Economic resilience is generally defined as the ability to withstand economic shocks, being able to recover quickly from a shock, and the preparedness to avoid the shock altogether. For Southeast Michigan, resilience needs have primarily been tied to industrial diversification, which can prevent destabilization of the regional economy in case of a “shock” to one industry. Additionally, resilience planning involves determining risks and exposure to significant natural disasters, such as increased flooding that threatens critical facilities, infrastructure, and delivery of services. The lasting impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic emphasize the need to ensure that the region’s economic resiliency includes planning and protections from the wide range of economic shocks of a global health pandemic. This planning and protection includes addressing the immediate impacts social distancing measures have on businesses - especially small and local businesses. It also involves longer-term and potentially permanent changes to office space needs. The transition to remote work and learning has shown that access to affordable broadband infrastructure is a critical need for long-term resiliency.

As severe flooding events persist and changing rainfall patterns worsen going forward, SEMCOG is working to understand vulnerabilities in the transportation and infrastructure networks and determine best practices to address these challenges. Products of a recently completed Climate Resiliency study will support transportation planning and stormwater management activities.

The COVID-19 crisis and social justice demonstrations of 2020 underscore the importance of health and equity to our region’s economic prosperity. Both need to be addressed so all residents can realize prosperity from future economic growth.

The COVID-19 pandemic has made clear that our region’s public health and economy are linked. The closure of thousands of businesses resulted in the unemployment rate jumping from 4.4 percent in March 2020 to 23.3 percent in April. As the initial wave subsided and the economy slowly reopened, the unemployment rate fell to 6.7 percent in October. However, a second wave of the virus resulted in a new round of business restrictions leading to the unemployment rate rising to 8.3 percent in November. Containment of the virus and broad distribution of a vaccine are vital for economic growth to return.

The economic shutdown and social justice protests of 2020 magnified the racial and economic inequality across the nation and within our region. This inequality is evident in SEMCOG and the University of Michigan’s study,  Evaluating Shared Prosperity in Southeast Michigan , which looked at whether the most recent economic expansion (pre-pandemic) was realized by all residents.  This study emphasizes that when there are downturns in the economy, there is a significantly greater disproportional and negative impact among low-skills, low-wage workers, and that these workers are disproportionately people of color. Additionally, these same impacted populations are less likely to experience gains when there is an economic recovery, and those who do are likely to have a more limited recovery. As today’s economy requires highly-skilled workers with more education, this disparity of opportunities and other factors such as job training, are likely to persist with future recoveries without policies and supports available to assist with prosperity reaching all households, especially those of color and lower-income. 

Through task force input, public engagement, stakeholder guidance, and research and analysis, several elements that influence the region’s economy have been identified. SWOT refers to four considerations: strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats, all of which impact the region’s economic resilience. The first two columns in the table below represent internal factors (i.e., our region’s relative competitive advantages and disadvantages), and the last two columns are generally characterized by external influences (i.e., chances for regional improvement or progress and changes for negative impacts on the region). The following SWOT table succinctly demonstrates where Southeast Michigan is now, where there needs to be improvement, areas of concern within the global environment, and possible areas to advance shared prosperity.

Increasing Shared Prosperity for a Resilient Economy builds on Southeast Michigan’s previous economic development strategies,  Partnering for Prosperity (2016)  and  Increasing Jobs and Prosperity (2010) . It focuses on six overlapping strategies and related policies and actions that support recovery and resiliency. They enable the region to adapt to the impact of COVID-19 and build systems that support future economic growth. The ongoing pandemic has exposed and exacerbated underlying challenges that need to be addressed before the region can truly build a resilient economy.

Resiliency is defined as the ability to rebound from natural, environmental, or economic challenges and build the foundations for a stronger, more inclusive economy. A resilient economy promotes shared prosperity and diversity; equal access to essential services such as education, healthcare, recreation, broadband and economic opportunities; and creating a region and population that can more rapidly rebound from major or unforeseen events in the future.

The six broad strategies are:

Increasing Shared Prosperity for a Resilient Economy is Southeast Michigan’s Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy (CEDS). As such, it is a necessary mechanism through which the U.S. Economic Development Administration (EDA) evaluates grant and resource requests for organizations in the seven-county region (Livingston, Macomb, Monroe, Oakland, St. Clair, Washtenaw and Wayne Counties) to pursue EDA grants and other resources.

For current and updated dashboards, maps, and tools please visit  SEMCOG's Economic Development webpage .

Throughout 2021, SEMCOG and MAC are taking a closer look at the effects of the pandemic on specific issues that are key to our quality of life and prosperity. Please learn more at SEMCOG’s The New Future of Southeast Michigan  website . 

We would like to thank our stakeholders who provided input into developing Increasing Shared Prosperity for a Resilient Economy, especially the  SEMCOG/MAC Economic Development Strategy Task Force.