The Impact of the Idaho LAUNCH grant on college enrollment

This analysis presents high level trends of all fall enrollment at Idaho's public postsecondary institutions and then delves deeper into the enrollment of those who enrolled directly from an Idaho public high school. It finds that postsecondary enrollment (excluding dual credit enrollment) increased by 2,608 students (nearly 5%) from Fall 2023 to Fall 2024. Resident enrollment accounted for most of this increase. Most significantly, the number of resident undergraduates increased by 1,594 (5%) while the number of resident Career Technical students increased by 666 (16%). Every Idaho public postsecondary institution experienced an increase in the number of resident students enrolled.

The  Idaho LAUNCH grant program  was not available to all Idaho residents - it was only available to 2024 Idaho high school graduates. These students saw especially large enrollment increases. The number of Idaho public high school graduates enrolling directly into Idaho public postsecondary institutions increased by 665 students (2022-23 graduates versus 2023-24 graduates). This was a 11% increase in the number of students enrolled and a 3 percentage point increase in the fall immediate college going rate for Idaho public postsecondary institutions. This increase was concentrated among certain groups. Community colleges saw an increase of 353 Idaho public high school graduates enrolling (an 18% increase) versus college/universities with an increase of 312 (a 7% increase). Traditionally under-represented students saw the largest increases. Among public high school graduates, Hispanic student enrollment jumped 16% while economically disadvantaged student enrollment increased 15%. Students with GPAs less than 2.7 saw a 19% increase compared to an 11 to 12% increase for students with GPAs between 2.7 and 3.7 and a 6% increase for students with GPAs 3.7 and above.

These enrollment increases occurred in spite of the technical issues associated with the U.S. Department of Education's update of the FAFSA. Idaho was extremely successful in mitigating any impact of the FAFSA update. In fact, there were more 2024 Idaho public high school graduates who completed the FAFSA than 2022 or 2023 graduates, both in terms of the share of total graduates and in terms of the raw number of graduates who completed. It is possible that part of this increase was due to the excitement around the Idaho LAUNCH grant. Finally, in addition to the FAFSA problems, there is another factor that may have depressed fall enrollment: a decrease in the Idaho Opportunity Scholarship offers and awards for 2024 graduates. The fact that enrollment numbers increased despite this drop in Opportunity Scholarship offers suggests that Idaho LAUNCH likely had a particularly strong upward effect on enrollment.

Idaho public postsecondary institutions enroll many Idaho dual credit students. This large dual credit population is made possible by Idaho's innovative Advanced Opportunities program which gives Idaho students in 7th through 12th grades access to funds to use on programs such as dual credit, Advanced Placement, career technical education, and workforce training. The Office of the State Board of Education (OSBE) generally differentiates between dual credit enrollment and all other postsecondary enrollment in reporting so as to better understand trends in both types of enrollment.

OSBE publishes an in-depth analysis of postsecondary fall enrollment annually (see  Postsecondary Enrollment | Fall 2024  for the latest report). According to that analysis, postsecondary enrollment (excluding dual credit enrollment) is 4.6% higher in Fall 2024 than it was in Fall 2023 and 1.7% higher than it was in Fall 2019. Nearly all institutions saw some increase in enrollment - many were beyond 2019 fall enrollment levels.

The largest increases in non-dual credit enrollment were in the Academic Undergraduate and Career Technical Education (CTE) categories. Career Technical enrollment increased by 15.2% (672 students) while Undergraduate enrollment increased by 4.4% (1,876 students).

Resident student enrollment also saw growth, increasing by 5.6% while non-resident enrollment increased by only 1.9%.

The enrollment grouping that most closely aligns to those who enroll directly from an Idaho public high school is the Academic | Undergraduate | Resident category. This grouping saw a one year increase of 5.1% (1,594 students) and every institution saw one year increases.

It is important to note that this enrollment grouping does not 100% align with the "direct from high school" population because it includes those who are returning back to postsecondary (Sophomore, Junior, Senior) as well as those who are enrolling for the first time. This particular enrollment aggregation would also include enrollment from private high schools and those who had been homeschooled or received a GED.

The full Fall 2024 enrollment report can be viewed below.

The Idaho LAUNCH program was focused on a very specific type of student - 2024 Idaho high school graduates. The rest of this analysis focuses on better understanding enrollment patterns for those students. We do not have enrollment data for all students who used Idaho LAUNCH funds. Public, private and homeschooled Idaho high school graduates (and equivalent) were eligible for the LAUNCH grant and graduates could use those funds to attend either public or private postsecondary institutions in Idaho (in addition to workforce training opportunities). However, the Idaho statewide longitudinal data system only includes students who attend public schools and, therefore, only students who graduated from an Idaho public high school and attended an Idaho public postsecondary institution could be included in the rest of the analysis.

The first analysis, "what is", is focused on actual Idaho public college enrollment for those who enrolled directly from an Idaho high school. The analysis looks at the change from both 2017-18 to 2023-24 and from 2022-23 to 2023-24. This population would be most affected by the Idaho LAUNCH grant program (LAUNCH). However, LAUNCH would also impact those who graduated from high school and attended workforce training. So while this analysis will capture much of the impact of LAUNCH, it will not capture all. This analysis is based on enrollment numbers - it compares the state of enrollment in past years to the state of enrollment this year.

The second analysis is more speculative, a "what if" analysis. It examines what other factors were at play in 2024 and how those factors may have dampened or enhanced the impact of LAUNCH on college enrollment. Preliminarily, I conclude that the change in the unemployment rate would have had little impact on enrollment, LAUNCH and other efforts mitigated obstacles resulting from the new FAFSA update, and the decrease in the number of Opportunity Scholarships would have decreased enrollment from the levels last year. Therefore, there was likely a greater impact of LAUNCH on enrollment than seen in the actual change from 2023 to 2024.

Cate Collins, Principal Research Analyst

Dr. Cathleen McHugh, Chief Research Officer

The LAUNCH grant was not the only thing that changed between 2023 and 2024. In this analysis, I try to understand the degree to which changes in enrollment may be due to other factors. I identified three factors that changed between 2023 and 2024 - the unemployment rate, the FAFSA update, and the number of Idaho Opportunity Scholarships awarded. Further research will be needed to solidify these impacts. Preliminarily, I conclude that the change in the unemployment rate would have had little impact on enrollment, LAUNCH and other efforts mitigated obstacles resulting from the new FAFSA update, and the decrease in the number of Opportunity Scholarships would have decreased enrollment from the levels last year. Therefore, there was likely a greater impact of LAUNCH on enrollment than seen in the actual change from 2023 to 2024.

The graduating class of 2024 saw slightly higher statewide unemployment rates than did the graduating classes of 2022 and 2023 but lower rates than the graduating class of 2021. In a simple statistical model (assuming students consider the February statewide rate), the unemployment rate was not statistically significant post-COVID. Recall that the Idaho college going rate in 2021 was the same as that in 2022 (28%) and only slightly lower than the rate in 2023 (29%). This suggests that the level of unemployment has not been a driving factor in deciding to enroll in Idaho post-COVID and, thus, is likely fairly neutral in terms of the increase in Idaho college going seen in 2024.

However, correctly modeling the impact that the unemployment rate would have on college enrollment for graduating seniors is difficult for several reasons. First, it is not clear which unemployment rates graduates would consider if they did, in fact, consider them in deciding whether or not to enroll in college. Would they consider the local unemployment rate, the statewide unemployment rate, or the national unemployment rate? At what time do they consider them? Do they consider them in the fall of their senior year, the winter of their senior year, or the spring of their senior year? Second, it is not clear that years prior to COVID could be used to understand post-COVID behavior. There are only four years post-COVID (including 2024) and not much variation in unemployment rates for several of those years. This is an area where more research needs to be done.

It is widely known that there were many technical issues associated with the U.S. Department of Education's update of the FAFSA. For the 2024-25 FAFSA award year (applicable to 2024 high school graduates), all FAFSA deadlines were delayed due to these technical issues. For Idaho public institutions, financial aid offers were delayed by approximately 3 months (see the Appendix for a timeline of awards in 2023 versus 2024).

Considerable resources were directed towards alleviating the impact of the FAFSA update on students.  Nationally reported numbers  suggest that these efforts were not enough to overcome the obstacles created by the FAFSA update. However, these measures are estimates and tend to undercount small high schools. Examining student level data for Idaho public high school graduates shows that these efforts were, in fact, incredibly successful. There were more 2024 Idaho public high school graduates who completed the FAFSA than 2022 or 2023 graduates, both in terms of the share of total graduates and in terms of the raw number of graduates who completed.

As can be seen in the graph, 2024 FAFSA completions only exceeded 2023 completions because of summer completions. These late completions were likely made possible due to efforts undertaken by the Idaho State Board of Education, which applied for and received a grant to hire college and career counselors to staff summer office hours.

It is possible that part of the FAFSA success story was due to LAUNCH. Even though LAUNCH does not require a FAFSA, graduates who were offered a LAUNCH grant were much more likely to complete the FAFSA compared than graduates who did not receive a LAUNCH grant.

This could be merely correlation. It could be that graduates who were offered a LAUNCH grant would have filled out the FAFSA even in absence of the grant. However, there is an argument to be made that there was a causal relationship. There was tremendous awareness and enthusiasm about LAUNCH. Contingent offers for both LAUNCH and the Opportunity Scholarship were made in December, prior to the FAFSA even opening. There was also awareness that LAUNCH grants could only cover up to 80 percent of tuition and fees and that the recipient would have to provide the remaining 20 percent either through the Pell Grant, other scholarships, or their own financial resources. It is possible that students were encouraged to complete the FAFSA upon learning that they had already been offered a LAUNCH grant. Further analysis is needed to know if this is merely correlation or if there is a causal relationship. To the degree that it was causal, then any enrollment effects due to FAFSA completion could be attributed, in part, to LAUNCH. To the degree that it is just correlation, then FAFSA completion would have enhanced a LAUNCH impact on enrollment.

The Idaho Opportunity Scholarship is another award available to graduating seniors. A student can be awarded up to $3,500 per year for a maximum of 4 years as long as renewal conditions are met. Students must meet a minimum GPA threshold to be awarded the scholarship, and awards are made based on a combination of GPA and financial need as determined by the FAFSA (see the Appendix for more details on the Idaho Opportunity Scholarship versus the Idaho LAUNCH grant). The amount of funds available for new awards fluctuates for the Opportunity Scholarship. Renewals are given priority so the number of new awards possible depends on the number of renewals that have to be funded.

The number of awards to graduating seniors dropped from 2,447 to 1,592 between 2023 and 2024 (a total of 855 or 35% fewer awards). The number of students offered an Opportunity Scholarship dropped from 3,342 to 2,143 in the same period. This decrease in offers and awards for the Opportunity Scholarship likely had an impact on Idaho fall enrollment.

Being offered an Opportunity Scholarship has been shown to  change a student's college going behavior . Some students that are offered an Opportunity Scholarship would have enrolled in the absence of the offer; some would not. The earlier analysis showed that the probability a student would enroll in an Idaho postsecondary institution increased by 15 percentage points if that student were offered an Opportunity Scholarship. In other words, increasing the number of Opportunity Scholarship offers by 100 would result in 15 more enrollments in Idaho institutions. The converse is also true. Decreasing the number of Opportunity Scholarship offers by 100 would result in 15 fewer enrollments in Idaho institutions.

That analysis is not necessarily completely applicable to the change between 2023 and 2024. First, that analysis included enrollment in both public and private Idaho institutions. Second, that analysis covered a version of the Opportunity Scholarship that had a higher GPA requirement (3.0 versus 2.7) and a lower award amount ($3,000 versus $3,500). Third, that analysis was prior to COVID. However, that analysis does suggest that, in the absence of LAUNCH, enrollments would have declined slightly. Therefore, LAUNCH likely had a bigger impact than that seen by just comparing changes in enrollment from year to year.

This analysis was only made possible because the Board's data team and the institution's Institutional Research offices worked together to gather fall enrollment earlier than normal. Thank you!