NORTHEAST REGION

• Population - Is the region growing and by how much?
• Diversity - Is the area becoming more diverse and where?
• Age - How is the region aging and where are certain age cohorts more prevalent?
• Income - How are regional incomes changing over time?
• Employment - What are the major sectors and how does this influence local incomes and housing?
• Housing Occupancy - What are trends in ownership and renters?
• Housing Vacancy - Is the region seeing more housing vacancy and where?
• Housing Age - How old is the housing stock and what does this mean for policy?
• Housing Condition - Correlated to the age of housing, a snapshot of where the condition is above or below average.
• Owner and Renter Cost Burden - Are residents in the region experiencing more or less burden to pay for housing, not including other necessary expenses like transportation?

Note, there are concerns throughout the country regarding undercounts in the 2020 population. These are issues to be considered locally when creating policy related to housing demand and needs. 

• Like many areas of Kansas, population growth between 2010 and 2020 was focused in urban counties. 

• The large percent growth in Pottawatomie County is a result of people working in Manhattan and living across the county line in Pottawatomie County. 

• Note the overall population change was about 4,000 people in Pottawatomie County versus about 800 people in Riley County.

• Growth in Leavenworth County aligns with trends of county growth occurring adjacent to metropolitan areas, in this case Kansas City. 

• Minority population includes all those that do not identify themselves white, non-Hispanic.
• Like Kansas, the Northeast region is becoming more diverse, and many counties are becoming more diverse than the state as a whole. Only Geary County became less diverse, although the County is overall much more diverse than others in the region with nearly 50% of residents identifying as not white/non-Hispanic. 

Change in Minority Population 2010-2020

• Morris County, one of the counties with the highest owner-occupied rate, has the largest percent of its population over 55 years old. 
• More urban areas have lower shares of people over 55 years old, in the case of the Northeast region, a result of students at Kansas State University and military personnel at Fort Riley. These are mostly local transitional populations and if enrollment or base size remains constant do not demand significant housing other than replacement of older units.

Population Over 55 Years Old - 2019

Population by Age – Northeast region vs Kansas - 2019

• Incomes tend to be lower in more rural parts of the region and growing at a slower rate. 
• The areas with lower increases in household income tend to also be those with lower housing production and lower housing condition ratings. 
• While Waubaunsee and Jackson Counties have high owner-occupancy rates, incomes grew modestly since 2010. This can be from an older, retiree population with fixed incomes who own their home. 
• Morris County also has a high owner-occupancy rate and also high growth in incomes, perhaps working households with incomes to support homeownership. 
• The illustration below shows what typical wages might be for common jobs in the region. While median incomes may be higher than average in a county like Leavenworth County, there are still essential workers that make much less and require appropriate housing options locally or must spend more on transportation costs to live outside of where they work. 

Median Household Income - 2019

Median Salary of Local Metro Occupations

People with adequate incomes may first decide where they want to live rather than first seek employment. However, many other people do not have as much flexibility and must find housing after finding employment. 

• Riley and Leavenworth County are major employment centers in the Northeast region and draw the most employees as a proportion of their county population. 
• The regional employment base includes a strong focus in healthcare, education, and manufacturing. The wage ranges in the fields can vary greatly, but all include entry level essential worker positions like nurses, school teachers, and line workers.
• In Geary County, 29% of the total labor force is in the armed forces and 14% in Riley County. 
• Of note is that 27% to 29% of the population over 16 years old in these two counties are not in the labor force. 

Percent Change in Civilian Labor Force - 2010-2019

Where the Northeast Region’s Employed Civilian Population Works - 2019

• Not surprising, Riley County, home of Kansas State University, has one of the lowest owner-occupied rates in the region.  
• However, Geary County has an even lower rate of owner-occupied housing. Home of Fort Riley, many families rely on a mix of rental units.  
• Like many rural counties across the state, Jefferson and Wabaunsee have high owner-occupancy. For new residents to these counties, few rental options often push them to living in adjoining counties. 
• Compared to 2010, only two counties saw an increase in the share of owner-occupied housing. In other words, the share of renter-occupied housing. increased in the majority of counties. 
• The increase in proportion of renters illustrates a combination of changing preferences, difficulty of affording homeownership, and limited supply of ownership options, among other localized factors.

Percent Owner-Occupied Households - 2019

A 5% to 6% vacancy rate is a good rate for a community. At this rate housing options exist for those looking to move to an area or change housing type. However, the vacancy rate does not always tell the full story when the vacant units are in poor condition they may not be meeting community needs. The vacancy rates for the Northeast region are illustrated to the right and include all units in each county. Individual rates vary within the cities in each county. 

• High vacancies reported in the 2020 Census are similar to other parts of the state. 
• Counties like Riley and Geary may show higher vacancy depending on when counts were gathered and student/military transitions. Other counties with high vacancy rates like Washington, Brown, and Wabaunsee may be reflective of the housing condition.

Undervaluation in rural markets can also impact the ability or interest in reinvesting resulting in units sitting empty. 

• While Leavenworth did see a large percentage growth of vacancies in 2010 versus 2020, the 2020 vacancy rate is still relatively low in the region at 7.4%. 
• Some discussions with more rural counties suggest that high vacancy rates may be partly related to lack of interest or cost of fixing up and selling or renting older properties that are not occupied.
• It will be important for counties to understand the local causes of vacancy rates above 10% and then formulate appropriate strategies.

Change in Vacancy – Northeast region vs Kansas

The age and condition of housing is often reflected in the costs of housing. This page shows the relation of housing age to home value for owner-occupied units. 

In the Northeast region, similar to others in the state, homes in more rural counties are older, and reflect lower building activity in recent decades. 

Areas with older housing stock also tend to have lower home values and a higher percentage of the stock as single-family detached units.  

This matches the challenges heard in the public input regarding new homes in rural areas appraising below cost of construction. 

Housing Stock % Single Family Detached Households - 2019

Median Year Built of Housing and Median House Value by County

• Ratings above average generally represent recently built units. 
• The northeast part of the region, particularly, Jackson, Nemaha, Brown, and Doniphan counties has the highest percentage of housing stock at average or below condition. Each are above 90%. This is one indication of low new construction activity. 
• Counties like Washington and Morris have higher vacancy rates which may correlate directly to the higher percentage of housing in poor condition and vacancy rates.
• Riley County has the highest percentage of housing stock rated above average. New construction and growth in Manhattan attributes to the higher condition rating. 
• Many counties have more than 10% of the housing stock in poor condition or below. These are areas where visible dilapidation may be more present and incomes grew modestly since 2010, making repairs more difficult for homeowners to afford.   
• While the median age of homes in Pottawatomie County is the most recent in the region (1981), the condition of homes falls in the middle related to other counties. This may indicate significant differences in condition throughout the county as new builds drive up the median age but older homes are not repaired at the same rate. 

One metric to evaluate whether a home is affordable to a home buyer is to compare their household income to the value of the home. This metric can be adapted to evaluate the affordability of housing markets in different counties.

An affordable, self-sustaining housing market with adequate value and revenues to support market-rate new construction, typically exhibits a value to income ratio between 2.0 to 3.0. Ratios above 3.0 present significant affordability issues while ratios below 2.0 are significantly undervalued relative to income. 

• Under the value to income metric, many counties in the Northeast region are considered undervalued. These are again, those more rural and older existing housing stock. 
• Riley County has a ratio approaching 4.0, understandable because of the student population driving down the county median income. 

Another important metric in housing affordability is what the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development defines as “families who pay more than 30 percent of their income for housing are considered cost burdened and may have difficulty affording necessities such as food, clothing, transportation, and medical care.” The map above shows the percent of owners who spend more than 30 percent of their income on housing.

• Only three counties saw the percent of cost burdened owners increase from 2010 to 2019.
• Those burdened by their home costs are less financially resilient to other changes that may occur including job loss, rising fuel costs, and medical expenses.

Value to Income Ratio - 2019

A metric to measure the affordability of rentals is to compare gross rent and rental household incomes, in addition to the HUD defined cost burden status of paying more than 30 percent of income on housing.

• More counties experienced an increase percent of cost burdened renters from 2010-2019 than owners that were cost burdened. 
• Gross rent tends to be lower in more rural counties, and this often correlates with a lower percentage of cost burdened renters. However, as noted previously, these units may be in poor condition and not desirable for many households. 
• While estimated gross rents are below the rent at 30 percent of median rental incomes in many counties, this does not mean the units available match renter needs. Lower rent units might be in poorer condition, have a limited number of bedrooms, or are missing other accommodations needed by families or seniors.

Renter Conditions - 2019

Of the 494 respondents living in the Northeast region:

• The age of survey respondents skewed older with 22% over 65 years old. 

• Nearly 90% of survey respondents are white. 

• Hispanic or Latino respondents represent 4% of respondents. 

• Most are homeowners (73%). Of those that rent, 59% do so by necessity.  

• When asked if they were interested in moving, 44% noted they are happy with where they live. Of those indicating they would consider moving, the most (19%) said to another community for quality of life reasons. 

• The largest share of respondents’ household income was between $50,000 and $74,999.

Respondents from Northeast Kansas feel that seniors would be most interested in an owner-occupied or apartment arrangement with some services available and/or low maintenance. Note that 22% of respondents were over 65 years old.

What type of housing do you believe area seniors and the elderly are most interested in?

Which types of housing solutions would you support to reduce the cost of housing in your county (select all that apply)?

Which types of housing solutions would you support to reduce the cost of housing in your county (select all that apply)?

Respondents and stakeholder discussions showed support for policy directed at the existing housing stock. When questioned further, respondents favored programs targeted at:

• Housing rehabilitation
• Help becoming homeowners
• Developer/builder backed incentives for development

Most respondents would be supportive of funding for housing rehab program. Slightly less would be supportive of funding to remove dilapidated housing, but still a majority are supportive. 

Does your city or county need increased or continued use of city/public funding for housing rehabilitation or renovations?

Using data from the Kansas Department of Labor, the Census, and commuting patterns help demonstrate housing demand for the region through the next several years. Factors included in the forecast:

• Regional employment projections. A portion of new jobs in the coming year can and will be filled by people who live in each region.

• Job openings from retirements. A portion of residents in the region will retire in the coming years. Jobs that new retirees previously occupied will open for new employees, but a housing unit will not. 

• Natural population changes. The population is aging in most regions and will decline over time without an in-migration of residents or significant change in birth rates. Projections for the Northeast region show natural growth.

• Replacement need. A portion of homes will require demolition in the coming years. Other houses will be lost from accidents such as fires or neglect across each region. 

• Other assumptions. The full methodology with population forecasts and housing price points are included in the appendix of this housing assessment.

The Northeast Region has some of the greatest age diversity in the state. Large number of students and military personnel result in a net gain in young adults for several counties. At the same time surrounding rural counties have a growing number of households over the age of 55. This creates a demand for a diverse housing stock that goes beyond the traditional single-family home for households raising children.

The region’s age diversity and more transient population drive a higher percentage of rentals. This demand has also supported the construction of new rental housing, especially in Geary and Riley Counties. New rentals require higher rental rates, resulting in some of the highest rental rates in the region. 

Housing demand is being driven by: 

• A large number of unfilled jobs, the result of business growth and more individuals moving into their retirement years. 

• Households that are retiring and needing alternative housing options. 

• The need to replace older housing. 

• Limited supply of quality for sale options.