First Quarter 2024 Drought Climate Summary

Banner image: Marquette, Iowa, on March 15, 2024. Iowa was one of eight states that posted the warmest winter on record, according to  NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information  data.  Wikideas1 , CC0, via Wikimedia Commons

Drought classifications are based on the U.S. Drought Monitor. Details on the extent and severity of drought are online:  droughtmonitor.unl.edu .

The outlook integrates existing conditions with forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center:  www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov .

The first quarter of 2024 saw vast improvements in parts of the Southeast. From Jan. 2 to March 26, five-category improvements occurred from Louisiana northeast into central Tennessee. One- to three-category improvements were also seen across the southern Plains, central Midwest, Southwest and parts of the Pacific Northwest.

One- to three-category degradations occurred from northern Idaho eastward through Montana, northern Wyoming, and into the northern Plains and Midwest. There were also degradations in the Pacific Northwest, northwest Nevada, southwestern Texas and areas along the Kansas-Oklahoma border.

January and March brought the most improvements, whereas February saw more degradations in the north and Midwest. February was the third-warmest on record and completed the record warmest meteorologic winter (December-February) according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration  National Center for Environmental Information . Temperatures were above average across large areas of the contiguous U.S.

 North Dakota ,  Minnesota ,  Iowa ,  Wisconsin ,  Michigan ,  New York ,  Vermont  and  New Hampshire  each had winters that ranked warmest on record, while an additional 26 states ranked among their top-10 warmest winters on record.

From Jan. 2 to March 26, 2024, coverage of all dryness categories decreased across the U.S. and Puerto Rico.

• Abnormal dryness or worse decreased from 45.9 to 35.2%.
• Moderate drought or worse decreased from 27.6 to 15.2%.
• Severe drought or worse decreased from 13.9 to 4.8%.
• Extreme drought or worse decreased from 5.3 to 1.0%.
• Exceptional drought or worse decreased from 1.02 to 0.12%.

In January, precipitation in the northwest — from northern California to Washington and from the Great Plains eastward — was well above normal. West-central and southwest Oregon and southeast Texas had precipitation upwards of 8 inches above normal. The greatest amounts of precipitation fell at the beginning and end of January.

The beginning of January saw storms across much of the eastern lower 48 states (Jan. 6-7) followed by a winter storm (Jan. 9-10). These storms brought heavy rains of 2 inches or more in many areas across the lower Mississippi and the Deep South, along with heavy snowfall across the Central Plains and Midwest. The last week of January saw heavy precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, South, Southeast and Midwest. Some areas of east Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi recorded over 8 inches of rain from Jan. 23-30. Unfortunately, snowpack remains below normal across the Southwest and northern Rockies.

For most of the contiguous U.S. (CONUS), precipitation was within 3 inches above and below normal in February. Most of the areas from the eastern Plains to the Atlantic Coast saw below-normal conditions, except the Florida Peninsula; central Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia; and along the Appalachian Mountain range. North Dakota through Texas saw a mixture of above- and below-normal precipitation ranging from 1 to 3 inches. The western half of the CONUS saw a general pattern for above-normal precipitation, with the California coast experiencing 6 to 12 inches above normal. The Pacific Northwest missed out on this precipitation, ranging from 1 to 6 inches below normal.

Areas along the Atlantic Coast from South Carolina northward received above-normal precipitation during March. Pockets of above-normal precipitation also occurred in the western U.S., especially along the Arizona-New Mexico border, parts of the Rocky Mountains in central Colorado, the Sierra Nevada, southeast Idaho and parts of Utah. Drier-than-normal weather covered parts of the lower Ohio River Valley—especially western Kentucky, northern Oklahoma, southwest and south-central Kansas, the Black Hills in South Dakota, east-central Wyoming, portions of west-central and northwest Minnesota, and adjacent North Dakota and northwest Washington.

January saw a large contrast of above- and below-normal temperatures across the U.S. Temperatures were well above normal in the first and last 10 days of January, according to the  National Weather Service . While the average temperature was above normal for the U.S., a large polar air mass from Canada brought extremely cold temperatures Jan. 12-16 in the Pacific Northwest and from Montana south through the Plains into Arkansas and Texas. These areas saw temperatures of 8 to 10 degrees below average. Six consecutive days (Jan. 11-16) had daily cold records ( Forbes ). Additionally, 15 temperature records were broken across central and southeast Kansas, according to the  National Weather Service . In much of the West, Midwest, and Northeast, and along the Atlantic Coast, temperatures were 2 to 6 degrees above normal. Northeast Utah, northern Minnesota and Wisconsin, and northern New York and Vermont experienced the warmest temperatures: up to 10 degrees above normal.

February saw record-breaking above-normal temperatures across the country—except in southern California and Florida—with the Midwest experiencing temperatures of 15 degrees or more above normal. There were over 130 record highs from central Texas north to the Great Lakes region. February’s above-normal temperatures were influenced by El Niño, which typically brings warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the northern and central U.S. in the winter.  February ended the warmest meteorological winter (November through February) in the 125-year record.

Many parts of the Midwest and Northeast regions were warmer than normal in March, with temperature anomalies mostly ranging from 4 to 8 degrees above normal. A few parts of the western U.S. were cooler than normal, including eastern Montana and adjacent western North Dakota, southern Idaho, and portions of southern California and Arizona. Temperatures in these areas were mostly 2 to 6 degrees below normal for March. In the eastern Great Plains, temperatures were mostly either near normal or 2 to 4 degrees warmer than normal. The western Great Plains primarily saw near-normal temperatures, with a few locations coming in either 2 to 4 degrees warmer than normal or 2 to 4 degrees cooler than normal.

According to the Climate Prediction Center’s U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, April 1–June 20, large areas of the country will remain drought-free. Areas currently in drought in the High Plains, western Midwest, Arizona, and along the Wyoming-Montana border will see drought improvements and some areas of removal. The small areas of drought in Puerto Rico are likely to dissipate. In the north — from northern Idaho to the Upper Peninsula (UP) of Michigan — drought is expected to persist, with drought developing in northern Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota and Michigan’s UP. Much of New Mexico and southwestern Texas will see drought persist and expand eastward from New Mexico. Drought is expected to persist across Hawaii and expand onto all islands.