Municipal Elections in Quebec:

Municipal governments are the closest level of government to the everyday individual. Yet, their importance is often overlooked; this is especially true for elections.

In this report, I explore rates of incumbent re-election, elections won by acclamation and the impact of political parties on the democratic process. I also use ArcGIS software to provide a visualization of the 2017 mayoral elections in Quebec. Over the course of my analysis, I found that the rates of incumbent re-election and elections won by acclamation were extremely high. However, I also found that these rates are lower in urban centres that have political parties. After examining the role of political parties within municipal elections, I conclude that political parties benefit the democratic process. Political parties help individuals challenge incumbents by providing an organizational structure to engage volunteers, receive donations, and mobilize supporters. Finally, I support this argument by referencing other work done in the field of urban and local governance.

Having political parties at the municipal level will not just result in more active debates about specific policies or services. Having political parties at the municipal level will mean that officials will have to truly imagine the future of cities and municipalities and the role that they will play within that future.

Incumbent: The candidate that held the position prior to the election.

Winner by Acclamation: The candidate was not challenged and therefore won the election by default.

For my report, I analyzed electoral data collected by the Canadian Municipal Election Study. I also used ArcGIS software to create an interactive map so that academics, policymakers, and local representatives can better understand rates of incumbent re-election and acclamation across various municipalities within Quebec. Overall, my research compares the electoral results for the more rural areas to the Montreal area.

To make my map, I first had to find the census subdivision (CSD) code for each municipality to "join" the information to a CSD boundary file. After that, I created a dashboard so that readers could easily move between the different variables that I wanted them to explore.

This map contains four layers, a municipality selector and pop-ups:

• The bottom layer titled "Data Points," contains all of the individual data points for the electoral results included in my research;
• The layer above is titled "Electoral Results 2017." It contains the electoral data merged with a census boundary file to make it easier to explore the different variables. Having this layer on while exploring "Incumbent" and "Acclamation" allows you to learn more about the specific electoral races by clicking on a boundary;
• The layer above is titled "Incumbent," this layer makes all of the electoral races with an incumbent re-elected purple. The other electoral races are red.
• The top layer is titled "Acclaimed," this layer shows all of the electoral races where the candidate won by acclamation in blue;
• The "Municipality Selector" allows you to search for a specific municipality of interest;
• The pop-ups appear when you click on a specific municipality. The pop-ups include the CSD code, the race identification, the name of the municipality, the candidate's name, the candidate's political party, votes received, total votes, the election year, the position, the number of people elected and the source. The pop-ups also include whether the candidate was an incumbent, elected and if the election was won by acclamation. For these three variables, 1 = yes and 0=no.

For my graphs that compare per cent of incumbents re-elected and elections won by acclamation to municipal population size, I first grouped the municipalities by similar population. For each graph, I had the Montreal area as its own group because the area is an outlier in terms of population size, presence of political parties and civic involvement at the local level. Grouping Montreal alone ensures that other municipalities are not overlooked, and it also allows me to easily compare factors that contribute to the variation in rates across population size. It is important to note that the Montreal group contains the city-wide mayoral election and the mayoral elections for the various boroughs. 

For my graphs that analyze elections won by acclamation, I first determined how many elections occurred in each group or year. I then found how many elections were won by acclamation within those groups or years. To find the per cent of the elections won by acclamation, I divided the number of elections won by acclamation by the total number of elections.

For my graph that analyzes incumbent re-election, I first filtered my data to make only incumbent candidates available. I then grouped the data by municipal population size. To find the per cent of incumbents re-elected, I divided the number of incumbents re-elected by the total number of incumbents running for re-election.

After analyzing the 2017 electoral data for the rural areas in comparison to the Montreal area, I found that of the 1001 mayoral elections included within my research:

• Number of elections acclaimed: 512 
• Per cent of elections won by acclamation: 51.15%  
• Per cent of elections won by the incumbent: 61.04% 
• Of the 737 incumbents that ran for re-election, 611 were re-elected (82.90%)

To ensure that these results were consistent and not just outliers, I compared the 2017 election results to the 2013, 2009, and 2005 municipal election results (Lucas, et al).

My results show that the per cent of municipal elections won by acclamation is consistently high (Breux and Couture 70).

To better understand the factors contributing to acclamation and incumbent re-election rates, I broke down the data into municipal population size. (See Methods for how I created the groups and how I determined the per cent of incumbents re-elected and the per cent of elections won by acclamation.)

My results show that as the municipal population size goes up, incumbent re-election and acclamation rates go down.

One factor that contributes to this is the presence of political parties.

Political parties are mostly concentrated in the urban centres and similar to political parties at the federal and provincial level, political parties at the municipal level are effective organizational structures that champion candidates by organizing volunteers, earning donations and mobilizing supporters.

Some of the main political parties within Montreal include Projet Montréal, Ensemble Montréal (Together Montreal), Vrai changement pour Montréal (Real change for Montreal), Coalition Montréal, and Mouvement Montreal.

These political parties mobilize supporters and increase civic participation by creating outreach programs for younger voters. Traditionally, younger voters do not turn out to vote as much as old generations. Therefore, the initiatives driven by political parties to increase youth turnout are beneficial to the democratic process.

In addition, the political parties in Montreal vet the candidates that run under their party banner. This is beneficial to the democratic process because it ensures that quality candidates are running.

Finally, the political parties within Montreal are effective at raising donations. This is important because additional funding means that newer candidates have a better chance at challenging incumbents, who already have an advantage.

Overall, my argument that political parties are an important factor in acclamation and incumbent re-election rates is consistent with other arguments made by political scientists in the urban and local governance field.

Professor Jack Lucas analyzed incumbency and political parties at the municipal level across Western Canada and found:

"In the presence of party affiliations and partisan electoral contestation, the role of incumbency as an informational cue is likely to be weakened as a result of the competing party affiliation cue. And the presence of political parties with an incentive to run a full slate of high-quality candidates makes it less likely that an incumbent candidate will be able to scare off all high-quality challengers" (Lucas 378).

In addition, Sandra Breux, and Jérôme Couture discovered a correlation between an incumbent mayor's decision to change the property tax rate, the presence of political parties and the likelihood of them being re-elected. The graph below demonstrates that it is harder for incumbent mayors to get re-elected when political parties are present, especially if the mayor has increased property taxes (Breux and Couture 64).

Furthermore, Erin Tolley and Mireille Paquet have argued that the election of Valérie Plante as Mayor of Montreal can be attributed to Project Montreal's political strategy to fight against negative stereotypes about women’s unsuitability for positions of leadership (Tolley and Paquet 40).

Finally, Alexandre Couture Gagnon, Filip Palda and Katarzyna Sepielak discovered that although the presence of political parties at the municipal level did not have a large impact on the percentage of votes received by men and women candidates, candidates affiliated with a political party did obtain more votes than candidates who ran as independents (Couture Gagnon, Palda and Sepielak 497).

Overall, these high rates of incumbent re-election and elections won by acclamation should concern you. When an election is won by acclamation, important debates about specific policies and services are not happening. It also means local officials are not having conversations about the future of municipalities and cities.

However, political parties can change this for the better. As demonstrated above, political parties effectively increase civic participation, develop a clear platform, and help new candidates challenge incumbents. Overall, these factors improve the democratic process.

Cities and municipalities are the levels of government closest to the people, so shouldn't they represent the needs and wants of their constituents? I think so, and I think the best way to achieve this is through political parties.

For future research, I suggest exploring incumbent re-election rates and elections won by acclamation for city council positions. I would also suggest exploring if the presence of political parties impacts incumbent re-election and acclamation rates for city council positions.

Breux, Sandra, and Jérôme Couture. “Accountability without Parties? Political Business Cycle and the Re-Election of Incumbents.” Accountability and Responsiveness at the Municipal Level: Views from Canada, edited by Sandra Breux and Jérôme Couture, McGill-Queen's University Press, 2018, pp. 49–75. 

Couture Gagnon, Alexandre, et al. “Political Parties and Women's Success in Municipal Elections in 2005 in Montérégie and Montréal (QUÉBEC, Canada).” American Review of Canadian Studies, vol. 49, no. 4, 2019, pp. 497–510., doi:10.1080/02722011.2019.1714678. 

Lucas, Jack, et al. “Canadian Municipal Elections Database.” dataverse.scholarsportal.info/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.5683/SP2/4MZJPQ. Scholars Portal Dataverse, 26 Oct. 2020. 

Lucas, Jack. “The Size and Sources of Municipal Incumbency Advantage in Canada.” Urban Affairs Review, vol. 57, no. 2, 2021, pp. 373–401., doi:10.1177/1078087419879234. 

Tolley, Erin, and Mireille Paquet. “Gender, Municipal Party Politics, and Montreal’s First Woman Mayor .” Canadian Journal of Urban Research, vol. 30, no. 1, 2021, cjur.uwinnipeg.ca/index.php/cjur/article/view/323. 

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