Why the Red Sea attacks threaten to disrupt global trade
Houthi rebels in Yemen have launched a wave of attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea. Consumers may bear the consequences.
By Cooper Thomas
Shipping lanes are the highways of the high seas, enabling the safe and efficient transport of essential goods and materials to the farthest reaches of the planet.
Few maritime trade routes are more economically important than the passage through the Red Sea. By linking the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, the Red Sea provides the quickest route from manufacturing hubs in East Asia to markets in Europe.
But the Red Sea is bounded by two natural chokepoints: the Suez Canal in the north, and the Bab-el-Mandeb to the south.
Disruptions to the flow of traffic in either location can produce prolonged delays. For example, when the container ship Ever Given ran aground in the Suez Canal in 2021, traffic was blocked in both directions for six days.
The Bab-el-Mandeb, which separates the Horn of Africa from Yemen by a distance of roughly 14 nautical miles, is particularly precarious. Vessels must pass within close distance of the western coast of Yemen, a region currently under the control of Houthi rebels.
For a decade, this Shia political and military movement has waged a devastating civil war against the UN-recognized government of Yemen. Equipped with Iranian weapons and training, the Houthis have proven themselves to be a resilient fighting force. The civil war in Yemen has created a calamitous humanitarian disaster with grave consequences for the local population.
While Houthi forces have endured numerous airstrikes from Western-backed forces over the past decade, but they have generally avoided direct attacks on merchant vessels passing through the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.
But following the Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, and Israel's retaliatory operations in Gaza, Houthi forces began staging attacks on merchant and military vessels transiting the Bab-el-Mandar, employing long-range missiles, drones, and small boats. Houthi leaders have stated that these attacks represent an expression of solidarity with Palestine.
Most Houthi attacks have failed to reach their targets — much less inflict serious damage — thanks in large part to the advanced air defenses carried by American, British, and European warships now operating in the region.
But Western defense systems aren't entirely impervious, and several strikes have managed to slip through the cracks. On March 6, 2024, a Houthi anti-ship missile struck the cargo ship True Confidence, killing three sailors and forcing the remaining crew to abandon ship.
As a result of these attacks, shipping insurance rates have spiked . Facing costly rate increases, shipping companies have sought out safer — and cheaper — alternatives to the Red Sea route.
But there are few good alternatives. The most viable option is to divert ships around the southern tip of Africa — a detour that adds more than 3,000 nautical miles and 10 days to the trip. Hundreds of cargo ships have been rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, leading to rising consumer goods prices and fluctuations in global commodity markets.
While the Houthi forces in Yemen have failed to inflict serious material damage on commercial ships, they have succeeded in disrupting global trade. And until maritime traffic through the Red Sea is restored to pre-October levels, consumers are likely to bear the brunt of the costs.