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Wellington Regional Land Transport Plan 2021: 2024 Mid-Term Review

Introduction

The Wellington Regional Land Transport Plan (RLTP) sets the direction for the Wellington Region’s transport network for the next 10–30 years. The RLTP describes our long-term vision, identifies regional priorities and sets out the transport projects we intend to invest in over the next six years.

The current RLTP was adopted in 2021, and reviewed this year - at the three-year mark. A lot changed after RLTP 2021 was developed. As part of the review we looked at key areas of change and what they mean for the RLTP’s strategic framework and the 2024-27 regional programme of activities.

Interested in finding out more about the RLTP or the work we did as part of the mid-term review?

  • The 2024 RLTP Mid Term Review can be found  here 
  • You can find RLTP 2021  here .
  • For more information about the findings of the RLTP mid-term review, have a look  here .
  • To stay up to date with how we are tracking toward achieving the RLTP’s targets and ambitions, have a look at the latest  Annual Monitoring Report  on RLTP 2021.

This website summarises our analysis related to the following key areas of change: 

  • Population and economy
  • Resilience and climate change 
  • Safety 
  • Strategic access 
  • Travel choice 

It contains information and interactive maps illustrating some of the changes in different parts of our region. This information supports the content of the higher-level review document.


Population and economy

Population, urban development and the economy shape how our transport system functions and develops by driving travel demand. The transport system also plays a part in how people choose to travel and how businesses move goods around. Transport, people, urban design and the economy all influence each other.  

Population

Our region’s population has continued to grow over the last five years. Approximately 19,000 more people live in the Wellington region in 2023 than in 2018.

*estimated figures based on projections

This growth has not been distributed evenly across the region. The Wairarapa experienced the highest growth rate (around 10% over five years). Wellington City experienced the lowest percentage growth rate (less than 1% over 5 years), while actual growth was highest in Lower Hutt (which grew by about 4,500 people over 5 years).

Looking ahead

Whilst subject to uncertainty, the region’s population is forecast to continue growing at a rate similar to that seen over the past 20 years. The graphics below show the projected mid-range (50th percentile) growth rates for the region's districts.

Sense Partners Population Projections -  Open in full screen 

To reflect this level of uncertainty, the revised population forecasts used for this RLTP 2021 mid-term review include a broader range from low to high growth projections than previously used. Using this broader range, the region’s population could increase by between 52,000 in a low-growth projection and 238,000 in a high-growth projection over the next 20 years.

Sense Partners Population Projections -  Open in full screen  

Figure: Wellington region population projections to 2048 (for different percentiles 1 )

Source: Wellington Transport Analytics Unit, based on Sense Partners data.

 Sense Partners runs simulations to calculate forecasts for different combinations of assumptions about population, employment, and migration. The simulations represent possible future populations, the ranges of which are divided into percentiles. Eg, a value for the 25th percentile means that for 25% of the simulations, the projected population is below this value and 75% are above the value.  

While also subject to uncertainty, it is unlikely that this growth will be distributed evenly across the region.  

Figure: Population growth estimates 2022-2048 (Sense Partners)

2022-2048 forecast growth rate (Sense Partners, 50th percentile). Figures are relative to 2018 base year.

Projected Population Growth 2023 - 2048 (absolute numbers)


This map shows projected population growth between 2023 - 2048 in absolute numbers (Sense Partners' 50th percentile growth projection).

While Wellington City and Lower Hutt have relatively lower forecast growth rates (in percentage of the current population), they could still jointly see an additional 91,000 residents between 2023 and 2048

Projected Population Growth 2023 - 2048 (percent)

This map shows populated areas that are predicted to experience growth rates higher than the regional average (27%) between 2023 - 2048.

Looking at the projected growth in percentage of the current population, the highest growth rates are expected for the Wairarapa and the Kāpiti Coast.  

Both the Wairarapa and Kāpiti Coast could each expect almost 20,000 more people by 2048.  

This will affect the demand for transport, particularly for more rural parts of the region.

Urban Development

The decisions people make about where they live, work, study and socialise, whether they work from home and how they travel to activities, significantly impact our transport system and services.  

For example, significant population growth in the Wairarapa and within the Kāpiti Coast will require more rail capacity to provide commuters and other travellers with an attractive alternative option for travelling to Wellington CBD. Similarly, the significant growth expected within Wellington’s CBD will require better infrastructure for active transport modes and a high-quality mass rapid transit system.  

At the same time, transport planning can also impact housing development. The councils in the Wellington region, together with Horowhenua District Council, central government and mana whenua partners, have developed a  Future Development Strategy . This Strategy sets out how the region will plan for the housing and growth expected in the next 30 years. It shows how the region will accommodate its growing population and what development and infrastructure is needed to create well-functioning urban environments in our region.

Economy

New Zealand’s economy is facing multiple challenges, including rapid technological change and the transition towards a low emissions economy. These are contributing to an increasingly uncertain economic outlook.

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth is often used as a broad measure of how the economy is doing. It measures growth in the total value of goods and services produced in a country or region during a specific period. In the Wellington region, GDP growth came almost to a standstill in 2021 but GDP has increased by about 5.5% in 2022.

For the near future, the forecast for economic performance indicators is mixed on a national level. GDP growth is expected to slow down short- to medium-term, with a gradual recovery.


Resilience and climate change

Since 2021 we have seen an increase in severe weather events. Summer 2023 saw record breaking storms, with unprecedented amounts of rainfall and destruction. It was an example of both climate variability (through La Niña) and climate change (through higher temperatures and increased humidity from global warming). A 2017 Greater Wellington report already described climate changes which may occur over the coming century in the Wellington region.

Key extracts from this report alongside interactive maps can be found  here .

Changes to climatic extremes (e.g. heatwaves, extreme rainfall and drought) may have more significant impact on people, economies and the natural environment than changes to the average climatic conditions.

Resilience

For transport, the consequences of extreme weather events included slips and flooding, which caused road and rail line closures, leading to the cancellation of public transport services and delays for all road users. This impacts our ability to move people and goods around the region, as well as between the North and South Islands.

Funding for resilience improvement projects has been an issue. The RLTP 2021-24’s regional programme included projects from the Wellington Region Resilience Programme which have not all received funding through the National Land Transport Programme 2021-24. Some of the projects will now be considered for the 2024-27 period. While current rail network improvement programmes include resilience components cost pressures mean not all the components of these programmes will be delivered and additional funding needs to be secured. There is however a small amount of funding available through a dedicated resilience resource.

These events have further highlighted the lack of resilience of our transport network, which is already impacted by topographical challenges and a high earthquake risk.

We have made some progress over the last few years to improve the resilience of our transport network. The opening of Transmission Gully in March 2022 has improved the resilience of the Western corridor. Other improvements are being worked on or are in the pipeline, including slope stability and work on the region’s railway tracks.


Vulnerability of the regional roading network

Many resilience issues presented in RLTP 2021 still remain. For example:

  • There are only two main north-south transport corridors. 
  • The region has limited east-west linkages. 
  • The regional road and rail corridors lie closely beside each other.
  • Key transport corridors cross major fault lines and are at risk from earthquake, tsunami, flooding and sea-level rise at various points.

The map demonstrates the region’s corridors from a ‘criticality’ perspective. New Zealand Transport Agency identifies where parts of the transport corridor play a greater role in providing network resilience. This is considered from a social perspective, like providing access to strategic destinations such as hospitals, if there is any redundancy, such as another road to use instead, and how long it is estimated to take to repair.

This ‘criticality’ ranking is linked to investment, with a higher criticality score leading to greater investment in the corridor in recognition of its critical resilience function. At the same time, if a corridor is found to be less critical, it may receive less investment from a resilience point of view.

The term resilience can be defined as:

the capacity of our critical infrastructures to absorb a shock, recover from disruptions, adapt to changing conditions, and retain essentially the same level of function as before.

Resilience can relate to a wide range of aspects, including:

  • major events like earthquakes and severe weather events
  • longer-term climate change related impacts (like sea level rise and how we adapt to it)
  • the ability of our region’s transport network to cope with day-to-day ‘incidents’ such as road traffic crashes
  • how susceptible our transport system is and how we prepare for these different events.

Transport network resilience is not only about big, one-off events. Throughout the year, there can be multiple smaller and shorter events. For example, unplanned closures of a state highway section, combined with a lack of alternative routes, can lead to longer travel times and more unpredictable journeys.

Unplanned state highways road closures have increased consistently over the last 10 years. The duration of closures has been variable from year to year but shows no overall improvement. Interim data for July and August 2022 shows an increase in long-duration road closures, following unusually wet weather in that period.

Figure: Duration and frequency of unplanned road closures on state highways

Source: Wellington Transport Analytics Unit: Transport insights to inform RLTP 2024-2027 mid-term review, 2023, p. 39

Funding for resilience improvement projects has been an issue. The RLTP 2021-24’s regional programme included projects from the Wellington Region Resilience Programme which have not all received funding through the National Land Transport Programme 2021-24. Some of the projects will now be considered for the 2024-27 period. While current rail network improvement programmes include resilience components cost pressures mean not all the components of these programmes will be delivered and additional funding needs to be secured. There is however a small amount of funding available through a dedicated resilience resource.

In the wake of Cyclone Gabrielle in February 2023, the draft GPS 2024 (released in early 2024) reflects the need to rebuild and make the transport system more resilient. It also includes maintaining and operating our existing transport system (roads and public transport services) as a priority.

Climate Change

Climate change further increases the existing vulnerability of our transport network.

Climate change is the biggest environmental challenge we are facing. It will affect everyone, and we need to address it on a local, regional, national and international level. There is increasing evidence that climate change is happening faster than previously anticipated. The  2023 IPCC Synthesis report  warns that we are not on track to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius or even 2 degrees Celsius. It states that emissions should be decreasing by now and will need to be cut by almost half by 2030, if warming is to be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius. This requires deep, rapid and sustained greenhouse gas emissions reductions in all sectors. 

From a transport perspective, our climate change response has two parts:

  • Mitigation: reducing transport-generated CO 2  emissions and
  • Adaptation: managing the risks that climate related hazards pose to our transport network

Both have an important role to play in preparing us for the future.

RLTP 2021 acknowledged the importance of climate change and its impact on our transport network. Transport is the second biggest contributor of CO 2  emissions in the Wellington region (after agriculture) and has an important role to play in emission reduction. To reflect this, RLTP 2021 included an ambitious 10-year headline target:

After a period of continued growth, our region’s CO 2  emissions have been more volatile since the start of COVID-19, with annual increases and decreases between about 8% and 10%. The trendline over the last 5 years shows a slight downward trend of overall CO 2  emissions.

Many factors impact how much transport-related CO 2  emissions we generate. Examples are whether we work from home or travel to our workplace and what transport mode we use. The future development of these factors is somewhat uncertain.

While our transport-related CO 2  emissions have been trending downwards since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, it is unclear if this is the start of an ongoing trend or a result of temporary, COVID-19-related behaviour changes. Even if a more sustained downward trend continues, it would not be sufficient to achieve the Wellington RLTP’s overall CO 2  emission target by 2030. Emissions will need to decrease more significantly, particularly per person to compensate for the forecast population growth.

Figure: Regional CO 2  emissions generated from transport, absolute and per capita (year to 30 June)

Source: Wellington Transport Analytics Unit: Transport insights to inform RLTP 2024-2027 mid-term review, 2023, p. 36 

One of the factors that contribute to how much CO 2  is released into the atmosphere is how much we travel by car and other motorised vehicles, and how much of this travel takes place in vehicles that are powered by internal combustion engines versus hybrid or electric vehicles. 

More than 50% of all new vehicles registered in our region are now electric or hybrid, compared with 6% five years earlier. However, the average age of our region’s vehicle fleet of almost 14 years old indicates it may take a long time before electric and hybrid vehicles form the majority of our light vehicle fleet.

Figure: New vehicle registrations for cars or vans in the Wellington region, by power type

Source: Ministry of Transport, July 2023

Traffic volumes decreased during the 2021/22 financial year, due to COVID-19 restrictions during that period. Since then, volumes have increased, which could lead to a rebound in vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) and overall CO 2  emissions.

Our region’s commitment to reduce transport emissions is set out in the Wellington Transport Emissions Reduction Pathway (WTERP) endorsed by the Wellington Regional Transport Committee in March 2024. Informed by evidence, transport modelling, and focus groups with technical experts, the WTERP sets out a pathway of interventions to reduce transport emissions in the Wellington region to the RLTP target. In addition to including activities that can be undertaken by local councils, the WTERP also highlights areas where a change at central government level would be required to enable regional changes to happen.

In our region, about 70% of trips are shorter than 10 km. These trips contribute 25-30% of VKT. Active modes play a role as an alternative to car usage particularly for shorter distances. But, with trips of 10 km or more contributing about 70% of VKT, public transport is our biggest lever to reduce VKT, as it is the most viable option for longer trips. Public transport plays a critical role in moving large numbers of people within the region, and to and from Wellington City, the region’s main centre of employment.  


Safety

Road safety is important for everyone. We all want our whānau to arrive safely at the end of every journey. Road safety is an investment priority of RLTP 2021:

There is some good news in our region’s latest road safety statistics: In the last three years, fewer people have been killed or seriously injured on our roads than in the 3 years before.

The decrease may have been driven in part by reduced travel relating to COVID-19. But that was not the only factor, as the decrease in death and serious injuries was larger than the reduction in vehicle kilometres travelled. Other factors that may also have contributed to the decrease include more appropriate speed limits, improved road user behaviour, better vehicle safety and road environment improvements.

There is still more work to do: In the year to the end of July 2022, 188 people were killed or seriously injured on our roads. And whilst death and serious injuries have declined in 2019-2022 (compared to a high in 2018), they are still higher than pre-2017.

Figure: Road deaths and serious injuries

Source: Wellington Regional Land Transport Plan – Annual Monitoring Report 2022, p. 8

RLTP 2021 included an ambitious 10-year headline target for road safety:

This 40% reduction between 2020 and 2030 is in line with central government ambitions. Translated to an absolute number, this equals dropping the 5-year rolling average below 122 deaths and serious injuries by 2030.

As the graph above shows, the current 5-year rolling average of deaths and serious injuries is above 200. This shows the size of the challenge we are facing: to achieve our target, the average number of deaths and serious injuries per year will need to be 122 or lower over the 2026-2030 period. The earlier we can achieve a reduction in deaths and serious injuries, the closer we will get towards achieving the target.  

More investment in safety interventions will be needed if we want to see a significant reduction in deaths and serious injuries on our transport network and work towards this ambitious target.

Every crash causing injury is examined to find causes for the crash. In the Wellington region, these factors are different for crashes on urban roads compared to state highways.   

Nearly two thirds of these crashes happen in cities and towns on urban roads, and one third on state highways.  

Figure: Road deaths and serious injuries, by territorial authority, year to July 2013-2022.

Source: New Zealand Transport Agency, 2023

Overall, Wairarapa has the highest number of serious crashes per capita. Some of the factors leading to the higher crash rate relate to the Wairarapa's rural nature, with more open roads with roads and higher overall speeds. Drivers in the Wairarapa are also covering more kilometres than elsewhere in the region. With the Wairarapa having high tourist numbers and a smaller local population, overseas drivers, likely to be unfamiliar with the local roads are also a factor in crashes in this part of our region.

In absolute numbers, Wellington City experiences the highest number of deaths and serious injuries. 


Crash Injuries by Travel Mode 2018 - 2023

Crash Analysis System (CAS) is New Zealand’s primary tool for capturing information about where, when and how crashes occur.

This map shows CAS crash injuries (minor injury, serious injury, or death) between 2018 - 2023 by road user type.

Click to See CAS Injury Data by Road User Type:

Pedestrians and cyclists are at greater risk of injury on our roads – despite making up only a small percentage of total trip distance in the region, they account for 27% of all crashes causing death or serious injury.

For more information about the CAS system, and the limitations of this data see the  NZTA CAS information page .


Strategic access

Across the region, there are key destinations, including ports, airports, hospitals and centres of economic activity that are critical to the economic and social wellbeing of the region. It is important that they are supported by well-designed transport corridors with efficient and reliable connections. 

Consequently, strategic access has been included in RLTP 2021 as a 10-year transport investment priority:

These key regional destinations rely on strategic road and rail networks for access and connectivity. The map below shows key regional destinations and how they are serviced by different transport modes.


Explore Wellington's Regional Transport Networks:

Click on the buttons below to view a network.


Access to key regional destinations

High traffic volumes and delays on key routes negatively impact access to these destinations. Over the last 10 years traffic volumes increased on average by 1-2% per year at specific state highway locations outside of Wellington City. However, these increases varied throughout the region: the greatest rates of increase were in Wairarapa, and Wellington City the lowest.  

As a consequence of COVID-19, state highway traffic volumes decreased between 2019 and 2021 in most parts of the region. However, the most recent data shows that they are now similar to pre-COVID-19 levels: 

Figure: Average daily light vehicle counts, weekdays, May 2019 and May 2023

Average daily vehicles at selected monitoring locations, Source: Wellington Transport Analytics Unit, July 2023

Increasing traffic volumes impact on travel speeds and travel times, which are other key indicators to describe the efficiency of our strategic road network. Travel speeds continue to be slow and variable on both state highways and local roads. This is a particular problem during peak hours and increasingly during weekends.  

Annual average daily traffic, 2022 

Traffic Volumes - Average Annual Daily Traffic Map

The exception was 2020, when peak-time speeds were only slightly slower than off-peak speeds due to COVID-19. Now speeds are very similar to what they were pre-COVID-19, including the significant variability between peak and off-peak:

Figure: Median speed during AM peak and off-peak on selected key routes 

Source: Wellington Transport Analytics Unit, July 2023

Slow travel speeds have negative impact on the economic and social wellbeing of the region, as they slow down the delivery of goods and increase people’s journey times. Variable travel speeds make journey times less reliable and journeys more difficult to plan.

This information suggests road access to the region’s key regional destinations - ports, airports, hospitals and centres of economic activity - continues to be negatively impacted by congestion, slow travel speeds and unreliable journey times. This is most evident in Wellington City where CentrePort, Wellington Regional Hospital, and Wellington International Airport are located. Access and connectivity are also issues for Seaview Gracefield, the region’s largest industrial area and site of Wellington’s fuel terminal.

Traffic Flow on Key Selected Routes - Am Peak - Travel Direction: To Wellington CBD, To Airport, & To Seaview. source - TrafficWatcher, Nov 2022

Freight

COVID-19 and severe weather events have further exposed issues in New Zealand’s freight and supply chain system. Examples are delays and price increases for building material due to COVID-19, and problems with re-stocking supermarkets when roads were blocked after weather related slips. It is expected that the environment New Zealand’s freight and supply chains are operating in will not return to how they were before COVID-19, and that freight costs will continue to be higher, contributing to cost of living pressures.  

For our region, CentrePort (and to a lesser extent Wellington Airport particularly for high value, time critical freight) plays a crucial role in getting freight into and out of the region. Wellington is also a key part of the main New Zealand spine, connecting the North and South Island main trunk lines through the two Cook Strait ferry service operators. This provides important connections for both freight and passengers. 


Strategic Freight Network Map:

This map shows the regional road and rail freight network.  

Following an upgrade after the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake, CentrePort now has resilient infrastructure capacity to meet future demand requirements. Work is also underway to increase regional resilience and improve freight, passenger access and connections as part of changes to the port and ferry terminal location and layout. However, the port’s access and connectivity via rail and road require further attention as freight volumes are expected to continue to increase in the future alongside regional population growth.

Emissions from freight are among the fastest growing in the transport sector. CentrePort is taking a range of measures to reduce their emissions profile, including moving more freight by rail. This requires further investment into rail infrastructure, as freight competes with passenger transport on a narrow corridor in our region.



Travel choice

Providing more travel choice and reducing the dependency on private vehicles will deliver wide-ranging benefits across the region. These include benefits for those without access to private vehicles and improved capacity on the road network for freight and those trips that can only be made by private vehicle. An important part of this is reliable, frequent and affordable public transport. Active modes also have a role to play, particularly in urbanised areas.

RLTP 2021 contains two 10-year transport investment priorities relating to improving travel choice. One is focused on active modes and public transport: 

The other relates specifically to public transport capacity:

Public transport capacity has been highlighted as a separate priority as the lack of public transport capacity risks limiting the region’s ability to accommodate future growth and achieve the desired mode shift.  

These two transport investment priorities are crucial if we want to make significant progress towards the RLTP’s mode share 10-year headline target: 

40 percent increase in active travel and public transport mode share by 2030.

Journey to work and working from home 

Our region has one of the highest proportions of people using public transport, walking and cycling in New Zealand. However, use of these modes varies across the region and the private vehicle remains the most used (and for many people the most feasible) mode in our region (e.g.: around 65% of people in the region use cars to get to work). This is particularly the case outside the main urban areas.  


The map illustrates the role different modes play for journeys to work (of people aged 15 and older) in different parts of the region. It is based on the 2018 Census, the latest available data and looks at origins of trips. 

Main means of travel is the transport mode a person uses to travel the greatest distance on their way to their place of work.

Click to explore Wellingtonian's travel modes to work:

For more information about this data, see the StatsNZ  data page .


Since COVID-19, working from home has become much more acceptable and common for certain occupations. In 2022, more than 30% of people in the Wellington Region responded to a survey question “do you work remotely from home?” that they do it all the time, while over 50% said that they do it sometimes. This is a higher percentage than any other region in New Zealand 3 .  

Working from home is particularly attractive for people living in more rural areas or with longer journeys to their workplace, which is often in Wellington City. 


The main means of travel to work across Wellington Region remains private vehicle (65% of the working population 15 years or older).

This map (based on 2018 Census data) shows the other main transport modes used by Wellingtonians to travel to work. Each area is categorised based on the main transport type (predominant category) used to travel to work other than a private vehicle.

Click the map to see a breakdown of travel mode types for each area.

Click to zoom to an area of interest:

Wairarapa:

Kāpiti Coast:

Upper Hutt:

Porirua:

Hutt City:

Wellington City:

Please note: This data is captured at an SA2 level and does not relate to individual buildings, properties, or units.

For more information about this data, see the StatsNZ  data page .


We don’t know yet if working from home will turn into a longer-term behaviour trend. However, many office-based businesses now provide smaller offices compared with pre-COVID-19, on the assumption that staff will work remotely, at least part of the time. Therefore, a higher level of remote working is likely to persist. This change in working behaviour has the potential to impact on many aspects of our transport system, such as peak-hour congestion on our roads, and capacity constraints on buses and trains.  

Active modes

Around half of all weekday trips in the Wellington region are either within Wellington City or to/from the Wellington City. Active modes and public transport accounted for about 50% of people who accessed the Wellington CBD cordon during the morning peak immediately before and during COVID-19 (2019-21). 

While cycling volumes vary significantly from day to day because of the weather, the long-term trend for cycling has been upwards. This is particularly the case along corridors that have seen investment in cycling facilities (such as Oriental Parade in Wellington City). At the Wellington CBD cordon level, this upwards trend has continued between 2020 and 2022, during a period where COVID negatively impacted the number of PT commuters. The region’s bike network plans will greatly increase the amount of dedicated bike lanes this decade. 

Source: Wellington Transport Analytics Unit: Transport insights to inform RLTP 2024-2027 mid-term review, 2023, p. 29 

While the long-term trend for cycling has been upwards, and we have seen significant investment in safe cycling infrastructure, there are still many areas that lack safe and connected cycling facilities, with cyclists often competing for road space in constrained corridors.  

Public transport 

RLTP 2021 states that higher than expected demand for rail travel means many services are operating at or near capacity during the busiest time of the commuter peak. Many bus services and routes were also at capacity because of patronage growth. However, since then COVID-19 has had significant impact on travel behaviour and has disrupted existing longer-term trends. 

Regional public transport patronage decreased significantly. At its lowest point, it was about one third lower than at its pre-COVID-19 high.

Figure: Bus and rail patronage, indexed to July 2017 

Rail and bus passenger trips relative to July 2017. Source: Wellington Transport Analytics Unit, July 2023

The yellow marked time periods show COVID-19-related lockdowns in the Wellington region. “AL” refers to the alert levels in place during the period indicated (under the government’s 4-tier Alert Level system). This system was replaced by the COVID-19 Protection Framework in December 2021, which used a traffic light system (referred to as “Framework red” in the graph).

More recently patronage is recovering and trending upwards for all public transport modes. Patronage is getting closer to (or, in case of ferry patronage, has already surpassed) pre-COVID-19 levels. However, when looking at public transport patronage in more detail, we see a more nuanced picture: 

  • Overall, bus patronage so far has recovered faster than rail patronage. Bus patronage in June 2023 was 99% of 2019 levels while rail patronage reached 85% of June 2019 levels.  
  • Patronage is recovering faster in some parts of the region than in others.  
  • Off-peak patronage has recovered faster than peak patronage, with weekend patronage now above pre-COVID-19 levels.  

Figure: PT patronage by time category, March 2019 and 2023 

Source: Wellington Transport Analytics Unit, July 2023 

• Overall, bus patronage so far is recovering faster than rail patronage. • Off-peak patronage is recovering faster than peak patronage, with weekend patronage growing particularly strongly. This phenomenon is not only observed in our region, but also in other cities around the world. Compared to other cities our peak patronage is recovering well. • Patronage is recovering faster in some parts of the region than in others.

This phenomenon is not only observed in our region, but also in other cities around the world. Compared to other cities our peak patronage is recovering well. 

A range of factors are likely to contribute to these changes, including:

  • More people are working (at least some of the time) from home, with public transport commuters working from home at a higher volume than other commuters. Starting the working day from home and travelling after peak is also increasingly an option. This could be one explanation for the slower recovery of patronage during peak-hours. It is also likely to contribute to slower rail patronage recovery, as rail journeys are on average longer (and more expensive) than bus journeys, which can make working from home more desirable for people who have this choice.
  • Our region, like the rest of New Zealand, has experienced a shortage of bus drivers. This has led to a temporary suspension of some bus trips to improve reliability. This has been done predominantly in Wellington City and Porirua (with a focus on high frequency routes and those with lower patronage). It has also required cancellations at short notice when drivers have called in sick on the day. This has impacted on capacity, frequency and reliability of some bus services, particularly during the peak.  
  • Rail services have also been impacted by temporary staff shortages over the summer 2021/22 period, which impacted the delivery of Metlink services. The region’s rail network is also going through significant maintenance and improvement activities. This has led to temporary speed restrictions on some routes or the use of buses replacing trains. Both measures reduce the attractiveness of rail services, due to longer travel times and lower journey time reliability. Bus replacements are also less convenient and comfortable than rail services. They may also not meet the standards of a typical Metlink bus due to the effects of the driver shortage. These temporary changes are likely to have impacted overall rail patronage. 
  • The government’s initiative to temporarily fund half-price fares has made public transport more affordable. This has particularly led to new journeys for discretionary purposes and is likely to have contributed to higher weekend patronage.
  • Patronage recovery for off-peak trips may have been encouraged by the introduction of off-peak fare concessions in April 2023, which reduced fares by 50% for public transport users travelling off peak. 

As is the case for other changes that relate to the disruptions caused by COVID-19, it is too early to tell if the travel behaviour changes we have seen are short-term or indicate a fundamental change to the nature and timing of public transport usage.  

There are also pre-COVID-19 issues and constraints that have been identified in RLTP 2021 that still require attention. These include:  

  • There is latent demand for all modes of public transport. It is likely that as the bus driver shortage is resolved and rail network maintenance and improvements are wrapped up, patronage will increase in line with capacity. This will over time require additional public transport capacity. 
  • Slow and at times unreliable bus journey times, due to congested roads and a lack of bus priority on key corridors. This is particularly an issue on Wellington’s Golden Mile, where space constraints lead to bus peak hour congestion, but also on other congested roads in our region. 
  • While the use of Snapper on rail has been a great success, the next step of a full integration between bus and rail ticketing still has to be implemented as part of the National Ticketing Solution. 
  • Ongoing investment is also needed to further improve the quality of the public transport infrastructure. 

Public transport is our biggest lever to reduce VKT in our region. It plays a critical role in moving large numbers of people within the region and to Wellington City, the region’s main centre of employment. Without a high-quality public transport system, we will not be able to achieve our region’s contribution to the government’s VKT reduction targets and our CO 2  emission reduction ambitions.  

Building capacity and reliability into our region’s rail network and Wellington City’s public transport network is particularly important to be able to accommodate future population growth. It is also crucial to reduce VKT and CO 2  emissions.

In May 2023, the government committed funding for the procurement of a new passenger fleet to replace the existing rolling stock that reaches end of life in 2027. This investment, which includes key rail network improvements and station upgrades, signifies an important step to provide greater capacity and connectivity across the region. 


*estimated figures based on projections

Sense Partners Population Projections -  Open in full screen 

Sense Partners Population Projections -  Open in full screen  

Source: Wellington Transport Analytics Unit, based on Sense Partners data.

2022-2048 forecast growth rate (Sense Partners, 50th percentile). Figures are relative to 2018 base year.

Source: Wellington Transport Analytics Unit: Transport insights to inform RLTP 2024-2027 mid-term review, 2023, p. 39

Source: Wellington Transport Analytics Unit: Transport insights to inform RLTP 2024-2027 mid-term review, 2023, p. 36 

Source: Ministry of Transport, July 2023

Source: Wellington Regional Land Transport Plan – Annual Monitoring Report 2022, p. 8

Source: New Zealand Transport Agency, 2023

Average daily vehicles at selected monitoring locations, Source: Wellington Transport Analytics Unit, July 2023

Source: Wellington Transport Analytics Unit, July 2023

Source: Wellington Transport Analytics Unit: Transport insights to inform RLTP 2024-2027 mid-term review, 2023, p. 29 

Rail and bus passenger trips relative to July 2017. Source: Wellington Transport Analytics Unit, July 2023

Source: Wellington Transport Analytics Unit, July 2023