Climate change through a lens of multiple knowledge systems

On scientific storylines

At the heart of this StoryMap is the Climate Centre's work with scientific storylines.  Designed to make climate science more meaningful , scientific storylines support the   integration of climate risks into humanitarian decision-making . In 2023, the Climate Centre developed climate profiles for 20 countries as part of its institutional support to the   International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) . Each country included two to three  climate storylines  developed by the Climate Centre's science team through in-depth scientific analyses based on climate model projections (scientific data-based estimates of future climate change). The development of storylines has also been key to the Climate Centre's support to the   International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC)  , as well as for National Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies implementing climate-related programming.

The climate storyline approach draws on broader exploration of   similar approaches to bring climate science into decision-   making . Storyline approaches are a response to the difficulty, if not impossibility of defensibly calculating the probabilities of a particular climate change impact (e.g., increasing crop failures) given the large uncertainties in data and modeling at local decision-relevant scales in data sparse regions. Storyline approaches focus more on understanding the different plausible chains of events that could result from climate extremes and change, directly acknowledging that there are many uncertainties. Because of these uncertainties, as in many aspects of life, we must consider multiple plausible chains of events, multiple possible stories of the future. Storylines are about understanding how one thing leads to another, and as such they help us directly address how we might change these future storylines through adaptation and resilience. Once we know our stories, we can begin to write new, more climate-resilient stories.

The success of global and regional emission policies is one of the greatest uncertainties over the next 50 years. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are similar to storylines in that they represent different plausible outcomes of international and national decisions on economic development and emissions.  They range from a very optimistic SSP1 scenario, through to SSP5, a pessimistic scenario in which the world is still dominated by fossil fuels.  SSPs are most important over the longer term (50+ years). Therefore, for our storylines we rely on climate science modeling driven by the emissions scenarios associated with SSP2.  This is a "middle of the road" future that follows recent policy implementation trends.  As will be seen, even under this single global pathway or storyline, there are large uncertainties associated with projected changes in local-scale weather and climate extremes.  Our storylines help us make sense of these uncertain climate projections.

On traditional knowledge systems To complement the climate profiles, this story map highlights a handful of traditional, indigenous, and local knowledge practices. The purpose of this is to showcase just some of the ways in which local populations in countries affected by armed conflict and violence have addressed - and continue to address - climate, environmental, and social challenges, and to make the case for carefully seeking out local approaches, and for local leadership to guide all climate and humanitarian interventions. Two points are important to note : (1) there are myriad local knowledge systems and perspectives that are not represented here ; and (2) there are   various issues   with the label ing of knowledge as "indigenous", "traditional" and/or "local".

In this context, we will use the term "traditional knowledge" throughout this project to raise awareness about important ways of knowing, doing and seeing that are often not adequately, appropriately, or at all integrated into climate and humanitarian problem-solving. By weaving in examples of local knowledge and cultural practices from the 20 countries included here, the scientific storylines take on a tangible form set against the canvas of contemporary life, allowing us to visualize the potential impacts on, for example, traditional beekeeping or water management, but also to highlight how communities continue to face the climate crisis in their own ways, and the opportunities for cooperation that can emerge.

Traditional knowledge evolves and changes from generation to generation. Ethnic groups and traditions are often not homogeneous nor static. Especially in extremely complex environments, such as conflict contexts, it is essential to understand cultural values and historical measurement tools in any new adaptation efforts, even if it is found that some traditional practices are no longer viable in their original forms. As such, attention needs to paid in each location and context to understand the knowledge systems and how they interact with each other, both in the past, present, and future    

Integrating knowledge systems The integration of traditional knowledge with scientific understanding is not just a methodological choice. Integrating traditional knowledge with scientific knowledge, but also, integrating scientific knowledge with traditional knowledge, and moving toward a new paradigm beyond hierarchies of knowledge is necessary.   The Climate and Environment Charter   for Humanitarian Organizations, developed through extensive global consultations, highlights the need to understand and integrate different perspectives and knowledge systems to address the complex challenges posed by climate change. It is encouraging to see an increasing number of National Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies adopting      the   Locally-Led Adaptation approach  , an evolving example of scientific and local knowledge systems in practice.

We use storylines because there are often large uncertainties about projected changes in climate, particularly related to rainfall, drought, and seasonal changes. However, for variables where uncertainties are relatively low, we also present maps of average projected changes to help understand the possible geographical spread of climate change across a country.  The values shown across the maps are only indicative of the type of magnitudes of change that can be expected, averaged over several decades, and should not be used as definitive predictions of change. Thus, for each country you will find: (1) scientific storylines; (2) the average of multiple climate model projections of temperature, annual hot days, extreme precipitation intensity and sea level rise; and (3) the traditional knowledge examples, as discussed in the section above. Here is how to get started

1. Continuous scroll: Scroll down to go through the entire map.
2. Location map: Directly below is a world map. Click on the red pins to navigate to the different countries.
3. Top bar: At the top of this page you will notice the StoryMap’s "chapters" including introduction, the regions covered and conclusion. Click on those chapters to skip around the story map.

The most common hydrometeorological hazards in Afghanistan are flooding and droughts depending on the region. Droughts are caused by localized lack of spring rainfall and reduced snowmelt in the highland areas. Floods are mostly caused by localized heavy spring rains and increased snowmelt in the highlands (WFP et al., 2016). Between January and     June 2023, more than 9,000 people were affected by various hazards (avalanches, earthquakes, flooding, heavy rainfall, snowfall and landslides) in different districts across the country. 

Storyline 1 - Hotter and no rainfall change:

• Under this storyline, average and extreme temperatures continue to rise over the next 20-30 years and beyond. By the 2050s, average annual temperatures across the country are between 1.7°C and 1.9°C higher than in the recent past (1995-2014). The largest increases occur between July and October.
• Hot summers in the southern regions with extreme temperatures above 40°C are even hotter. The number of hot days above 40°C between June and August increases to more than 80 days in Nimroz and Hilmand, and more than 75 days in Farah and Kandahar by 2050.
• In the cooler central and northern regions, summers are also getting warmer, but  less hot than in southern regions. Maximum temperatures reach 27°C in Badakhshan, 29°C in Baghlan, and 35°C in Ghor. Rainfall is still highly seasonal, with the highest amounts occurring between November and May and a dry summer with little precipitation from June to September.
• The mountainous north-east region of Badakhshan continues to record the most rainfall with around 130 mm in April. The southern regions of Nimroz, Hilmand and Kandahar remain dry with rainfall amounts of around 15mm in the winter seasons.
• Regardless of change in long-term average rainfall and temperature, inter annual variability in precipitation is projected to increase. As a result, both droughts during cycles of unusually dry seasons and floods during wetter wet seasons should be anticipated. Rising temperatures will lead to increased heat stress for people and nature.

Water stress will increase outside the rainy season due to higher temperature increasing evapotranspiration, particularly in the drier southern regions. In the central regions, humid heat stress is also likely to increase at the beginning and end of the rainy season, when temperatures are high.

Storyline 2 - Hotter and drier springs:

• Temperature increases as described in Storyline 1. Increasing temperatures lead to increased heat stress for people and nature. 
• In spring, between February and April, rainfall is projected to decrease. The drier central and southern regions experience drying, especially during the early spring with at least 20 per cent less precipitation by 2050 than in the recent past.
• In the very dry south, (Farah, Nimroz, Hilmand and Kandahar) this is associated with a reduction of more than 5mm to around 1 mm by 2050. The wetter northern region experiences decreasing rainfall particularly in March and April, which are the wettest months. Rainfall is projected to decrease around 10 per cent by 2050
• In Badakhshan, this leads to a decrease of over 30mm to less than 100mm during the wettest month of April by 2050. The rest of the year experiences rainfall as usual and potentially even slightly wetter autumns.
• The reduction in spring precipitation will likely affect water storage and agriculture later in the year, particularly in the dry southern regions. Less snow due to higher temperatures will be associated with reduced snow melt in the spring and summer, reducing water availability during those seasons and affecting agriculture. 
• Regardless of change in long- term average rainfall and temperature, inter annual variability of precipitation is projected to increase. As a result, both droughts during cycles of unusually dry seasons and floods during wetter wet seasons should be anticipated. 

Storyline 3 - Hotter and wetter:

• Temperatures increase as described in Storyline 1. Under this storyline, rainfall increases in the next 20 to 30 years, particularly in the wetter season
• During the wettest months of March and April, rainfall in Badakhshan increases from 130mm in the recent past to more than 150 mm around 2050.
• In Takhar, rainfall increases from around 100 mm to more than 120 mm, in Bamyan from 65mm to more than 80 mm, in Kabul from 60 mm to more than 75 mm and in Ghor from 50 mm to more than 60mm.
• In the dry southern regions, rainfall is projected to increase in the wet months of March and April from 15 mm to more than 25 mm in Hilmand and Kandahar, from 10 mm to more than 20 mm in Nimroz and from 18 mm to more than 30 mm in Farah.
• The increase in winter precipitation is also associated with an increase in extreme precipitation and pluvial flooding. The compound increase in precipitation and temperature is likely to increase humid heat stress, particularly at the beginning and the end of the wet season, when temperatures are high.Inter annual variability is projected to increase, leading to wetter and drier seasons and years, which may be associated with droughts and floods. 

Myanmar is exposed to various natural hazards, such as extreme temperatures, drought, cyclones, flooding and heavy rainfall events (World Bank, 2021). Coastal regions experience the highest exposure to tropical cyclones whereas inland regions are generally hotter and drier (World Bank, 2021). Because of climate change and environmental degradation, extreme weather events are becoming more severe and frequent. Man and extreme temperatures increased significantly in recent decades (Sein et al., 2018).  

In August 2019, Myanmar was hit by severe flooding that caused destructive landslides in various regions, affecting the lives of more than 200,000 people      (Tun, 2022). The recent tropical cyclone Mocha affected more than 1 million people by May 2023 (AHA Centre, 2023). 

Drought is considered to be the most severe natural hazard in the country, due to its detrimental effects on health, property, assets and livelihoods (World Bank, 2021). However, droughts were not reported in the international disaster database EM-DAT from 1980-2020 (  World Bank, 2021  ), highlighting the need for a systematic collection of impact data. 

In August 2019, Myanmar was faced with severe floods that affected several regions and led to destructive landslides. More than 200,000 people were affected (Tun, 2022). The recent tropical cyclone Mocha also affected over 1 million people by May 2023 (AHA Centre, 2023). 

Drought is considered to be the most severe natural hazard in the country, due to its detrimental effects on health, property, assets and livelihoods (World Bank, 2021). However, droughts were not reported in the international disaster database EM-DAT      from 1980-2020 (  World Bank, 2021  ), highlighting the need for a systematic collection of impact data. 

Storyline 1 - Hotter and wetter wet monsoon season:

• As global temperatures continue to increase, temperatures across Myanmar will      follow the same trend, reaching 1°C warmer than recent temperatures and 2°C warmer than pre-industrial temperatures by the 2050s.
• As average temperatures rise, the number of very hot days (above 35°C) also increases, rising from the current average of around 76 days per year to 110 days  per year in the Bago Region. In the cooler northern Shan, the current average of about 26 days per year will climb to around 43 days per year by the 2050s.
• Average rainfall during the monsoon season gradually increases and becomes more intense (1 to 5 day extremes) from the present through the 2050s. However, wetter and drier seasons continue to occur due to natural climate variability. As average rainfall gradually increases, dry years are less frequent but hotter, affecting agriculture, livestock and water resources.
• Very wet seasons become even wetter and, combined with more intense rainfall, increase the risk of flooding in flood-prone areas, as well as landslides in landslide prone areas. Flooding combined with higher temperatures increases the risk of water- related health impacts.

Storyline 2 - Hotter and drier wet season – most likely for the currently drier central/inland regions:

• Temperature increases as described in Storyline 1. 
• A progressive shift towards a later onset and earlier end of the monsoon rainfall season results in a lower total rainfall.  However, the intensity of the monsoon season rainfall(1 to 5 day extremes) increases from the present to the 2050s, resulting in increased risk of flooding in flood-prone areas and landslides in landslide prone areas. 
• Flooding combined with higher temperatures leads to increased water- related health impacts.
• Anomalous wet and dry seasons continue to occur due to natural regional climate variability. However, as average rainfall gradually decreases, dry years are increasingly common and also increasingly hot, resulting in greater impacts on agriculture, livestock and health.  

Yemen experiences a variety of hazards, including extreme temperatures, floods, storms (tropical cyclones), landslides and droughts. These weather events are compounded by conflict and weak governance systems, increasing the country’s vulnerability to climate extremes. 

Between 1980-2020, 34 floods were reported in the international disaster database EM-DAT (Table 1). In recent years, Yemen has experienced several severe floods (Figure 3). In 2022, the governorates of Hajjah, Al Jawf, Saada and Marib in northern and central Yemen were hit, affecting more than 300,000 people (  Relief web  ). Heavy rainfall triggered flash flooding and caused the recent floods. However, seasonal flooding of wadis and coastal flooding due to cyclones also contributed to the reported floods (Climate Centre, 2021).

In addition, heat extremes have become more frequent in recent decades (high confidence, IPCC 2021). Despite this increase, no heat waves were recorded in the EM-DAT database (Table 1) between 1980 and 2020. This shows the limitations of EM-DAT and the need to collect impact data in the region. Droughts were reported for the years 1969, 1975 and  1977 (EM-DAT). With a lack of long-term observational data, there is no evidence about changes in precipitation (IPCC, 2021). Note that water scarcity can also be driven by agricultural use and groundwater exploitation.  

Storyline 1 - Hotter and Wetter:

• Mean temperatures are expected to increase across Yemen by 1.2°C to 1.5°C by 2050 (high confidence). The number of hot days above 35°C is also expected to increase, from an average of 68 days per year (1995-2014) to 92 days per year by 2050. The number of hot days is expected to rise in all regions, especially between June and August. The strongest increases during this period are expected in Al Maharah with an additional 22 very hot days followed by 18 days in Al Jawf and 16 days in Shabwah.
• Average rainfall is projected to remain generally low, but rainfall is expected to increase slightly across the country, particularly between June to August. The increase is projected to be stronger in the wetter regions along the coast and in the mountains, and lower in the drier eastern parts.
• The projections do not show an increase in extreme precipitation events, but extreme precipitation events are likely to continue to show natural variability, particularly in mountainous and coastal regions.
• Flooding will continue, particularly in coastal regions and will be exacerbated by sea-level rise. In summer, the increase in precipitation coupled by higher temperatures is likely to increase humid heat stress, particularly in the hottest regions in the east (Al Maharah, Hadramaut). In addition, some years will be anomalously dry because of natural variability.                

Storyline 2 - Hotter and usual rainfall conditions:

• Temperature increases as described in Storyline 1. Rainfall continues to be generally low across the country. The eastern regions of Al Maharah and Hadramaut remain drier than western and coastal regions.   
•  The number of consecutive dry days remains high, particularly between December and February. Almost every day is dry, with no precipitation. Al Maharah and Hadramaut are dry all year round, except for the months of August and September. 
• Combined with warmer temperatures, higher evaporation rates are expected to rise, further increasing water stress and stunting growth for crops. The combination of hot and dry events is set to increase across the country, making droughts more likely. Natural variability continues to produce anomalously dry and wet years, including floods. 

Iraq is highly susceptible to floods, droughts and dust storms (World Bank, 2021). The annual fluctuations of the Tigris (February to June) and the Euphrates rivers (March to July) are the main drivers of floods. The Tigris River can rise over 30cm per hour, greatly affecting the southern parts of Iraq (World Bank, 2021).

There is a high risk of flood in most regions (with a lesser risk in Dahuk, Erbil and Sulaymaniyah). In 2015, more than 65,000 people were affected by floods, and more than 25,000 in 2018. In recent years, Iraq has experienced more frequent and more intense dust storms (shamals and haboobs). This marked increase in dust has been associated with drought conditions in the Fertile Crescent (Notaro et al., 2015; Yu et al., 2015). Although heat risk is high between May to October no impacts have been reported in EM-DAT (World Bank 2021). 

Storyline 1 - Hotter and slightly drier in the north, slightly wetter in the south:

•  In this storyline, mean temperatures and hot extremes increase faster than the global mean across the country. By 2050, mean daily temperatures in all regions are around 1.8°C higher than in the recent past (1995-2014) and up to 1.9 °C higher for daily maximum temperatures. The largest temperature increases occur from July to October. By 2050, maximum temperatures during the warmest months will increase from 42 to 44°C in June, 45 to 47°C in July and from 44 to 47°C in August compared to the recent past (1995-2014). 
• The wetter northern regions (Ninew, Dahuk, Erbil) experience slightly less average precipitation in March and October while the south eastern regions (Basrah, Missan, Thi-Qar) experience a slight increase in rainfall. Higher temperatures, including nighttime temperatures, are associated with increased heat stress for people and the environment.
• As temperatures rise, enhanced evaporation and water usage, increase water stress. Hot and dry conditions particularly in the driest regions are likely related to dust storms driven by the Sharqui winds from April to June and from September to November.
• Regardless of changes in long-term average rainfall and temperature, inter annual precipitation variability is projected to remain high. Ongoing cycles of unusually dry seasons and droughts, as well as wet seasons leading to flooding in flood-prone areas, should be anticipated. 

Storyline 2 - Hotter and wetter winters:

• Temperature is set to increase as described in Storyline 1. In this storyline, average precipitation increases in all regions during the wet season between October and May. We observe a stronger relative increase in the drier south than in the wetter north but an overall (absolute) stronger increase in the north than in the south.
• The  wetter northern regions (Dahuk, Erbil, Sulaymaniyah, Kirku) are likely to experience an increase of more than 20mm/year on average. Salah al-Din, Ninewa, Diyala and Baghdad, in the north west and centre, will see an increase of around 10     mm.   
•  In the south eastern regions of Basrah, Missan and Thi-Qar annual rainfall increases by around 10mm and in the south western regions of Anbar, Najaf, Muthanna, Kerbala and Babil by around 5mm. Higher temperatures, leading to increased heat      and water stress, remain as described above in Storyline 1, hot and dry conditions related to dust storms.
• Regardless of changes in long- term average rainfall and temperature, inter  annual precipitation variability precipitation is projected to remain high. Ongoing cycles of unusually dry seasons and droughts, as well as wet seasons leading to flooding in flood-prone areas, should be anticipated. 

Storyline 3 - Hotter and drier winters:

• Temperature is projected to increase as described in Storyline 1. In this storyline, rainfall decreases during the rainy season between October and May across the country, with the strongest decreases in the wetter north. In the Dahuk, Erbil, Sulaymaniyah and Kirku regions, average annual rainfall decreases around 10 mm. 
• In the south eastern regions (Basrah, Missan, Thi-Qar) rainfall only decreases by less than 5 mm similarly to the south western regions (Anbar, Najaf, Muthanna, Kerbala, Babil). Higher temperatures leading to impacts such as increased heat and water stress, remain as described above in Storyline 1, with the same driver of hot and dry conditions related to dust storms.
• Regardless of changes in long-term average rainfall and temperature, inter annual precipitation variability is projected to remain high. Ongoing cycles of unusually dry seasons and droughts, as well as wet seasons leading to flooding in flood- prone areas, should be anticipated.

Located at the Mediterranean Sea and in the world’s most arid region, Lebanon faces often-compounding extreme weather events, including drought, wildfire, flooding and winter storms (  World Bank, 2021  ). Observed trends show an increase in hot extremes (high confidence) and increase in agricultural droughts (medium conference) (IPCC, 2021). The number of hot days and nights has increased since 1960, mostly in the summer months and rainfall decreased (  World Bank, 2021) .  In 2013, for instance, Lebanon was hit by a drought and extreme heat in the summer, followed by a winter storm in January (Verner et al., 2018). However, extreme temperatures and droughts were not reported in the international disaster risk database EM-DAT between 1980-2020. This highlights the need for the collection of impact data particularly on heat and drought in the region. Reported impacts in the EM-DAT database from 1980 to 2020 include storms, floods and wildfire. 

Storyline 1 - Hotter and drier:

• Mean and maximum temperatures are expected to increase in various regions for the next 20-30 years by 1.4 to 1.5 °C (mean) and 1.5°C to 1.6°C (max) by 2050 compared to the recent past, with the strongest increase for the inland region of Bekaa. The strongest rise in temperature will be between May and October, which will particularly increase compound hot and dry events. 
• All regions are projected to become slightly drier until 2050 with annual reductions of 5 per cent(Mount Lebanon, South, Nbatiye) to 6% (Bekaa, North) associated with a total rainfall decrease between 40mm (Beeka, Nbatiye, South) and 50mm (Mount Lebanon, North) per year. Changes differ by season, with a  slight decrease in total rainfall projected during the summer months where precipitation is already low and stronger decreases in total rainfall expected from October to February, when precipitation is generally higher.
• The number of consecutive dry days is expected to increase particularly between October and February —June, July and August being already dry. The combination of high temperature and reduced precipitation increases the number of compound hot and dry events.
• Water stress, droughts and fire weather risks will increase.  

 Storyline 2 - Hotter and drier winters:

• Temperature increases as described in Storyline 1. June to August are the driest months and precipitation is low as usual. However, precipitation is expected to strongly decrease between October and March in all regions by 2050. The strongest decrease is projected for October from up to -45 per cent and about – 25 per cent in February in all regions.
• Winters are expected to be drier and warmer as usual. The duration of the longest dry periods is projected to increase in October by up to 7 days in the north, 5 days in the Beeka and Mount Lebanon regions, and 4 days in the south and Nbatiye.
• The decrease in winter precipitation hampers groundwater recharge, which usually takes place in the wetter months. As a result, water stress increases throughout the year. These changes are projected to increase the frequency and the severity of droughts, affecting agriculture, electricity production and water systems (ICRC, 2022).  

 Storyline 3 - Hotter and wetter winters:

• Temperature increases as described in Storyline 1. June to August are the driest months and precipitation is low as usual. However, total precipitation slightly increases between October and March. In October, rainfall is projected to increase by up to 20 per cent and by up to 17 per cent in all regions by 2050. This is associated with an increase in rainfall on rainy days from up to 8mm to 20mm rather than longer rainfall periods.
• Increased rainfall may allow groundwater recharge, which may mitigate warming as more water will evaporate and the latent cooling may partly counteract the temperature increase. This will slightly reduce water stress and agricultural impacts.
• Because of the warmer atmosphere, rainstorms during the rainy season are expected to be more intense.

Syria is affected by various hazards, including floods, droughts, extreme temperatures, landslides, storms and wildfires (World Bank, 2021). In 2008, for example, a drought in Syria affected around 1.3 million people. In 2019, Syria experienced severe flooding that affected around 235,000 people, and in 2020, wildfires affected more than 140,000 people. Syria has experienced increases in extreme temperatures in recent decades with both an increase in the frequency and intensity of hot extremes (IPCC 2021). However, the international disaster database EM-DAT has not reported any extreme temperatures between 1980 and 2020. This highlights the need for a systematic collection of impact data in the region and does not indicate an absence of extreme weather events. Indeed, temperature increases in particular during the hottest months are likely to have substantial impacts on people's health and livelihoods.  

Storyline 1 - Hotter and drier:

• Mean and maximum temperatures are expected to increase across the country for the next 20-30 years by 1.6 to 1.9     °C (mean) and 1.7°C to 2.0°C (max) by 2050 with the strongest increase for the inland region Hassakeh. By 2050, the number of hot days above 35°C will increase by 10-16 days in the northeastern region, rising to 129 in Hassakeh, to 125 in Day az Zor, to 116 days in Raqqa, and to 98 days in Homs.
• Western regions will see the largest increases with an average of 69 hot days in Idleb (26 additional days), and 79 days in Hama (24 additional days). By 2050, Homs is projected to have around 98 hot days and Damascus 86 days. The strongest increase in hot days above 35°C will occur between May to October.
• All regions will become slightly drier throughout the year, with a slight decrease in rainfall in the summer months, when precipitation is already low and stronger decreases in total precipitation from October to February, when precipitation is generally higher.
• Strongest decreases are projected in the north western regions (Aleppo, Idleb, Lattakia, Tartous) and south western regions (Al Qunaytirah, Dara, As Suweida, Damascus) by around 11-18mm from December to February.
• The maximum rainfall amount over 5 consecutive days will slightly increase, indicating that there will be more days with stronger precipitation followed by dry days. As a result, more hot anddry days are likely to occur simultaneously. The combination of hot temperature and lower precipitation is likely to increase water stress, risks for droughts, dust storms and fire weather.
• As natural regional climate variability continues to remain high, both wetter and drier seasons will continue to occur and remain linked to flood events. 

Storyline 2 - Hotter and drier winters:

• Temperature increases as described in Storyline 1. June to August remain the driest months and precipitation is low as usual. However, precipitation will strongly decrease between October and March in all regions, with the strongest decreases projected for the months of December and January. This is accompanied by a projected increase in the duration of dry spells from around 15 days to around 20 days in 2050.
• The coastal regions of Lattakia and Tartous show a large decrease from up to 50mm in December and January. In Idleb, rainfall is also expected to decrease up to 50mm in December - from more than 80mm to around 30mm — and more than 30mm in January. In Hama, rainfall is projected to decrease from around 60mm to 30mm in December and January.
• The drier regions in the north (Hassakeh, Day az Zor) and east (Homs) will see a smaller decrease in rainfall, but will become 10mm drier on average. As December and January are usually the wettest months and are important for both agriculture and the ecosystem, this will have a strong impact on the water cycle.
• The concurrence of hotter and drier months will likely enhance water stress and have a major impact on agriculture. Furthermore, drought, dust storms and fire weather are likely to increase. 

Storyline 3 - Hotter and wetter winters:

• Temperature increases as described in Storyline 1. June, July and August remain the driest months and precipitation is low as usual. However, average precipitation will slightly increase between October and March.Wet days will become wetter with no increase in extreme rainfall.
• Winter precipitation in the coastal regions of Lattakia and Tartous is projected to increase from an average of around 100mm to an average of 150 mm in December and January. The drier regions in the north (Hassakeh, Day az Zor) and east (Homs) will become wetter on average by 10-20mm. Consequently, the combination of heat and humidity is expected to increase humid heat stress between October and March.
• Increased rainfall may buffer the warming in spring and summer as more water evaporates and the latent cooling may partly counteract the temperature increase. On the other hand, due to the projected increases in precipitation and high climate variability, flood events are likely to continue to occur, as will droughts, especially in the summer months. 

Sudan experiences various extreme weather and climate events in particular floods and drought (World Bank, 2021). Compound events such as subsequent floods and droughts, as well as climate extremes and conflicts can aggravate impacts. In 2022, floods affected nearly 350,000 people in 16 states across Sudan, including Central Darfur, Gedaref, Kassala, River Nile, South Darfur, West Darfur, and White Nile.

Storyline 1 - Warmer and wetter:

• In this storyline, temperatures continue to rise over the next 15 to 20 years, with 2050 reaching 1°C  warmer than the recent past.
• As average temperatures increase, the number of very hot days above 35°C also increase. In the southern regions, the current average of around 200 days per year rises to around 248 days per year, and in the northern regions from around 213 to around 229 days per year.
• Average rainfall in the southern regions gradually increases by 10 per cent and in the northern regions by 30 per cent. The frequency and intensity (magnitude and extent) of flooding increases across areas that currently experience flooding. 

Storyline 2 - Hotter and drier:

• In this storyline temperatures continue to increase over the next 15 to 20 years, with 2050 reaching 1.5°C warmer than the recent past. As average temperatures increase, the number of very hot days above 35°C also increases. In the southern regions, the current average of around 200 days per year rises to around 260 days per year, and in the northern regions from around 213 to around 239 days per year.
• Coupled with rainfall variability, most of the northern regions are likely to experience hotter and drier days especially during the June-July-August (JJA) season by 2050. These regions are therefore likely to experience more droughts and sandstorms.  

Storyline 3 - Warmer to hotter, no rainfall change:

• In this storyline, temperatures continue to increase over the next 15 to 20 years, with 2050 reaching 1.2°C warmer than today(2020s). As average temperatures increase, the number of very hot days above 35°C also increases. In the southern regions, the current average of around 200 days per year rises to around 248 days per year, and in northern regions, from around 213 to around 229 days per year.
• Average rainfall in the southern regions remains largely the same as present day, though natural variability continues to produce anomalously dry and wet years, including droughts. Rainfall intensity increases, while dry spells during rain events become more frequent, resulting in possible increases in the frequency and intensity of flooding in areas that are currently flood-prone. 

The most common hydrometeorological hazards in South Sudan are floods and droughts (World Bank, 2021a). The country is also at high risk of extreme heat — particularly in urban areas  — and wildfire, and at medium risk of earthquakes (USAID, 2013). The country experiences both widespread and localized droughts and floods. Widespread events are a result of either above- or below-normal rainfall across the country, while localized events are caused by concentrated above- or below-normal rainfall in a certain region. Flash floods often occur when the Nile River and its tributaries overflow during the months of August and September (Foreign Affairs Ministry, 2020). The country has experienced extreme floods over the last 3 years with over 800,000 people affected by flooding in 2021 and over 1 million by November 2022, with the regions Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Warrap, Unity and Upper Nile being the most affected (Humdata, 2023). 

Storyline 1 - Hotter and wetter rainy season:

• In this storyline, mean and extreme temperatures increase across the country by around 1.2°C over the next 20-30 years compared to the recent past (1995-2014), with the strongest increase in the northwestern Upper Nile region. The dry season between January and May will become hotter, with a sharp increase in the number of hot days above 40°C, in particular in the hotter north.
• The strongest increase in the number of hot days is projected for Unity, where an additional 40 hot days above 40°C  per year by 2050 will lead to 80 hot days over      40°C  per year in 2050. In the Upper Nile region, Jonglei, Unity and Warab, the number of hot days above 40°C is projected to increase by at least 30 days, rising from around 40 days per year in the recent past (1995-2014) to around 70 days per year by 2050. 
• In Northern Bahr El Ghazal and El Buheyrat, the number of hot days above 40°C is expected to increase from around 25 days per year to around 50 days per year by 2050. In Western Bahr El Ghazal, the number of hot days above 40°C will increase from ten days per year in the recent past (1995-2014) to around 30 days per year by 2050.
• The colder southern regions of Western Equatoria and Central Equatoria will experience an additional eight hot days per year leading to at least 11 days per year by 2050. Eastern Equatoria will experience 19 hot days per year by 2050 compared to seven days per year in the recent past.
• The strong increase in extreme temperatures will be associated with an increase in the intensity and length of heatwaves. Precipitation will increase during the rainy season, particularly between July and October. In the northern regions (Upper Nile region, Jonglei, Unity and Warab, Northern Bahr El Ghazal and Western Bahr El Ghazal), rainfall will increase by around 10 per cent, in particular at the end of the rainy season.
• The central and southern regions (El Buheyrat, Western Equatoria, Central Equatoria and Eastern Equatoria) show a smaller increase, with only around a 5 per cent      increase in the rainy season.
• Increased rainfall in the rainy season, combined with higher temperatures and atmospheric moisture will lead to a sharp increase in extreme rainfall intensity, resulting in an increase in pluvial flooding.
• The simultaneous increase in temperature and precipitation is also likely to lead to more humid heat extremes at the beginning and the end of the rainy season(s).  

Storyline 2 - Hotter and rainfall as usual:

• Temperatures increase similarly to Storyline 1 above. In this storyline, there are no changes in the annual amount of rainfall. Precipitation mainly follows the seasonal cycle with the wetter Western Equatoria, Central Equatoria and Eastern Equatoria regions, and the drier northern regions. 
• Rainfall variability within the rainy season is high. The rainy season may start later but will then be associated with extreme rainfall. Furthermore, interannual rainfall variability remains high, with very wet and very dry years continuing to occur, associated with flooding and droughts.
•  The higher temperatures and atmospheric moisture lead to sharp increases in extreme rainfall intensity, resulting in an increase in pluvial flooding. The simultaneous increase in temperature and precipitation is also likely to lead to more humid heat extremes at the beginning and at the end of the rainy season(s). Rising temperatures, which drive increased evaporation, will lead to more intense and severe droughts and dry spells.       

In Libya, the compounding effects of ongoing conflict, climate change, and development   affect the impacts   of disasters and hazards. While Libya is documented as vulnerable to floods, events like droughts and heatwaves are not reported despite the possibility that they have in fact affected the region (World Bank, 2021a). Nevertheless, floods remain a serious hazard and during the 2019 reported flood, more than 20,000 people were affected (World Bank, 2021a).  

Storyline 1 - Hotter and drier (winters):

• In this storyline, temperatures increase by between 1.5°C and 2.0°C by the 2040-2060 period, strongly driving evaporation, evapotranspiration and increased aridity. The increase in temperature leads to an increase in the number of very hot days (greater than 35°C) by about 35 days throughout the country. This means that the already very hot southern desert regions experience more than 150 very hot days per year, while the cooler Mediterranean coastal regions experience as many as 60 hot days per year.
• Current rainfall across Libya is concentrated in the northern regions, closer to the Mediterranean Sea, and occurs during the winter months. In this storyline, winter rainfall systems shift poleward, resulting in reduced rainfall over northern Libya during the winter months.  Natural variability, largely driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation, (NAO), means that Libya will continue to experience drier years and wetter years. However, higher temperatures mean that even in relatively wetter years, aridity and water scarcity will be more intense than in recent decades. Southern Libya currently receives almost no rainfall, a situation which will continue under this storyline.
• Rainfall intensity in extreme events increases and extreme events become more common, despite the overall decrease in average rainfall.  This increases the risk of impactful flooding, particularly in the northern coastal and mountainous regions.
• Drier and hotter conditions will produce significant increases in fire risk, as well as impacts on agriculture and water supply. Extreme temperatures will likely have a significant impact on health, both directly and indirectly through limited access to water. 

Storyline 2 - Hotter, little change in annual precipitation, but wetter extremes:

• Under this storyline, temperature increases are the same as for Storyline 1, meaning increased temperatures in already arid environments will drive increased aridity and reduce water availability, especially for surface water sources.
• Given some uncertainty about changes in mid-latitude winter rainfall, the average winter rainfall shows little change through to the 2040-2060 period.
•  Natural variability will continue, largely driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), resulting in relatively dry/drought years and relatively wet years. However, the intensity of extreme rainfall will increase. This will be even more pronounced than in Storyline 1 and heavy rainfall events become more common, increasing the risk of impactful flooding, particularly in the northern coastal and mountainous regions. 

Ethiopia is at high risk for flooding and droughts, particularly in northern and eastern regions (World Bank, 2021, 2019). In 2020, a major flood affected more than 1.2 million people, after floods in 2019 affected more than 1.2 million people and 200,000 people respectively. Multiple prolonged droughts occurred in the recent decades affecting millions of people across the country (Figure 1). These hydrological droughts are especially likely to occur in the water deficit regions of Tigray, Afar and Somali.

The 2015 drought in Ethiopia was the worst in several decades, affecting more than 10 million people (Figure 1). It was associated with the 2015–2016 extreme El Niño (Blunden and Arndt, 2016; Philip et al., 2018). This climate vulnerability is strongly increased by non-climate stressors such as widely dispersed populations, high rates of poverty and the need for infrastructure with the capacity to cope with the challenges.

Storyline 1 - Hotter and diverging rainfall projections in east and west:

• In this storyline, temperatures increase between 1.2 to 1.3°C by 2050 across the country compared to the recent past (1995-2014). The strongest seasonal increase in mean temperature occurs between March and May, reaching an average temperature of 28°C for the Beneshangul Gumu region, 26°C in Tigray and 24°C Amhara.  
• The number of hot days above 35°C show the strongest increase in the eastern regions of Somali and Afar by around 15-16 additional days by 2050; this means around 60 hot days per year in Somali and around 44 hot days per year in Afar. The central areas, including the highlands, only experience a 6-9 days increase.
• In the southwestern regions of Beneshangul and Gumu, the number of hot days increases by 15 days to 51 days per year by 2050, and in Gambela, by an additional 11 days to 74 days per year. Average total annual rainfall does not change but rainfall variability remains high, leading to the occurrence of extreme precipitation, floods and droughts.
• The combination of rising temperatures and increased evaporation results in more intense and impactful droughts and dry periods. In this storyline, western regions (Amhara,Beneshangul Gumu, SNNPR) are drier in the long rainy season or Belg  from  March to May, which is associated with an increase in dry days. Rainfall in Oromia and Tigray remains as usual. Afar, Somali and Gambela receive slightly more rainfall between March and May.
• The northern regions of Tigray, Afar, and Amhara experience slightly higher average rainfall (5 per cent to 15 per cent more) during the Kiremt rainy season. In the Somali region, rainfall during the Bega wet season is about 10 per cent wetter than the recent past. 

Storyline 2 - Warmer and wetter:

• Temperatures increase similarly to Storyline 1 above, but the increase is less rapid. Under this storyline, average annual rainfall is higher than in the recent past throughout the country during the whole year, with increased mean precipitation projected in particular over the highlands.
• The increase in rainfall follows the seasonal cycle, with the strongest increases projected particularly during the Bega, Belg and Kiremt rainy seasons in the different regions. As a result, the northern regions of Tigray, Afar and Amhara experience the strongest increase in rainfall between June and October, reaching between 200-300mm in August. Somali, Oromia, SNNPR, and Gambela, which have two rainy seasons, experience higher rainfall particularly during Belg and Bega.
• In Oromia, the average rainfall increases to 200mm in April and from August to September. The increase in rainfall is associated with an increase in intensity and duration of extreme rainfall by 2050, leading to more flood events.
• Extreme flows are increasing for regions within the Blue Nile basin (low confidence and limited evidence) (Aich et al., 2014). As rainfall variability remains high, periodic droughts are also projected to continue to occur. The combination of rising      temperatures and increased evaporation results in more intense and impactful droughts and dry periods.
• The simultaneous increase in temperature and precipitation is likely to lead to more humid heat extremes, especially during the hottest months of March to May. 

Somalia experiences major floods, drought and storms as well as other extreme weather and climate events (EU inform risk, WB portal, EM-DAT). The country is classified as “high risk” for extreme events, ranking first (highest risk) out of 191 countries. The complexity of these extreme events is exacerbated      by conflict. The country experienced floods in May 2023, with more than 100,000 people affected (Reliefweb, 2023a). This came on top of the ongoing drought, which has led to an increased need for humanitarian assistance as the food insecurity crisis has worsened (Reliefweb, 2023b). 

Storyline 1 - Hotter, rainfall as usual but wetter second rainy season (Deyr):

• Mean temperature is projected to increase by 1 to 1.3°C in the next 20-30 years compared to the recent past (1995/2014). Since the country already experiences hot temperatures today, an additional temperature rise is projected by 2050 that will increase the number of hot days above 35°C across the whole country.
• On average, the number of hot days will increase from 106 in the recent past to 154 days by 2050. This means that half of the year will be marked by hot days.
• The strongest increase is projected for Nugaal, Mudug, Galgaduud, and Hiraan, leading to more than two additional months with temperatures above 35°C, equivalent to more than 135 hot days in Nugaal, Mudug and more than 190 hot days in Galgaduud, and Hiraan. By 2050, Bako and Gedool are projected to experience more than 200 hot days per year.
• Rainfall is likely to follow the usual seasonal cycle with a rainy season, Gu, between April and June, a dry period between June and October (Xagaa), a second rainy season (Deyr) between October and December, followed by the dry period between December and March (Jilaal). The second rainy season, Deyr, is slightly wetter across the country.
• By 2050, the strongest increase in average rainfall between September and November is projected for the regions around the capital Mogadishu, Shabelle Dhexe (approximately 50mm increase) and Shabelle Hoose (approximately 60mm increase).
• Average rainfall between September and November is projected to increase around 8-10 per cent (equal to 30 to 40mm) in the wetter regions in central and southern Somalia (Mudug, Galgaduud, Hiraan, Bakool, Bay, Gedo, Juba Dexe, Juba Hoose) and up to 22 per cent (equal to 12 to 20mm) in the drier regions in the north east (Sanaag, Bari). This will be associated with an increase in extreme precipitation (one-day and five-day extremes), particularly in the rainy season. As variability in rainfall remains high, droughts will also continue to occur in the future. 

 Storyline 2 - Hotter and wetter throughout the year:

• Temperature increases as described in Storyline 1. Average rainfall increases throughout the whole year, during the two wet seasons but also in the normally drier periods. Larger increases in rainfall are projected in all regions during the dry season Xagaaa compared to the dry season Jilaal. By 2050, in the drier regions of the north east (Baari, Sanaag, Sool and Nugaal), average rainfall is projected to increase from around 0mm to 20-40mm in July during the dry season Xagaa.
• Precipitation is projected to increase In all regions during the two rainy seasons, with an average rainfall in October of at least 200mm in the southern regions (Mudug, Galgaduud, Hiraan, Bakool, Bay, Gedo, Juba Dexe, Juba Hoose, Shabelle Dhexe and Shabelle Hoose) and at least 100mm in Sanaag and Bari.
• The projected increase in rainfall during the wet seasons is likely to be associated with an increase in extreme precipitation events. However, as rainfall variability remains high, the extreme precipitation can be followed by dry periods. The rainfall increases during the dry periods, which will also become hotter, are likely to be associated with an increase in humid heat.

Burkina Faso faces multiple natural hazards, namely droughts, floods, heatwaves and windstorms, which hinder its development and lead to issues including desertification, land degradation, food insecurity, increased poverty rates, migration from central areas, and overall socioeconomic challenges (World Bank, 2021c). The country's heavy reliance on agriculture further increases its vulnerability to these hazards. In recent years, Burkina Faso has been hit by a number of devastating droughts, affecting around 6.8 million people in 2020, 3.5 million people in 2011 and 600,000 people in 2010 (Figure 2). Floods also affected several thousand people in recent years, including in 2018 and 2019. 

Storyline 1 - Hotter, wetter monsoon season:

• In this storyline, average and extreme temperatures increase in the next 20-30 years by approximately 1.3°C across the country. Average annual temperatures in the northern regions exceed 42° C while those in the south exceed 40° C. The whole year becomes warmer, following the seasonal cycle, with the strongest temperature increases in the hot season before the wet season, from March to May.
• Higher temperatures result in more frequent very hot days.  In the hot northern regions (Sahel, Nord and Est), the number of days over 40° C increases by as much as 18 days per year. This means that regions like the Sahel experience more than 90 extremely hot days per year. In the cooler south, the number of extremely hot days increases by around 10 days per year, almost doubling the average number of extremely hot days per year and exceeding 20 days per year across the southern region.
• In this storyline, average rainfall increases slightly in the rainy season between July and September in the whole country. In the drier northern regions, August rainfall is projected to increase by around 15mm to more than 140mm by 2050, in the wetter central by around 30mm to around 230mm, and in the southern regions by around 30mm to around 300mm. However, there are times when the monsoon season pauses, and periods of very little rainfall are still common This means Burkina Faso may face both the effects of extended dry periods and the risks of heavy rains in certain areas, which can lead to flooding.
• The increase in temperature will lead to an increase in extreme heat for people and nature. Furthermore, water stress will increase outside of the rainy season as      higher overall temperatures increase evapotranspiration, particularly in the drier northern regions.
• The last months of the dry season are likely to become extremely water stressed regardless of changes in rainfall. In the northern regions, humid heat stress is also likely to increase after the rainy season in October and November as hot temperatures coincide with higher humidity. 

 Storyline 2 - Hotter and usual rainfall:

• Temperatures increase as in Storyline 1. Precipitation remains as usual, following the seasonal cycle. with the strongest rains during the rainy season and nearly no rainfall between November and March. The north remains drier than in the southern regions. As temperatures become hotter throughout the seasonal cycle, evapotranspiration increases and can enhance water stress, particularly in the drier northern regions and in the months leading up to the rainy season.
• The last months of the dry season are likely to be extremely water stressed regardless of changes in rainfall. Despite changes in long-term average rainfall and temperature, inter annual variability of precipitation is projected to remain high. Therefore, both droughts during cycles of unusually dry seasons and extreme rainfall and floods during wetter wet seasons should be anticipated.    

Niger experiences various extreme weather and climate events, with floods and drought being the most severe. In the past two decades, Niger has experienced one drought every three years and one flood per year (Gao & Mills, 2021). Particularly in the recent 20 years a single drought affected between one and nine million people and a single flood affected several thousand people. In 2022, floods affected more than 365,000 people, with Zinder and Maradi the worst affected regions. 

Storyline 1: Hotter, wetter, more extreme rainfall 

• As global temperatures continue to increase, temperatures across Niger also continue to increase, reaching 1.5°C warmer than recent temperatures and 2.5°C warmer than pre-industrial temperatures by 2050.
• As average temperatures increase, the number of very hot days above 35°C also increases, rising from the current average of around 70 days per year in the southern regions to around 130 days per year, and from the current average of around 130 days per year in the Agadez region to around 160 days per year
• Both average rainfall in the wet season and rainfall intensity (1 to 5 day extremes) gradually increase from the present to the 2050s, but wetter and drier seasons continue to occur due to natural regional climate variability. As average rainfall gradually increases, dry years will become less frequent but hotter with greater impacts on agriculture, livestock and water resources.
• Very wet seasons become even wetter; combined with increased rainfall intensity, this will lead to an increased risk of flooding in flood-prone areas. 

Storyline 2: Hotter, more extreme rainfall, more dry days 

• Temperature increases as described in Storyline 1. 
• Rainfall intensity (1 to 5 day extremes) gradually increases from the present to the 2050s, while the number of dry days during the rainy season also increases. Wetter and drier seasons continue to occur due to natural regional climate variability. As average temperatures gradually increase, dry years and dry periods during the summer months are also increasingly hot; this results in greater impacts on agriculture, livestock and water resources. Very wet seasons combined with increased rainfall intensity lead to an increased risk of flooding in flood-prone areas.

Nigeria is affected by different hazards, particularly intense flooding, storms and droughts (Table 1) that affect people and livelihoods. In recent decades, Nigeria has been particularly affected by devastating floods. The 2012 floods affected more than seven      million people and were accompanied by a storm that affected more than 15,000 people (Figure 1). The 2028 floods affected nearly two million people (World Bank, 2021).  This is in line with an observed increase in river flooding in the recent past (high confidence, IPCC, 2021). Although only one drought was reported in the international disaster database EM-DAT between 1980-2020, an increase in drying and agricultural and ecological droughts have been observed (medium confidence, IPCC, 2021). This highlights the need for systematic collection of impact data in the region, and does not indicate an absence of extreme weather events. 

Storyline 1 - Hotter and no rainfall change:

• In this storyline, mean and extreme temperatures will increase annually by around 1°C in      all regions      by 2050.      The strongest increase in temperature will occur      during the hottest months of March to May, with increases ranging from 1.2 °C to 1.6°C. Coastal regions will warm more slowly than central regions.
• The number of hot days above 35°C between March and May (MAM) will increase from 15-20 days in regions such as Benue, Nassarawa, Kogi, and Kwara to around 45 days in Benue, 47 in Kogi , 61 in Nasarawa and 64 in Kwara by 2050. The increase in the number of extreme hot days in the northern regions during MAM  is expected to rise from around 5-10 days to 78-88 days, indicating that extremely hot days will occur throughout the MAM season in the north. Extreme heat will affect people’s health and livelihoods, with more dry heat in northern parts and humid heat extremes in the southern parts.
• No changes in average rainfall are projected. Rainfall follows the seasonal cycle with drier conditions in the northern parts of the country and wetter conditions in the southern and coastal regions. Northern areas have a particularly high annual variation in rainfall, resulting in floods and droughts that affect people’s lives and livelihoods, infrastructure and agriculture.
• Only in the wet season is there a small increase in average precipitation across the country. The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation extremes increases, and pluvial flooding is likely to occur more often in the wet season. These flooding events are likely to have devastating impacts on people, nature and infrastructure. As the population grows, more people will be affected by floods.    

Storyline 2 - Hotter and drier:

• Mean and extreme temperatures are projected to increase throughout the year as in Storyline 1. Average rainfall decreases over the whole year, with the strongest decrease during the wet season between May and October.
• As the wettest season is expected to become drier, this will likely have a major      impact on rain-fed agriculture: less rainfall and higher temperature will increase water stress and will be associated with a decrease in crop production.
• The number of dry days is projected to increase on average by 10 days in the next 20-30 years, in particular between March-May, with the strongest increase by up to 20 days in the south western region. Thus, compound hot and dry events are likely to increase, associated with more and intense droughts and fire weather. Although total rainfall is projected to decrease, heavy precipitation extremes and pluvial flooding are likely to continue to occur due to natural variability and warming.   

Storyline 3 - Warmer and wetter: 

• Temperatures become warmer throughout the year across the country but less so than in Storyline 1. Average rainfall increases from the present through the 2050s. The strongest increase in rainfall is found in all regions during the wet season with an average regional increase of around 150mm.
• In northern regions, an increase of more than 100mm is projected to occur in     August, while in southern regions, the increase will occur in September. Overall, the northern regions such as Yobe, Jigawa, Kano and  Zamfara are projected to experience a stronger increase of rainfall between July and September than the southern regions.
• The increase in mean precipitation intensity is associated with an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation (1 to 5 day extremes) and increased pluvial flooding during the wet season. The coastal regions experience wetting throughout the year. Combined with a warmer climate, humid heat stress will likely increase during the hottest month before and after the rainy season in March and April and in November. 

Mali is at high risk of extreme heat, water scarcity and droughts as well as floods. More than six million people were affected by drought in 2020 and more than 3.5 million in 2011. These droughts have been associated with strong impacts on food security and increased levels of migration in the country. Floods occur regularly, impacting thousands of people at once. The most severe floods in recent decades occurred in 2007 and affected almost 90,000 people. In 2013, about 46,000 people were affected by floods. Although heat risk is high between May and September, no impacts have been reported in EM-DAT (World Bank, 2021c)

Storyline 1 - Hotter, wetter monsoon season:

• In this storyline, average temperatures increase between 1.5 and 2°C across the country in the next 20-30 years, with the strongest increases between April and June. Higher temperatures result in more frequent very hot days. The number of hot days above 40°C  is projected to increase by at least 31 days per year, so that at least one additional month will experience temperatures above 40°C, with strong regional differences.
• The hotter north becomes hotter and temperatures are projected to exceed 40°C during more than 170 days per year( around 5 months) in Tombouctou, Kidal, Gao by 2050 and around 120 days per year (around 4 months) in Mopti by 2050. The cooler north is getting hotter and the coldest region of Sikasso is projected to experience hot days above 40 °C  around 44 days per year (around 1.5 months) by 2050, and at least 88 days per year (around 3 months) in Segou, Koulikoro and Kayes, by 2050.
• In this storyline, average rainfall increases slightly in the rainy season. In the drier northern regions of Tombouctou and Kidal, there is an increase of around 5mm (around 20 per cent ), particularly at the peak of the rainy season in August and September. In Gao, rainfall increase is projected between July and September by around 10mm to 50mm at the peak in August. In Mpoti, Segou, Sikasso, Koulikoro     and Kayes, rainfall is projected to increase between June and October by 2050, with the strongest increase in September, from around 20mm to around 40mm in Sikasso.
• This indicates a shift in the peak of the monsoon towards later months. September rainfall is projected to reach 80mm in Mopti, 120mm in Segou, 140mm in Koulikoro, 150mm in Kayes and 220mm in Sikasso by 2050. This will be associated with more extreme precipitation, as well as flooding in flood-prone areas.
• Regardless of changes in long-term average rainfall and temperature, inter annual variability in precipitation is projected to remain high. Therefore, both droughts during cycles of unusually dry seasons and floods during wetter wet seasons should be anticipated. Rising temperatures will lead to increased heat stress for people and nature. Water stress will also increase outside the rainy season as higher temperatures increase evapotranspiration, particularly in the drier northern regions.
• In the north, humid heat stress is also likely to increase during the rainy season as hot temperatures coincide with increased rainfall.  

Storyline 2 - Hotter, rainfalls as usual:

• Temperatures increase as in Storyline 1. In this storyline, average rainfall remains      as usual. During the rainy season —between June and October —the dry regions (Kidal, Tombouctou and Gao) in the north remain dry and the wetter regions in the south remain wet.
• As temperatures become hotter throughout the seasonal cycle, evapotranspiration increases and can enhance water stress, particularly in the drier northern regions and in the months leading up to the rainy season.
• The last months of the dry season are likely to become extremely water stressed, regardless of changes in rainfall. Water scarcity is likely to increase, in particular in the very dry north. Concurrent hot and dry extremes are likely to increase, which can lead to droughts. Furthermore, inter annual variability in precipitation is projected to remain high.
• Ongoing cycles of unusually dry seasons and droughts, as well as wet seasons leading to flooding in flood-prone areas, should be anticipated. 

The Central African Republic is frequently affected by floods (flash floods and river floods), convective storms, wildfires, and droughts (World Bank, 2021a). These events lead to substantial damage at regional and local levels. Tens of thousands of people have been affected by floods in recent decades, including      around 45,000 people in 2019.  

Storyline 1 - Hotter and wetter end of rainy season: 

• In this storyline, average temperatures will increase by around 1.2°C in the next 20-30 years compared to the recent past (1995–2014), leading to average temperatures in the hotter north (Vakaga, Bamingui-Bangoran) of around 29°C, average temperature of around 28°C in the central regions, average temperatures of around 27°C in the eastern regions, and average temperatures of around 26°C in the colder south western regions.
• The north and northwestern regions will experience more hot days above 40°C in future. The hot Vakaga will experience around 20 additional hot days above 40°C in the next 20-30 years. Bamingui-Bangoran will experience around 15 additional hot days above 40°C, and Nana-Gribiz and Ouham around ten additional hot days above 40°C.
• In the rest of the country, maximum temperatures are lower, but a sharp increase in hot days above 35°C is projected, with at least 20 additional hot days by 2050. Rainfall mainly follows the seasonal cycle with low precipitation during the dry season from November to February. However, rainfall is increasing during the wet season, particularly from August to October by a maximum of 10 per cent.
• The strongest increase will occur in the drier north. The rainy season will be accompanied by more heavy precipitation events that lead to pluvial flooding. Riverine flooding will also increase. 

Storyline 2 - Hotter and no change in precipitation:

• Temperatures increase as in Storyline 1. In this storyline, precipitation follows the seasonal cycle with little or no precipitation during the dry season and the highest precipitation during the wet season in August and September. 
• The average total annual rainfall does not change, but rainfall variability remains high, leading to the occurrence of extreme precipitation, floods and droughts. 
• The combination of increasing temperatures and increased evaporation results in more intense and impactful droughts and dry periods. 

The Democratic Republic of Congo is primarily confronted with natural hazards such as floods and droughts (World Bank, 2021c). Climate variability and change are threat multipliers, considering current vulnerabilities and the prevailing challenges of inadequate access to food and persistent high levels of poverty. The predominant concern lies in food security, given that a significant portion of the nation's farming depends heavily on rainfall and is managed by small-scale farmers (World Bank, 2021e).

Storyline 1 - Hotter and wetter rainy season:

• In this storyline, mean and extreme temperatures increase around 1°C in the next 20-30 years compared to the recent past (1995-2014). In the eastern regions of Nord-Kivu and Sud-Kivu, projected changes in hot days above 35°C are smaller because maximum temperatures are also lower. The number of hot days above 35°C increases by around ten days in Sud-Kivu in the next 20-30 years compared to the recent past (1995-2014), with seven additional hot days during the hottest months of June, July and August. In Nord-Kivu, only three additional hot days per year above 35°C are projected to occur in the next 20-30 years, particularly in the hottest season between February and April.
• In the northern regions (Equateur, Orientale), the strongest increase of maximum temperature is expected around July (+1.5°C), whereas in the southern and central regions, the greatest increases are projected around September and October.
• The annual number of hot days above 35°C is projected to increase by around 20 days in the northern regions (Equateur, Orientale) and by around 30 days in the central and southern regions in the next 20-30 years compared to the recent past (1995-2014). This will likely be associated with an increase in the duration and intensity of heat waves. Precipitation will increase in particular during the wet season.
• In the northern regions (Equateur, Orientale), which are dominated by tropical forests, the second rainy season from September to December will experience more rainfall. On average, an increase of around 10 per cent is projected for 2050 compared to the recent past (1995-2014).  Katanga, in the south, has only one rainy season, which tends to start later, resulting in lower precipitation in September and October and more rainfall between November and April (around 5 per cent).
• The eastern region of Sud-Kivu and Nord-Kivu will receive around 10 per cent      more rainfall between November to February, which implies an increase in      rainfall at the end of the second rainy season. The central regions (Maniema, Kasai oriental, Kasai Occidental, Bandundun and Bas-Congo) will experience more than 10 per cent additional rainfall between October and April.
• The prolonged rainy season combined with higher temperatures and atmospheric moisture will lead to sharp increases in extreme rainfall intensity, resulting in an     increase in pluvial flooding and landslides.
• As rainfall variability is also projected to increase, droughts continue to occur. The combination of increasing temperatures and increased evaporation result in more intense and impactful droughts and dry periods.
• The simultaneous increase in temperature and precipitation is also likely to lead to more humid heat extremes at the beginning and the end of the rainy season(s).  

 Storyline 2 - Hotter and no change in rainfall:

• Temperatures increase similarly to Storyline 1 above. In this storyline, there are no changes in annual rainfall.  The rainy and dry seasons continue to follow the seasonal cycle. The wetter northern regions (Equateur and Orientale) and eastern regions (Nord-Kivu and Sud-Kivu) continue to experience high precipitation during both      rainy seasons from March to May and September to December.
• The central and southern regions receive the highest amounts of rainfall during the rainy season between December and February. However, as rainfall variability increases, there will be some years that are wetter than usual and some years that are drier than usual, associated with extreme precipitation.
• Depending on the year, this will lead to flooding in some years and droughts in others. The increase in temperature will increase evaporation, leading to increased humid heat stress, particularly at the beginning and the end of the rainy season. 

Chad experiences various extreme weather and climate events, the main ones being floods and drought (World Bank, 2021). Conflict adds to the complexity of these extreme events. Between June and August 2022, the country experienced major floods, with over 750,000 people affected in the capital N’Djamena and surrounding provinces, leading to high risk of water borne diseases (IFRC 2022a, Relief Web, 2023).  

Storyline 1 - Hotter, wetter, more extreme rainfall:

• As global temperatures continue to increase, temperatures in Chad will continue to increase, reaching 1.5°C warmer than recent temperatures and 2.5°C warmer than pre-industrial temperatures by 2050. As average temperatures increase, the number of very hot days above 35°C also increases, rising from the current average of around 170 days a year in the southern regions to as many as 240 days per year, and the current average of around 210 days per year in the northern regions (except the higher altitude and cooler Tibesti region) to as many as 250 days per year.
• Both average wet season rainfall and rainfall intensity (1 to 5 day extremes) gradually increase from the present to the 2050s, but wetter and drier seasons continue to occur due to natural regional climate variability.
• As average rainfall gradually increases, dry years, while less frequent, are also increasingly hot, resulting in more intense hydrological and agricultural droughts; this results in greater impacts on agriculture, livestock and water resources.
• Rising temperatures increase evaporation, so the potential benefits of increased rainfall may be limited. Very wet seasons become even wetter; combined with increased rainfall intensity, this will lead to an increased risk of flooding in flood-     prone areas. 

Storyline 2 - Hotter, more extreme rainfall, more dry days:

• Temperature increases as described in Storyline 1. Rainfall intensity (1 to 5 day extremes) gradually increases from the present to the 2050s, while the number of dry days during the rainy season also increases.
• Wetter and drier seasons continue to occur due to natural regional climate variability.
• As average temperatures gradually increase, dry years and dry periods during the summer months are also becoming hotter, resulting in more intense hydrological and agricultural droughts; this results in greater negative impacts on agriculture, livestock and water resources. Increased rainfall intensity leads to an increased risk of flooding in flood-prone areas. 

Mozambique has experienced various climate hazards in recent decades, particularly tropical cyclones, floods, storms (tropical cyclones) and droughts. Cyclones are often associated with subsequent flooding and devastating impacts. The cyclone season in the Western Indian Ocean is from November to April. Mozambique is hit by an average of 3-4 tropical cyclones a year, with significant impacts on lives, livelihoods and infrastructure.  In 2019, for example, Cyclone Dineo destroyed approximately 30,000 hectares of crops and displaced more than 100,000 people in the south (  USAID 2018  ). In total, more than 500,000 people were affected. In March and April 2019, cyclones Idai and Kenneth left over 2.2 million people in need of urgent assistance and killed hundreds (  Reliefweb.org  ). Cyclone Idai alone affected more than 1.5 million people. The effects of Idai and Kenneth are long lasting; in its sixth operations update (September 2020), the IFRC calculated that its response efforts had assisted more than 407,372 people ( IFRC 2020b ). 

Storyline 1 - Hotter and Drier: 

• In this storyline, temperatures continue to increase through the next 15 to 20 years, with 2050 reaching 2°C warmer than the recent past. As average temperatures increase, the number of very hot days above 35°C also increases, rising from the current average of around 56 days a year in the Gaza region to around 84 days per year, and the current average of around 18 days per year in the Cabo Delgado region to around 43 days per year. Coupled with rainfall variability, most of the northern regions are likely to experience hotter and drier days by 2050, especially during the JJA season.
• Both average wet season rainfall and rainfall intensity (1 to 5 day extremes) gradually increase from the present to the 2050s, but wetter and drier seasons continue to occur due to natural regional climate variability. As average rainfall gradually increases, dry years, while less frequent, are also increasingly hot; this results in greater impacts on agriculture, livestock and water resources.
• Very wet seasons become even wetter and, combined with increased rainfall intensity, leads to an increased risk of flooding in flood-prone areas. Tropical cyclones continue to be a key hazard across the country. The intensity of strong tropical cyclones increases through the 2050s, causing ongoing flooding and damage from strong winds. 

Storyline 2 - Hotter and Wetter and more tropical cyclones:

• Temperature increases as described in Storyline 1. Tropical cyclones continue to be a key hazard across the country. The intensity of strong tropical cyclones increases through the 2050s, causing ongoing flooding and damage from strong winds.
• Rainfall intensity (1 to 5 day extremes) gradually increases from the present through the 2050s while dry days during the rainy season also increase. Wetter and drier seasons continue to occur due to natural regional climate variability.
• As average temperatures gradually increase, dry years and dry periods during the summer months are also increasingly hot; this results in greater impacts on agriculture, livestock and water resources.
• Very wet seasons combined with increased rainfall intensity lead to an increased risk of flooding in flood- prone areas

Venezuela is vulnerable to several geological and hydrometeorological hazards, such as floods, landslides, cyclones and droughts (World Bank, 2021a). Flooding can be riverine, flash flood and coastal flooding. In 2022, floods affected populations across 17 states including Aragua, Barinas, Carabobo, Miranda and Lara, with more than 64,000 people affected  (IFRC, 2022a). 

Storyline 1 - Enhanced extremes: Hotter, more droughts, and more heavy rains:

• In this storyline, annual mean temperatures increase across the country around 1.3°C -1.4°C in the next 20-30 years compared to the recent past (1995-2014). Maximum temperatures will increase slightly more, between 1.3°C and 1.5°C in the next 20-30 years.
• The number of hot days above 35°C strongly increases, not only during the hottest months between February and May, but also during the second temperature peak between September and November. In particular, the central and western regions such as Anzoategui, Guarico, Cojedes, Portuguesa, Barinas, Apure and Monagas experience the largest increase, with between 20-30 additional hot days per year by 2050 compared to the recent past (1995-2014). For Guarico, this means around 115 hot days per year or almost a third of the year, while for Monagas, the number of hot days doubles to around 60 per year. In the coastal regions of Zulia and Falcon, an additional 15 days are projected, leading to more than 30 hot days per year.
• The mountainous regions in the east as well as the coastal regions of Miranda and Sucre experience only 1-5 more hot days per year as temperatures are generally lower. The increased number of hot days will be associated with longer and more intense heatwaves in the dry season.
• Annual mean precipitation only decreases slightly under this storyline; however, there will be both more dry spells and more heavy rains. The dry season becomes drier and heavy rainfall will increase in the rainy season between April and July.
• The heavy rains can be associated with pluvial flooding. The simultaneous increase in temperature and precipitation is also likely to lead to more humid heat extremes at the beginning and the end of the rainy season. The hotter and longer droughts will have impacts on water availability and agriculture.
• In addition, sea level rise will continue and will be associated with increased coastal flooding in low-lying areas and shoreline retreat along most sandy coasts.  

Storyline 2 - Warmer and drier:

• In this storyline, temperatures increase but less rapidly than in Storyline 1. Consequently, the number of hot days above 35°C is only increasing in the hottest regions, namely Anzoategui, Guarico, Cojedes, Portuguesa, Barinas, Apure and Monagas. These regions will experience between an additional 10-15 hot days per year by 2050 compared to the recent past (1995-2014).
• Annual precipitation decreases strongly, particularly at the end of the rainy season between July and December. The wet Amazonas region will experience the strongest drying between September and November, but also during the dry season (January to April). Strong drying at the end of the year is also expected in the coastal regions of Delta Amacuro and Monagas. 
• The decrease in precipitation will be associated with a sharp increase in the number and intensity of droughts. Furthermore, the decrease in precipitation at the end of the wet season will strongly affect agriculture.
• Increased temperatures will be associated with compound hot and dry events that can be associated with an increase in fire weather. Climate variability will remain high and will be associated with extreme rainfall and pluvial flooding, but less than in Storyline 1. 

We hope that this StoryMap demonstrates the value of striving for climate and conflict analyses that are multifaceted, multidisciplinary, and community-centred, but also the value of normalising the coexistence of diverse and sometimes potentially conflicting knowledge systems to advance understanding of how to better serve those on the frontlines of the climate crisis.

While we have shared examples of traditional knowledge against the backdrop of western science-driven climate storylines, trying to fit traditional knowledge into western paradigms is not our prescription.

While we have been interested here in traditional practices, knowledge and going beyond those that are related to "conservation", this quote is worth highlighting. In the broader climate and humanitarian space, making space for non-     western approaches, ideas and leaders — and to allow movement in directions that may feel uncomfortable for leaving behind the status quo  — is a practice that can and must be continuously implemented at individual, institutional, and systemic level.      .

Western-led science is valuable and will continue to be so. We are simply arguing for the     harmonious use of new knowledge and traditional knowledge at the heart of climate-informed community leadership, in all aspects of climate adaptation, disaster risk reduction and response, conflict resolution and environmental stewardship. By understanding which systems have historically been more dominant, and which have been more marginalised, we can strive to correct course.

May we all continue our trajectory towards deeper understanding, equality  and collective thriving,  with heightened curiosity and deep commitment to humanity. If you have additional examples of traditional knowledge that you would to share for inclusion here or in upcoming projects, please email us at   climatecentre@climatecentre.org  .