Wildfire Risk

Much of the County is designated as moderate to very-high wildfire risk by the state.

Wildfire risk in the County is projected to continue increasing through end-century. The northern and central areas of the County are expected to see the greatest increase in risk; up to a five-fold increase if climate change continues uncontrolled.

Certain populations in Santa Cruz County are more vulnerable to wildfire than others due to many factors including individual’s health, age and ability, societal disadvantages, access to health care, economic opportunity, education and other resources, access to basic needs, and exposure to environmental stressors. Areas in the County with high proportions of vulnerable populations are at high risk to wildfire impacts.

Vulnerable populations in Santa Cruz County that face disproportionate risk to wildfire include:

• Individuals with chronic health conditions or health-related sensitivities
• Individuals facing societal barriers
• Under-resourced individuals
• Individuals with high-outdoor exposure

Individuals with high-outdoor exposure may face high exposure to wildfire and may have limited access to shelter or do not have access to transportation to evacuate from smoke engulfed areas. Visitors may not have access to emergency public health warnings and may not know of appropriate evacuation routes or where to get emergency evacuation information in the event of a wildfire.

Under-resourced individuals may experience injuries or death from smoke inhalation or burns and are likely to experience financial burden associated with medical treatment. These individuals may have their belongings and homes damaged by a wildfire. If this occurs, under-resourced individuals are likely to suffer from the cost burden associated with losses or damage. Households without a computer or internet may not receive communications and evacuations to safely evacuate from hazard areas. Isolated individuals are vulnerable during wildfires because they no do have access to a vehicle to evacuate. Renters have limited control over home hardening and improvements that may protect against fire and smoke.

Individuals facing societal barriers are more likely to live in wildfire hazard areas and in housing with insufficient protection against wildfire. Linguistically isolated individuals may not be able to read wildfire or smoke advisory warnings or governmental guidance, potentially causing them to experience greater exposure to smoke and/or wildfire. Individuals in these groups may face systematic and/or cultural barriers to access resources to safely evacuate hazard areas. Individuals in these groups may also experience injuries or death from smoke inhalation or burns. Undocumented immigrants may not have access to medical services to treat injuries.

Individuals with chronic health conditions or health related sensitivities may experience injuries or death from smoke inhalation or burns. These populations are particularly at risk to respiratory health impacts associated with smoke inhalation of wildfire smoke pollutants. Individuals with disabilities, children, and seniors may have difficulty evacuating from wildfires, increasing the risk of health impacts from wildfire smoke inhalation or fire burns.

There are several critical facilities and infrastructure in the designated fire risk areas. Those critical facilities and infrastructure include highways, major roadways, schools, fire stations, sheriff stations, and medical facilities.

Wildfires may damage or destroy critical facilities, buildings, or infrastructure. There are several residential structures and critical facilities in Santa Cruz County located in fire risk areas that have high risk of damage during a wildfire. Wildfires may also cause damage or disrupt services including electricity, water, oil, and gas. Wildfires may place strain or inhibit fire and emergency service capacity.

Wildfire scars can be susceptible to elevated risk of debris flows and mudslides due to vegetation loss and soil exposure. During a series of heavy wind and rain events in January 2021 and October 2021, evacuation orders were issued for several areas in the CZU wildfire-affected communities of Ben Lomond, Boulder Creek, and Felton. The evacuation orders affected nearly 5,000 people (Williams 2021). Once the scarred areas are able to recover, the risk diminishes.

Several critical San Lorenzo Valley Water District assets and structures were destroyed, damaged, or contaminated, leading to service disruption to all customers in the District’s service area. The District’s customers went without water services for several weeks after critical water assets were initially damaged.

Over 70,000 residents were evacuated during the CZU Complex fire. Evacuations of certain vulnerable populations in the County proved logistically difficult. Additionally, evacuation protocols lacked a systematic approach to designating and aiding vulnerable populations, including disabled individuals, older adults, and those with chronic health conditions, during the evacuation process. Therefore, these population groups experienced heightened health and safety risks during the wildfire event.