2024 U.S. Spring Flood Outlook

As of the date of this assessment, minor flooding is ongoing over portions of the Ohio and Middle Mississippi Valleys. Minor to isolated moderate flooding is ongoing over some tributaries to the Lower Missouri River in Missouri and along the Gulf Coast and into the Southeast. Flooding in these areas is due to recent heavy rainfall. The outlook presented in this assessment is indicative of flood potential during the upcoming season, and not these ongoing events.

Currently, there are no areas expected to experience major flooding.

Heavy rainfall at any time can lead to flooding. Rainfall intensity and location can only be accurately forecast several days in the future; therefore, flood risk can change rapidly.

Moderate flooding is possible along several tributaries to the Missouri River in  eastern Kansas and central Missouri  this spring. Isolated minor flooding is expected on additional tributaries throughout this portion of the basin. Soil moisture values across the basin are below normal with areas of drought in place. Streamflow levels are near to below normal. Flooding in this region is mainly driven by springtime thunderstorm activity and spring flooding is typical in this area.

Moderate flooding is possible in  southeast Kansas  and  eastern Oklahoma  along portions of the Neosho and Poteau rivers this spring. Isolated minor flooding is expected on additional tributaries throughout this portion of the basin. Soil moisture values across the basin are near to below normal. Flooding in this region is mainly driven by springtime thunderstorm activity and spring flooding is typical in this area.

Minor to isolated moderate flooding is possible from  East Texas  to the  Carolinas  this spring. Drought conditions were present throughout much of the region during the fall and winter resulting in reduced soil moisture values. Recent precipitation has improved soil moisture overall, with current values near normal; however,  central Louisiana  and the  Delta region of the Lower Mississippi River Valley  remain generally below normal. Streamflow levels are mostly near normal; however, portions of the  Southeast  are above normal. Flooding in this region is driven by springtime thunderstorm activity and spring flooding is typical in this area.

Minor to isolated moderate flooding is possible along portions of the  Lower Illinois River and tributaries in Illinois  this spring. Soil moisture values are near to below normal due to periods of drought last summer and fall; however, recent snowmelt and rainfall have improved streamflow levels to near normal. Snow is not present in the basin, therefore any flooding in the basin will be solely dependent upon future precipitation through the spring.

Minor flooding is possible across much of the  combined Ohio, Cumberland, and Tennessee Valleys  this spring. Warm temperatures and below normal precipitation this winter led to minimal snowpack and ice throughout the  Ohio Basin . Soil moisture values are near to below normal throughout the region. Streamflow levels are generally near normal  south of the Ohio River  and in the  Tennessee and Cumberland Valleys , and near to below normal  north of the Ohio River.  Flooding in this region is mainly driven by springtime thunderstorm activity and spring flooding is typical in this area.

Minor flooding is possible across portions of  Virginia ,  Maryland ,  New Jersey ,  southern New York  and  New England  this spring. Areas including the  Adirondack Mountains  in northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and the  mountains of western Maine  will be vulnerable to flooding from steady snowmelt through the spring, particularly if heavy rainfall occurs in the next few weeks. Outside of these areas, little to no snowmelt is available for runoff. Streamflow levels and soil moisture values range from normal to above normal across the region. The potential for flooding due to ice jams is above normal across the  northern portion of Maine . Elsewhere, the threat for ice jam flooding has mostly passed.

Isolated minor flooding is possible in the  Humboldt River Basin of northern Nevada  this spring, with a potential for isolated minor flooding in the  Portneuf River Basin of southeast Idaho . The presence of above normal snowpack will increase flooding potential on additional tributaries in far  northern Nevada  and areas  south of the Snake River Plain in Idaho . Streamflow levels and soil moisture values range from near to above normal throughout these regions. Various factors such as persistent above-normal temperatures and rain-on-snow events will be significant factors in any potential flooding.

Water supply forecasts are produced by the River Forecast Centers in the  western United States . Forecasts are impacted by current hydrologic conditions including snowpack and soil moisture, along with weather forecasts and climate information. As conditions change, especially over the next couple months, water supply forecasts will be updated and available through  the Western Water Supply Forecasts  page.

At the request of national partners, including the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) continues its improved decision support services with the “Long-Range River Flood Risk” web page available at:  https://water.weather.gov/ahps/long_range.php . Here, stakeholders can access a single, nationally consistent map depicting the 3-month risk of minor, moderate, and major river flooding as shown in the map to the right. This risk information is based on NOAA’s Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) forecasts which are generated for approximately 2,600 river and stream forecast locations across the nation. With this capability, stakeholders can quickly view flood risk predicted to affect their specific area of concern. The Long-Range River Flood Risk augments the National Hydrologic Assessment by clearly and objectively communicating flood risk at the local level.

 Upper Mississippi River Region   and  Great Lakes Region  

  Ohio Region  and Tennessee Region  

  Missouri Region  

  Arkansas-White-Red Region  

  Lower Mississippi River Region  

  Texas-Gulf Region  

  South Atlantic-Gulf Region  

  New England Region  

  Mid Atlantic Region  

 Pacific Northwest Region  

 Great Basin Region  

 Souris-Red-Rainy Region  

Explore the map to see how reported spring flooding impacts from March 16th, 2023 to June 30th, 2023 aligned with NOAA's 2023 Spring Flood Outlook.

To see images of real flood impacts along the Upper Mississippi River from a flood event on April 25-26th, 2023 click below:

Click each camera icon to view photos. Additional images from this event can be found  here .

The figure below shows a comparison of the population at risk from flooding according to the 2023 Spring Flood Outlook forecast conditions and the reported spring flooding impacts.