The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
A study on the historical and political conflict associated with the GERD.
A study on the historical and political conflict associated with the GERD.
Original construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Oschtan, CC BY-SA 3.0 , via Wikimedia Commons
The GERD is an acronym that stands for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. This dam is located on the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia, just under 30 miles from the border with Sudan. Construction of the dam began in 2011 and is nearing completion in 2023.
Before the GERD construction (2009) vs Post GERD construction (2013)
Post GERD construction (2013) vs now (2022)
Digital Image of the GERD Resevoir Rasta55,CC BY-SA 1.0 , via Wikimedia Commons
The third filling of the GERD occurred on August 12, 2022. Currently it is close to a third of its total capacity, 22 billion cubic meters out of 74 billion cubic meters. The dam is now using two out of thirteen turbines for electricity production as of September sixteenth, generating 750 megawatts of electricity. Next filling planned to be next year (2023) unless interference occurs.
To the left is a digital image recreation of the GERD reservoir and dam. The reservoir now covers a massive amount of what was once dry land.
The most significant conflict around the GERD concerns Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan. Both downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan, fear that bringing the GERD online will significantly affect the current levels of downstream flow of the Nile. Further, these countries are concerned of the rate at which Ethiopia is filling their reservoir, which would also contribute to a shortage of downstream flow. These issues are of extreme concern for Egypt, who is highly dependent on the Nile River for most water access.
Egypt and Sudan claim rights to the Nile River as a result of older water treaties, however; Ethiopia was never included in the agreement of these treaties. While Egypt claims Ethiopia has violated these treaties, there is no one to enforce this policy for Ethiopia.
An academic journal article that uses a series of formulas to produce estimated values of Nile River shares and economic values for Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia under various scenarios.
From: Getachew Nigatu and Ariel Dinar. “Economic and hydrological impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Eastern Nile River Basin.” Environment and Development Economics, 21, (2016) pp 532-555 doi:10.1017/S1355770X15000352
No negotiations have been solidified. Egypt and Sudan threaten the possibility of military intervention... (as seen by military exercises map). Ethiopia continues with the filling of the reservoir and plans to start generating more electricity.
Joint Military Exercises performed by Egypt and Sudan
Negotiations on the GERD have stalled so much due to the political conflicts predominately between Ethiopia and Egypt, where Sudan is known to support Egypt's stance. Egypt and Sudan have tried endlessly to establish an agreement, but Ethiopia has been one to operate independently and remove themselves from negotiations.
It is possible for a reasonable agreement to be made between these three countries. There are possible benefits for both Sudan and Egypt from the GERD, but this is all reliant on the ability to compromise and reach an agreement.
Here is insight as to how the GERD can prove beneficial outside of Ethiopia...
Researchers ran simulations of specific cropping patterns, controlled irrigation, and regulated water flow from the GERD.
Results suggest that using these regulated flow techniques in conjunction with the cropping and irrigation requirements will increase Sudan's crop output, agricultural expansion, and overall value-added across the economy. In terms of quantitative results, Sudan's GDP could increase by 27-29 billion (US dollars) from their baseline over a period of 40 years (2020-2060).
If Sudan can establish an relationship with Ethiopia and employ these water flow techniques with the GERD in use, Sudan could see a positive effect on the economy. Overall, this is study suggests that Sudan has an economic incentive and can benefit from the dam.
This all goes to suggest that the GERD is not just a benefit for Ethiopia and a negative for all other parties involved. An established contract that controls the rate and levels of water flow from the GERD can reduce concerns from Sudan and Egypt about Nile River water flow. This study is just one examples to show how benefits can emerge for Sudan, an external party.
Study: Luckmann, Jonas, Mohammed Basheer, and Khalid Siddig. “Long-Term Economy-Wide Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Sudan.” Economic Research Forum no.1427 (2020).
Important: The GERD is a relatively recent dam only built within the last ten years. Much of the data on the outcomes of the GERD is projected data and created by predictive models. Further, the conflicts surrounding this dam are highly volatile and intended to continue in the future. It is difficult to draw one concrete conclusion because the conflicts of GERD continue to be an ever-changing situation in present time.
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Luckmann, Jonas, Mohammed Basheer, and Khalid Siddig. “Long-Term Economy-Wide Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Sudan.” Economic Research Forum no.1427 (2020).
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