The Lake Breeze Newsletter

Each year, the scientists at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issue a winter seasonal outlook for the entire country. This involves careful consideration of multiple sets of climate model ensembles run across the globe, analysis of the current and projected state of factors such as drought, groundwater, ice pack, and snow cover, and scrutiny of the state of the world’s oceans, among many other factors. In particular, most years’ outlooks tend to feature abundant examination of the state of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and, in particular, the state of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

For the winter of 2022-2023 all signs point to ENSO at least starting off the winter in a La Nina status. This simply means that the equatorial sea surface temperatures in the Pacific are projected to be colder than normal. The CPC has had a La Nina Advisory out for this eventuality this winter for quite some time, and they are now projecting a 75 percent chance of La Nina in the December through February time frame. This would seem to lead to a fairly straightforward winter outlook dominated by the influence of La Nina, but there is a bit of a wrinkle this year.

The majority of the global climate models suggest the influence of La Nina will wane during the latter half of the winter, and in fact, there is now a majority that forecast a return to ENSO-neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean in the February through April 2023 time frame. This would indicate that the latter portion of the winter could stray from heavy La Nina dependency.

You may be asking yourself, “But what does this all mean?” Well, La Nina lends itself to a few fairly reliable climate eventualities over the lower 48. These eventualities tend to be very highly correlated with La Nina in the western US and slightly less in the eastern US, however correlations even in the east are still fairly reliable. These conditions are driven by a displacement of the polar jet stream that usually suggests a deep southward dive into the Pacific Northwest and Upper Midwest and a Pacific storm track that favors enhanced precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, as well. With the storm track displaced to the north, the entire southern portion of the country usually ends up both drier and warmer than normal. Further, as the eastward influence of cold air intruding into the Upper Midwest starts to wane in the Great Lakes, a storm track through the Great Lakes is favored with above normal precipitation.

As La Nina seems likely to start to ebb toward the end of the winter, its influence will likely start to wane later in the season. This seems to be reflected in the CPC outlook for the winter that suggests colder than normal temperatures will extend into the western Great Lakes and could mean a bit colder end to the winter a bit farther east into the eastern Great Lakes than in a typical La Nina. It also features a very La Nina-esque projection of above normal precipitation through the heart of the Great Lakes region.

For us locally, the combination of a waning La Nina on top of the CPC’s three month long seasonal outlook may tend to lend itself to a warmer start to the winter that transitions colder as the influence of La Nina lessens. This may lead to a tendency for more large scale snow toward the latter portion of the winter, as well. However, as a whole, when averaging out a warmer start and colder end, this results in a near normal winter. Precipitation seems likely to trend above normal, however lake effect is always a wild card in our area. It only takes a few cold shots of air across the Great Lakes to result in abundant snow locally, so it all depends where these bands focus as to whether we end up with a snowier than normal winter or not. Time will tell.

Regardless of the severity of the winter as a whole, we in our part of the country know we are quite likely to be affected by a few bouts of severe winter weather over the course of the season. With this in mind, each year the National Weather Service (NWS) recognizes Winter Weather Awareness Week (WWAW) to focus on specific winter threats and safety messaging. This year, WWAW was from October 30 to November 5. Each day during the week, the NWS sent out multiple social media posts and public information statements revolving around topics like ice, blowing snow, high winds, extreme cold, as well as gave safety information that helped to mitigate the risks posed from winter weather. If you aren’t already, follow us on Facebook at US National Weather Service Buffalo NY or Twitter @NWSBuffalo to look back at all of these informative posts.

In addition this winter, with the theme of safety in mind, many NWS offices in the northeastern US will be recognizing Snow Squall Safety Day on November 21. Our Science and Operations Officer has an entire piece in this month’s newsletter featuring a discussion on these potentially deadly events during the winter. Considering the traffic snarls and fatal crashes that can result from them, these NWS offices in the northeastern US have teamed up to develop safety outreach information specifically for this wintertime threat that we will all simultaneously share with you via our Facebook and Twitter feeds on that date.

Wendell Jackson was born and raised in Detroit, MI. In the early 1980s, he joined the US Army as an explosives expert and was one of the first Units sent to Fort Drum after it was reactivated as an army fort. After about six and a half years with the US Army, Wendell got a job as an electrician at the Boise Cascade Paper Mill in Beaver Falls, NY. Around this time, Wendell began taking weather observations for the NWS as well as the Hudson River and Black River Regulating District at the paper mill. The paper mill was founded by J.P. Lewis, a local entrepreneur. In the early days of this mill, workers floated logs down the Beaver River to feed the mill. The paper mill has gone through several owners over the years and is now owned by Alkegen. In their Beaver Falls plant, they make a specialized paper that is cut into gaskets for the automotive industry. These paper gaskets can be found in many Ford, GM, and, Chrysler vehicles.

Wendell lives in nearby Lowville, NY, and is a very talented photographer. He specializes in portrait photography, doing a lot of photo shoots for senior pictures, etc. Wendall also creates stained glass windows. Presently, he is working on highly detailed stained glass windows for the American Legion in Lowville. Wendell also has his pilot's license and flies drones, taking aerial photos of the North Country.

Wendall enjoys living in the North Country. Lowville is a small but tight knit community, full of a lot of very kind people. Neighbors are always looking out for you in Lowville. If they see you by the side of the road, they will not hesitate to pull over to help. Wendell still regularly travels home to see his mother, who lives about an hour north of Toledo in southern Michigan. She is in her 80s but is very active and still working as a nurse!

Lewis County gets its fair share of winter storms. One of the most memorable weather events for Wendell was the ice storm of January 1998. Ice accumulations of an inch to an inch and a half devastated parts of Lewis and Jefferson Counties. Many trees were downed and powerlines were knocked out in the storm. Wendell recalls that about halfway between Lowville and Beaver Falls, there was a very distinct cutoff of the ice storm damage. Ice brought trees and powerlines down on one side of the road, and they were fine on the other.

I became interested in meteorology while I was in elementary school. My interest in meteorology mainly centered on winter weather. However, I do like the occasional thunderstorm. My main staple for weather information came from watching the local news stations in and around the Washington D.C. area. After school, I would watch multiple stations and keep track of any potential snow storms. My parents noticed this interest and gave me my first weather instrument kit when I was in the fifth grade. This allowed me to track the weather by taking daily measurements of precipitation, temperature, humidity, and pressure. It became a passion of mine which I still do to this very day.   

I started by attending Frederick Community College in Frederick MD, taking the basic education requirement before transferring to Utah State University in Provo, UT. I obtained my Associate of Science with an emphasis in Meteorology. After that, I went on to the University of Utah where I would earn a Bachelor of Atmospheric Science (Meteorology). Upon graduation in 2006, I accepted an entry level position at Western Weather Group in Chico, CA. This private weather firm specialized in tailored forecasts to various agricultural groups and state agencies. After a short time there, I was fortunate enough to gain the experience necessary to be offered a position with the Department of the Army at Dugway Proving Ground in 2007. This was an amazing job opportunity which allowed for further growth as a meteorologist gaining valuable experience both professionally and personally. After four years at Dugway, I was blessed with the opportunity to work for the National Weather Service in Buffalo, NY in 2010.  It was a dream come true to work in a winter weather-focused office and I have been here ever since. 

I enjoy the challenge of forecasting in the Great Lakes region. Weather forecasting in this area keeps you on your toes and can be very humbling at times.  

The event that cemented my love of (winter) weather goes back to the March 1993 storm coined "Storm of the Century." In true fashion, I had my weather instrumentation ready for this event. The first flake fell around midnight, and I was there to record it. When all was said and done, over 30 inches fell at our farm in Thurmont, MD.

 I am an avid bow hunter. In the fall and winter, I spend most of my time in the woods enjoying Mother Nature and all that western New York has to offer. 

If you are contemplating a career in meteorology, take the time to sharpen your writing and math skills in school. Also, diversify your education and carefully plan your classes you take while in school. Furthermore, take every opportunity to volunteer where you can and learn about the different avenues that a meteorology degree can offer. If your passion is to work for the National Weather Service, volunteer at your local office and get job experience while in school.

A tornado touched down in Wyoming County at approximately 10:40 AM EDT on July 28, 2022.  The initial damage and touchdown was in the town of Java just southwest of the intersection of NY Route 78 and Chaffee Rd.  The tornado moved along an east-northeast path near NY Route 78 for approximately 10 miles before dissipating in the western portion of the Town of Gainesville just west of NY Route 19 at about 10:55 AM EDT.  The tornado was on the ground for approximately 15 minutes.

The tornado reached a maximum intensity of EF-2 with winds of 115 mph.  The maximum path width was about 500 yards.  The majority of the EF-2 rated damage was along the first two miles of the tornado path.  This was also the portion of the track with the most consistent and contiguous damage.  In this portion of the track, the tornado did significant damage to a barn.  The older portion of the barn saw its concrete block foundation topped, and the structure itself moved about 25 feet.  The newer portion of the barn was entirely destroyed.  Multiple hard and softwood trees were uprooted or saw their trunks sheared off as the tornado tracked along NY Route 78 until it got to about Pleasant Valley Rd.

Damage became all EF-1 or lower rated to the east of Pleasant Valley Rd through Hermitage.  This included a few uprooted softwood trees and some minor wall damage to a structure on Shaw Rd.

As the tornado crossed from the Town of Wethersfield and into the western portion of the Town of Gainesville, damage became much less continuous, likely indicative of a discontinuous path of the tornado.  All damage on this eastern extent of the path was minor tree damage and rated EF-0 before damage ceased about one mile west of NY Route 19.

The National Weather Service would like to extend our thanks to the Wyoming County Office of Emergency Services, Wyoming County Sheriff's Office, and the New York State Police for their assistance on the storm survey.

Every year, the National Weather Service welcomes student volunteers into their offices. Students can gain experience by working with meteorologists and by observing the forecast process. The volunteer program also gives students a sense of what a career in operational meteorology would look like. The program includes a mentorship aspect where students work closely with one or multiple meteorologists on a local research project. This is a win-win for the student and the local NWS office.

Unfortunately, the student volunteer program at NWS Buffalo had to change due to the recent pandemic affecting all aspects of day-to-day life. The last two summers have featured a virtual student volunteer program where students worked from home or school and virtually met with meteorologists at the office. We used virtual meeting software for video conferences, meetings, and general communication to make up for the missing hands-on experience. This included virtual meetings with the office staff to discuss office programs, personal educational, and career backgrounds. The move to virtual learning gave students the opportunity to virtually meet with NWS employees across the country: in different forecast offices and in national centers. This gave students an idea of what work would be like outside of western and north central NY and of the different paths they can take to get to their desired office/position within the NWS. 

This past summer’s program did end on a more positive note when the students had the option to finally visit the office. David, a local from western NY and meteorology student at SUNY Albany, visited the office in early August 2022. He was the first person to visit the NWS Buffalo office since the start of the pandemic. Meteorologists were looking forward to finally allowing visitors back into the office, and it allowed David to see the office and things we do. David and another student, Cameron, worked on a project that gathered information from past severe weather events to help make a severe weather archive page, similar to the public web page for lake effect snow events. Cameron started in late winter 2022 and volunteered through the summer. His first project was an aviation weather project. He worked with the local aviation team on low visibility events at Watertown Airport (KART). Unfortunately, Cameron was not able to make it into the office before he headed back to Penn State University.  Our third student volunteer, Erica, goes to a local high school. She virtually met many NWS employees around the country and attended many NWS familiarization webinars. Like David, she was able to visit the office and shadow a forecaster for a few hours. She was especially lucky as active weather was going on across the region so she was able to see NWS forecasters issue a Severe Thunderstorm Warning. Erica developed a useful tool for forecasters to share historical weather facts which we hope to use soon and share on social media. Thank you to all the student volunteers this year. We wish you the very best.

Although the volunteer program is our primary means for student engagement with the NWS Buffalo office, there are other programs available. The most common form is a job shadow.  Before the pandemic, students shadowed forecasters for about two hours and were able to see how our office functions. During the pandemic, job shadows were held through virtual meetings. These generally lasted an hour with two forecasters able to provide a background about the NWS and answer questions about job opportunities.  While students in our virtual job shadow program were not able to see the office in person, we were able to increase the number of job shadows overall.   

The last option for students is a paid program, typically through an undergraduate scholarship. While available across the NWS each year, our office usually works with a scholarship-based student or two every three to five years. These highly sought after positions are only available to top-notch students.  Here at Buffalo, we’ve worked with students who’ve received a Hollings Scholarship through NOAA. These students work a fully paid 40 hour week, often for a 10 week period in the summer, then continue their experience for another year.  Some other student programs are the Pathways Program and the NOAA Lapenta Internship program offered at other parts of the NWS.  For more information on student opportunities in the NWS, please see this  StoryMap .

Nearly every student we’ve worked with, from job shadows to volunteer students to scholarship recipients, has shown tremendous talent. We’ve even hired a few! It’s always a thrill to see the next generation of meteorologists looking forward to their future career. For more information on our local program, please visit https://www.weather.gov/buf/Students

What’s up with the new snow squall warnings that have been showing up on your phones during the winter? We live in the lake effect snow belts, and we always get snow squalls, right? Well, that may be true, but studies have shown that some of the worst multi-car, multi-fatality snow-related accidents occur with fast moving narrow bands, many of which last only 15-30 minutes before moving on. These bands are often associated with arctic cold fronts with dramatic temperature drops behind them, resulting in brief and often unexpected whiteouts along with flash freezes on roadways. In past instances, there may not have been any NWS snow-based advisories or warnings in effect with these types of events, as those are typically primarily based on snow amounts over longer periods of time. To make matters worse, arctic boundaries are typically quite shallow, meaning that our radar network can easily skim over the tops of these events when they fall between NWS radars. This leaves drivers unaware of these fast moving bands, as most of us tend to focus on snow amounts, snow cover, and radar returns as the main determining factor on whether it's safe to go for a drive during winter.  

The NWS Snow Squall Warning (SQW) program rolled out in 2018 and is now part of the standard suite of official NWS warnings.  Meanwhile, the program developed alongside the rapid expansion of cell phones and a cellphone-enabled warning program called Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA), which includes Amber Alerts and other non-weather related emergencies. Due to the significant loss of life and property associated with these non-lake effect snow squalls, the SQW was wrapped into the WEA program. One of the problems with this was the fact that the SQW didn’t have much impact on anyone who wasn’t driving, causing unnecessary alerting on users phones. 

This year, we are changing the program. As new software is implemented across the country, the SQW program will become two-tiered. We’ll still issue SQWs for arctic boundaries that are associated with snow squalls, but we’ll reserve the WEA alerts only for the most significant events. This will include factoring societal factors such as time of day and traffic volume. Slower moving lake effect snow squalls however, will be covered by Lake Effect Snow Warnings and other related products.

“I bet we had at least a foot!” “I think they had four feet on the Tug with that one!” “There is no way they had that much snow! It was just raining at my house!” Do these statements sound familiar? Have you ever had a friendly back and forth discussion about a bigger lake effect snow event in the past, and you just wish you had a way to see what really happened (eg. prove your point)? Well, do we have a resource for you! Our lake effect snow event archive page is located at www.weather.gov/buf. Just cursor over the "Climate and Past Weather" heading (above the legend of the hazard map) and select "Lake Effect Page." 

From this page, you can go back many years to see the bigger lake effect episodes from each winter season. Note this page does not include listings of our large widespread system (synoptic) snow events. The archive extends back to the mid 1990s. When you select an event you will get a wealth of information including, snow reports with highest reported amounts off Lake Erie and Ontario, a written summary of the event, radar imagery, and even weather charts from the surface to 500mb (15-20 kft above the surface). This archive is a great resource to look back at past lake effect events that have impacted areas both off Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, and you can also see how active the winter season was in terms of how many lake effect episodes are listed. 

Using the archive, we can look back at the last winter (2021-2022) and see that it was a quiet season with only six lake effect snow events. The greatest snowfall off Lake Erie occurred January 5th to January 6th when 18.6 inches of snow fell at the Buffalo Airport. The most snow off Lake Ontario occurred a few days later from January 10th to January 11th when 30 inches of snow fell 4SE of Redfield on the Tug Hill Plateau. This information is very easy to find using the Lake Effect Snow archive page. We encourage you to try it out, and be on the lookout as we start to add events through this winter.

This spring and summer saw a near average amount of severe weather across western and north central New York.  The National Weather Service in Buffalo issued 92 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings through mid-October this year, which is just below the 20 year average of 104. We received nearly 180 reports of severe weather, such as wind damage and large hail.  Many of these reports came from our trained SKYWARN spotters! There have been two confirmed tornadoes so far in 2022.  The first was a brief, weak EF-0 tornado in Alexander (Genesee County) on April 25th, and the second, more impressive EF-2 tornado was in southern Wyoming County on July 28th.  More information on that tornado can be found in an article in this newsletter.  

Severe weather is most common from spring through early fall, but it can happen any time of year, so don’t let your guard down even in winter!  We are also entering our season of strong non-thunderstorm winds, produced by strong low pressure systems moving through the Great Lakes region. With this in mind, you should still be prepared for the possibility of dangerous winds and power outages. 

Our attention is starting to turn toward impending winter weather as memories of summer warmth and thunderstorms fade.  Reports of snow and ice from volunteer spotters play a critical role in the ability of the National Weather Service to forecast and convey the impacts of winter storms. The best method to measure snow is to use a snow board.  This can be any board approximately 2 feet x 2 feet.  The board needs to be white, or another light color, so it does not absorb energy from the sun and melt the snow. Place the snow board clear of tall objects such as your house, trees, and fences. Mark the snow board with a pole so you can find it after it snows!  Once it snows, use a ruler to measure the snow on the board to the nearest tenth of an inch.  Measure as soon as you can following the snowfall to avoid melting, drifting, and excessive settling. Clean the snow off the board after measuring to prepare for the next snowfall.  If your snow board becomes affected by drifting or is blown bare, take several measurements at different locations and compute an average.  

We are offering seven winter weather SKYWARN spotter training sessions this fall, covering topics including snowstorms, lake effect snow, measuring snow, reporting to the National Weather Service, and winter weather safety.  We have planned four virtual sessions online and three in-person sessions.  The in-person training this fall will focus on our two main population centers (Buffalo and Rochester) and the lake effect snow belt east of Lake Erie.  For more information and a complete list of training dates and locations, see our Skywarn website at:  https://www.weather.gov/buf/Skywarn