Teacher Workforce: Policy Makers' Workbook
Session Goals
- Understand the supply of teachers across the county and in your state
- Understand the future demand for teachers across the country and in your state
- Understand the implications of teacher supply and demand imbalances
- Discuss possible solutions to address imbalances
Introduction
How does the rate of new teachers exiting Teacher Preparation Programs compare to the expected number of open teaching positions? From where do new teachers receive their training? What percent of new teachers come from alternative Teacher Preparation Programs?
Teacher Supply and Demand
Navigating Maps
Clicking the arrows at the top right of any map will enlarge the map to full screen. You can navigate the map using the + (plus) and – (minus) signs to zoom in or out. You can search for a particular location by clicking on the magnifying glass at top left and typing in the town and state. The legend is available at bottom left. Clicking on a district or charter school will bring up a pop-up window with additional information for the district and a link to the district's data sheet.
Departures
The map shows the projected departure rates for teachers over the next 10 years. This data, based on BLS models, indicate a national departure rate for teachers of 7.2 percent with 3.5 percent being due to workforce exits and 3.7 percent due to occupational transfers. Washington state is expected to have the highest predicted teacher exit rate with 24 percent of teachers leaving the occupation through either exiting the workforce or transferring to a different occupation. Next-door neighbor Oregon has the lowest projected departure rate of 3 percent.
The map on the left of the slider shows the percentage of teachers who are expected to exit the workforce – usually via retirement – per year over the next 10 years while the map on the right shows the percentage of teachers expected to transfer out of teaching to a new profession. Please note Arizona, Maine, Nevada, Oklahoma, Oregon, and Washington reported only total departures; therefore, estimates of exits and departures in those states were produced by dividing estimated total departures by two.
Teacher Preparation Programs
Click here for a map that will display the state’s TPP trend data over time.
Click here for a map that will display the number of TPP completers by program type for each state.
National data show between 25 and 40 percent of new hires are former teachers returning to the occupation after an absence of at least one year. 1
Impact of Shortfalls
When we calculate supply as TPP completers plus an estimate for former teachers reentering the teacher workforce, 16 states plus Washington, D.C. have 95 percent or more of expected demand met by the supply of available certified teachers. Those states show as neutral or blue on the map. The remaining states will have a shortfall of 10 to 50 percent of their expected annual demand based on BLS estimates. These numbers assume the trend of decreasing enrollment and completion in TPPs ends and output of certified teachers levels off. If we continue to see fewer future teachers completing TPPs, the shortage will become more acute.
Even if we use NCES estimates that hold the total number of teachers steady, the supply of teachers in 34 states will still likely fall short of the demand needed to replace teachers exiting the workforce and changing occupations.