The Future of Transit in Northeastern Illinois

The benefits of funding our regional transit and the risks of the funding shortfall.

The Opportunity

Imagine Our Region's Economic Assets All Connected by Rapid and High-Frequency Transit

Our region is fortunate to have the third-largest transit network in the country, which enhances our competitiveness and provides residents and visitors to economic, educational, cultural, and other opportunities. This connectivity supports our status as the region with the second-highest number of Fortune 500 companies, alongside more than 34 universities and 23 community colleges.

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Source: Chicagoland's Economic Assets, (2023). Regional Transportation Authority Mapping and Statistics, RTA (2024).

Imagine High-Frequency Bus Service in Our Region

Additional funding of $1.5 billion for our transit system would expand existing bus service, reduce wait times, enhance safety, and support the implementation of bus priority corridors in both Chicago and suburban communities with sufficient density. Pace currently operates two Pulse express bus routes (Milwaukee and Dempster Lines) with three more lines in project development (Halsted, 95th Street, Cermak) and five additional corridors planned (Harlem, Touhy, Western, North, Halsted-South). Meanwhile, the CTA has identified eight Bus Priority Corridors for enhanced bus infrastructure. Of these, five corridors (highlighted in solid red) have the potential to accommodate gold-standard Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems, including sufficient space for dedicated lanes and raised platforms.

Source: 2024 Suburban Transit Summit, RTA (2024). Bus Rapid Transit: Chicago’s New Route to Opportunity, MPC (2011)

Imagine Metra Regional Rail and CTA Rail Service Expansion

Source: 2024 Suburban Transit Summit, RTA (2024).

In addition to the full implementation of Metra's ongoing transition to a regional rail system—which will expand transit options and improve connectivity across the region—additional funding could support transformative projects. These include establishing an express route from Union Station to O’Hare International Airport and introducing 24-hour service to Midway Airport.


Budget Shortfall

Our region is facing a transit operating budget shortfall of approximately $750 million annually beginning in early 2026. This is a 20 percent operating funding deficit that will grow annually with the operating budgets of the transit service boards. In its  2025 Regional Budget , the Regional Transportation Authority (RTA) projects that this operating funding deficit will be about $1.14 billion in 2027. This gap would severely impact service delivery, potentially forcing our transit agencies to cut service by up to 40% to balance their budgets. If the fiscal cliff materializes and new funding solutions aren’t secured, our transit agencies will be forced to enact drastic service cuts. These potential reductions would impact tens of thousands of daily riders and reshape how people move throughout the region.

This set of StoryMaps illustrates what such service cuts might look like, based on productivity measures and past assessments. From bus routes to rail lines, the visualizations offer a preview of the scale of reductions that could be necessary. For details on how these scenarios were developed, visit our  methodology blog .

Pace Bus – 40% Service Cut Scenario

The map below highlights in red the bus routes affected by a 40% service cut in Pace's network. An estimated 1,862,067 people would be impacted by these reductions, including 284,882 older adults aged 65 and above who may rely more heavily on this service.

Before service cuts (Blue) and after service cuts (Red). Source: Regional Transportation Authority Mapping and Statistics. (2024). For details on service cut scenario modeling see methodology below.

CTA Bus – 20% Service Cut Scenario

The map below shows a 20% service cut scenario for CTA bus routes, similar to the proposed reductions during the fiscal crisis of 2007, which could have eliminated 57% of routes. Today, this level of cuts would impact 2,137,144 people that are within a walking distance of these routes. Additionally, all express lines would be discontinued, directly affecting 662,927 people living next to them, limiting access to job centers like the Loop. Older adults would also be disproportionately affected, with approximately 283,638 people aged 65 and older within walking distance of a bus stop losing access to vital transit services.

Before service cuts (Blue) and after service cuts (Red). Source: Regional Transportation Authority Mapping and Statistics. (2024). "CTA budget calls for 'devastating' cuts," Crain's Chicago Business (2007). For details on service cut scenario modeling see methodology below.

Regional Bus Service Cut Scenario (Pace 40% cut and CTA 20% cut)

Before service cuts (Blue) and after service cuts (Red). Source: Regional Transportation Authority Mapping and Statistics. (2024)."CTA budget calls for 'devastating' cuts," Crain's Chicago Business (2007). For details on service cut scenario modeling see methodology below.

CTA Rail - 40% Service Cut Scenario

In its Plan of Action for Regional Transit the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (CMAP),  indicated  that if forced over the fiscal cliff the CTA might eliminate its Yellow, Purple, Green, and Brown Lines. This would impact the CTA's ability to connect northern and western suburbs with the city. Communities such as Evanston, Skokie, Oak Park, and Forest Park would be most affected. The effect on the CTA’s rail system and its many users is illustrated below.

Before service cuts (Blue) and after service cuts (Red). PART-Briefing Book. (2023), Regional Transportation Authority Mapping and Statistics. (2024). For details on service cut scenario modeling see methodology below.

Metra Rail - 40% Service Cut Scenario

Rail service is also vulnerable to reduced operations and potential service cuts. Our analysis reveals that the collar counties would bear the greatest impact. For example, McHenry County could see total elimination of Metra service, while Lake and Will Counties risk losing service on two out of the three lines currently serving them.

Before service cuts (Blue) and after service cuts (Red). Regional Transportation Authority Mapping and Statistics. (2024). For details on service cut scenario modeling see methodology below.

Regional Rail Service Cut Scenario (Metra and CTA 40%)

Before service cuts (Blue) and after service cuts (Red). PART-Briefing Book. (2023), Regional Transportation Authority Mapping and Statistics. (2024). For details on service cut scenario modeling see methodology below.


Methodology

To visualize potential service cuts due to the impending fiscal cliff, the Metropolitan Planning Council (MPC) analyzed Pace, Metra, and CTA routes using the following methodology:

  • Pace and Metra: MPC calculated each route's weekly service mileage by multiplying the route mileage by the number of scheduled runs. Using RTAMS data, they determined each route’s productivity by dividing weekly passenger numbers by weekly mileage. Routes were then eliminated from least to most productive until 40% of the service board's vehicle service mileage was cut.
  • CTA: For its CTA bus service reduction scenario MPC started with the list of 82 bus routes proposed for elimination in 2008 to achieve a 20% service reduction and eliminated the routes that remained in service in 2024. Note that about a quarter of the bus routes that CTA proposed for elimination in 2008 were no longer in operation in 2024, which means that more routes would have to be eliminated—CMAP estimates about 90 routes total—to achieve a 20 percent reduction in service. For a 40% CTA service reduction scenario, MPC utilized CMAP’s Plan of Action for Regional Transit, which outlined drastic cuts, including the shutdown of several CTA rail lines. MPC combined these CTA rail line eliminations with the bus route eliminations.

MPC acknowledges the simplified nature of this methodology compared to the detailed assessments service boards would conduct. However, the visualizations provide a reasonable estimate of the scale of potential cuts if additional funding is not secured.