Race and Representation in Battleground Counties

The counties included in this analysis are generally the most populous counties in battleground states that have been pivotal in determining the outcome of the Electoral College over the last few presidential elections.

These counties were also explicit  targets  in both 2016 and 2020 for voter suppression efforts and in 2020 were  primary targets  of false and unproven allegations of widespread voter fraud. Similar efforts are  already underway  in advance of the 2024 election — efforts that will likely ramp up in the weeks preceding and following Election Day.

Presenting this analysis and data in advance of the 2024 election serves several purposes:   

• Establishes a comparative baseline for voter turnout and ballot rejection rates to enable better identification of any irregularities in the 2024 election and provide the foundation for future analytic work.

• Provides precinct-level 2020 voting data to help counter false claims of election fraud. 

• Affirms that claims of widespread illegal voting in these battleground counties are false and lack merit and evidence. 2020 election data show that only a minuscule fraction (less than 1%) of all ballots cast were rejected for voter eligibility reasons and that validated ballots were cast by eligible voters.

• Identifies low-turnout precincts to help strategically target voter mobilization and education efforts to increase participation in our democracy.   

• Highlights the critical need to provide — and continually improve — election data transparency for the 2024 election and beyond. Read our  recommendations for improving election data transparency .

For details on the data and methodology used for these maps and accompanying analysis,  download the technical appendix .

 Download the complete data  used for these maps and analysis.

For an in-depth discussion of the findings of this analysis, see author Michael Latner’s blog post,  New Analysis of 2020 Election Data Sets the Stage for November Vote. 

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