Remembering The "Perfect Storm" in Southern New England

Low pressure formed east of Nova Scotia along a cold front on October 28 while to the south, Hurricane Grace was offshore, just to the west of Bermuda.

(Image: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center Surface Analysis)

On October 29, Hurricane Grace's circulation was becoming disrupted by an approaching cold front. Moisture from Grace was starting to merge with the developing coastal storm, which had strengthened to 987 mb (29.15”) and was drifting southward.

(Image: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center Surface Analysis)

You can see the two features on this infrared satellite image.

Note how Hurricane Grace (circled) is becoming less organized. The warmer colors no longer wrap around Grace's center of circulation.

(Image: GOES Satellite - NOAA)

On October 30, the storm had drifted to the southwest and reached its peak intensity (972 mb or 28.70”) after merging with the remnants of Hurricane Grace. Several vessels nearby reported winds of 50-60 MPH. Georges Bank buoy, located to the northeast of the storm, reported gusts to 65 MPH and a significant wave height of 39 feet!

(Image: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center Surface Analysis)

On October 31, the southward motion of the storm brought it over a part of the Gulf Stream where sea surface temperatures were near 80 degrees F. Although the storm had weakened, the warmer water allowed showers and thunderstorms to begin to increase in bands near the center. At this point in time, it was estimated that subtropical characteristics were acquired.

(Image: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center Surface Analysis)

Early on November 1, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that showers and thunderstorms near the center had increased to the point where a tropical cyclone could be identified. Later it became a hurricane but was not named to avoid confusion! Thus, this storm also became known as the “Unnamed Hurricane”

(Image: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center Surface Analysis)

These GOES satellite photos show the subtropical storm forming on October 31 and development into a tropical storm early on November 1.

(Images: GOES Satellite - NOAA)

This GOES visible satellite photo taken at 1 PM on November 1 shows the "unnamed hurricane" at its peak intensity. Sustained winds were near 65 MPH and its central pressure was 980 mb (28.94"). The blue dots near and north of the center indicate lightning strikes.

(Image: GOES Satellite - NOAA)

The unnamed hurricane then sped to the northeast, passing over the same area as it did two days before. It made landfall near Halifax, Nova Scotia as a tropical storm around 9 AM on November 2.

Media attention was still focused on the massive damage from Maine to Florida caused by the slowly dying "Perfect Storm.” It was felt that naming the hurricane would cause major confusion on the part of the media, Emergency Management officials, and the public. Since the hurricane was expected to be short-lived and primarily of concern to maritime interests, it was decided to leave the storm unnamed. That decision was made jointly by the National Meteorological Center, selected NWS Forecast Offices, U.S. Navy, and the Maritimes Weather Center of the Atmospheric Environment Service of Canada. 

(Images: GOES Satellite - NOAA)

Walt Drag, Lead Forecaster at NWS Boston in 1991, recalls "In 1991, the NWS Boston office was located at the Mass Tech Center at Logan Airport. We could see from our Mass Tech Center office rooftop the huge waves breaking against Massachusetts Bay landmarks Wednesday afternoon October 30.”

(Photo: Logan Airport - FAA)

Drag further recalls “In 1991, we did not have access to the web (including model displays), nor the sophisticated analysis and forecast platforms/tools of Automated Weather Information Processing Systems (AWIPS). Nevertheless, the storm for southern New England and the adjacent ocean waters was generally well forecast, in part due to several days (model runs) of reasonably accurate long range weather outlooks and, in part due to the impressive developments that we saw occurring in the waters south of Nova Scotia on Monday and Tuesday October 28 and 29--a day or two before translating WESTWARD toward our coast.”

(Photo: NWS office typical of the early 1990s - NOAA/NWS)

Drag further recalls "The title for the book "Perfect Storm" was coined in the relay of meteorological information during post event conversation between our then NWS Boston Deputy Meteorologist In Charge Bob Case and author Sebastian Junger.”

Bob Case retired from the NWS in 2005 and passed away in June, 2008.

(Photo: Bob Case, Deputy Meteorologist-In-Charge at NWS Boston in 1991 - NOAA/NWS)

YES! The storm spared New England far greater damage. Its center at its closest point passed about 125 miles southeast of Nantucket and it was weakening!

It also occurred during perigean neap tides. The Boston astronomical high tide on October 30 was 10.2 feet. Had the storm occurred a week earlier or later, high tide, astronomically, would have started nearly a foot higher (about 11 feet).

Had this been the case, Boston’s storm tide with a 5 foot surge could have peaked over 16 feet (MLLW) which has never occurred since the gauge was installed in the 1930s!

(Photo: High surf in Scituate, MA - Boston Globe)

There is no doubt this was a highly unusual benchmark storm for the open waters of the northwest Atlantic in the second half the 20th century. Never making a U.S. landfall, it has to be regarded as a recent extreme and record setting event for this portion of the Atlantic Ocean.

(Photo: Coastal flooding in Revere, MA - Boston Globe)

For the southern New England mainland, while a devastating storm for those lives lost at sea and for the homes destroyed along the coast, other events in the 20th century had equal or more severe impact.

(Photo: Storm damage in Scituate, MA - Boston Globe)

The harshness of the paralyzing Blizzard of ‘78 along with its comparable coastal flooding to that of ‘91, and the extensive rampage of the Hurricane of ‘38 probably are considered more severe than the coastal limited impact of the "Perfect Storm"

(Photo: Storm damage in Gloucester, MA - Gloucester Times)