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Advancing Research in our Highest Weather Impacts
Fiscal Year 2022 Disaster Relief Supplemental Act - Improvements
Introduction
Road washed out in Yellowstone National Park during historic Summer 2022 floods
We are a weather-weary and weather-worn nation, and the increase in billion-dollar disasters remains unabated. In the last 5 years alone, the United States has endured a total of 89 billion dollar weather and climate disasters . The U.S. government has responded with increased resources to better understand the weather and environmental conditions that affect us all. Supplemental budget appropriations within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) fund important research that helps us gain this greater knowledge. This StoryMap shows how these additional funds aimed at specific scientific challenges are making a difference. We highlight the world-class researchers that lead the projects and teams that accomplish these Congressional mandates and also share how the management of these efforts is, in part, the responsibility of NOAA's Weather Program Office (WPO) Supplemental Program team.
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) image of Hurricane Ian
Drought and relentless heat set the stage for extraordinary 2020 and 2021 wildfire seasons in western states, with both years far surpassing the average of 1.2 million acres burned annually since 2016. In California alone, over 9,000 wildfires in 2021 accounted for tens of billions of dollars in damage. Wildfire managers dealt with extreme fire behavior. Several monstrous blazes burned for months, and others incinerated entire communities within a few hours. Some fires even ignited during nighttime wind events preventing firefighters from making progress on containment. We’ve endured raging fires, but that is not all, as we’ve also experienced extreme rain. In September 2021, Hurricane Ida killed more than 100 people and destroyed over $75 billion in property in the U.S. Inland flooding and tornadoes impacted many communities hundreds of miles from Ida’s landfall in Louisiana. For example, as remnants of Ida traversed the Northeast, the system dropped heavy rains with rainfall rates reaching three inches per hour in certain locations, causing devastating flash and urban flooding.
Public Law 117-43 , the Disaster Relief Supplemental Appropriations (DRSA) Act, was signed into law on September 30, 2021 and included a total of $345 million for NOAA. Of that funding, $105 million was dedicated to research and high performance computing related to improving our understanding of the devastating impacts of hurricanes, floods, and wildfires in calendar years 2020 and 2021, hereafter referred to as the FY22 Supplemental Portfolio. The FY22 Supplemental Portfolio funding is broken down as follows:
- $35 million to improve hurricane intensity and track forecasting, including through deployment of uncrewed ocean observing platforms and enhanced data assimilation; and precipitation and flood prediction, forecasting, and mitigation capabilities
- $20 million to improve wildfire research, prediction, detection, forecasting, monitoring, data management, and communication and engagement
- $50 million for improvements to operational and research weather and climate supercomputing and dissemination infrastructure, observing assets, and satellites, along with associated ground systems, used for hurricane intensity and track prediction; precipitation and flood prediction, forecasting, and mitigation; and wildfire research, prediction, detection, forecasting, and monitoring.
This pie chart shows the distribution of the above categories in the FY22 Supplemental Portfolio research funding broken down into more detail, including four focus areas (Hurricane, Flood, Precipitation, and Wildfire), as well as High Performance Computing. Of the $105 million in funding, $750 thousand is allocated for staffing to support the transition to operations of model components and forecast improvements. This includes $500 thousand for Wildfire and $250 thousand for Hurricane transitions.
The new research projects of the FY22 Supplemental Portfolio will build on the successes of previous Supplemental appropriations portfolios and continue to advance efforts in the respective research focus areas. With $50 million funded in FY18, the Hurricane Supplemental Portfolio consisted of projects in weather forecasting, flooding, hurricanes, and data assimilation. With $25 million funded in FY19, the Disaster Supplemental Portfolio supported hurricane, flood, and wildfire research. For more information on these portfolios and their accomplishments, take a look at the FY18 Hurricane Supplemental StoryMap and the FY19 Disaster Supplemental StoryMap .
Timeline of major DRSA events
The FY22 Supplemental Portfolio comprises of 28 research projects focusing on hurricanes (6), extreme precipitation (6), floods (2), and wildfires (14) over a two- to three-year timeline. The following vignettes highlight scientists whose FY22 Supplemental Portfolio work builds on their previous research in the FY18 Hurricane Supplemental and FY19 Disaster Supplemental Portfolios.
Project Manager Highlights
Avichal Mehra, PhD
Avichal Mehra, PhD
Dr. Avichal Mehra is the Chief of the Dynamics and Coupled Modeling Group at the National Weather Service’s National Center for Environmental Prediction and Environmental Modeling Center (NWS/NCEP/EMC) . He and his team have had a profound impact on hurricane research. For the FY18 Hurricane Supplemental Portfolio, his project, “Accelerate re-Engineering of Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System (HAFS)” resulted in hurricane model improvements that will be implemented into existing operational hurricane models in 2023. Avichal also contributed mightily to the FY19 Disaster Supplemental Portfolio with his project, “Advance ocean data assimilation and coupling of air-sea models in the NOAA Unified Forecast System (UFS) in support of improved flood and inundation forecasting through coordination with National Weather Service and National Ocean Service.” This project compares ocean models and data assimilation methods, and leverages future research activities to improve coupled hurricane forecasts. The project also establishes capabilities of air-sea interface modeling, and brings forward gaps that must be addressed for future coupled data assimilation, for hurricane applications.
For the current FY22 Supplemental Portfolio, we will again look to Avichal and his team for world-class research, this time in the realm of moving nests within numerical prediction models. Ideally, forecasters want hurricane prediction models that have a resolution of less than 1 kilometer in their global horizontal grid spacing to be able to simulate a hurricane eyewall and inner core. However, given the current resources for operations, global models have a resolution closer to 9 kilometers, which is insufficient for being able to simulate a hurricane eyewall and inner core.
A solution to this problem is the concept of a dynamic high-resolution moving “nest” that can “follow” a hurricane and have the optimal resolution for the storm and its environment. This will lead to improved intensity and track predictions. This technique has already been proven in the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model. Avichal’s team will help implement this moving nest modeling technique into the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System in the next few years. The Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System will replace the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model as the operational model used by the National Hurricane Center for the 2023 hurricane season.
Image Credit: Bill Ramstrom, NOAA/OAR/AOML
Gina Eosco, PhD
Gina Eosco, PhD
While the vast majority of all Supplemental-funded projects are concentrated on the physical science of the weather, water, and climate system, NOAA is increasing its investment in Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences. Getting a forecast or warning to the public is useless if they don’t know what it means. The process of disseminating information to the public is complicated by the differences in comprehension: what is understood by a forecaster may not appear the same to an emergency manager, who in turn communicates a different message to local officials and the public. Making sense of all these practices takes an accomplished social scientist. Dr. Gina Eosco is a social scientist and risk assessment expert supporting the Weather Program Office and these Supplemental funded projects. Analyzing how people seek weather information, adapt to changing forecasts, and perceive risk in the days and hours before an extreme weather event will reveal how best to refine and redesign products to better serve the public.
Specifically, for the FY22 Supplemental Portfolio, Gina’s team will conduct stakeholder and user engagement to develop precipitation product designs that are more effective. Working across NOAA programs, Gina’s project will implement the NOAA Service Delivery Framework. This framework emphasizes gathering, translating, and responding to user information and needs to deliver usable and accessible products to NOAA’s stakeholders. The Service Delivery Framework will: (1) identify information needs of core decision makers, (2) collect user and stakeholder feedback to improve existing precipitation products and (3) develop new products like the Urban Rain Rate Dashboard to meet the needs of the nation.
This project will benefit all elements of the operational weather enterprise, core partners, and the public that it serves by improving the Weather Prediction Center’s precipitation forecast products and services. Easy-to-understand graphical and communication products will support stakeholders such as emergency, water utilities, and stormwater managers, to make informed decisions in advance of extreme precipitation events.
Sean Helfrich, PhD
Current long term weather trends suggest a warming atmosphere that can hold more water vapor, leading to a moister atmosphere. The most widespread impact of a moisture-laden atmosphere is on “big rain” events, which are becoming more frequent and intense. Extreme precipitation events and flooding were an established focus area in the FY18 Hurricane Supplemental and FY19 Disaster Supplemental Portfolios. The critical scientific work in this area continues in the FY22 Supplemental Portfolio.
Sean Helfrich, PhD
Sean Helfrich is a research scientist within NOAA’s Center for Satellite Applications and Research . Most recently his work in the FY19 Disaster Supplemental Portfolio on Accelerating the Exploitation of Satellite Observations to Improve Flooding and Inundation Monitoring and Forecasts yielded significant results and was put to the test when Hurricane Ida struck Louisiana on August 29, 2021. Data collected for Sean’s project suggests that the levee system that protects New Orleans was holding back flood waters from reaching the more populated areas inside the levee walls. Sean's latest effort, “Street-Level Flood Mapping from Satellites for Actionable Decision Support and Flood Forecasting” began in the fall of 2022.
Sean’s work will dramatically improve the spatial resolution on a special instrument that collects visible and infrared images and observations of land, atmosphere, the cryosphere, and ocean. The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite Flood Mapping system currently has a spatial resolution limited to 375 meters, the native resolution of the optical satellite channels. Sean’s team will develop a new algorithm that will deliver new street level flood mapping capacities at 30 meter resolution for the National Water Center, National Weather Service River Forecast Offices, and other federal, state, and public users.
Image: Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite satellite image of the Louisiana coastline during Hurricane Ida.
Ivanka Stajner, PhD
Perhaps no trend on our planet has been more alarming than the surge in wildfires, exacerbated by the increase in global temperatures and regional drought. An essential component of battling wildfires is their detection and prediction, but there are significant impacts to society beyond the flames. Air quality can become hazardous near and downwind of these wildfires and disproportionately impact underserved and vulnerable communities. Leading the effort to accurately predict the air quality for those affected by wildfires, is Dr. Ivanka Stajner.
Ivanka is the Deputy Director of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center with expertise in air quality, numerical modeling, long term weather variability, and Earth observations. Her FY19 Disaster Supplemental project on smoke and emission products has already resulted in the best-ever air quality forecasts.
The Oregon Bootleg Fire as seen by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-17). Credit: NOAA
With an investment of $4 million, Ivanka’s FY22 Supplemental Portfolio project will accelerate development and the transition of a high-resolution Air Quality Modeling System into National Weather Service operations by the end of calendar year 2025. The goals of this project include higher-resolution and more accurate air quality predictions using artificial intelligence-based methods, and including feedback between chemical composition and physical processes governing weather. The system can also serve as a starting point for using new atmospheric composition measurements from upcoming satellite instruments.
Transitions
As hurricane impacts to life and property continue to increase and fire seasons become longer and more severe, it becomes imperative that advancements in these research areas are implemented in operational forecast systems. As a result, $750,000 of FY22 Supplemental Portfolio funds are being used for staffing to support the transition to operations of model components and forecast advancements being delivered by FY22 Supplemental Portfolio research. $250,000 is being allocated to support the transition of hurricane numerical model research and development to National Weather Service operations and $500,000 is being allocated to support fire weather model implementations. NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction Central Operations is providing support for supplemental product implementations into operations.
FY22 Supplemental Portfolio research contributes to high-profile hurricane and fire model implementations. The new Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System will provide improved predictions of hurricane track and intensity, including rapid intensification, and storm size, storm surge, and rainfall out to seven days. Advancements in fire weather research will support the transition of a high-resolution air quality prediction system to operations and improve forecast accuracy of fire weather, smoke transport, and air quality.
The Gantt chart below shows expected transitions from FY22 Disaster Relief Supplemental Appropriations (Improvements) projects between FY23 and FY25. Anticipated transitions include the National Water Model (NWM), the Probabilistic Tropical Storm Surge (PSURGE) model, and the The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System.
Detailed time line of numerical computer models, aided by work conducted in the FY22 Supplemental Portfolio, anticipated to transition to operations. These models include the following: Regional Advanced Baseline Imager and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite Emissions (RAVE) algorithm/ Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System, National Water Model (NWM), Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) v2, Probabilistic Tropical Storm Surge (PSURGE), Noah Land Surface Model with Multiple-Physics (Noah-MP), HAFS Ensemble, Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) v1, HAFS v3, Three-Dimensional Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (STOFS-3D), RRFSv2, and the CMAQ Modeling System
World-class research supported by FY22 Supplemental Portfolio funds continues to advance the Weather Enterprise and helps save lives, protect property, and mitigate impacts to our economy.
Partners
NOAA Weather Program Office Supplemental Appropriations Program Team
Communication and management of all these research portfolios requires a cross-NOAA team effort to be successful. Central to that effort is the NOAA Weather Program Office Supplemental Appropriations Program Team. Providing 360-degree coordination of the planning, budget execution, monitoring, analysis, reporting, and communication of the projects of the FY18 Hurricane Supplemental, FY19 Disaster Supplemental, and FY22 Supplemental Portfolios, the team is led by Federal Program Manager, Mark Vincent, Ph.D. Aided by federal employees and contractor support staff, Mark ensures that these funds are effectively and efficiently used to bring tangible improvements to the forecasting of extreme weather events that benefit the nation.
Weather weariness is not easily overcome. NOAA and its partners are committed to these FY22 Supplemental Portfolio projects that will provide the needed knowledge to take the first steps in mitigation and adaptation. The health of our communities requires preparing for and responding to changes on our planet. NOAA’s mission of science, service, and stewardship is directed toward a vision where societies and their ecosystems are healthy and resilient in the face of sudden or prolonged change. These FY22 Supplemental Portfolio projects on high-impact weather also align with NOAA's mission to serve the public with life-saving information and value-added products.