Water, Energy, Food nexus

The Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus has emerged as a multi-centric lens for assessing integrated resources management for efficient use of natural resources. The term nexus is used to describe the interactions of producing, distributing, and consuming water, energy and food, and their interaction with the environment.

This approach allows integrally assessing and identifying connections between three sectors to manage the supply and demand of resources. It also allows revealing synergies and trade-offs of interventions in a particular sector. To achieve SDG targets related to water, energy, and food resources, an integral approach is necessary which a nexus approach reveals.

• Identify the issues related to water, energy and food in your country (e.g. growing export of agricultural products)
• Define the trend from the past and define the target
• Find possible causes why your objective (e.g. to increase food exports) has not yet been achieved. For instance: climate change, lack of natural resources, etc.
• Define the impact on the country (e.g. trade deficit, growing national depth, etc.)
• Identify possible interventions to reach your objective (e.g. more efficient techniques, allocation and/or development of resources, etc.) taking the linkages between issues, causes, impacts and interventions visible
• The results of this process can be visualised using a dashboard. The dashboard, allows any user to gain insight into the effectiveness of interventions, as well as their synergies and trade-off and what is their impact on the overall water, energy and food security for a defined region. This can contribute to the development of policies that make sustainable use of resources.

Assessing the WEF nexus ‘uniting Water, Energy and Food’ at the WEF summit at the Expo Dubai.

To prepare the discussions during the WEF summit at the Expo Dubai 2021/2022, the Netherlands together with Jordan and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) initiated in 2021 a research collaboration involving academic and research institutions from the three countries through the implementation of the project “Assessing the WEF nexus ‘uniting Water, Energy and Food’ at the WEF summit”.

The aim of the project was to support the multi-sectoral dialogue by assessing relevant problems in study cases of the three countries under the water-energy-food nexus perspective. The case studies are at the following levels: A national case in UAE, a national case in Jordan and a peri-urban case in the Netherlands. Through training, workshops and the use of approaches and tools, including group model building, system dynamics, and policy dashboards, the Netherlands worked together with researchers from the Jordan University of Science & Technology, the National Agriculture Research Center in Jordan and the International Center for Biosaline Agriculture in the UAE, among others, Greenport West-Holland in the Netherlands, and officials of governmental institutions of Jordan and UAE and the Province of Zuid Holland in the Netherlands. The results of the project are presented during the Summit through interactive policy simulations and discussions.

Food availability under water scarcity and high energy prices

Over 3 million individuals in Jordan are vulnerable to food insecurity ( WB/FAO/IFAD/WFP, 2020 ). The recent COVID-19 pandemic has stressed even further the local economy, already heavily reliant on food imports from other countries, such as wheat from Eastern Europe and legumes from Egypt and India ( Fathallah, 2021 ).

So far, the government's strategy to reduce food insecurity has been to invest in strategic food reserves. However, this measure is not the most sustainable, since it still relies on food imports and it is very costly.

Other more innovative strategies are currently being considered, aiming at more sustainable and long-term investments that allow Jordan to be more self-sufficient. Improvements in the agricultural sector could contribute to increasing production, improving the country's food security and its local economy.

When it comes to the use of renewable energy, Jordan presents a high potential for the use of renewable energy, given that the high solar radiation figures of 4 – 7 kWh/m2 per day with about 300 sunny days per year, and wind speeds reach more than 8.0 m/s in some places.

The main indicators to reflect the Food, Water and Energy concerns of this case in Jordan are:

• Agricultural production (Megatons) - Domestic Agricultural production
• Groundwater recharge/consumption ratio - Relationship between the groundwater recharge and the total groundwater consumed
• Agricultural water availability/consumed ratio - Relationship between the water available or allocated for agriculture and the water consumed in the sector
• Agricultural energy consumption (TW) – Amount of energy consumed from water use in the sector in TeraWatts
• Cost of agricultural water use (MM JOD) – Cost of water use in the agricultural sector in Million JOD
• Agricultural greenhouse gasses emission (Megatons CO2e) – Amount of GhG emission from the agricultural sector plus indirect emissions from agricultural water use

The construction of the scenarios is based on the relevant drivers and pressures to the interconnected water-energy-food system. Relevant external factors identified together with local stakeholders are economic growth, population growth and climate change. The selected projections of these factors are presented below: 

• Economic growth. Based on the Global economic prospects of the World Bank (2021) two rates of annual GDP growth were selected for Jordan: 1.4% and 2.3%
• Population growth. Projections used based on population scenarios of the Department of Statistics of Jordan: Medium scenario (27.6% by 2030) and low scenario (18.5% by 2030)
• Climate change. Focus on RCP 8.5. In RCP 8.5 emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century. RCP8.5, generally taken as the basis for worst-case climate change scenarios. According to Jordan’ 3rd National Communication on climate change by 2035 precipitation may fall by 12.9 mm and mean temperature increase by 1.6 degrees Celsius. On a countrywide scale, this would mean a decline in long-term groundwater recharge and surface water runoff of about 15% by 2040 (MWI and GIZ, 2020). 

Based on these factors and projections, the following scenarios were built:

• Baseline: Reference scenario as in 2019
• Business as usual under high climate change: Annual GDP growth of 1.4%, population growth of 18.5% by 2030, and climate change under RCP8.5
• Moderate growth under high climate change: Annual GDP growth of 2.3%, population growth of 27.6% by 2030, and climate change under RCP8.5

The following relevant measures were identified. These measures were assessed under the scenarios described above. In total 15 runs of the system dynamics model were performed.

1 Increase non-conventional water sources:

• Desalination of brackish water for drinking water purposes: Projected increase of 25 MCM from 2027
• Desalination of seawater for drinking water purposes (Aqaba-Amman Water Desalination and Conveyance project): Projected increase of 300 MCM from 2027
• Treated wastewater: Projected increase 1.9 MCM for industrial use and 92.1 MCM for agricultural purposes from 2022

2 Investment in renewable energy in the water sector: 6% increase by 2019 up to 15% increase by 2025

3 Awareness of water irrigation control: Expected actual reduction of 5% of countrywide irrigation farming (excluding, rainfed farming, 25%). This measure considers that the saved water is used to increase production.

4 Water harvesting and dams: 38 MCM increase storage volume within basic drain of Valley and springs.

Supporting pathways under sustainable food production under water scarcity.

Sustainable domestic production of strategic food items

As formulated in the national food security strategy, UAE envisages its population having access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food for an active and healthy life at affordable prices at all times by 2051. To achieve this, UAE aims to increase its domestic food production of eighteen strategic food items, including livestock products, fisheries and plant products (fruits, vegetables, grains & pulses and oils). Increased food self-sufficiency enhances the capacity of UAE to respond to food security risks and crises. In 2018, around 35% of the domestic food consumption was produced domestically and UAE heavily relied on the import of food items. 

Domestic production of food in UAE is challenged by the climatic and geographic conditions present. Land availability for food production is limited and fresh water is scarce. Climate change will intensify those already challenging conditions, as it is expected to further increase desertification and reduce groundwater and surface water availability. At the same time, population growth and economic development further pressurize the food self-sufficiency rate.

Agriculture currently comes with high environmental costs due to the production systems and practices in place. Water scarcity is currently leading to the overextraction of groundwater for agricultural purposes, resulting in dropping groundwater levels. Moreover, open field production systems affect groundwater quality and the desalinization of sea water for fresh water supply impacts the marine environment of the Gulf.

To increase the domestic production of strategic food items sustainably, sustainable water provision and efficient agricultural production systems are thus of crucial importance. The key question addressed here is how the UAE can increase or at least maintain the production of strategic food items without further pressurizing the water and energy systems.

The main indicators to reflect the Food, Water and Energy sectors in the UAE are:

• Food self-sufficiency rate (%) – food production domestically versus total food demand of the population.
• Agricultural water productivity (Mm3/ton) – how much water is needed to produce one ton of food on average in the UAE.
• Agricultural water use (%) – the share of water consumed by agricultural production compared with total water supply.
• Agricultural energy consumption (kWh) – total amount of energy consumed during production + indirect energy consumption from water.
• Agricultural Greenhouse gasses emission (tons CO2e) – amount of GhG emission from the agricultural sector + indirect emissions from agricultural water use. 

The construction of scenarios is based on the relevant drivers and pressures to the interconnected water-energy-food system. Relevant external factors that were identified, include:

• Climate change, specifically, climate change impacts on:
• Groundwater and surface water availability
• Desertification of arable land
• Yields (increased crop stress)
• Population growth – affects the food-self sufficiency rate
• Economic growth – affects the food-self sufficiency rate

All scenarios are based on identical expectations for population growth and economic growth, yet they differ in the level of climate change accounted for. Moreover, the scenarios differ in terms of the type of measures taken to increase the domestic production of strategic food items sustainably. 

Relevant measures that were identified to increase food self-sufficiency without further pressurizing the water system and increasing fossil energy use:

1. Increased usage of treated wastewater for irrigation - from 515 Mm3 in 2018 to to 679 Mm3 in 2050. 
2. Increased usage of desalinated seawater for livestock and irrigation, obtained through reverse osmosis including the transition towards renewable energy-driven operation – from 2,027 Mm3 in 2018 to 6,083 Mm3 in 2050 with increasing trend to use renewable energy sources.
3. Increased irrigation efficiency as a result of demand-side management such as the change from traditional open systems to modern agricultural systems with greenhouses, introduction of modern irrigation innovations and educational programmes to improve irrigation efficiency – from 0.72 in 2018 to 0.9 in 2050.
4. Change to crops and production systems with lower water requirements and higher yields/ha – replacement of maize to less water-intensive crops such as vegetables.

A total of ten model runs will be explored for the UAE for the timespan 2018 - 2050. These scenarios are as follows:

• Run 1a: Business-As-Usual (BAU)
• Run 1b: BAU with climate change factors (RCP 8.5)
• Run 2a: BAU + measure 1
• Run 2b: BAU with climate change factor + measure 1
• Run 3a: BAU + measure 2
• Run 3b: BAU with climate change factor + measure 2
• Run 4a: BAU + measure 3
• Run 4b: BAU with climate change factor + measure 3
• Run 5a: BAU + measure 4
• Run 5b: BAU with climate change factor + measure 4

Horticultural production in Greenport West-Holland, Province Zuid-Holland.

The horticultural sector in the Netherlands is characterized by its high level of technology, innovation and international competitiveness. Greenhouses are key to achieve this. Due to climate conditions, food and product quality criteria, these greenhouses require intensive means: both in energy, water, climate regulation, environment and labour. In order to remain competitive, efficiency and continuous efficiency improvements of these means are key.

The Dutch horticultural sector produces vegetables, flowers and plants. Most of those are energy, water and nutrient intensive, like tomatoes, paprika, roses and orchids. Pending on the crop, greenhouses are heated, use assimilation lighting and additional CO2-fertilisation.

The water-energy-food (WEF) nexus case developed under this project for the Netherlands focusses on the Greenport West-Holland. The Greenport West-Holland forms a cluster comprising horticultural production, trade and handling of products and logistics. Private enterprises, government and research and knowledge institutes are member of the Greenport West-Holland.

The Greenport West-Holland provides jobs to about 75 000 persons and represents an annual economic value of 12 billion euros. It is located on the west coast of the Netherlands in a densely populated area and is bordered by the Port and city of Rotterdam and the city of The Hague. The Greenport West-Holland exports for 8.5 billion euro of fresh products to 51 countries, with Western Europe as the major market, reaching 300 million customers, accounting for about 50% of total Dutch fresh products export. In addition, the Greenport West-Holland has as ambition to provide “feeding and greening” to megacities worldwide by exporting its knowledge and expertise on sustainable horticulture. 

The WEF nexus case has been developed for the horticultural production part of the Greenport West-Holland, including ineractions between energy use (and related CO2 emissions), water use and areal occupaciancy representing the food part in the nexus.

Nexus : land factor

The area in Greenport West-Holland is the largest regional complex of greenhouses in the Netherlands, it covers about 41 percent of the total Dutch greenhouse area (4676 hectares).  Half of the total Dutch greenhouse area for flowers is situated in this Greenport and one-third of the vegetable area. Individual companies can reach a size of several hectares. It is located in a densely populated and industrialized area, putting quite some stress on the available land in the region, which requires thorough spatial planning and potentially reduces growth for new companies.

Nexus: energy factor

These crops require heat, lighting and CO2. Due to the energy-intensive demand of the greenhouse crops, the gas-fired engines which supply at the same time heat, electricity (mainly for lighting), and CO2 are quite commonly found in greenhouses. These are called combined heat and power installations (CHP). In the Dutch case, as heat, electricity, and CO2 are not simultaneously in demand all the time, price differences between gas and electricity lead to exploitation of the gas engines where electricity above the own demand of the greenhouse is sold back to the electricity grid. 

In order to reduce climate emissions from these installations, the horticulture sector was the first in the Netherlands to experience with deep geothermal heat. In 2021 there were 17 geothermal projects active in the Dutch greenhouse sector. Another source of energy is residual heat from the industry that is distributed through district heat networks and applied for greenhouse heating. Implementation of energy savings is supported by a joint government-sector program through dedicated, technology-specific subsidies, requiring a minimum energy saving rate and dissemination of best practices.

As the Dutch subsurface (up to 4000 meters) consist of mainly sand, clay sand- and limestone which are porous materials and contains brine (hot water), this can be extracted from one well, having its heat transferred in an above-ground heat exchanger and pumped back into the soil in a second well. Depending on the depth, temperatures of 75 to 100 °C can be reached, sufficient to heat greenhouses. Volume flow, and thus thermal capacity, is very much dependent on the subsurface composition, which has been proved to be very advantageous in Westland. Therefore several geothermal projects are already in use and more are planned.

Nexus : water factor

Water is an essential input for the production of horticulture crops. 80% of the horticulture area in Greenport West-Holland consists of soilless crop production. This makes the crops very sensitive to salinity because no salt storage in the soil is possible. High salt concentration in the irrigation water affects cop yields and therefore the primary source for water supply is rainwater. However, especially in dry years, the amount of rainwater that can be collected is not sufficient for meeting the demand. Surface water and groundwater via reverse osmose are then used to supplement the rainwater. This means a claim of the horticulture sector on underground space for the storage of groundwater which may compete with claims from other sectors. 

Currently, in an average year, the horticulture sector is to a large extent self-sufficient in terms of water use. However, climate change will affect the rainfall patterns, crop water use, and the availability of good quality surface water. Growing (global) demand for horticulture products will also increase the pressure on water resources and available land. A more efficient use of WEF resources by applying an integrated nexus approach is greatly needed.  

The construction of the scenarios is based on the relevant drivers and pressures to the interconnected water-energy-food system. The fours scenarios are:

Business as Usual (BaU) scenario

• Area development, heat and electricity demand according to KEV2021
• No major changes in policies and technological innovations
• Moderate global growth
• Moderate climate change: annual rainfall 868 mm

High Global Economic Growth scenario

• High global economic growth
• Increase in global demand for vegetables and flowers
• Unchanged horticulture area 
• Moderate climate change: annual rainfall 868 mm

Climate-neutral 2040 scenario

• Unchanged horticulture area
• Shift from gas to geothermal: 15% in 2030 and 25% in 2040
• Shift from gas to heat network: 5% in 2030 and 10% in 2040
• Energy and water efficiency improvements: 15% in 2040
• Moderate climate change: annual rainfall 868 mm

Water storage capacity scenario

• The area used for greenhouse horticulture decreased by 5% in 2030 and 10% in 2040
• Water efficiency improvement: 15% in 2040
• Moderate climate change: annual rainfall 868 mm