Back Bay Forest Weather Response

This study is looking at trees in two characteristic habitats of Back Bay National Wildlife Refuge; the dunes and maritime forest. Climate change is a growing regional threat that over time could create weather extremes that are out of the trees zone of tolerance on the refuge. This study explores how historical trends in precipitation affected these trees in two different habitats.

This is an interactive map. Feel free to click, drag and explore the two research sites, to learn about how historic weather patterns have impacted the forest of the barrier island.

This is the dune trail, located close to the visitor center. The dunes provide a dynamic habitat that is greatly affected by tides, wind, and salt spray from the ocean. This area is also susceptible to drought.

We use increment borers to obtain tree core samples. This safely extracts a small sample from the tree without causing any harm.

Using conventional forestry practices

Using the National weather service data we compared historic precipitation trends to the growth of the specific trees found in this ecosystem.

data taken from National Weather Service https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=akq

The blue pins represent live oaks and the green represent loblolly pines.

This is a photograph of a year of growth in a live oak tree. The circles in the photo are the xylem structure. Xylem are hollow tube spaces that allow water to flow up a tree. There is research that states that live oaks are one of the most difficult trees to study. This is because they don't have tree rings at all but rather a density change in the xylem structure.

Live oak sample (left) and a Loblolly Pine sample (right)

There is an obvious difference between the two species of trees found in this ecosystem. The pine has brown and yellow patterning that is distinguishable tree ring growth. The live oak has very subtle changes in xylem density which are difficult to see even under a microscope. Both trees can be used for dendrochronology research but this species of pine is more commonly used because they are easier to read.

5-PDT is a loblolly pine with a diameter of 12 inches. The sample collected dates back to 1984. Using the historical weather data, we compared the rate of growth to the amount of precipitation in that year.

2004, 2008, and 2018 are all years where there was a significant drop in the trees growth as well as the precipitation rate for that year.

In 1984, 1993, and 1990, there were spikes in growth this correlates with the historic weather data. This indicates that there was more precipitation in those years allowing the tree to grow.

Historic Weather Patterns

Loblolly Pine on the Dune Trail

1-LODT is a loblolly pine with a diameter of 14 inches. The sample collected dates back to 1992. Using the historical weather data we compared the rate of growth to the amount of precipitation in that year.

Live Oak on Dune Trail

1992 , 1994, 2004 and 2010 are years where there are spikes in this tree's growth. These spikes relate back to how there was more precipitation in those years according to the National Weather Service data.


1996, 2000, 2004 and 2006 are all years where there was less rainfall from the historic data and less growth shown in this live oak.

Now we will investigate the second study site; the green hills, located on the south end of Back Bay National Wildlife Refuge.

This is the Green Hills study site 2, located located on the west dike near A Pool. The Maritime Forest provides a habitat that is inland and on the bay side of the barrier island.

The growth compared to the weather data may be varied by a few years due to the challenges of reading the samples of live oaks with no growth rings and pines that have false rings. More research can be done to verify these findings.

1 full dark to light band represents one year of growth.

The section of the core sample circled in red is a false ring.

False rings occur in Loblolly pines and some other tree species but not all. They can form when there is an abrupt change in weather. These false rings if misidentified can interfere with data collection.

7-LOMF is a live oak with a diameter of 14 inches. The sample collected dates back to 1963.

Historic Weather Patterns

Live Oak in Green Hills

In years 1963, 1996 and 2009, there were spikes in the live oaks growth along with more precipitation recorded in those years.

In years 1970 and 1976, there were drops in rate of tree growth. This correlates with less precipitation recorded in those years from the National Weather Service.

2-PMF is a live oak with a diameter of 21.5 inches. The sample collected dates back to 1965.

Loblolly Pine

1967, 1983 and 2017 are years where there were spikes in this pines growth with more precipitation recorded in those years.

1969, 2005 and 2008 are years when there were drops in the rate of tree growth. This correlates with less precipitation recorded in those years from the National Weather Service.

In this study we also wanted to include a comparison between the two species, but found there was little to no difference in how the loblolly pines and live oaks respond to different levels of precipitation.

This study supports the hypothesis that precipitation in the Hampton Roads area is a significant factor affecting tree growth. More research will need to be done to confirm these findings.

This study is in partnership with Back Bay National Wildlife Refuge, Back Bay National Wildlife Refuge Society and the Virginia Beach City Public Schools Environmental Studies Program

by Kylee Guarin

Using conventional forestry practices

data taken from National Weather Service https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=akq

Live oak sample (left) and a Loblolly Pine sample (right)

Historic Weather Patterns

Loblolly Pine on the Dune Trail

Live Oak on Dune Trail

1 full dark to light band represents one year of growth.

The section of the core sample circled in red is a false ring.

Historic Weather Patterns

Live Oak in Green Hills

Loblolly Pine