Weekly Conflict Summary
Syria Weekly Conflict Summary 24 - 30 May 2021
Figure 1: Dominant actors’ area of control and influence in Syria as of 30 May 2021. NSOAG stands for Non-state Organized Armed Groups. Also, please see endnote 1.
Summary
· Clashes continue between the Government of Syria (GoS) armed forces and armed opposition groups in northwest Syria.
· President Bashar Assad is re-elected for a fourth presidential term.
· The predominantly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) escalate conscription campaign.
Northwest Syria
Conflict in Northwest Syria
Violence continued in northwest Syria with Russia assuming a more active role in hostilities in the region. Turkey continued to build up its military presence as well[HB1] . Fighting between GoS armed forces and their allies on the one side and armed opposition groups on the other side has been concentrated primarily in the frontline areas near the Jabal al-Zawiyah area, Idlib Governorate.
Figure 2: Conflict events between GoS armed forces and armed opposition groups between 24 – 30 May 2021. Largest bubble represents 3 conflict events. Data from The Carter Center and ACLED
25 May
An opposition Ansar Al-Tawhid sniper killed a GoS soldier near the Dar al Kabira frontline, Idlib Governorate.[1]
26 May
GoS armed forces shelled frontline villages in the Jabal al-Zawiyah area, southern Idlib Governorate.[1]
Image Source: https://tinyurl.com/898uy5ch
27 May
GoS armed forces bombed villages in the Al-Ghab Plain, northern Hama Governorate, setting the agricultural farms on fire.[1] The opposition Syrian Civil Defense alleged that GoS deliberately targeted the agricultural areas during harvest season.[2]
South & Central Syria
Presidential Election in Syria
The presidential elections in Syria took place on 26 May 2021 in GoS-controlled territory. The Kurdish Syrian Democratic Council (SDC) criticized the election as contrary to UNSC resolution 2254.[1] The election was criticized by western countries and opposition groups as neither free nor fair. However, analysts argued that the election served to assert and legitimize the authority of the government,[2] especially in areas that were retaken since the 2014 election. The election took place during a severe economic crisis affecting the country, as well as a standstill in the civil war.
Figure 3: Conflict events related to the Syrian Presidential Election between 24 – 30 May 2021. Data from The Carter Center and ACLED.
26 May
The election was held in GoS-controlled territory. President Bashar Assad voted in the city of Douma, Rural Damascus Governorate, the site of the 2018 chemical attack.[1] Protests criticizing the election were reported in Dara’a and Idlib Governorates.[2] The poll was canceled in some towns in Quneitra and Dara’a Governorates after repeated threats against Baath Party members.[3]
27 May
Parades celebrating the election outcome were reported in Damascus city[1] and in Tartous city.[2] GoS Air Force Intelligence and State Security reportedly arrested 14 civilians in Aleppo city for not participating in the elections.[3] Protests against the election were reported across Dara’a Governorate.[4] GoS armed forces violently crackdown on an anti-election demonstration in Dara’a city.[5]
Image Source: https://www.enabbaladi.net/archives/484266
28 May
Bashar Assad was declared the winner of the election, winning 95% of the vote.[1] Russia, Iran, China, and Venezuela congratulated President Bashar Assad on his election victory.[2] The UN Special Envoy Geir Pedersen said that the election was not part of the political process established by UNSC resolution 2254, and reiterated the need for UN-administered election.[3]
Image Source: https://www.enabbaladi.net/archives/484921
Northeast Syria
Conscription in Northeast Syria
In 2019, the Kurdish Autonomous Administration (KAA) adopted a controversial conscription law for territories under its control.[1] The Syrian Network For Human Rights has claimed that the conscription of teachers has deprived half a million students of a proper education.[2] Additionally, people in the region have argued that the forcible recruitment and arrests by the SDF have disrupted economic life.[3] The KAA has also complained about the continuing use of GoS curriculum in schools in the area. Teachers have argued that the use of GoS curriculum is necessary for purposes of recognition of credentials by other educational institutions in Syria.[4]
Figure 4: Forced conscription in SDF-controlled territory between 24 –30 May 2021. Data from The Carter Center and ACLED.
26 May
The predominantly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) established new checkpoints in Ar-Raqqa city and arrested young men for conscription purposes.[1]
Image Source: https://tinyurl.com/23nx65zk
27 May
The SDF reportedly arrested 150 men in Ar-Raqqa city and nearby villages for avoiding conscription.[1]
Image Source: https://halabtodaytv.net/archives/189521
28 May
The SDF reportedly forcibly conscripted young men in Ar-Raqqa city, Al-Hassakah City, Deir-ez-Zor city, and in Manbij, eastern Aleppo Governorate.[1]
Image Source: https://tinyurl.com/9jd27k7w
Endnotes
[1] Figure 1 depicts areas of the dominant actors’ control and influence. While “control” is a relative term in a complex, dynamic conflict, territorial control is defined as an entity having power over use of force as well as civil/administrative functions in an area. Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah maintain a presence in Syrian government-controlled territory. Non-state organized armed groups (NSOAG), including the Kurdish-dominated SDF and Turkish-backed opposition groups operate in areas not under GoS control. The area along the junction of the Syrian border with Iraq and Jordan is a 55km de-confliction zone, established by the US-led coalition that also includes a number of aligned local armed groups. Patrols are also depicted in the map to show the presence of actors that may have influence in an area. This is particularly relevant as US and Russian forces regularly patrol towns and routes in the northeast. While they do not control local administration or local forces, there is an assumption of a high degree of coordination with local de facto authorities. Data collected is by the publicly available project ACLED .
Since 2012, The Carter Center's Conflict Resolution Program has endeavored to analyze opensource information related to the Syrian conflict in as much detail as possible, with the goal of assisting mediators and conflict responders with up-to-date, detailed analysis of developments on the ground. Using these publicly available resources, as well as information gleaned from regular consultations with stakeholders, the Center has documented and mapped 155,000 conflict events in Syria, with support from ACLED, as well as the ever-changing relations between armed groups. For more information, visit our Support for Peace in Syria page on The Carter Center's website. The Center's Syria Project also produces weekly conflict summaries, covering the main developments of the week. To sign up, please visit our website and select "Subscribe Now".
For queries or comments about this report, please contact kate.keator@cartercenter.org
