NWS La Crosse 2025 Spring Flood Outlook
Portions of the Upper Mississippi River, Wisconsin River, and various tributaries across SE Minnesota, SW Wisconsin, and NE Iowa
Overall Outlook
The overall Spring Flood Outlook across the Driftless Region is below normal. A well-below normal snowpack for this time of year is the primary reason for the below-normal probability. Other factors that reinforce a lower chance of spring flooding are: rivers are flowing near-normal for this time of year, soil moisture is below normal, and abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions are present. One condition leading to an elevated risk of spring flooding is the abnormally deep frost depths due to prolonged periods of colder weather when little to no snow depth was present.
These conditions can and often change. The biggest factor affecting spring flood risks are the weather conditions during the sensitive period of melting snow. This year, without the presence of a snowpack, future precipitation is the main driver of any flood risk moving forward.
Planned Outlook Update Schedule:
- February 13th, 2025
- February 27th, 2025
- March 13th, 2025
Spring Flood Factors
The following factors are the primary antecedent conditions monitored to assess the potential for spring flooding.
Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)
As of mid-March, the only remaining snowpack across our area is in the upper reaches of the Upper Mississippi drainage basin in northern Wisconsin and northern Minnesota. This remaining snowpack is not expected to significantly increase local streamflows at this time.
(text above is current as of March 13th, 2025-mapping to the right will update each day)
Ranked Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)
The image to the right is the North Central River Forecast Center's (NCRFC) modeled SWE values compared against their historical record of modeled SWE values of 70 years from 1949 to 2019.
As of March 11th, our entire upstream drainage basins are below-normal with most locations near the lowest values observed for this time of year within the 70 year record from 1949 to 2019. As seen above, there is little to no snowpack remaining at this time.
(text above is current as of March 11th, 2025 - mapping to the right will update every Tuesday morning with values as of the previous Monday)
Drought Conditions
Drought conditions across our area range from "Abnormally Dry" to "Moderate Drought" based on the U.S. Drought Monitor (a partnership between the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration).
Slider map of U.S. Drought Monitor -- image on the left is from before soils began to freeze on October 29th, 2024, the image on the right is the most recent update from March 11th, 2025.
Soil Moisture
Soil moisture conditions across our area roughly mirror the U.S. Drought Monitor seen above. While locations across parts of NE Iowa are in the 5th to 30th percentile, the rest of our area and upstream drainage basins range from roughly the 25th percentile to 50th percentile.
Slider map of NASA's GRACE-based Root Zone (top meter, or 39 inches, of soil) Soil Moisture Drought Indicator -- image on the left is from before soils began to freeze on Oct 28th, 2024, the image on the right is the most recent update from March 10th, 2025.
Frost Depth & Soil Temperatures
(To view frost depth and soil temperature data, click on the map to the right and zoom in to your area of interest to see details)
Frost Depth
With multiple blasts of cold, arctic air this winter and lack of appreciable snow cover, frost depths across the Upper Mississippi River drainage basin are fairly deep, ranging from roughly 12 to 36 inches.
While there has been some thaw so far this spring (top 1.5" thawed as of March 13th 9AM at NWS La Crosse), any future precipitation will have a harder time infiltrating the soils until the remaining frost thaws, leading to more surface water runoff into area waterways.
(text above is current as of March 13th, 2025-mapping values to the right represent the latest measurement taken within the last seven days, so the observation times/dates vary)
Soil Temperatures
Soil temperature data can be used to compliment frost depth data. Assessing temperatures at multiple soil depths can help illustrate how close the ground is to thawing (and can absorb snow melt and liquid precipitation) throughout the first few feet of soil.
(text above is current as of March 13th, 2025-mapping values to the right represent the latest measurement taken within the last seven days, so the observation times/dates vary)
Current River Levels
Rivers across much of the Upper Mississippi River Basin are flowing near- to above-normal for this time of year. We are beginning to enter the season when we typically experience melting snow entering waterways.
(text above is current as of March 13th, 2025-mapping below will update each day)
Data shown above represents streamflow percentile data over the last 7 days compared to the same 7-day window over the entire period of record maintained by the United States Geological Survey (USGS).
Legend Provided from USGS WaterWatch
Climate Outlooks
Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) for the 6 to 10 day, 8 to 14 day, and 3 to 4 week windows. Images from the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks update daily by mid-afternoon. The 3 to 4 week outlooks update weekly on Friday, around mid-afternoon. A text version of the 6 to 10 & 8 to 14 day outlooks can be found here , 3 to 4 week outlook here .
6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook
Warmer than normal conditions are favored (40 to 60% chance) during March 18th to March 22nd.
(text above is current as of March 12th, 2025-mapping to the right will update each day)
6 to 10 Day Precipitation Outlook
There is a weak signal (33 to 40% chance) suggesting above-normal precipitation is favored during March 18th to March 22nd.
(text above is current as of March 12th, 2025-mapping to the right will update each day)
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
Warmer than normal conditions are favored (40 to 50% chance) during March 20th to March 26th.
(text above is current as of March 12th, 2025-mapping to the right will update each day)
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
There is a weak signal (33 to 40% chance) suggesting above-normal precipitation during March 20th to March 26th.
(text above is current as of March 12th, 2025-mapping to the right will update each day)
3 to 4 Week Temperature Outlook
Warmer than normal conditions are favored (50 to 70% chance) during March 22nd to April 4th. This does not suggest that the entire two-week window will have warmer than normal temperatures, just that the two-week window as a whole is favored for above-normal temperatures.
(text above is current as of March 7th, 2025-mapping to the right will update each Friday)
3 to 4 Week Precipitation Outlook
There is a weak signal (50 to 60% chance) suggesting above- normal precipitation is favored during March 22nd to April 4th.
(text above is current as of March 7th, 2025-mapping to the right will update each Friday)
7-Day Forecast
The various forecast maps and images below will update regularly. When it comes to a spring flood, weather conditions that reduce a flood threat are light or little precipitation and a slow and steady snow melt. Weather conditions that increase a flood threat are heavy or prolonged periods of precipitation and/or a fast snowmelt and surface runoff.
Precipitation
The image to the right represents the precipitation forecast for the next 7 days (168 hours). While it is possible some of this precipitation falls as snow, the amounts represent an estimate of what the liquid equivalent of that snow will be.
(Map to the right updates multiple times a day and may not be representative when compared to the conditions discussed on Spring Flood Outlook days)
Detailed 7-Day Weather Forecast by Location
Click the graphic to the right and scroll down for detailed local forecast information. To select a different location, you can click on the map to move the white dot for a new forecast.
The table below the map shows the latest 7-day weather forecast at a glance.
Flood Risk by River Location
The map tour below highlights each location's individual weekly flooding probabilities. These images and probabilities will update every 2 weeks during the Spring Flood Outlook window.
Official River Forecasts
The map below shows an example of NOAA's National Water Prediction Service (NWPS) website which hosts the official NWS river forecasts and observations. Clicking the map will open a new tab and bring you to the website: https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/ARX
Example image of the NWS's National Water Prediction Service website centered around La Crosse, Wisconsin.
10-Day River Outlook
The map tour below highlights each location's individual 10-day flooding probabilities based on the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS). These images and probabilities update twice daily all year long and include 10 days of future probabilistic precipitation, snowmelt, and temperature values.
Unlike the official river forecasts, these probabilistic hydrographs are generated automatically, with no human forecaster intervention to account for regulation or rapidly changing weather conditions. They are best used prior to precipitation events. More information about these images can be found here . Additional hydrologic information can be found on our National Water Prediction Service website .
*During winter months, there are often differences between the river observations and HEFS probabilistic output in northern regions. This is due to ice in the river channel affecting the gage readings and consequently showing flows that are not representative of the actual flow occurring in the river.
