Investing in a Resilient Future

The Baltimore Regional Transportation Board (BRTB) is seeking  public comments through Tuesday, June 20  on three transportation-related documents – the Resilience 2050 long-range transportation plan, 2024-2027 Transportation Improvement Program and associated Air Quality Conformity Determination.

The Resilience 2050 long-range transportation plan (LRTP) seeks to best utilize the Baltimore region’s limited transportation resources to maintain and improve our transportation system. Long-term planning for the transportation system is critical to ensure that the Baltimore region grows and develops in a way that is consistent with regional goals and objectives.

The BRTB updates the region’s LRTP every four years as required by federal regulations, allowing for ongoing reevaluation based on changing conditions.

The BRTB selected the theme of resilience and adapting to the challenges of a changing tomorrow for this LRTP. Resilience is necessary for the ongoing performance of our transportation system, our environment, our economy and our livelihoods. 

Resilience 2050 includes a mix of projects that add to or enhance our region’s transportation system and may receive federal funding in the years 2028-2050. These include transit, bicycle, pedestrian, roadway and interchange projects. Many of these projects expand roadway or transit capacity, while others help our transportation system to function more efficiently or seek to preserve existing transportation infrastructure.

Resilience 2050 is an initiative of the BRTB, the metropolitan planning organization for the Baltimore region.  Learn more about the BRTB on our website. 

Planning a transportation system for generations to come is a complex task. Many factors and trends—some known, some anticipated and some unknown at this time—will affect the regional transportation network in the future. 

Socioeconomic Forecasts: How many people will live here? Where will they work and what kind of transportation service will they want and need? The BRTB’s Cooperative Forecasting Group developed population, household and employment forecasts through 2050 for the Baltimore region. This graphic reflects the 30-year period from 2020-2050:

Demographic Trends: Analysis of demographic trends plays a critical role in the planning process. Resilience 2050 highlights demographic trends likely to have significant impacts upon the future of the Baltimore region such as population change, the aging of the population, an anticipated decline in the working age population, and changes in work from home patterns.

Transportation-specific factors and trends: The BRTB considered a variety of factors and trends related to how the transportation system can adapt to an uncertain future. We explored these issues in depth over the past year in a  series of white papers  on topics including:

• Environmental issues and challenges including greenhouse gas emissions, adapting to and mitigating measures for climate change and the health of the Chesapeake Bay,
• Creating connected, safe and equitable active transportation and transit networks that meet the daily needs of all users,
• Highway safety concerns including distracted and impaired driving, non-motorist safety and speeding,
• Supporting freight movement throughout the region and adapting freight delivery to accommodate changing technologies and consumer habits and
• Emerging and existing technologies including Mobility on Demand, micromobility, electric vehicles and connected and automated vehicles, ensuring that the implementation of these technologies supports regional goals and strategies.

Ideally, the region would keep all roads, bridges and sidewalks safe, in good condition and congestion free as well as build a transit system that is in good operating condition and one that everyone would love to ride.

Unfortunately, this scenario costs more than our available resources. There are always more projects submitted than the region can afford to include in the LRTP. The projects included in the draft of Resilience 2050 are a carefully selected mix that take account of the level of resources the region reasonably expects to be available.

Project Submittal: Local jurisdictions and state agencies submitted 98 candidate projects for Resilience 2050.

Project Scoring: Limited financial resources means that some projects will be too expensive to include in Resilience 2050. We prioritize projects for inclusion in Resilience 2050 based on their anticipated impacts on regional goals. A project’s total score consists of two parts:

• Policy Score: Project sponsors rank projects as low, medium or high priority. Projects receive additional points if the project already has committed funding.
• Technical Score: Projects are scored based on their anticipated impacts to safety, accessibility, complete streets, mobility, environmental conservation, security and economic prosperity.

Most technical scoring criteria include a subset of points devoted to the anticipated impacts on Environmental Justice populations, which include low-income and minority persons. Transit projects are eligible for five more technical scoring points than roadway projects in an effort to respond to public comments recommending improving transit accessibility, reliability and frequency. This results in a slight advantage for transit projects in the scoring process.

The policy and technical scores are added to yield the total project score. Project scores ranged from 29 to 78, with a maximum score of 90 for roadway projects and 95 for transit projects.

The BRTB selected a list of projects, known as the Preferred Alternative, to include in Resilience 2050 based on project scores, estimated project costs and the financial forecast. Ninety-two of the 98 submitted projects were selected, including all 36 transit projects and 56 roadway projects. The majority (79) of these projects are expansion projects that add roadway or transit capacity, while 13 are large-scale system preservation projects. The chart below shows a breakdown of anticipated expansion investments in Resilience 2050 by project type and time period. Overall, transit and roadway investments comprise 41% and 59% of expansion investments, respectively.

The Resilience 2050 Preferred Alternative also includes $250 million set-aside to support various strategies intended to improve air quality since the Baltimore region does not meet all federal air quality standards. These include:

• Transportation System Management and Operations strategies intended to optimize the performance of existing roadway infrastructure without adding capacity,
• Complete Streets strategies focused on creating roadways that are safe and comfortable for all users and that increase equity and access to destinations,
• Strategies to reduce emissions through cleaner technologies, capital improvements and behavioral incentive programs and
• Regional active transportation priority projects identified by the BRTB Bicycle and Pedestrian Advisory Group (included in interactive map below).

Note, this story map and the interactive project map are for visualization purposes. Detailed information about each project identified in the interactive Resilience 2050 map can be viewed at  publicinput.com/Resilience2050 .

The Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) documents the anticipated timing, cost and rationale for federally-funded or regionally significant transportation improvements to be made in the Baltimore region over the next four years. Federally-funded projects receive funds from either the Federal Highway Administration or Federal Transit Administration. Regionally significant projects may not necessarily be federally-funded but are of regional importance.

In accordance with federal guidelines, the TIP is a translation of recommendations from the long-range transportation plan (LRTP) into a short-term program of improvements. This includes specific capacity improvements that have been identified in the LRTP, as well as system preservation projects and operational initiatives that are supported in the LRTP but have not been previously detailed.

The draft 2024-2027 TIP includes 143 projects, 13 of which are new to this year’s TIP, 127 of which carry over from last year's TIP and 3 of which were in previous TIPs, but did not appear last year for various reasons.

This document also includes Transportation Analysis Zones classified as Environmental Justice areas where there is a greater concentration of low-income or minority populations than their respective regional averages. This analysis seeks to ensure that the benefits and burdens of transportation investments are shared as equitably as possible among all affected communities.

Note, this story map and the interactive TIP project map are for visualization purposes. Detailed information about each project identified in the interactive TIP projects map can be viewed at  publicinput.com/Resilience2050 .

The Baltimore region does not meet the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ozone, a criteria pollutant, and so must review its current transportation plans and programs to ensure conformity with the State Air Quality Implementation Plan. Ozone is caused by a chemical reaction between sunlight and the emissions released from cars and trucks, including Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) and Nitrogen Oxides (NOx). High levels of ground level ozone contribute to unhealthy air, a significant public health concern.

• The Baltimore region is a “moderate” nonattainment area for the ground-level ozone standard set in 2015. This means that levels of ozone pollution in the air are slightly higher than the federally allowable amount of 70 parts per billion (ppb).

• The level of ozone that the region experienced between 2018 and 2020 as a “design value,” or the value that the EPA uses to determine whether a region is reaching the standard, was 72 ppb. As a result, the region is not attaining the standard and the BRTB must conduct a conformity determination.

• The air quality analysis evaluates whether the transportation projects in a region’s TIP and LRTP would hinder the progress of that region attaining the air quality standard.

The results of the emissions analysis of the draft Resilience 2050 LRTP and 2024-2027 TIP, as shown in the tables below, demonstrate that emissions are below levels necessary to demonstrate conformity to the 1997 8-hour ozone standard, the 2008 8-hour ozone standard and the 2015 8-hour ozone standard.

Average summer weekday emissions of VOCs and NOx resulting from the region’s transportation network in 2023, 2025, 2035, 2045 and 2050 are below the approved State Implementation Plan budgets.

Let us know what you think. Over $74 billion in transportation investments and improvements are programmed and planned in the TIP and LRTP. These investments will shape our region’s future for decades to come. Please let us know what you think about these draft plans.

If you are interested in learning more about the draft Resilience 2050 LRTP, 2024-2027 TIP and Air Quality Conformity Determination, please join us for a virtual public meeting on Wednesday, May 24 at 12:00 p.m. EST. We will also host seven in-person public meetings around the region.

We welcome your comments on these transportation projects through Tuesday, June 20. You can share your thoughts at any of our public meetings or with any of the following methods:

Website:  PublicInput.com/Resilience2050  Email:  Resilience2050@publicinput.com  Voicemail: Call 855-925-2801 x1874 and leave a voice message (toll free) Text: Text the Keyword resilience2050 to the # 73224 Social media: Reach @BaltoMetroCo or @BmoreInvolved with #BRTBListens