Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy (CEDS) 2023-2028
Androscoggin Valley Council of Governments (AVCOG), Maine
Introduction
The Androscoggin Valley region in western Maine encompasses 4,429 square miles of significant natural resources (woods, fields, mountains, lakes, and rivers). Over 100 communities, townships, and plantations are located within this Tri-County area. As of the 2020 Census, the region has a total population of 198,000 and a total civilian labor force of 94,000.
The Androscoggin Valley Council of Governments (AVCOG) is a voluntary membership organization for communities located within Androscoggin, Franklin, and Northern Oxford Counties. Currently, 95 percent of the communities representing almost 100 percent of the region's population are members. AVCOG is governed by a General Assembly, whose members are appointed by their communities.
In 1976, the AVCOG region was designated as an Economic Development District (EDD) by the U.S. Department of Commerce's Economic Development Administration (EDA).
The Androscoggin Valley Economic Development District (AVEDD) includes Androscoggin County, Franklin County, and the majority of Oxford County. Lewiston-Auburn is designated as its economic growth center.
Lewiston Park
EDDs are multi-jurisdictional entities, commonly composed of multiple counties, as is the case for the AVEDD. Leveraging the involvement of public, private, and non-profit organiziations, EDDs help lead the locally-based, regionally-driven economic development planning process.
As part of the region-wide collaboration process, EDDs must develop a Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy (CEDS) document every five years.
Community fair in Fryeburg
AVCOG developed this 2023-2028 CEDS to address strategic priority areas of the economy for the next five planning years.
Unless another committee is developed, the AVCOG Executive Committee functions as the District CEDS Committee to review the region's status and establish economic development priorities for the district.
Region Overview
Demographics
Demographics provide an overall picture of the resident population. They showcase the historic growth and distribution of the population across the region.
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As of the 2020 Decennial Census, the region's population was 198,000. From 2010 to 2020 Maine grew 2.6% while the region grew by just 1%. Historically, the region saw its highest growth rates in the 1970s when it grew by 11.8%, or 1.1% annually.
Historic population chart
The population in the region is aging.
In 2010, the median age was estimated at 41.7 years old. In 2020, the median age increased to 43.7 years old.
Population distribution by age and sex
While the race and ethnicity of the population are changing, the region remains predominantly White, Non-Hispanic.
Population by race and ethnicity
Sixty-nine percent of the region's residents were born in Maine and approximately 2.7% were born outside the United States. An estimated 54% of the foreign-born residents are naturalized citizens. And, 68% of the foreign-born entered the U.S. before 2010.
Asia and Africa are among the top 10 spots where people move from into the AVCOG region.
Within the United States, the majority of new residents come from other areas of Maine.
Map of In Migrants to the AVCOG Region
Socioeconomics
The socioeconomics of the region provide an overview of the education, income, and employment of its residents. These are essential baseline metrics for understanding available workforce and social equity across the region.
22.6% of the region's population aged 25 and over have a college degree. This is below both the state and the nation which are estimated at 33%.
Educational attainment chart
Since 2015, high school graduation rates have declined in both the region and the state. The largest decline is seen in Franklin County, which saw its graduation rates go from 84.2% in 2015 to 76% in 2021.
This is an important metric that is reflective of a strong workforce. High school graduates are more likely to have higher wages and lower unemployment than those who do not graduate.
Graduation rates, 2015 to 2021
At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the region and the state both had fewer unemployed residents than the nation as a whole. As of February 2022, the U.S. unemployment was 4.1%, while both Maine and the region were at 4.2%.
Monthly unemployment rate for the U.S., Maine, and the Region
According to the 2020 American Community Survey estimates, median household income for the region was $53,000. This is lower than both the state at $59,500 and the nation at $65,000.
The poverty rate for the region, estimated to be 12.1% in 2020, is slightly lower than the nation's 12.8% but higher than the state's rate of 11.1%. Areas with a poverty rate higher than the region are depicted in blue on the map below. Areas that have significantly higher poverty tend to be in the more urbanized portions of the region.
A Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats (SWOT) Analysis is used to evaluate a competitive position and to develop strategic planning tools to address goals. This CEDS SWOT Analysis was developed through a copious literature review, a comprehensive interview process of regional leaders, and data collected from detailed surveys of key stakeholders.
Adequate sustainable infrastructure, quality jobs, and youth opportunites were the top priorities identified through the SWOT Analysis.
Strengths
Recreation
Love of the Region
Forest Products
Tourism
Higher Education
Resilience of the People - "Mainers"
Immigration
Natural Assets
Healthcare
Manufacturing
Weaknesses
Workforce Availability
Aging Public Infrastructure
Flat Population Growth
Aging Population
Housing Costs and Stock
Public Transportation
Lack of Innovation/Entrepreneurship
Lack of Services for Elderly/Vulnerable Populations
Based on community input and direction from the CEDS Steering Committee, the Strategic Direction and Action Plan examines the region's vision then sets goals to achieve this vision.
Key Topics
Information from the Key Topics contributed to the development of this CEDS. More details on each of these Key Topics can be found in the CEDS Appendix I.
Because these Key Topic areas are interrelated, they are equally important. Thus, they are presented in alphabetical order.
Access to Broadband
Access to Capital
Agriculture
Energy
Forestry
Healthcare
Housing
Manufacturing
Migration
The Land and The People
Tourism
Transportation
Urban and Rural Connectivity
Workforce
Vision Statement
Our shared Vision for western Maine is a place of sustained quality and natural beauty, where an abundance of clean lakes, river valleys, mountains, farmland, forests, and trails frame our communities and offer an exceptional residential and business environment.
Our region has a healthy, resilient economy, and workforce that meets the varied and changing needs of the region.
We envision a welcoming place where all people can live, prosper, and spend their whole lives!
Goals
In advancing the Vision Statement, the region will focus on seven goals for economic development.
Note: These goals are not listed priority order
Goal: Business Development and Support
Ready access to capital and technical assistance is critical for business development and retention. Entrepreneurship, innovation, and expansion; workforce retention, training, and attraction; and integration of new residents are key steps to meeting business and workforce needs.
Strategies:
Expand marketing of programs and technical services that support business and workforce needs.
Maintain technical assistance to small businesses (e.g. business advising).
Work with the Maine Department of Economic and Community Development (DECD) and other partners to attract new businesses, for example through the DECD’s new site locator online tool.
Support research, innovation, and entrepreneurship initiatives.
Develop an inclusive innovation ecosystem.
Ensure loan program availability and technical assistance services to small businesses in key sectors.
Goal: Exceptional Workforce
An available workforce prepared to sustain current and emerging needs of our businesses and communities.
Strategies:
Study workforce and employment imbalances and determine the needs of the region’s businesses.
Maintain and enhance the existing workforce training pipeline and create new ones for in-demand industries.
Ensure strong partnerships with workforce and training institutions.
Support the increase of micro-credentials and industry-specific certification programs.
Create mentoring programs to partner youth with older or retired workers.
Support job shadowing, internship, and apprenticeship opportunities within targeted industries.
Explore programming to support disadvantaged youth participation.
Expand digital access to enable remote work and learning.
Partner with statewide and regional efforts for workforce development and attraction.
Goal: Resilient Public Infrastructure
Resilient, well-maintained public infrastructure is fundamental to a sustainable economy through the movement of people, goods, energy, water, and communications.
Strategies:
Enhance recreational, urban, and rural connections through public transportation.
Seek funding to improve regional transportation systems, including roads, transit, airports, rail, bicycle/pedestrian, and multi-modal infrastructure; and prioritize projects identified in the Regional Strategic Transportation Investments Plan.
Conduct a regional broadband needs assessment and digital equity plan.
Increase access to broadband in underserved areas.
Develop a regional energy plan.
Support renewable energy generation and climate adaptation projects, including small-scale solar, biomass, wind, and hydro projects.
Identify and seek funding to improve and expand the region’s public infrastructure to meet both commercial and residential needs (e.g. water/sewer, stormwater).
Goal: Thriving Communities and Regional Centers
The vitality of our communities will be supported by high-quality healthcare and education systems; expanded recreational and cultural opportunities; and healthy food from local agricultural sources with bustling downtowns that contribute to the quality of place that make the region attractive for business and residents.
Strategies:
Maintain, enhance, and fund historic storefronts and downtown “main streets” for tourists, businesses, and residents.
Support and promote cultural centers, public spaces, and programming that focuses on place-based assets.
Market rural town planning services to assist with recovery and resiliency planning.
Develop initiatives to retain and increase the population.
Support initiatives that ensure healthcare and social services is accessible to all residents (ex. rural, aging, disabled, disadvantaged).
Encourage the maintenance and creation of recreational amenities.
Champion cultural institutions, such as museums, theaters, and playhouses, as community anchor institutions, as a brand for the region, and as a way to honor communities while increasing tourist activity.
Bolster local food initiatives across the region, such as food councils.
Aid the distribution and access to local food through food hubs, marketing, and buying local campaigns.
Goal: Competitive Natural Assets
Sustain the high quality of unique natural assets and our built environment to maximize our regional competitiveness.
Strategies:
Promote the region’s brand and its communities as important places for residents and tourists to understand the value of the region and its communities.
Leverage Maine’s Lakes & Mountains Tourism Council; and other partners to market the region’s year-round tourism activities.
Implement regional destination management plans.
Promote and aid the region’s communities in enrolling in the State’s Community Resilience Partnership.
Support sustainable business practices to prevent asset degradation.
Goal: Housing
Encourage, support, and plan for the development of more affordable and accessible housing of all types.
Strategies:
Educate residents on housing options and programs.
Encourage the development of various housing types and densities.
Support the creation of workforce housing near employment centers.
Evaluate regional housing trends and develop strategic housing partnerships.
For a deeper dive into the Strategic Direction and Action Plan,
including the Key Topic areas, see the full CEDS report and appendices.
Economic Resilience
Resilience is the ability to anticipate, adapt, respond, and recover to unexpected change. Planning for economic resilience includes (1) anticipating potential risks, (2) knowing how those risks might impact your region economically, and (3) creating a detailed response to protecting those identified risk areas.
The resilience section of the AVCOG CEDS identifies regional vulnerabilities with the goal of preventing, mitigating, and responding to economic disruptions. Addressing resilience is a key step in expanding economic development strategies to include potential major losses due to natural disasters and other events that disrupt economic activities.
The Regional Economic Resilience Strategy details the following strategies for use in prioritizing ecnomic resilience activites for the region:
The CEDS Evaluation Framework is used to gauge progress on the goals through measurable outcomes and performance measures during the proposed CEDS performance period. This methodology focuses on measurable outcomes of the goals and strategic actions identified in this document.
The CEDS is implemented and tracked for ongoing plan maintenance, reporting on progress, and updates by the EDD through its staff. Over the next five years, the annual assessment process will show how the region addressed these goals, and how the outcomes identify areas that need to be further addressed.
Implementation
The AVCOG Executive Committee approves Regional priorities through the adoption of this CEDS. The AVCOG Board provides direction to AVCOG Staff who serve as a conduit between the Board and economic development work throughout the Region.
Year 1 Implementation
AVCOG Executive Committee will adopt the updated CEDS.
AVCOG staff will convene CEDS implementation meetings
Working Groups may be formed from CEDS implementation meetings.
AVCOG staff will produce an end-of-year report of CEDS implementation activities, including gathering data on outcomes. The report will be provided to the Executive Committee, as needed.
Years 2-4 Implementation
AVCOG staff will organize semi-annual CEDS implementation meetings.
Working Groups may be formed, as necessary, during CEDS implementation meetings.
AVCOG staff and Working Groups will record successes and challenges.
AVCOG staff will produce end-of-year reports of CEDS implementation activities, including gathering data on indicators. The report will be provided to the Executive Committee, as needed.
Year 5 Implementation
AVCOG staff will convene CEDS implementation meetings, as appropriate.
New Working Groups may be formed, as necessary, during CEDS implementation meetings.
AVCOG staff and Working Groups will record successes and challenges.
AVCOG staff will engage appropriate stakeholders in the five-year CEDS review and plan update process (reserve a full year for the 2028 update).
AVCOG staff will produce an end-of-year report of CEDS implementation activities, including gathering data on outcomes. The report will be provided to the Executive Committee,as needed.
Annual Reviews
This CEDS will be reviewed and progress reported annually in the U.S. EDA required CEDS Annual Performance Report. Annual review will include a summary assessment of progress on the Strategies and Outcomes outlined in the CEDS, as well as updates to background statistics describing the state of the regional economy.
CEDS Regional Benchmarks 2023-2028
Conclusion
The 2023-2028CEDS sets a course for the economic development of the AVCOG region. It includes an analysis of the region’s major SWOT, and presents a Vision Statement and goals that respond to input from surveys, interviews, facilitated discussions, and a review of existing plans and documents.
The CEDS identifies strategic actions that can move the region forward on its goals, and provides a framework within which to track progress and outcomes annually over the next five years of this CEDS timeline. The timeline of outcomes depends on numerous factors. Conditions can change overnight. Therefore, the CEDS emphasizes a focus on actions that can be adapted to changing conditions, such as resilient infrastructure, access to capital, and job training that reflects updating of education and credentials, as needed.
Full Report
This overview provides highlights from the AVCOG 2023-2028 Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy. Please refer to the full report and appendices I and II for complete details.
