Climate Change and Pacific Cod

Threatened by warming waters, can climate-ready fisheries help this keystone species survive into the future?

Deckhands lower a baited pot over the deck of the F/V Centurion while cod fishing in Kachemak Bay, Alaska

About this story map

Fisheries and the communities that depend on them must adapt to rapidly changing ocean conditions. In the North Pacific Ocean, the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) Pacific cod population collapsed after an extreme marine heatwave event 2014-2016.

Communities and fisheries in the GOA are still picking up the pieces after the cod collapse. We are just beginning to understand the long-term consequences of heatwaves on the Alaskan ecosystem.

This story map discusses the biological and physical events leading up to the Pacific cod collapse as well as climate-ready fishery management solutions to help the region’s managers and communities adapt to climate change.  


The Gulf of Alaska Ecosystem

Gulf of Alaska map
Gulf of Alaska map
A glacier in Alaska
A glacier in Alaska
Humpback whale feeding on a herring
Humpback whale feeding on a herring

Pacific Cod

A keystone species in the North Pacific

Pacific Cod (Gadus macrocephalus)

Image Source: NOAA Fisheries

What is a Pacific Cod?

  • Pacific cod Gadus macrocephalus is a ray-finned “true cod,” found across the continental shelf, ranging from the Yellow Sea to the Bering Strait, along the Aleutian Islands, to as far south as Los Angeles.
  • Pacific Cod have 3 dorsal fins and catlike whiskers on their bottom jaw.
  • They can grow to be up to 50 inches in length, 50 pounds in weight, and up to 18 years of age.
  • Pacific cod swim in large schools at depths up to 3,000 feet.
  • Pacific cod is a significant source of protein and vitamin A, vitamin D, vitamin E, and omega-3 fatty acids.
  • As adults, Pacific cod are voracious predators that live near the seafloor and forage on fish, crab, shrimp, and other invertebrates.

Pacific cod are vulnerable in warm water

    Pacific cod are very sensitive to temperature. Pacific cod egg hatch success declines substantially in water above or below 4-5°C. Warmer waters can also harm maturing cod by reducing growth and reducing prey availability.
Pacific Cod (Gadus macrocephalus) larvae

Pacific cod yolk sack larvae

Proportion of successful Pacific cod egg hatch as a function of temperature

Proportion of successful Pacific cod egg hatch as a function of temperature (Laurel & Rogers 2020)

Economics/fleet profile

GOA Pacific cod are vitally important to Alaskan culture and the economy

Harvest values are based off state and federal harvests as reported via NMFS and ADFG

Harvest values are based off state and federal harvests as reported via NMFS and ADFG

  • GOA Pacific cod support a culturally and economically important fishery in Alaska.
  • GOA Pacific cod catch averaged nearly 77,000 tons from 2010 to 2016.
  • In 2017, Alaska-wide Pacific cod first wholesale production value was at a 12-year peak, worth an estimated US$510 million.
  • Pacific cod is also a significant protein source for human consumption internationally.
Fishing in the Gulf of Alaska
Aleut hunters wearing gut parkas

Marine Heatwaves

Climate change has made marine heatwave events worse around the world

Graph and 2013-2020 timeline showing summer sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska and unusual mortality events

Biological changes 

Copepod macro photography
School of herring, forage fish
Pacific Cod

Some victims of recent marine heatwaves

Fishing vessel in open water Gulf of Alaska
Fishing boat Tacoma, Wrangell Alaska

Climate-ready management

The rapid shifts in the Gulf of Alaska and resultant crash in the Pacific cod stock highlight the urgent need for climate-ready fisheries management globally.

Example of the types of typical nodes (mobile and fixed) that may be present in communication network supporting autonomous marine systems and operations (Zolich et al. 2019).
Satellite view of the Gulf of Alaska
Fishing skiffs tied up on the riverbank along the Kuskokwim River in the village of Akiachak, Summer, Southwest Alaska, USA.

Taking action

The story of Pacific cod in the Gulf of Alaska is part of a much larger story about the need to prepare fisheries—and adapt our management system—for climate change. It also highlights that there is not time to wait when it comes to making our fisheries ready for climate change. The impacts of climate change are happening real-time. 

Our marine ecosystem and fisheries are at a crossroads. For fisheries to survive the challenges of climate change, we need more research to understand how they will respond to changing ocean conditions. Then we need to implement robust, adaptive policies that tackle these problems head-on. Although some regional management councils are making progress on climate-ready fisheries policies, the example of Pacific cod highlights the need for national attention to this pressing issue. 

You can take action now: tell your members of Congress that you  support legislation  that will help our marine fisheries adapt to climate change.


References

Arimitsu, M.L., Piatt, J.F., Hatch, S., Suryan, R.M., Batten, S., Bishop, M.A., Campbell, R.W., Coletti, H., Cushing, D., Gorman, K. and Hopcroft, R.R. 2021. Heatwave‐induced synchrony within forage fish portfolio disrupts energy flow to top pelagic predators. Global change biology, 27(9), p.1859.

Barbeaux, S. J., Aydin, K., Fissek, B., Holsman, K., and Laurel, B. 2019. Assessment of the Pacific cod stock in the Gulf of Alaska.

Barbeaux, S. J., Holsman, K., and Zador, S. 2020. Marine Heatwave Stress Test of Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management in the Gulf of Alaska Pacific Cod Fishery. Frontiers in Marine Science, 7: 703.

Holsman, K. K., Haynie, A. C., Hollowed, A. B., Reum, J. C. P., Aydin, K., Hermann, A. J., Cheng, W., et al. 2020. Ecosystem-based fisheries management forestalls climate-driven collapse. Nature Communications, 11: 1–10. Nature Research. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18300-3 (Accessed 28 October 2020).

IPCC. 2019. IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. Technical Summary. 34 pp. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/11/04_SROCC_TS_FINAL.pdf.

Laurel, B. J., and Rogers, L. A. 2020. Loss of spawning habitat and prerecruits of Pacific cod during a Gulf of Alaska heatwave. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 77: 644–650. Canadian Science Publishing. http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/10.1139/cjfas-2019-0238 (Accessed 5 May 2020).

LKTKS Taskforce. 2020. Bering Sea Fishery Ecosystem Plan Local Knowledge, Traditional Knowledge, and Subsistence Taskforce. Anchorage, AK. 1–9 pp.

NOAA Fisheries. 2021. 2019-2020 Gray Whale Unusual Mortality Event along the West Coast and Alaska. https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/national/marine-life-distress/2019-2020-gray-whale-unusual-mortality-event-along-west-coast-and (Accessed 28 July 2020).

NPFMC. 2020a. Bering Sea Fishery Ecosystem Plan. https://www.npfmc.org/fishery-management-plan-team/bsfep/.

NPFMC. 2020b. FMP for Groundfish in the Gulf of Alaska. 152 pp. https://www.npfmc.org/wp-content/PDFdocuments/fmp/GOA/GOAfmp.pdf.

Piatt, J. F., Parrish, J. K., Renner, H. M., Schoen, S. K., Jones, T. T., Arimitsu, M. L., Kuletz, K. J., et al. 2020. Extreme mortality and reproductive failure of common murres resulting from the northeast Pacific marine heatwave of 2014-2016. PLOS ONE, 15: e0226087. Public Library of Science. https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0226087 (Accessed 28 July 2020).

Peterson Williams, M.J., Robbins Gisclair, B., Cerny-Chipman, E., LeVine, M. and Peterson, T., 2021. The heat is on: Gulf of Alaska Pacific cod and climate-ready fisheries. ICES Journal of Marine Science.

Raymond-Yakoubian, J., Raymond-Yakoubian, B., and Moncrieff, C. 2017. The incorporation of traditional knowledge into Alaska federal fisheries management. Marine Policy, 78: 132–142. Elsevier Ltd.

Siddon, E., and Zador, S. 2019. Ecosystem Stats Report 2019 Eastern Bering Sea. 223 pp. https://access.afsc.noaa.gov/REFM/REEM/ecoweb/pdf/2019EBSecosys.pdf.

Siddon, E. 2020. Ecosystem Status Report 2020 Eastern Bering Sea. 206 pp. https://apps-afsc.fisheries.noaa.gov/REFM/docs/2020/EBSecosys.pdf

Von Biela, V., Arimitsu, M., Piatt, J., Heflin, B., Schoen SK Trowbridge, J., and Clawson, C. 2019. Extreme reduction in nutritional value of a key forage fish during the Pacific marine heatwave of 2014-2016. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 613: 171–182. Inter-Research. https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v613/p171-182/ (Accessed 28 July 2020).

Walsh, J. E., Thoman, R. L., Bhatt, U. S., Bieniek, P. A., Brettschneider, B., Brubaker, M., ... & Iken, K. 2018. The high latitude marine heat wave of 2016 and its impacts on Alaska. Special Supplement to the EXPLAINING EXTREME EVENTS OF 2016 From A Climate Perspective. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99: S39–S43.

Yang, Q., Cokelet, E. D., Stabeno, P. J., Li, L., Hollowed, A. B., Palsson, W. A., Bond, N. A., et al. 2019. How “The Blob” affected groundfish distributions in the Gulf of Alaska. Fisheries Oceanography, 28: fog.12422. Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Zolich, A., Palma, D., Kansanen, K., Fjørtoft, K., Sousa, J., Johansson, K. H., Jiang, Y., et al. 2019. Survey on Communication and Networks for Autonomous Marine Systems. Journal of Intelligent and Robotic Systems: Theory and Applications, 95: 789–813. Springer

This story map was developed by M. Williams, J. Davies and P. Chambers of the Ocean Conservancy

Image Source: NOAA Fisheries

Pacific cod yolk sack larvae

Proportion of successful Pacific cod egg hatch as a function of temperature (Laurel & Rogers 2020)

Harvest values are based off state and federal harvests as reported via NMFS and ADFG