Crimea River
"Russia without Ukraine is a country. Russia with Ukraine is an Empire."
In my last current event assignment, I covered the ongoing border crisis between the republics of Poland and Belarus. It was my conclusion that this crisis is essentially a proxy conflict between the European Union – backing Poland – and the Russian Federation – backing Belarus. The European Union’s interest in this struggle is fairly obvious: Prevent illegal immigration into the European Union, which the public has become increasingly concerned about in recent years. However, what exactly Russia and Belarus hope to gain from marching refugees into Poland remains to be seen. In fact, this entire operation may be little more than camouflage for something else entirely. Russia’s true interest may lie in Ukraine.
The lands that are now Ukraine had for centuries been part of the Russian Empire, and later the Soviet Union before finally gaining its independence after the collapse of the former in 1991. This was a devastating blow to Russian power, as Ukraine was among its most valuable provinces. As the breadbasket of the region, rich in minerals, and commanding strategically vital warm-water ports along the Black Sea coast, it’s easy to see why Russia so coveted Ukraine. When the Russia-friendly Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych was deposed in 2014, Russia would resort to drastic action.
Russia responded by invading Crimea – an Autonomous Republic of Ukraine – drawing condemnations and sanctions the world over. While this attack did not escalate to open war between the two countries, it encouraged ethnic Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine (also called New Russia) to revolt. Russia has backed these separatists with manpower and equipment, fomenting a devastating Ukrainian civil war. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin has so far declined to annex these rebellious Russian republics. This may be changing soon, as Russia has been building up substantial forces along the Ukrainian border since April of this year. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Prime Minister Denys Shmygal predict that a Russian-backed coup d’etat and subsequent invasion is imminent.
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Ethno-linguistic map of Ukraine by John Pike
The Russian response to these allegations has been characteristically confusing. Of course, Putin himself denied that any intervention was planned, but offered no explanation for the military buildup, other than that it was Russian territory, and that it was their right to deploy troops as they see fit. Pyotr Tolstoy (Deputy Chairman of the State Duma) confirmed the worst and more, saying that “there won’t be any Ukraine.” Everything between these two extreme responses has been said by various Russian politicians. This is likely a coordinated effort to sow confusion.
Ukraine has responded to this threat by frequently applying to join both the European Union and NATO, thus earning it the protection of the American military. These efforts have failed, in part because Putin has drawn a line in the sand around this issue. If the United States and European Union do not commit to defending Ukraine before an invasion begins, it may be too late to save anyone, but if they do commit, they may make an invasion inevitable. Such is the heavy burden of global hegemony.
Works Cited:
Nardelli, Alberto, et al. “U.S. Warns Europe That Russia May Be Planning Ukraine Invasion.” Bloomberg.com, Bloomberg, 11 Nov. 2021, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-11/u-s-warns-europe-that-russian-troops-may-plan-ukraine-invasion.
Shinkman, Paul D. “Ukraine on High Alert as Threat of Russia-Backed Coup ...” Usnews.com, Usnews, 29 Nov. 2021, https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2021-11-29/ukraine-on-high-alert-as-threat-of-russia-backed-coup-looms.
Swan, Betsy Woodruff, and Paul McLeary. “Satellite Images Show New Russian Military Buildup near Ukraine.” POLITICO, POLITICO, 1 Nov. 2021, https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/01/satellite-russia-ukraine-military-518337.
Pike, John. “Ukraine Politics.” Globalsecurity.org, https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/ukraine/politics.htm.