Tropical Winds Newsletter

Welcome to the 2022 Summer edition of the Tropical Winds Newsletter. We here at NWS Miami hope everyone is having a wonderful summer so far. This addition will include:

1. A recap of the 2021/2022 dry season.
2. The beginning of the 2022 wet season including how Potential Tropical Cyclone One impacted South Florida (which later became Tropical Storm Alex).
3. Rip current formation and rip current safety.
4. An outlook for the rest of the 2022 wet season as well as the remainder of the 2022 Hurricane Season.
5. A look behind the scenes at the National Weather Service in Miami as Meteorologist Sammy Hadi launches a weather balloon.

It is a pristine summer afternoon at the beach with little clouds in the sky, a perceived paradise however there is more than meets the eye. Although conditions above the surface appear to be harmless, it is quite a different story under the surf. Breezy onshore winds from the same ridge of high pressure that has brought tranquil and quiet conditions to the beach have also resulted in one of the more subtle but hazardous phenomena that can be a common occurrence throughout the year: Rip Currents. Onshore winds along the beach can allow for waves to grow as they approach the coast, crashing up onto the beach as the ocean meets the land. As the water on the beach returns back towards the ocean, a channel of fast-moving water returning out to the ocean can develop. This current is referred to as a Rip Current and often takes places in a narrow channel between two sandbars. As the current intensifies, it can move up to speeds of eight feet per second, which rivals the speed of an Olympic Swimmer. Unassuming swimmers can be caught up in a rip current and pulled out to sea, it is important to understand that swimming against the current will only cause fatigue and allow for you to get pulled out further to sea. If you are caught in a rip current, do not swim against the current. Instead wait until you have an opportunity to swim parallel to shore, to break free of the rip current. Once you are away from the rip current and swimming parallel to shore, you can eventually work your way back to shore by swimming back towards the beach. 

Although PTC1 remained a disorganized and relatively unorganized system during its passage of South Florida, it brought several inches of rain in a short amount of time which led to several flash flood warnings across Southeast Florida and several viral social media clips of flooded neighborhoods and stalled out cars. Rainfall totals across the region ranged from widespread 5-8” of rainfall across Coastal Collier County with a few isolated spots reaching 9-10” rainfall totals, widespread 8-10” in Miami-Dade and Broward counties with a few isolated spots reaching 11-15” rainfall totals, widespread 4-7” in Palm Beach County with higher amounts of 8-10” in southern Palm Beach County.

Typical wet season thunderstorms the week prior to the arrival of the system allowed for soggy soils to occur even before the system arrived in South Florida, priming the urban areas for flooding. Outside of a few wind gusts to Tropical Storm force and some minor beach erosion, the main story with PTC1 was heavy rainfall on top of already saturated soils which lead to significant urban flooding during the early morning hours of June 4 th . PTC1 is a classic example that just because a system may not have a name or be strong in nature, does not mean that significant impacts are not possible. Freshwater flooding due to heavy rainfall is one of the most dangerous hazards when it comes to tropical cyclones and claims more lives on an annual basis than tropical-cyclone wind related fatalities. Stay informed and stay weather aware!

Twice a day, every day of the year, weather balloons are released simultaneously from almost 900 locations worldwide! This includes 92 released by the National Weather Service in the US and its territories. The balloon flights last for around 2 hours, can drift as far as 125 miles away, and rise up to over 100,000 ft. (about 20 miles) in the atmosphere! Join one of our NWS Miami Meteorologists as he preps, fills, and launches the morning weather balloon! 

The 2022 Hurricane Season is shapping up to be yet another above average season in the Atlantic Basin. Some of the factors that will influence tropical development this year will be :

• Ongoing La Niña likely to persist
• Above average ocean temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean
• Lighter winds aloft
• Enhanced west African monsoon, which supports stronger African Easterly Waves

Remember, Hurricane season is a marathon, not a sprint. Hurricane Season runs through November 30th. Be prepared and read for the possiblity of Tropical Storms or Hurricanes throughout the season. The months of August through October is the most active period for the Atlantic Basin. Seasonal outlooks and forecasts don’t tell most of the story. It is NOT a landfall forecast! Number of overall storms not an indicator of an area’s actual chances of being hit.

Hurricane Preparedness - Now is the Time

In addition to warm weather and great beaches, Florida is often synonymous with hurricanes. The official Atlantic (including the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico) hurricane season runs June 1st through November 30th.  However,these dates only encompass the most likely times that tropical systems can occur. Tropical cyclones, which include hurricanes, Tropical storms, and tropical depressions, bring many hazards as they approach, and strong winds may not be the largest hazard for your area. Tropical systems may bring:   

  ● Storm surge: This is the abnormal rise of water generated by a storm's winds and can travel several miles inland. This hazard is historically the leading cause of hurricane related deaths in the United States. ● Flooding: Tropical systems bring heavy rain, and freshwater flooding is the second leading cause of fatalities from landfalling systems. Torrential rainfall often spreads hundreds of miles inland and can persist for several days after a storm has dissipated. ● Wind: Strong winds are what many people are thinking about when they hear of a hurricane approaching their area. Winds from a hurricane can destroy buildings and manufactured homes. Often debris from damaged buildings and other items left outside can become flying missiles and do more damage. ● Tornadoes: These often accompany landfalling tropical cyclones, and like flooding, can occur well away from the center of the storm. ● Waves and Rip Currents: Strong winds produce dangerous waves will a system is over the water, and these waves can pose a significant hazard to coastal residents and mariners. Often, deadly rip currents and significant beach erosion occur when a storm is thousands of miles offshore.

You can help mitigate you and your household’s vulnerability to hurricanes as well as your ability to recover by considering a few things BEFORE a storm threatens.

● Do you live in an evacuation zone or is your home vulnerable to other tropical hazards? ● Develop a basic household Emergency Kit ● Write or review your Household Emergency Plan, and don’t forget about pets and those who may have chronic illnesses or other special considerations ● Review Your Insurance Policies ● Know how to receive and understand NWS forecast products

The 2021/2022 Dry Season turned out wetter than normal for the east coast metro areas as well as over the far southern Everglades and parts of Big Cypress National Preserve. Drier than normal conditions were observed in western Collier County, Western Palm Beach County, Hendry County and Glades County.

The remainder of the 2022 Wet season calls for a near normal season. This of course is HIGHLY DEPENDANT on any local tropical activity. The typical average rainfall throughout the wet season ( May through October) ranges from: -35 to 40 inches across Southwest Florida -40 to 45 inches across the East Coast Metro Areas -30 to 40 inches across the Atlantic Beaches

The typical Wet season has three phases. The first phase runs from the middle of May through Early July. This is the stormiest phase with the highest frequency of severe thunderstorms. The second phase runs from early July thorugh the middle of August. This is the hottest time of year with some dry periods mixed in. The third phase runs from late August through the middle of October. This phase is highly variable in regards to the amount of precipitation received due to tropical systems as well as early Dry Season fronts coming into the area.