Risk Analysis

"The possibility of something bad happening at some time in the future; a situation that could be dangerous or have a bad result"  _{Oxford Dictionary} 

"A combination of the likelihood and consequences of hazardous events"  _{National Fire Chiefs Council (NFCC)} 

To analyse risk we look at the likelihood of a hazardous event occurring, and what/who in the area would be considered vulnerable and in danger if that event were to occur.

Lets look at an example of where maps can help with risk analysis. The maps are interactive so remember to zoom in and click on different features to find out more information.

Situation: It has been identified at Exeter Central train station that one of the trains has had quite a significant fuel leak. If the fuel was to come in to contact with something hot it could ignite and create an intense fire.

We need to understand what and who are within the local area to the train station that could be negatively impacted or harmed by the fuel leak or fire.

Lets identify the train station site, and a 1km buffer which we will consider our risk zone.

Who are within the 1km risk zone that we could consider to be potentially vulnerable if a fire was to occur?

What commercial or critical infrastructure is within the 1km risk zone that we could consider to be negatively impacted if a fire was to occur?

What environmental receptors are there within our 1km risk zone that are potentially vulnerable if a fuel leak or a fire were to occur?

We not only need to consider the particular habitat that is within our risk zone, but things like whether there are protected environmental sites, the geology, and the hydrogeology that could be negatively affected by the fuel leak or the fire.

All this information can be checked on DeFRA's MAGIC web mapping application.

Below is an example of the search for any sites that have been designated for environmental protection.

Where are the access/egress points for the vulnerable sites, and what pathways are there available for evacuation routes?

As you can see from this example geospatial analysis is a good desktop tool for understanding risk, and can support more detailed assessment to inform contingency plans.

This story map has been created using the following data:

• OS NGD Address - GB Address - Built Address
• OS NGD Land Use - Land Use Features - Site and Site Access Location
• OS NGD Structures - Structure Features
• OS NGD Water - Water Features
• OS NGD Transport - Transport Features - Road Track or Path
• OS NGD Transport - Transport Network - Road
• OS NGD Land - Land Features - Land

Further detail about these can be found on the   OS website product   pages.

The logo in the top left of this story map will take you to the main OS website homepage.

More story map examples like this once can be found in the   More Than Maps   site.