Tropical Winds Newsletter

Eta a rare November surprise for South Florida and the Keys

By: Sammy Hadi, Meteorologist

Now that the water has receded and the cleanup is underway, let's take a closer look at Eta's track as well as how rare of an event a landfalling tropical cyclone is for our area in November. Looking at the historical hurricanes database, before Eta made landfall in Lower Matecumbe Key on November 8th, there have only been five tropical cyclones landfalls since 1850 within 100 miles of Miami. This is largely due to decreasing sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic waters during the month of November, as well as synoptic patterns such as troughs that tend to pull any system out of the Caribbean towards the east of South Florida. These synoptic systems played an important role in the weird and curvy track of Eta, allowing for one of the most unique and memorable tracks in recent history. Eta formed as a Tropical Depression in the Western Caribbean on October 31st 2020, and began to feel the influence of a strong ridge just to the north. 

As a strong ridge began to build in, Eta was steered into Central America as a powerful Major Hurricane that caused widespread flooding and landslides over Nicaragua and Honduras. Eta quickly weakened over the terrain of Central America, and became a Tropical Depression as it was passing through the interior portions of Honduras. While passing over Central America, Eta was captured by an upper level low that moved southeastward into the Gulf of Mexico, this acted to pull Eta into the Caribbean. This upper level low pulled Eta towards the northeast, north, northwest, and then into the Florida Keys and South Florida. Eta made landfall at Lower Matecumbe Key during the late evening hours of Sunday, November 8th as a Tropical Storm with winds of 65mph. Although the center of Eta made landfall in the Florida Keys, impacts were felt far from the center in South Florida. Broward County had a rainfall event that would be classified as a once in a 100 year event. Eta brought upwards of 15" of rain to portions of Broward County, and 50-60mph gusts across South Florida and the Keys, as well as heavy surf and coastal erosion at area beaches. 

As Eta continued to rotate around the upper level low, it began to move towards the west and then the southwest, which allowed Eta to travel towards the western tip of Cuba. After stalling just offshore of the Western coast of Cuba, a large trough passing over the Central United States pulled Eta north northeast towards the western coast of Florida. The western counties of South Florida began to experience gusty winds, coastal inundation, and the threat of tropical tornadoes as Eta continued on its journey north. Eta went on to make a final landfall at Cedar Key on the morning of November 12th as a 50mph Tropical Storm. Eta crossed over the Florida Peninsula and transitioned to an extratropical cyclone just offshore of South Carolina on November 13th, the winding and harrowing journey of Eta finally came to an end.

Meteorology and Aviation: Two Peas in the Same Pod

By: Paxton Fell

The National Weather Service (NWS) provides the aviation community with weather information that is critical for aviation operations and planning. You can not have successful and safe aviation operations without weather forecasting. So, what are these crucial weather elements? Well, they include wind speed and direction, visibility, cloud coverage and heights, precipitation, and wind shear. This information is important because airlines/aviation industry have questions they need to answer; i.e. is there enough fuel on board for ALL possible weather contingencies? Is there too much fuel on board for phantom weather? When meteorologists forecast flight restrictions at the airport (i.e. thunderstorms), exact timing and type of storm to be within 5 miles of the airport and associated flight category is crucial information to the pilots, air traffic controllers, and overall general safety of the aircraft.

Pilots, the FAA, private and commercial airlines, airports, control towers, and flight clubs all have one thing in common… they rely on aviation weather forecasts from the NWS as a reliable resource for information and planning purposes. NWS meteorologists from 122 offices issue aviation forecasts for approximately 3,362 airports. In addition to the NWS, the U.S. Air Force employs active duty personnel to create forecasts for military airfields

Local NWS offices write Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs) on a routine basis along with scheduled and unscheduled amendments. For the Miami WFO, TAFs are issued for seven airports across South Florida, including: Miami, Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood, Palm Beach, and Naples. An aviation discussion is also issued four times a day. Aside from the NWS, there are a few other NOAA entities to obtain weather information for aviation purposes: The Center Weather Service Unit (CWSU) and the Aviation Weather Center (AWC). 

The most frequent weather phenomena to the aviation community are thunderstorms. Thunderstorms cause fatalities and severe injuries at a cost of approximately $8.1 million per year, with convection responsible for 40% delay of costs: $840 – $920 million per year. For South Florida, thunderstorms occur almost every day during the wet season (May 15 – October 15). Other weather phenomena affecting South Florida include: Tropical Systems (June 1 – November 30), sea breeze, waterspouts, fog, and tornadoes/funnel clouds.

Winter is the perfect time to garden in South Florida!

By: Sammy Hadi, Meteorologist

Now that the rainy season has come to an end, and dry and seasonal conditions have returned to South Florida, it is a perfect time to plant in your garden. The  UF IFAS Extension South Florida Gardening Calendar  suggests the following plants in your backyard for January and February; Annuals, Bulbs, Herbs (such as thyme, dill, fennel, and mint), and Vegetables.  It’s also important to remember to bring in sensitive plants such as orchids if a frost or freeze is forecast for your area. Be sure to water and cover sensitive plants in your garden, 12-24 hours before a freeze or frost is forecast. 

The 3rd Friday of January is when  Florida Arbor Day  is celebrated annually. Be sure to be on the lookout for any Arbor Day events your community or neighborhood may have.

Remainder of 2020/2021 Dry Season Outlook

By Rob Molleda, Warning Coordination Meteorologist

 La Niña conditions are likely to persist  through the dry season. La Niña is the cold phase of the  ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) . La Niña winters are typically characterized by a jet stream which is displaced farther north over North America, leading to most winter and spring low pressure storm tracks staying north of Florida. This normally causes cold fronts moving into Florida to have less moisture, thereby leading to drier than normal conditions as well as decreased “storminess” (tornado, severe thunderstorm and flood events). The jet stream being farther north can also limit the number of cold air outbreaks into Florida, although a few strong outbreaks of Arctic origin can still occur with freezing temperatures primarily over interior sections of the peninsula. The impact of freezing temperatures and associated impacts can be magnified due to lower sensitivity to colder temperatures during an otherwise warm winter.

A warmer and drier than normal winter and dry season decreases the likelihood and frequency of severe weather events such as tornadoes, flooding, strong winds and hail, but does not totally eliminate them. During the La Niña of 2016-2017, 3 tornadoes were observed in SE Florida (January and March). Also, as noted previously, a few strong cold snaps and freezes typically occur during La Niña winters even though the average temperatures over an extended period may be warmer than normal. 

2020 Rainy Season Summary

By: Rob Molleda, Warning Coordination Meteorologist

Moderate to severe spring drought conditions ended with copious rainfall over 2-week period from May 15th through the 29th. The disturbance that become Arthur, along with low pressure in Gulf, led to most areas receiving over 10 inches of rain during this period, resulting in flooding. Relatively dry June and first part of July renewed abnormally dry conditions across SW Florida. Despite indirect tropical impacts from Isaias and Laura, August remained slightly on the drier side. TS Sally and a couple of weak fronts contributed to a wet September, with the wet pattern lingering into October. The 2020 Rainy season was the 3rd wettest rainy season on record at Ft Lauderdale, 7th wettest at Miami International Airport and it was the 17th DRIEST in Naples

There have been several additions to the staff at WFO Miami. Meet all the current staff members by clicking on the story map to the right and scroll down.