People

This section summarises the key evidence in relation to the four strategic programmes focused on raising employment, education and skills as set out in the Black Country SEP.

Despite progress in recent years, challenges still remain and over the last year the COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant disruption to health and also to the education system, transitions into employment, workplace training, skills development and skills deployment.

With effective COVID-19 recovery and the rollout of the vaccine programme, we will be able to build back better; this requires us to unlock resources, help traditional sectors increase productivity, uncover innovation, and match evolving talent needs. 

• In 2019, there were 1,198,881 residents in the Black Country, we expect to reach the 2033 target of 1.2m residents in 2020.
• At the LEP level, the Black Country is the second highest across all the LEPs for the percentage of people aged 0 – 15 years old, at 21.3%.

• Due to COVID-19, local school performance data will not be published, 2018/19 data shows the average Progress 8 score for the Black Country was -0.12 compared to -0.03 nationally.
• The average Attainment 8 score for all state funded schools in the Black Country increased from 43.1 in 2018 to 43.8 in 2019.

• In the Black Country, NVQ Level 4+ qualifications increased by 16.8% (+30,300) over the year to 210,600 people (from 180,300 in 2019) compared to a national increase of 7.2%. This means that for 2020, 28.8% of the working age population in the Black Country were educated to NVQ4+ levels. Despite this positive improvement, a further 102,011 of working age Black Country residents are required to obtain NVQ4+ qualifications to equal the national average (42.8%).
• The number of people with no qualifications decreased from 121,800 in 2019 to 91,600 in 2020. This equates to 30,200 fewer people with no qualifications or a decrease of 24.8% compared to a national decrease of 17.0%. There were still over twice as many people in the Black Country (12.5%) with no qualifications when compared to the national average (6.2%). To eradicate the gap with the national average, a further 46,315 of working age Black Country residents are needed to obtain at least one qualification.

• There were 8,160 apprenticeship starts in 2019/20 across the Black Country area, 2,140 fewer than in 2018/19. This equates to a decrease of 20.8%. This fall in starts is similar to the one recorded at the national level (-18.0%).

• In the Black Country there were 444,000 jobs in 2019, this is a decrease of 1.3% (-6,000 jobs) from 2018. There were 26,307,000 jobs nationally in 2019, an increase of 1.4% from 2018.
• The Black Country has a higher percentage of jobs in 6 sectors when compared to nationally, examples include; advanced manufacturing (15.5% vs 10.5%), health (15.5% vs 12.9%) and retail (18.8% vs 15.1%). 

• Full-time earnings for Black Country Residents rose by £1,505 to £27,839 in April 2020. This was an increase of 5.7% compared to the national increase of 3.5% since 2019. However, Black Country Residents earn £3,927 less than the England average (£31,766).
• In 2020, the employment rate in the Black Country was 71.9%, compared to 75.7% England wide. This has increased by 1.5pp compared to a 0.3pp decrease nationally since 2019. 

• The Black Country had 67,375 claimants in March 2021, an increase of 315 claimants (+0.5%) from February 2021; the UK also increased by 0.5% over this period. The Black Country now has 29,100 more claimants since March 2020. This is an increase of 76.0%, while the UK increased by 112.3%. 
• In March 2021, there were 13,765 youth claimants in the Black Country, an increase of 1.4% (+190) from February 2021, while for the UK there was an increase of 1.2%. The Black Country has 6,015 more youth claimants compared to March 2020. This is an increase of 77.6%, while the UK increased by 113.4%.

• The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant disruption to the education system, transitions into employment, workplace training, skills development and skills deployment. More positively, demand is again beginning to increase across all Black Country priority sectors – with a notable rebound in both construction and advanced manufacturing.

• Overall deprivation is high in the Black Country with 19.1% of its areas in the 10% most deprived in England.
• In the Black Country the average life expectancy was 77.9 years for males and 82.0 years for females, which is below the national average (79.8 years and 83.4 years respectively) between 2017-2019.
• Overall, for the Black Country area, 35.2% (60,000) of children and young people were classed as less active (less than an average of 30 minutes a day) in the academic year of 2019/20.
• Overall, for the Black Country area, 36.5% of adults (343,900) were classed as inactive which has increased by 2.3pp since November 2018/19. Nationally there was an average 27.1% of adults classed as inactive, an increase of 2.6pp. To reach the national level percentage of inactivity would require the Black Country to reduce by 87,861 that are classed as inactive.  
• In 2019/20 there was 42.8% (5,205) of year 6 children that were overweight (Inc. obesity), compared to 35.2% nationally.

The mid-year 2019 population estimates show that there were 1,198,881 residents in the Black Country area, an increase of 0.5% (+5,491 people) from the mid-year 2018 population estimate, slightly below the England average growth of 0.6%. The Black Country population is expected to reach the 2033 target of 1.2m residents in 2020. In the Black Country there were 592,437 males (49.4% of total population) and 604,444 females (50.6%) in 2019. -

At the LEP level, the Black Country is the second highest across all the LEPs for the percentage of people aged 0 – 15 years old, at 21.3%. This share is second only to the Thames Valley Berkshire LEP (21.6%), with the Black Country above the England average of 19.2%.

The Black Country is the 18th highest LEP for the percentage of people aged 16 – 64 years old with 61.3%, below the England average of 62.4%. 

Across all LEPs, the Black Country is the 7th lowest for the percentage of people aged 65 years old and over, at 17.4%, and below the England average of 18.4%.  

The 2011 census shows that the Black Country had a Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) population of 22.9%, which is above the national BAME proportion of 14.6%.

In response to COVID-19 schools were closed in March 2020 and the  government announced  that all exams due to take place in schools in England in summer 2020 were cancelled and that it will not publish any school level educational performance data based on tests, assessments or exams for 2020.

However, nationally results are available for 2019/20 and there have been record-breaking results for GCSEs with 25.9% of students awarded grade 7 or higher (under the old system is equal to an A or A*) compared to 20.7% for 2018/19. Pass rates for students achieving grade 4 or above have increased from 67.1% in 2018/19 to 76% in 2019/20.

In 2018/19, the percentage of pupils at the end of Key Stage 4 who achieved grade 5 or above in English and mathematics remained at 35% in the Black Country. Ebacc (English Baccalaureate) entry rate has increased by 3 percentage points to 33%. The Ebacc average point score increased by 0.09 from 2017/18 to reach 3.66 in 2019/20.

Progress 8 is designed to measure how well pupils progress between the end of primary school and the end of secondary school. The score for each pupil is based on whether their actual grades are higher or lower than those achieved by pupils who had similar attainment. Results are classified as: Well Above Average, Above Average, Average, Below Average and Well Below Average.

The latest available data (2018/19) shows the average Progress 8 score for the Black Country was -0.12 compared to -0.03 nationally. The Black Country Progress 8 Score had improved from 2017/18 where it was -0.18 while nationally the score was -0.02. In 2018/19 Wolverhampton was rated as ‘Average’; while Dudley, Sandwell and Walsall were deemed ‘Below Average’. 

There are 30 schools rated above the national average for Progress 8 in the Black Country in 2019 compared to 29 in 2018. Conversely, 56 schools were rated below in 2018 compared to 53 in 2019.

Attainment 8 measures a student's average grade across eight subjects – the same subjects that count towards Progress 8. This measure is designed to encourage schools to offer a broad, well-balanced curriculum.

The average Attainment 8 score for all state funded schools in the Black Country increased from 43.1 in 2018 to 43.8 in 2019. An increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to 0.2 percentage points nationally. All four local authority areas increased their average Attainment 8 score. Wolverhampton (45.1) remains closet to the national average (46.7). 

Analysis shows that the attainment gap between disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged pupils in the Black Country was 7.8 points.

The pandemic, along with schools and business closures, proved to be challenging but ever more vital, for the delivery of careers education in schools and colleges. Across the Black Country 114 Schools & Colleges including SEND and Alternative Provision continued to engage with the Black Country Enterprise Adviser Network and the Black Country Careers Hub and delivered their programmes virtually with the support of local business volunteers. 

102 Volunteers from the World of Work engaged in each term with 96 Schools & Colleges through the Black Country Enterprise Adviser Network, this supported 78% of all Black Country Secondary Schools & Colleges to provide virtual meaningful encounters with employers and employees to all year groups (7-13). Attendance at the Career Hub virtual events as been exceptional with over 21,000 young people and parents accessing the learning. 

This is reflected in the Gatsby Benchmarks, where the Black Country continues to perform strongly against national comparators, particularly regarding the use of Labour Market Information with pupils and parents, meaningful encounters with employers and employees and the individual guidance for young people.  Further details on Labour Market Information is located  here  .

In the Black Country, NVQ Level 4+ qualifications increased by 16.8% (+30,300) over the year to 210,600 people (from 180,300 in 2019) compared to a national increase of 7.2%. This means that for 2020, 28.8% of the working age population in the Black Country were educated to NVQ4+ levels. Despite this positive improvement, a further 102,011 of working age Black Country residents are required to obtain NVQ Level 4 or above qualification to equal the national average (42.8%).

In the Black Country, 25.9% (95,500) of males had NVQ4+ qualifications compared to 40.5% of males nationally in 2020. When compared to 2019, the Black Country increased by 14.6% (+12,200 males) while nationally there was an increase of 7.7%.

In the Black Country, 31.8% (115,100) of females had NVQ4+ qualifications compared to 45.0% of females nationally in 2020. When compared to 2019, the Black Country increased by 18.7% (+18,100 females) while nationally there was an increase of 6.8%.

The number of people with no qualifications decreased from 121,800 in 2019 to 91,600 in 2020. This equates to 30,200 fewer people with no qualifications or a decrease of 24.8% compared to a national decrease of 17.0%. There were still over twice as many people in the Black Country (12.5%) with no qualifications when compared to the national average (6.2%). To eradicate the gap with the national average, a further 46,315 of working age Black Country residents are needed to obtain at least one qualification.

In the Black Country, 13.2% (48,500) of males had no qualifications compared to 6.7% of males nationally in 2020. When compared to 2019, the Black Country decreased by 23.0% (-14,500 males) while nationally there was a decrease of 15.9%.

In the Black Country, 11.9% (43,000) of females had no qualifications compared to 5.0% of females nationally in 2020. When compared to 2019, the Black Country decreased by 27.0% (-15,900 females) while nationally there was a decrease of 18.1%.

Summary of Overall Qualification Levels:

There were 8,160 apprenticeship starts in 2019/20 across the Black Country area, 2,140 fewer than in 2018/19. This equates to a decrease of 20.8%. This fall in starts is similar to the one recorded at the national level, where the number of people participating in an apprenticeship in England, decreased by 18.0% from 393,400 to 322,500.

To reach the Black Country's ambition of 23,000 apprenticeship starts by 2033 requires an additional 14,840 starts.

Final 2019/20 figures show Higher apprenticeship (level 4+) starts reached their highest volume, increasing by 13.4% to 2,030. Higher apprenticeships now represent almost a quarter of all starts (24.9%). Conversely, both Intermediate apprenticeships and Advanced apprenticeships fell by over a third (34.3%) and 22.4% respectively, mirroring national trends. 

Business, Administration and Law-related subjects continue to be the single most popular sector subject area, accounting for 31.7% of starts (2,590). 

Females accounted for 51.4% (4,190 starts), above the national average of 48.8%.

Apprentices aged under 19 account for 22.2% (1,810) in the Black Country, below the national average of 23.6%. 19 to 24-year-olds account for 30.0% (2,450), slightly above the national average of 29.5%. Apprentices aged 25 and over account for 47.9% (3,910) above the national average of 46.8%. The percentage share of apprentices aged 25+ has increased by 8.5 percentage points since 2017/18. 

Black, Asian, and other ethnic minorities (BAME) represent 23.9% (1,950) of all starts, significantly above the national average of 13.3%.

In the Black Country there were 444,000 jobs in 2019, this is a decrease of 1.3% (-6,000 jobs) from 2018. There were around 293,000 (66.0%) full-time employees and 151,000 part-time employees (34%). The proportion of part-time employees have increased from 32% (144,000) in 2018.

There were 26,307,000 jobs nationally in 2019, an increase of 1.4% from 2018. Around 68% of employees work full-time and 32% are part-time which are similar to proportions seen in 2018. 

The sector with the highest number of job in the Black Country was in retail at 83,500, this was followed by business services at 71,290 jobs in 2019. The Black Country has a higher percentage of jobs in 6 sectors when compared to nationally; advanced manufacturing (15.5% vs 10.5%), environmental technologies (1.3% vs 1.1%), transport technologies (6.4% vs 5.0%), health (15.5% vs 12.9%), building technologies (4.9% vs 4.8%) and retail (18.8% vs 15.1%). 

For the Black Country in 2020, there were 40.4% (216,400) knowledge workers. An increase of 15.0% (+28,300) compared to an increase of 5.5% nationally since 2019. Although, for the Black Country to reach the national average of 50.6%, the Black Country needs an additional 54,676 knowledge workers. 

Average full-time earnings for Black Country Residents rose by £1,505 to £27,839 in April 2020. This was an increase of 5.7% compared to the national increase of 3.5% since 2019. While full-time workplace annual earnings in the Black Country were £28,523, an increase of £1,566 (+5.8% compared to +3.5% nationally) since 2019.

Black Country Residents earn £3,927 less than the England average (£31,766). Resident Earnings stood at 88% of the England average. Workplace earnings in the Black Country were £3,254 less than the England average (£31,777).

Full-time earnings for Black Country male residents was £30,231 in April 2020. An increase of 6.8% (+£1,935) compared to an increase of 3.1% nationally. Although, Black Country male residents earn £4,094 less than the national male average (£34,325).

Like the national average, full time-earnings for Black Country females was lower than full-time male earnings. Full time-earnings for Black Country females was £24,700 in April 2020. An increase of 5.0% (+£1,176) compared to an increase of 4.0% nationally. Black Country female residents earn £3,390 less than the national female average (£28,090).

The COVID-19 crisis will impact on the economy for years to come with disruptions affecting the workforce across all sectors. While people in critical sectors such as healthcare are overburdened with work, others in sectors such as hospitality are struggling.

Over the last year, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant disruption to the education system, transitions into employment, workplace training, skills development and skills deployment. More positively, demand is again beginning to increase across all Black Country priority sectors – with a notable rebound in both construction and advanced manufacturing. These sectors are now back above pre-pandemic/lockdown levels with demand higher than at the same comparable point in 2019; and given the nature of the pandemic there has also been significant growth in both health and care and transport technologies. The graph below highlights the change in skill demand over the last 12 months: 

The graph below highlights the change in top occupations over the last 12 months: 

The Digital Skills Plan located  here  outlines the ambitions that the Black Country has in the digital economy, putting forward an action plan for how goals will be met.

The Black Country Skills Evidence is located  here . The report aims to provide a collated response to the analytical standards identified from the evidence gathered across the first three stages of the Skills Advisory Panel (SAP) process. The report will follow the SAP Stage 4 framework to identify the skills gaps present in the Black Country and their causes, and understand whether learner provision and business development will potentially meet the demand for skilled workers.

Further work has been undertaken to create an interactive  dashboard  to support the requirements outlined for the development of Skills Advisory Panels (SAPs)  Skills advisory panels analytical toolkits .

The Black Country Sector Skills Deep Dives are located  here .

Overall deprivation is high in the Black Country with 19.1% of its areas in the 10% most deprived in England (ranking the Black Country LEP as 7th most deprived out of the 38 LEP’s). In 2015 the Black Country had less areas in the 10% most deprived in England with 18.7% - ranked at 6th most deprived out of the 39 LEP’s at this time.

46% of the Black Country areas are ranked in the 20% most deprived. Compared to 2015 results, the direction of travel has been negative for the Black Country. The proportion of output areas in the top 20% most deprived in the country has increased by 3pp.

In the Black Country the average life expectancy was 77.9 years for males and 82.0 years for females, which is below the national average (79.8 years and 83.4 years respectively) between 2017-2019.

Similar patterns can also be seen for the  average healthy life expectancy  compared to nationally for the Black Country which was 59.3 years for males and 59.8 years for females (nationally 63.2 years and 63.5 years respectively) in 2017-2019. Although when compared to 2016-18, the Black Country area increased by 1.4 years for males and by 1.9 years for females while nationally there was a decreases of 0.2 years for males and by 0.4 years for females.

Active Lives Children and Young People 

The academic year of 2019/2020 has been disrupted by COVID-19 where there were school closures and the cancellation of many activities.

Overall, for the Black Country area, 35.2% (60,000) of children and young people were classed as less active (less than an average of 30 minutes a day) in the academic year of 2019/20, this has increased by 1.1pp when compared to the 2018/19 academic year. Nationally there were 31.3% of children and young people classed as less active which increased by 2.3pp since the 2018/19 academic year. For the Black Country to reach the national less active percentage of 33.1%, requires 6,520 less children and young people to be classed as less active. 

Active Lives Adult Survey

The following analysis covers the first eight months of coronavirus (COVID-19) restrictions, from mid-March to mid-November 2020. 

Inactive Levels

Overall, for the Black Country area, 36.5% of adults (343,900) were classed as inactive (less than 30 minutes a week) which has increased by 2.3pp since November 2018/19. Nationally there was an average 27.1% of adults classed as inactive, an increase of 2.6pp. To reach the national level percentage of inactivity would require the Black Country to reduce by 87,861 that are classed as inactive.  

Volunteering

The frequency of volunteering to support sport and physical activity for the Black Country Active Partnership was highest at 4.0% for ‘once or as a once off activity in the last 12 months’ (which was below the national average of 4.6%) and also those who volunteered ‘once a week or more throughout the year’ (which again was below the national average of 4.9%).

Insight Hub

The  Insight Hub  for the Black Country offers data, intelligence into physical activity levels and participation in sport, alongside understanding of key trends influencing behaviours across the Black Country. The hub aims to introduce practical information to help partners identify opportunities to get people active and make connections to facilitate physical activity across the Black Country. This resource describes and defines an urban active environment, displaying the connectivity between the place, stakeholders and the opportunities to get people active.

In 2019/20 there was 42.8% (5,205) of year 6 children that were overweight (Inc. obesity), compared to 35.2% nationally. This was a 1.1 percentage point increase which reflects national trends where there was an increase of 0.9 percentage points since 2018/19.

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